AA Rankings for 1/23/11

[karl(east)]

It was another week of mayhem in the AA rankings, and once again the teams have been shaken up and left in a convoluted mess. Insanity has become predictable. You should find plenty of things to question or argue about this time around, unless you’d rather just throw up your hands and wait for sections, which I’d understand. But I think the rankings can still give us some ideas of where things are going, and I hope a few of my comments offer something unique and/or insightful.

1. Hill-Murray (12-3-1)
-Another team takes its turn at the top, and it’s another pick that could easily be criticized, with its three losses and tie and not-incredibly-difficult schedule. But I did not hesitate for a second with this pick, for a series of reasons:
1. While Hill may not be as flashy as some of the others, they lack obvious weaknesses. No other team can say that.
2. They are as deep as any team in the state, and unlike some other deep teams, gets a lot out of that depth. The balance across the board is unmatched.
3. They play strong team defense, and as the cliché says, defense wins championships.
4. The schedule may be weak, but that has not affected past Hill teams come playoff time. On the contrary, they tend to get much stronger as the season goes on.
5. They have avoided taking a poor loss, and should run the table from here.
That said, they do have a few loseable games. One is this week, against CSC rival St. Thomas. They also play STA a second time, and have to play Moorhead outdoors. If someone takes command of the Lake, their SOS may be enough to vault that team back into the top spot. But at this point, Hill has by far the most comfortable position of any team in AA.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Mahtomedi

2. Eden Prairie (10-4-1)
-This seems high, especially for a team that hasn’t won in its past three games. But there’s just no one with a good case for this spot…Wayzata couldn’t beat them at home, even though EP lacked Molenaar; I’m skeptical of Benilde; Duluth East had a rough week; Tonka is on the rise but not there yet…in the end, EP’s maintained a high standard throughout. The last 11 teams they’ve played are currently ranked, so I suspect they’re gassed. For now, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, though another slip-up will cost them. Although they do have two unranked opponents, it’s still not a particularly easy week, as they get a pair of teams that have taken big steps forward in recent weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Thurs vs. #6 Minnetonka, Sat at Hopkins

3. Wayzata (13-3-1)
-Strong start to their Lake season as they knock off Edina (sans Lucia) for the fifth straight time, and forced a tie against Eden Prairie. Since BSM has lost to both those teams, they get the nod for the 3-spot, despite the fact that their losses are a bit weaker than those of the other top-flight teams. They’ve put to rest some, but certainly not all, of my doubts about them. There’s no rest for the weary, though, as they take on two more top-10 teams this week.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Burnsville, Sat at #6 Minnetonka

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-2)
-The dismantling of Totino-Grace is a good sign, and clears up any miniscule doubts there may have been about the NSC. Again, they’re tough to rank in relation to everyone else; they have that win over Hill, but that was a long time ago, and the win over Tonka looks better now, but on the other hand, now that EP and Edina have been proven very mortal, their losses don’t look as great as they once did. They depart from the NSC this week to play an adequate Osseo squad, then have an interesting test against an improving Holy Angels team.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Sat at #12 Holy Angels

5. Duluth East (13-3)
-Followed up their finest week of the season with a flat one, in which they fell in Apple Valley and had some trouble with St. Cloud Tech, proving just how narrow a tightrope teams have to walk this year to do well. For me to have confidence in them going down the stretch, they’ll need to get their swagger back, and the Forest Lake game will be an interesting game to watch in that regard--will they seize control, or muck around for a few periods as they have been lately? After that, they have a match-up with Maple Grove that could prove pivotal in the race for state tournament seeding, though both teams would be getting ahead of themselves if they’re focusing on that at this point.
This week: Tues vs. Forest Lake, Sat vs. #9 Maple Grove

6. Minnetonka (12-3-1)
-The rankings may not show any movement between last week and this, but my opinion of the Skippers definitely shot up--their balanced lines and team defense made short work of Edina, and left me very impressed. They are now cemented amongst the state’s top teams. That’s little consolation, though, as they head into the biggest week of their season, playing both EP and Wayzata. Not only are they important in the Lake, they will also make a big difference in the section seeding (whatever that’s worth, with 4 elite teams in the section).
This week: Thurs at #2 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata

