Top 75 High Schools teams of all-time

[east hockey]

#8 will be revealed this evening after the Bulldogs Frozen Four game.

Lee

[karl(east)]

Funny...I didn't realize until after I had adjusted for decades and the split to a two class system that my changes hurt Duluth East, since they won their first title in 1960 when point values were lower and won their other two titles after the two-class system was in place. Heh.

Lee

I noticed that right away.

Better go back to the old system.

[MNHockeyFan]

#8 will be revealed this evening after the Bulldogs Frozen Four game.

I picked Grand Rapids, but admit it was little more than an uneducated guess.

Funny...I didn't realize until after I had adjusted for decades and the split to a two class system that my changes hurt Duluth East...

Hmmm, unless this is a great head fake, I guess what you're saying here is that Duluth East will not finish on top of the list.

[east hockey]

Results from the poll on #8:

St Paul Johnson--7 votes
Intl Falls--4 votes
Duluth East--2 votes
Edina--2 votes
Grand Rapids--2 votes
Hill-Murray--1 vote

Lee

[east hockey]

#8: St. Paul Johnson

278.78 pts
--4 state titles
--22 state tournaments

Johnson was the strongest team in the Twin Cities in the 40’s, 50’s and 60’s with 17 trips to State and four titles along with three runner-up and three third place finishes. Their success fell off starting in the 70’s, getting to State five times over the next 40 seasons but never finishing higher than fourth. St. Paul Johnson starting playing in Class A in 2009-10.

[east hockey]

#74: Eastview

15.80 pts

--0 state titles
--1 state tournament

Eastview has just one Class AA state tournament appearance (2001), but captured the consolation title that year. A relatively new program (started in 1997), the Lightning have made their section finals three times but has failed to advance past the Section 3AA quarterfinals the past three years.

Actually had all post-season accolades stripped by the MSHSL the year they made their only state tournament appearance. Had some ineligible players that season.

Just saying, as a fan of the real Apple Valley school.

Found this link regarding Eastview's 2000-01 season:

http://www.thisweek-online.com/2001/oct ... tview.html

Lee

[HShockeywatcher]

#74: Eastview

15.80 pts

--0 state titles
--1 state tournament

Eastview has just one Class AA state tournament appearance (2001), but captured the consolation title that year. A relatively new program (started in 1997), the Lightning have made their section finals three times but has failed to advance past the Section 3AA quarterfinals the past three years.

Actually had all post-season accolades stripped by the MSHSL the year they made their only state tournament appearance. Had some ineligible players that season.

Just saying, as a fan of the real Apple Valley school.

Per the article Lee posted:

"The violations do not affect the Lightningís post-season success. They will be able to keep their Section 5AA championship and the consolation championship they won at the state tournament."

A similar thing happened in football with a CSC team in recent years. Personally I think it's silly to punish the whole team for misactions of a couple players, sometimes actions they did not know they were in violation they were in of. On the same note, in a system where all teams make playoffs, simply changing a record for a good team isn't that much of a punishment.

[TTpuckster]

Da Bronco's almost have to next..............

[karl(east)]

Da Bronco's almost have to next..............

I voted for them too, but I wouldn't be terribly shocked if it's Duluth East or Grand Rapids.

[PuckU126]

Da Bronco's almost have to next..............

I voted for them too, but I wouldn't be terribly shocked if it's Duluth East or Grand Rapids.

