Final 2011 AA Rankings

[karl(east)]

Tomorrow.

...or mid-November...

There's a lot of research to do before then. Incoming bantams, graduations and early departures, transfers, advanced camps, Elite League...I'm going to pay attention to all of these things, at least to some degree.

Just playin'.

How about pre-preseason rankings then?

Ummm....

1. Duluth East.

There, now everyone can call me a homer an argue about that while I figure out who #2 is.

[PuckU126]

Ummm....

1. Duluth East.

There, now everyone can call me a homer an argue about that while I figure out who #2 is.

Thanks, Homer.

[bbad]

when will Karl's 2011-2012 preseason rankings come out?

Tomorrow.

...or mid-November...

There's a lot of research to do before then. Incoming bantams, graduations and early departures, transfers, advanced camps, Elite League...I'm going to pay attention to all of these things, at least to some degree.

Not knocken' you cuz I think you do a great job, but..... did you do that this year? You commented earlier about missing, Bemidji but they had a jv team full of talented kids moving up to varsity; I think that jv team only lost one game all year. Those boys also went to state as PeeWees and Bantams (both VFW and MN Hockey). So, did you miss that when looking at teams, or did you place so much emphasis on the history of the programs that they were disregarded? Just curious how the whole thought process goes. (By the way -- I'm fine with you counting out Bemidji next year as well. Let them fly under the radar. Let other teams think they are noone to contend with....that is just fine)

[EHSHack]

Well JV is HS Hockey is largely irrelevant. The majority of JV kids will never skate a regular shift on Varsity.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Tomorrow.

...or mid-November...

There's a lot of research to do before then. Incoming bantams, graduations and early departures, transfers, advanced camps, Elite League...I'm going to pay attention to all of these things, at least to some degree.

Not knocken' you cuz I think you do a great job, but..... did you do that this year? You commented earlier about missing, Bemidji but they had a jv team full of talented kids moving up to varsity; I think that jv team only lost one game all year. Those boys also went to state as PeeWees and Bantams (both VFW and MN Hockey). So, did you miss that when looking at teams, or did you place so much emphasis on the history of the programs that they were disregarded? Just curious how the whole thought process goes. (By the way -- I'm fine with you counting out Bemidji next year as well. Let them fly under the radar. Let other teams think they are noone to contend with....that is just fine)

bbad, its all about East here you need to learn to play along.

[karl(east)]

...or mid-November...

There's a lot of research to do before then. Incoming bantams, graduations and early departures, transfers, advanced camps, Elite League...I'm going to pay attention to all of these things, at least to some degree.

Not knocken' you cuz I think you do a great job, but..... did you do that this year? You commented earlier about missing, Bemidji but they had a jv team full of talented kids moving up to varsity; I think that jv team only lost one game all year. Those boys also went to state as PeeWees and Bantams (both VFW and MN Hockey). So, did you miss that when looking at teams, or did you place so much emphasis on the history of the programs that they were disregarded? Just curious how the whole thought process goes. (By the way -- I'm fine with you counting out Bemidji next year as well. Let them fly under the radar. Let other teams think they are noone to contend with....that is just fine)

bbad, its all about East here you need to learn to play along.

Naturally.

In response to the question:
-I don't look at JV; in general I don't think it is very relevant, plus it's hard to find good stats on JV.
-I do look at Bantams, though last year was the first year I looked at Bantams, so that obviously didn't take Bemidji's strong upperclassmen into account, as they weren't Bantams the previous year. Unless it is hiding somewhere, historical data on Bantams is also not readily available. Now that I am keeping track of these things, I hope to avoid those mistakes in the future.
-Bemidji also slipped through the cracks in part due to reputation, I admit that. I don't have time to study every single team, and for the most part the ones I don't look at aren't real contenders. But I'm bound to miss every now and then.

[bbad]

Well JV is HS Hockey is largely irrelevant. The majority of JV kids will never skate a regular shift on Varsity.