7. Edina (9-4-2)
-Is this just the Hornets’ annual late January swoon, or is their 0-2 start to the Lake season a sign of trouble? They’ve been walking a very fine line all year; many took that to be a sign of their experience and ability to win close games. But we also should probably entertain the thought that they’re not quite as good as we think. The goaltending’s been sloppy, and for all the depth in the program, they look a little thin at times; they did not have good finishes to either of their games this past week, which is worrisome. The good news: they have a nice breather week, and should be able to rattle off three straight wins before going back to Lake challenges. We’ll see if that gets them back on track.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. Totino-Grace

8. Burnsville (11-2-2)
-Took command of the SSC this past week with wins over Eagan and Lakeville South. Nothing’s coming easy, but they keep on putting points on the board, and Edina’s struggles have to encourage them. Face one last huge non-conference test on Tuesday in Wayzata before playing to SSC cellar dwellers.
This week: Tues at #3 Wayzata, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview

9. Maple Grove (12-3-1)
-Continued their cruise through the NWSC, and have now won six straight. The upcoming week is a huge one, though; for all the hype they still have to prove they can beat five-time defending section champion Blaine, and from a rankings perspective the trip up to Duluth on Saturday is also very big.
This week: Mon vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong, Thurs at Blaine, Sat at #5 Duluth East

10. Bemidji (16-1-1)
-It’s still hard to say how high up we should let Bemidji go with their schedule. But a win over previously unbeaten Hermantown is a very good sign, especially after what the Hawks did to Grand Rapids. Now the Lumberjacks go visit GR themselves, which should either confirm their placement up here or send them dropping some. The rest of the state has been so inconsistent that I’m willing to take a shot with this team.
This week: Tues at #13 Grand Rapids, Sat at Alexandria

11. Moorhead (11-4-1)
-Seem to be on a roll now, which is bad news for the rest of 8AA. The week ahead is a big one, as they try to avenge that loss to Roseau, which is really hurting their seeding chances at the moment. They also host a surging Centennial team in what could be a very good game--and this week is only the warm-up act for a very difficult closing stanza to their season.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Thurs at Brainerd, Sat vs. Centennial

12. Holy Angels (10-5)
-Picked up a huge win over Eden Prairie, then beat New Prague by a similar margin the next night. All in all their credentials are very similar to Moorhead’s; I’ve given the Spuds the bump for now since they seem a bit more steady. Still, after the slow start, it’s hard not to be impressed with the Stars’ recent surge. Get a chance to put an exclamation point on it all with a contest against Benilde.
This week: Mon at Red Wing, Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat vs. #4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

13. Grand Rapids (13-3-1)
-Got a couple of narrow wins against northeastern rivals this past week; the drop in the rankings is due to Bemidji’s win over a common opponent, Hermantown. But the T-hawks, who’ve been sliding backwards in the rankings of late, have a fine opportunity to jump back up again with a game against Bemidji on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Bemidji, Fri at International Falls

14. Eagan (11-4-1)
-This feels harsh, but the rankings are crowded this year, and the Wildcats have to get their act together. The loss to Burnsville seriously damaged their chances at winning the conference, and the win over Prior Lake was a bit close for comfort, too. They play the Lakevilles this week, which will be an interesting bellwether; South is surging, and North beat Eagan in their first meeting.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Lakeville North

15. Apple Valley (12-5)
-Beating East was a good way to start getting back into the picture. They have some work to do to prove that win wasn’t just a flash in the pan, but I think they’ll be in good shape to make a run down the stretch. Should be okay this upcoming week, though they can’t get too nonchalant.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Prior Lake

Next in Line

White Bear Lake (11-4-1)
-Fall from the rankings through absolutely no fault of their own; the top group is just too crowded this year. It’s hard, but aside from the 1-loss Bemidji squad, every team in the top 15 has a win against another top-15 team, and WBL just doesn’t. All they can do is continue to pile up SEC wins, and the weak ahead looks pretty promising, with Park and East Ridge up next.