Especially EAST

[east hockey]

Results of the poll on #7:

International Falls--10 votes
Hill-Murray--3 votes
Bloom. Jefferson--1 vote
Duluth East--1 vote
Grand Rapids--1 vote

Lee

[east hockey]

#7: International Falls

299.27 pts
--6 state titles; 1 state title (Class A)
--16 state tournaments; 3 state tournaments (Class A)

The run the Broncos had from 1961-66 was one of the most dominating runs in state history. Five straight state tournaments, four championships (three in a row where they went 55-3-1 with back-to-back perfect seasons in 1964-65 & 1965-66), one second place finish, and an amazing 104-6-4 record. Only Eveleth’s four straight titles compare, and International Falls had their run when many more teams were playing. This overshadowed another nice run from 1956-59 when they had four straight appearances in Minneapolis including a championship, second place and third place finish. They won State again in 1972, with third-place hardware won the year before and after that. The Falls started playing Class A in 1993 and won the state title in 1995. Two more trips to state followed, but they haven’t returned to the Little Show (Class A tourney) since 2002 and haven’t made it to the Section 7A finals since 2003.

[luckyEPDad]

Class A points were calculated at 36% of Class AA points.

Code: Select all

The 0.36 I came up with was the result of comparing the PageStat ratings of every Class A team to every Class AA team over the past eleven years. This was a huge sampling of over 83,000 comparisons and gave me a certain amount of confidence.

Above is from the topic where I started discussion of this.

Lee

I have a bad feeling about the 0.36 number and am wondering how it is derived. My interpretation is the number means that if the top A and AA teams play each other that you expect the A team to win only 18% of the time. That feels low to me and doesn't match with the rankings on ushsho.com. Just sampling last year's rankings I came up with weightings from 0.76 to 0.85 depending on how I evaluate the data. Looking at all A and AA schools I get the lower number. Looking only at schools that advanced to state I got the higher number.

I'm not sure how to handle schools that opt up. Roseau is a class A school (by enrollment) that plays against class AA schools. As it fits the definition of a class A school I lean towards lumping it with the A schools when calculating an weight.

Regardless, this has been a fun thread to follow.

[HShockeywatcher]

Class A points were calculated at 36% of Class AA points.

Code: Select all

The 0.36 I came up with was the result of comparing the PageStat ratings of every Class A team to every Class AA team over the past eleven years. This was a huge sampling of over 83,000 comparisons and gave me a certain amount of confidence.

Above is from the topic where I started discussion of this.

Lee

I have a bad feeling about the 0.36 number and am wondering how it is derived. My interpretation is the number means that if the top A and AA teams play each other that you expect the A team to win only 18% of the time. That feels low to me and doesn't match with the rankings on ushsho.com. Just sampling last year's rankings I came up with weightings from 0.76 to 0.85 depending on how I evaluate the data. Looking at all A and AA schools I get the lower number. Looking only at schools that advanced to state I got the higher number.

I'm not sure how to handle schools that opt up. Roseau is a class A school (by enrollment) that plays against class AA schools. As it fits the definition of a class A school I lean towards lumping it with the A schools when calculating an weight.

Regardless, this has been a fun thread to follow.

I didn't want to post anything negative on here, but I agree that the .36 is low. I could see it happening when you consider all teams in state as the bottom teams are generally A programs, but it is much different when you consider only those that make the tournament.

For example, was Warroad's effort in 2005 only 1/3 the effort of Holy Angels'? They finished (after state games) #4 on PageStat2 and .03 behind #3 AHA and finished .15 behind #1 Moorhead, whom they tied during the season.

In 2006, CDH played the #22, #9, and #16 teams, while STA #56, #20 and #13 teams. Sure, many teams in A will have one low game, but overall, at least two of the teams they play are totally comparable with the AA teams. These two teams played twice during the season and the AA team won (sadly) both by 3 and 1 goals. Obviously the AA team is better and plays better teams, but not 3 times better.

As luckyEPDad said, this has been a very fun thread to read, I'm surprised to see my alma mater as high as they are. It's cool to read and learn about teams of the past.

[karl(east)]

When figuring out how much weight to give to Class A achievements, the question to ask is, "how well would these teams be doing if they were in AA?" When framed that way, I don't think the .36 number is low at all.

Let's take the past ten years as an example. We'll pretend we only had 1 class, and that A teams were in the AA section that made the most geographic sense.