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

[bbad]

Not knocken' you cuz I think you do a great job, but..... did you do that this year? You commented earlier about missing, Bemidji but they had a jv team full of talented kids moving up to varsity; I think that jv team only lost one game all year. Those boys also went to state as PeeWees and Bantams (both VFW and MN Hockey). So, did you miss that when looking at teams, or did you place so much emphasis on the history of the programs that they were disregarded? Just curious how the whole thought process goes. (By the way -- I'm fine with you counting out Bemidji next year as well. Let them fly under the radar. Let other teams think they are noone to contend with....that is just fine)

bbad, its all about East here you need to learn to play along.

Naturally.

In response to the question:
-I don't look at JV; in general I don't think it is very relevant, plus it's hard to find good stats on JV.
-I do look at Bantams, though last year was the first year I looked at Bantams, so that obviously didn't take Bemidji's strong upperclassmen into account, as they weren't Bantams the previous year. Unless it is hiding somewhere, historical data on Bantams is also not readily available. Now that I am keeping track of these things, I hope to avoid those mistakes in the future.
-Bemidji also slipped through the cracks in part due to reputation, I admit that. I don't have time to study every single team, and for the most part the ones I don't look at aren't real contenders. But I'm bound to miss every now and then.

K I'll play the game northwoods

Thanks for clarifying Karl.

[EHSHack]

Well JV is HS Hockey is largely irrelevant. The majority of JV kids will never skate a regular shift on Varsity.

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

[bbad]

Well JV is HS Hockey is largely irrelevant. The majority of JV kids will never skate a regular shift on Varsity.

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

so you have 2 seniors graduating and 18 kids moving up from Bantams -- obviously the majority will play JV their first year

[supertacks]

Well JV is HS Hockey is largely irrelevant. The majority of JV kids will never skate a regular shift on Varsity.

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

So let's see how many kids on EP's State Championship team played JV. Below is the list:

Des Shavlik
Luc Gerdes
Ben Boldenow
Mark Rath
Nick Seeler
Luc Sudman
Joe Kerker
Brad Boldenow
Daniel Thayer
Chad Dahlquist
Patrick Hellier

That's a good chunk of the roster and many of these kids obviously made major contributions this year, and will continue to do so at the next level.

EHSHack, you're not making too many friends out here with your boorish, uninformed, stupid comments. I seriously question if you know anything about hockey at all.

BTW, RAU is a freak of a hockey player!!!

[MNHockey75]

On my section champion team all but 5 kids played JV for at least half a season. In strong hockey programs the majority of the kids have no other choice but JV it up for a year. Or they can transfer to STA or Breck and play as an 8th grader. It takes a special player to play as a 9th/10th grader on top 10 teams.

[EHSHack]

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

So let's see how many kids on EP's State Championship team played JV. Below is the list:

Des Shavlik
Luc Gerdes
Ben Boldenow
Mark Rath
Nick Seeler
Luc Sudman
Joe Kerker
Brad Boldenow
Daniel Thayer
Chad Dahlquist
Patrick Hellier

That's a good chunk of the roster and many of these kids obviously made major contributions this year, and will continue to do so at the next level.

EHSHack, you're not making too many friends out here with your boorish, uninformed, stupid comments. I seriously question if you know anything about hockey at all.

BTW, RAU is a freak of a hockey player!!!

So you are telling me all those kids played just JV their sophomore year and were not on EP's State Championship team?

[EHSHack]

really? The majority of JV kids never skate Varsity? So every good player jumps right from Bantams to Varsity.... and what happens to the juniors and seniors then? They get bumped by the sophomores and freshmen? I find it hard to believe that every good Bantam is good enough to bump the good Juniors and Seniors. (and so they do bump the Junior or Senior; then do they get bumped the next year by the incoming Bantams?) Is it not true that there is simply is not always enough room on the Varsity team for all the good players and that the JV is where the players develop into Varsity players? Aren't the players that get cut usually the ones that the coaches see no potential to ever become Varsity players? I am not seeing the logic in this. Please explain.

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

BTW, RAU is a freak of a hockey player!!!

Get off his PLEASE BAN ME maybe? Bobby Orr was a freak of a hockey player.
He is the best hockey player in MN but my god it seems like everyone on here wants Rau to be the father of their children.