Lakeville South (7-5-2)
-Continue to look good lately, though they ultimately fell to Burnsville. Monster week ahead of them, with Eden Prairie and Eagan on the docket. A win over either should get them into the rankings.

Stillwater (10-4-1)
-Finally were able to beat Cretin, but perhaps more importantly, they edged Roseville. That win should lock up the 3-seed in 4AA, and with another meeting with White Bear Lake on the horizon, they still have a shot at the 2-seed. Play Woodbury and Forest Lake this week.

Cloquet (12-5)
-Played Grand Rapids closer than they did the first time around, which serves notice to the rest of the state; once again, they’re showing improvement and looking good down the stretch. Important LSC game against Marshall this week, along with a game against Andover that currently looks likely to be a preview of a 7AA quarterfinal.

Roseville (8-5-4)
-Second loss to Stillwater probably dooms them to the 4-seed and a semifinal meeting with Hill, though to their credit, they do a very good job of keeping games close. That’s about all they can hope for if things play out as we expect. Two beatable SEC opponents this week in Mounds View and Park.

Centennial (7-8-1)
-Building some momentum now that they’ve settled into the NWSC. The record is nasty, but the win over Blaine has them sitting pretty. Elk River and Moorhead ahead this week.

Blaine (11-3-3)
-In all honesty they should probably be higher than this, but I have a hard time putting them above the section rival that just beat them 5-0. They’re not going to get anywhere like that. Big week ahead that could make or break their season, as they re-match with Maple Grove and visit Elk River.

Roseau (7-7)
-Were idle this past week; now they have a big one, with road games against 8AA contenders Moorhead and St. Cloud Tech.

St. Cloud Tech (10-6-1)
-Potential 8AA wild-card; they’ve played a couple of the top teams out there pretty well. Play Brainerd and Roseau in the week ahead, which will be big for section seeding.

Osseo (10-5)
-Part of an awkward NWSC sequence; they beat Centennial, who crushed Blaine, who crushed Osseo. Overall they’re a bit weaker, but still in the 5AA picture. Big game against Benilde this week, plus a chance to avenge a bad loss to Andover.

That rounds out our top 25 for the time being. There are only 4 weeks left until sections, and with a handful of exceptions, the big races look wide open. So sit back, enjoy the madness, and we’ll try to make sense of it all again next Sunday.

[Gov78]

I was just about to post my $.02 and the top 7 are exactly what you have so I'm glad I kept my trap shut and left it to someone who does such a nice job.

[WBLHockeyfan04]

I myself was thinking about Hill Murray as the #1 seed. They never seem to play an off game, and they have so many underclassmen that contribute and only get better throughout the year. I expect them to be a top 2-3 seed at State and I expect them to be one of the final four teams left. (Hate to say it)

This year has been so crazy with literally 10-15 teams that could beat one another on any given night. I still think EP, Wayzata, and Hill Murray are a tier above the rest, but not by much. Ultimately the winner from 6AA will likely be the #1 seed at State. I think with all the parity that's going on this year, it'll make for some great section semi and final games!

[MGP103]

Spot on Karl, rankings are pretty much spot on for me. Only thing I have diffirent is Maple Grove and burnsville flip flopped but in the end its all the same. I love the detail u put into the rankings with each team, much appreciated. )

[mulefarm]

Like your top teams. Maple Grove is probably only team that shouln't be in top 10.

[MNpuckfanatic77]

These are good! I'd have to agree them, however I do find it a little bit interesting how Eden Prairie actually moved UP after an upset loss the other night...

[karl(east)]

These are good! I'd have to agree them, however I do find it a little bit interesting how Eden Prairie actually moved UP after an upset loss the other night...

I still had EP at #1 last week. They dropped a spot. I didn't jump on the Edina bandwagon the way the other rankings did. (Not that either team has looked great lately--which is interesting, since the two of them have played the hardest schedules in the state thus far.)