Let's say Rochester Lourdes won Section 1 3 times. That may be a stretch, but it's very possible.
We'll be generous to STA too; they've had some great teams, and sections 3 and 4 aren't the deepest, so we'll say they won 4 section titles.
Breck would have been in Section 2 or 6, which would have made it very difficult to win a section title any year, even with the good teams they've had. But we'll say they pulled it off once and won 1 section title.
Hermantown has had some great years; we'll say they won section 7 twice.
Marshall had a nice run in the middle of the decade; we'll say they won section 7 twice as well.
Warroad has had some of the finest Class A teams ever, especially towards the start of the decade. I'll give them 5 Section 8 titles.

Even under this scenario--which I expect everyone will agree is over-optimistic about what a number of these teams could have achieved--Class A schools won 17/80 possible trips to state. That's 21.25%--a figure substantially lower than the .36 Lee used.

I think it's okay to push the number up some to reflect the difficulty of making a good playoff run. But if anything, .36 overrates Class A teams' abilities.

I'm not sure I understand the argument about giving Roseau a class A weight. They've been playing AA competition, which is the only thing that matters. These rankings don't seem to care about success relative to size. (And interestingly, 4 of the 6 remaining teams opt up to AA.)

I'll be a homer and say GR will be #6.

[east hockey]

Okay, the Dogs have won the national championship and my heart rate has returned to normal, so let's get on with the next team.

#6: Duluth East

308.55 pts
--3 state titles
--18 state tournaments

While East had some good teams prior to the 1990-91 season when they finished second to Hill-Murray in the final one-class state tournament, they also had a problem; they were in Section 7 until 1974-75 and were usually beaten by a far-superior Range team. Even so, they had four appearances at State from 1958-64, winning a title in 1960. The Hounds, however, only went to state once from 1966-90 while falling six times in their section final during that period.

1994-98 was “prime time” for East with two Class AA state titles, a second place and two third place finishes, leading them to #2 in points in Minnesota in that decade. They also went to state seven times from 2000-11, finishing second place twice and third place twice more. Of note is that they were #7 overall behind the Falls until finishing second to Eden Prairie this season. Since 1975 they have played in 21 section finals (14-7) and 29 section semifinals (21-8 ), and have made it to at least their section semifinals the past 18 seasons.

[DmanDad1980]

With East in, we have these squads left...

Edina
Roseau
Hill-Murray
Bloom. Jefferson
Grand Rapids

In order...

Roseau & Edina will be close for top spot... I believe that Edina has more recent championships & wins, although Roseau has more overall appearances in Section Final, State appearances, State hardware, and Wins at state...

[TTpuckster]

Down to those 5, I expect it will be either GR or BJ next = #5.

I predict #5 will be the Indians, er Thunder whatevers...........

[luckyEPDad]

Even under this scenario--which I expect everyone will agree is over-optimistic about what a number of these teams could have achieved--Class A schools won 17/80 possible trips to state. That's 21.25%--a figure substantially lower than the .36 Lee used.

If you assume that class A teams win 21.25% of their games against AA opponents that would mean that the weighting should be .425 which is higher than .36. After all, on average AA teams win only 50% of their games against other AA teams, not 100%.

The arguement about putting opt up schools in the A pool when calculating a weighting is one of statistical analysis. Let's say the bottom half of A teams decide to opt up next year. The remaining A teams play a lot of these opt up schools (big schools are not evenly distributed geographically), and win 80% of those games. Now we have to give AA tournament points a weighting of 0.4.

When it comes to statistics you don't get to decide in which population you belong.

[east hockey]

Even under this scenario--which I expect everyone will agree is over-optimistic about what a number of these teams could have achieved--Class A schools won 17/80 possible trips to state. That's 21.25%--a figure substantially lower than the .36 Lee used.

If you assume that class A teams win 21.25% of their games against AA opponents that would mean that the weighting should be .425 which is higher than .36. After all, on average AA teams win only 50% of their games against other AA teams, not 100%.