[hockeyma]

I said the MAJORITY of the JV kids never skate a REGULAR varsity shift aka lines 1-3.

I never said every Bantam is good enough. They replace the kids who graduated, obviously.

BTW, RAU is a freak of a hockey player!!!

Get off his PLEASE BAN ME maybe? Bobby Orr was a freak of a hockey player.
He is the best hockey player in MN but my god it seems like everyone on here wants Rau to be the father of their children.

Can someone please explain the "Please Ban Me" thing that you keep referring to? and no, I don't want him to father any of my children. I'm quite pleased with their daddy!

[PuckU126]

Can someone please explain the "Please Ban Me" thing that you keep referring to?

He probably typed a swearword in his post.

The forum has automatic censors to prevent foul language.

[hockeyma]

Can someone please explain the "Please Ban Me" thing that you keep referring to?

He probably typed a swearword in his post.

The forum has automatic censors to prevent foul language.

oh lol He must do it a lot... cuz I believe I have seen this before.... Thanks for enlightening me of the that surrounds us!!!

[BodyShots]

...or mid-November...

There's a lot of research to do before then. Incoming bantams, graduations and early departures, transfers, advanced camps, Elite League...I'm going to pay attention to all of these things, at least to some degree.

Just playin'.

How about pre-preseason rankings then?

Ummm....

1. Duluth East.

There, now everyone can call me a homer an argue about that while I figure out who #2 is.

Come on Karl, we all know your top 5 for next year.

1. DE
2. GR
3. Cloq
4. ER
5. FL

Now, can you explain how GR jumps ahead of HM in your final rankings?

[karl(east)]

Come on Karl, we all know your top 5 for next year.

1. DE
2. GR
3. Cloq
4. ER
5. FL

Now, can you explain how GR jumps ahead of HM in your final rankings?

Eh, I'd slide Elk River ahead of Cloquet. Very nice group of bantams coming up for the Elks.

As for the Hill question, the rankings put a lot of extra weight on postseason performance. Given what was expected of Hill, it's hard (from a ranking perspective) not to consider them a playoff flop. Their #1 ranking was tenuous all along; I admitted that it had to do in part with their reputation.

GR may also have lost their section final, but they did not underachieve this postseason, and they lost to a better team than the one Hill lost to.

I'll also jump into this little debate on JV--I think the takeaway from the above argument is that different programs use their JV teams in different ways. In some, all but a few star players spend time on JV; in others, the above-average bantams just about all play varsity as sophomores. If a JV team does well, there are a lot of potential reasons...it could be the future stars carrying the team, or maybe it's older kids who won't ever play varsity, but are developed enough that they can handle the less experienced kids. Many programs also keep some kids on the shuttle between JV and Varsity all year long. An injury on varsity can sap a JV team of talent. Because there's so much going on there, I don't think we can rely on JV results as a predictor of future success unless we have intimate knowledge of how each program manages its JV, and that information really does not exist at this point.

[EHSHack]

Can someone please explain the "Please Ban Me" thing that you keep referring to?

He probably typed a swearword in his post.

The forum has automatic censors to prevent foul language.

oh lol He must do it a lot... cuz I believe I have seen this before.... Thanks for enlightening me of the that surrounds us!!!

Well most people just put Please Ban Me instead of actually posting the word lol

[EHSHack]

Duplicate.

[PuckU126]

He probably typed a swearword in his post.

The forum has automatic censors to prevent foul language.

oh lol He must do it a lot... cuz I believe I have seen this before.... Thanks for enlightening me of the that surrounds us!!!

Well most people just put Please Ban Me instead of actually posting the word lol

That is true as well.

[bbad]

Come on Karl, we all know your top 5 for next year.

1. DE
2. GR
3. Cloq
4. ER
5. FL

Now, can you explain how GR jumps ahead of HM in your final rankings?

Eh, I'd slide Elk River ahead of Cloquet. Very nice group of bantams coming up for the Elks.

As for the Hill question, the rankings put a lot of extra weight on postseason performance. Given what was expected of Hill, it's hard (from a ranking perspective) not to consider them a playoff flop. Their #1 ranking was tenuous all along; I admitted that it had to do in part with their reputation.