[HShockeywatcher]

These are good! I'd have to agree them, however I do find it a little bit interesting how Eden Prairie actually moved UP after an upset loss the other night...

I still had EP at #1 last week. They dropped a spot. I didn't jump on the Edina bandwagon the way the other rankings did. (Not that either team has looked great lately--which is interesting, since the two of them have played the hardest schedules in the state thus far.)

I think Holy Angels is quite low. I would have them at #8, right ahead of Burnsville.

Since their meeting, which Holy Angels won in OT;
Burnsville has beat your #14 by 1, lost to your #20 in OT, and lost to your #2 by 2. (1-2 against your top 20)
On the other hand, Holy Angels lost to your #7 by 1, your #6 in OT, your #1 by 5 and beat your #2. (1-3 against your top 7)

Bemidji is the only team between the Stars and the Blaze that I can justify being up there.

Great work, and I know how much time it takes, that's probably the only change I'd make.

[PuckU126]

I think its great karl(east) and HShockeywatcher do all of these rankings every Sunday with analysis.

Keep up the great work guys; great work and you're doing it for free!

[karl(east)]

Since their meeting, which Holy Angels won in OT;
Burnsville has beat your #14 by 1, lost to your #20 in OT, and lost to your #2 by 2. (1-2 against your top 20)

Burnsville didn't lose to Roseville. They tied them, and lost a shootout. I don't factor in shootouts, since they don't tell us anything about a team (to say nothing of the fact that the MSHSL doesn't count them).

Does that change your opinion on Burnsville? And how do you see AHA's achievements as better than Moorhead's?

[BringBackTheBraves11]

Since their meeting, which Holy Angels won in OT;
Burnsville has beat your #14 by 1, lost to your #20 in OT, and lost to your #2 by 2. (1-2 against your top 20)

Burnsville didn't lose to Roseville. They tied them, and lost a shootout. I don't factor in shootouts, since they don't tell us anything about a team (to say nothing of the fact that the MSHSL doesn't count them).

Does that change your opinion on Burnsville? And how do you see AHA's achievements as better than Moorhead's?

Not to mention that when they beat Eagan by one, it was both on the road and they were the underdogs.

[HShockeywatcher]

Since their meeting, which Holy Angels won in OT;
Burnsville has beat your #14 by 1, lost to your #20 in OT, and lost to your #2 by 2. (1-2 against your top 20)

Burnsville didn't lose to Roseville. They tied them, and lost a shootout. I don't factor in shootouts, since they don't tell us anything about a team (to say nothing of the fact that the MSHSL doesn't count them).

Does that change your opinion on Burnsville? And how do you see AHA's achievements as better than Moorhead's?

Not to mention that when they beat Eagan by one, it was both on the road and they were the underdogs.

Sorry, minnesota-scores tends to get minor things wrong.

That being said, changing all that analysis to ties your #20 isn't much different for a comparison between the two teams. I have nothing against Burnsville, but I don't believe there's any reason they should be above Holy Angels. The only reason would be their first game of the season. Take that game out and Holy Angels has the clear advantage, imo.

Don't say "not to mention" then mention something that has already been mentioned. Eagan is his #14, whom I said they beat. Being away and the "underdogs" is irrelevant to me.

Moorhead. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that they are a good team who has Wayzata's number. Being able to play well against a specific team isn't something you can quantify, but it happens. The Wayzata games aside, they got shut out by your #2, your #5 and in their only other quality game of the season, they lost by 2 to Tonka. Good team, for sure, beat all the teams worse than them, got beat by all [but one] of the good teams they played. (I'm not looking at the first 3 games of anyone's season)

Compared head to head:
Moorhead got shut out by EP (your #2), Holy Angels won.
Moorhead lost by 2 to Tonka (your #6), Holy Angels lost in OT.
Including their first 3 games, both lost to Roseau.
Clear nod to the Stars.