The 0.36 was derived from Class A teams winning 26.5% of the PageStat matchups. Thus, (.26.5/(1-.26.5))=.36 (actually .361 but I rounded down)

Lee

[east hockey]

#5: Grand Rapids

325.72 pts
--3 state titles
--14 state tournaments


Grand Rapids ruled section 7 with eight straight trips to state from 1974-81, winning State three times along with two runner-ups and a third-place finish. They were #2 in points in the 70’s behind only Edina. They had three additional trips to State between 1988-91 and returned for back-to-back runner-up titles in 2006-07. Since 1974, the Indians (Thunderhawks for the P.C. crowd) have played in 22 section finals (13-9) and 31 section semifinals (22-9)

[HShockeywatcher]

Even under this scenario--which I expect everyone will agree is over-optimistic about what a number of these teams could have achieved--Class A schools won 17/80 possible trips to state. That's 21.25%--a figure substantially lower than the .36 Lee used.

If you assume that class A teams win 21.25% of their games against AA opponents that would mean that the weighting should be .425 which is higher than .36. After all, on average AA teams win only 50% of their games against other AA teams, not 100%.

The 0.36 was derived from Class A teams winning 26.5% of the PageStat matchups. Thus, (.26.5/(1-.26.5))=.36 (actually .361 but I rounded down)

Lee

Comparing all the Class A teams to all the Class AA teams is different than just comparing the team that make it to state. Obviously any ranking of all teams will be top heavy with AA and bottom heavy with A, as it would be in any sport. But when you compare those who make state, I'm sure the numbers would be different.

All that being said, unless there is some personal bias (and I'm not saying there is) against certain teams for playing A, why use any weight? The list is the "top programs", not the "best teams regardless of class." Without the specifics of discussing certain schools, why is a school 1/3 of the program of another for winning the tournament they were playing for?

At the start of any year, the goal for most programs is to win their classes title. Personally, I would say that Triton (for example) probably has one of the top all around football programs in the state in recent years. Would they compete for a 5A title? No, but they aren't a 5A team.

[TTpuckster]

And then there were 4.

The Jags will come up next....at #4. Some great years in the 80's and 90's.

[east hockey]

If you assume that class A teams win 21.25% of their games against AA opponents that would mean that the weighting should be .425 which is higher than .36. After all, on average AA teams win only 50% of their games against other AA teams, not 100%.

The 0.36 was derived from Class A teams winning 26.5% of the PageStat matchups. Thus, (.26.5/(1-.26.5))=.36 (actually .361 but I rounded down)

Lee

Comparing all the Class A teams to all the Class AA teams is different than just comparing the team that make it to state. Obviously any ranking of all teams will be top heavy with AA and bottom heavy with A, as it would be in any sport. But when you compare those who make state, I'm sure the numbers would be different.

All that being said, unless there is some personal bias (and I'm not saying there is) against certain teams for playing A, why use any weight? The list is the "top programs", not the "best teams regardless of class." Without the specifics of discussing certain schools, why is a school 1/3 of the program of another for winning the tournament they were playing for?

At the start of any year, the goal for most programs is to win their classes title. Personally, I would say that Triton (for example) probably has one of the top all around football programs in the state in recent years. Would they compete for a 5A title? No, but they aren't a 5 team.

Compare the top teams from Class A vs the top teams from Class AA in the PageStat rankings. Even at the top, it's top-heavy with Class AA. You're putting a lot of words out there, with no real substance. No real evidence other than cherry picking a few stats here and there which fit what you want to believe.

Lee

[stpaul]

It's amazing how accurate and right these rankings seem to be. This is a fun list and brings back memories of these great teams, their players & coaches and their state tournament successes. The final four must be 1. Edina/Edina East, 2. Roseau, 3. Jefferson, 4. Hill-Murray.