GR may also have lost their section final, but they did not underachieve this postseason, and they lost to a better team than the one Hill lost to.

I'll also jump into this little debate on JV--I think the takeaway from the above argument is that different programs use their JV teams in different ways. In some, all but a few star players spend time on JV; in others, the above-average bantams just about all play varsity as sophomores. If a JV team does well, there are a lot of potential reasons...it could be the future stars carrying the team, or maybe it's older kids who won't ever play varsity, but are developed enough that they can handle the less experienced kids. Many programs also keep some kids on the shuttle between JV and Varsity all year long. An injury on varsity can sap a JV team of talent. Because there's so much going on there, I don't think we can rely on JV results as a predictor of future success unless we have intimate knowledge of how each program manages its JV, and that information really does not exist at this point.

I continue to be intrigued -- so just to be the devils advocate, let me ask this:
If you feel it is unhelpful to look at jv because you do not know how each school handles jv, then how does it really help to look at the Bantams, when you have no clue if those Bantams will be playing varsity or jv?

[karl(east)]

I continue to be intrigued -- so just to be the devils advocate, let me ask this:
If you feel it is unhelpful to look at jv because you do not know how each school handles jv, then how does it really help to look at the Bantams, when you have no clue if those Bantams will be playing varsity or jv?

When I started doing rankings, I did not look at bantams very intently. (I had some knowledge of what was going on, but it was hardly a focus.) Then, after last season, I went back to look for some sort of trend in the "misses" between preseason and postseason rankings, just as I did this year. The answer was pretty easy: the list of teams that were misses lined up almost exactly with a list of top bantam teams the year before, according to mnhockeyrankings.com. While some good players off those bantam teams ended up on JV, thinking back on those teams (Eagan, Duluth East, Edina, Wayzata, and Apple Valley), they all got some big contributions out of sophomores, or even freshmen. The top bantam teams have players who are good enough to jump straight up to varsity and make an impact.

I adjusted for that this year in the preseason rankings, and it worked pretty well. Some people whined that Duluth East (arguably the #1 bantam team last year) was too high; the results show they weren't, and they had 5 sophomores getting regular shifts--some making some very important and memorable plays--at the state tourney. Others predicted the demise of Minnetonka after all their graduations, but thanks to some big contributions from young players (ie. Lettieri), they kept pace with the other Lake teams for most of the season. Maple Grove got hyped up some due to their strong bantam team, and rightfully so. The great Woodbury bantam team was broken up among three schools, but the good players off the team who went to Hill (ie. Guentzel) sure made an impact. Grand Rapids' success also owes a lot to the arrival of several up-and-coming stars (Bischoff, Peterson, and others).

Bottom line, the star players who made a lot of good bantam teams great jump straight to varsity. It's not an exact science--sometimes there's less room on the varsity team for young players, sometimes players bloom late or peak early, and I need to pay attention to whether players end up at private schools or not. But the information on all of this is pretty good, and the correlation is too big to ignore. With JV I'm not as convinced of the correlation, and the information is not there. Though if someone were to produce it, I would gladly take a look at it and try to make something of it.

For the most part, I think strong JV teams tell us that a certain high school is very deep--which is something we can probably already know based on the depth of the varsity squad, or the size of the feeder association. Some good players will earn their dues there and turn into great varsity players, but by in large the players who make good teams great come straight up from bantams.

[MNHockeyFan]

For the most part, I think strong JV teams tell us that a certain high school is very deep--which is something we can probably already know based on the depth of the varsity squad, or the size of the feeder association. Some good players will earn their dues there and turn into great varsity players, but by in large the players who make good teams great come straight up from bantams.

Agree 100%, but I did notice this comment by Wayzata coach Carl Davis in our local Sun Newspaper, speaking about his team's prospects for 2011-12:

"We lose a lot of our scoring punch for next season, but we are expecting help from our JV team, which had a 23-2-0 record. There is a lot of talent there."

http://www.mnsun.com/articles/2011/03/0 ... wzbhoc.txt