[karl(east)]

Moorhead. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that they are a good team who has Wayzata's number. Being able to play well against a specific team isn't something you can quantify, but it happens. The Wayzata games aside, they got shut out by your #2, your #5 and in their only other quality game of the season, they lost by 2 to Tonka. Good team, for sure, beat all the teams worse than them, got beat by all [but one] of the good teams they played. (I'm not looking at the first 3 games of anyone's season)

Compared head to head:
Moorhead got shut out by EP (your #2), Holy Angels won.
Moorhead lost by 2 to Tonka (your #6), Holy Angels lost in OT.
Including their first 3 games, both lost to Roseau.
Clear nod to the Stars.

I just can't agree with ignoring the first 3 games. That's a rather arbitrary cut-off; if we did it at 2 or 4 things would look different for both teams. Well early games should count for less, they should never be wiped off the board.

I look at it this way:
Moorhead has 2 wins over top-7 teams (the teams we can all agree should be at the top). They got Wayzata twice, but by a larger margin the second time around. AHA also has one (EP), plus another win over another great team (Burnsville)--though going by your logic we shouldn't think as much of the Burnsville win, since their only truly big win was early. But we'll get past that.

Each played a decent game against Minnetonka and lost. Each lost to Roseau, by the same score. Each lost to one AA power in a blowout (AHA to Hill, Moorhead to DE). Moorhead does have an additional loss to EP--a game they kept pretty close until the end--while AHA has one clunker loss to Elk River. Yes, it was early, but this is where the 3-game cutoff becomes arbitrary; AHA's loss to ER (in their 3rd game) was one day after Moorhead got hammered by DE in their 4th game of the season. I don't think you can accept one of those as a valid reflection of a team's ability, and throw out the other. Personally I will take them all into account, and no matter how you spin it, the loss to ER does not look good for AHA.

Moorhead also has that tie with Bemidji; it's hard to say whether that should be good or bad for their ranking. But since that tie is really the only good metric we have to measure Bemidji against other top teams, I don't see how you can say you're okay with Bemidji ahead of AHA, but not Moorhead. Combine all this with Moorhead's general consistency (3-4 goal wins over some pretty good A teams) and AHA's lack thereof (2 1-goal wins over Missota teams) is a mild worry.

Don't get me wrong--people are saying very good things about AHA, and they're definitely headed in the right direction. I think they have more front-line talent than the Spuds. But for now, they could use one more win of significance. As impressive as the EP win was, it's a bit late in the season to be losing ugly to Hill--I know Hill is good, but the gap at the top is not that big this year, and this to me looks like another hint of inconsistency.They could get that this Saturday against Benilde--it sure wouldn't shock me--and then we can talk about AHA as a lock for the top-10. But for now, I am not compelled. I can see why someone might edge the Stars a little higher, but I definitely do not think it is a "clear nod."

[TheClipper]

Karl,

I may disagree with your specific order, but you do a solid job of analysis, and you apply that criteria really well.

In my opinion, and they can be shuffled weekly, Edina, Eden Prairie, and Wayzata are the top teams in MN. You can throw darts to round out the rest.

[EHSHack]

Despite my bias, I think you have to keep East up there with those three. They lose by 1 to Wayzata (OT) and Edina (Backup Goalie) and beat EP. They are clearly one of the best in the state.

[HShockeywatcher]

Despite my bias, I think you have to keep East up there with those three. They lose by 1 to Wayzata (OT) and Edina (Backup Goalie) and beat EP. They are clearly one of the best in the state.

Ultimately, what it comes down to, imo, is your personal opinion. The top teams, even some of the lower teams, are a mess in AA in this:

-#1 lost to #2, #4 and #8, while beating #6, #7 and #12.

-#2 lost to #5, #7, #12 and #14 while beating #1, #4, #8, #9, #11, #13 and #15 and tying #3.

-#3 lost to #9 and #11 twice and beat #5, #7 twice, #9 #15, #20, #21 twice, #24 and tied #2.

The list goes on.

Class A is bad, but not like this. You could make an argument for any of the top 7 to be #1 right now.

[MGnosmirc21]

Great list Karl. I've been a lurker on this site for a while, but wanted to tell you to keep up the good work.