AA Rankings for 1/8/12

[karl(east)]

We’ve reached the approximate halfway point in the regular season, and the statewide scene continues to evolve following a series of games between the top teams. We’ll get an even clearer picture after this coming week; there’s an unusual number of big games on the docket, including contests with major seeding implications in sections 2, 5, 6, 7, and 8.

The halfway point feels like a good time to break out the “need” feature, which I’ve used in the past and will probably use again sometime near the end of the season. I’ve seen most of the top 15 teams now, so I’ve given what I think each team’s most pressing need is. Feel free to add comments if you think teams have other pressing issues not mentioned here.

1. Duluth East (13-0)
-Recorded a second straight convincing win over a #2-ranked team, then rolled past Moorhead to put themselves in the undisputed top spot. With strong wins over the two teams immediately below them, a loss probably won’t cost them the #1 ranking. The week ahead is a very interesting one: after a tune-up against Anoka, the Hounds go on the road to face rival Grand Rapids, who will be motivated to take them down, then they play at Eden Prairie, the team that beat them in last year’s title game.
Need: There’s still some fine-tuning to do around the edges: getting healthy, tightening up the defense, perfecting the forecheck. Beyond that, Mike Randolph has been emphasizing “mental toughness” lately, and given the target the Hounds now have on their backs, he is dead-on.
This week: Tues vs. Anoka, Thurs at #12 Grand Rapids, Sat at #6 Eden Prairie

2. Minnetonka (12-1)
-The Skippers bounced back from their only loss in convincing fashion, taking care of Eagan and coming from behind to hold off upset-minded Moorhead. The Eagan win boosts them back into the #2 spot, and now they must gear up for yet another game against a top team when they host Benilde this week.
Need: To tighten up their defense ahead of games against an explosive Benilde team and their re-match next week with East.
This week: Tues at Hopkins, Thurs vs. #7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. Holy Angels

3. Maple Grove (13-1-1)
-The loss to East humbled a team that had been rolling along, but it’s hard to complain too much about a disciplined team that’s beaten everyone else they’ve played. Only one game this week, but it’s a big one against their last non-conference opponent of the regular season. A win cements them in the top five; a loss could make the NWSC season a little more interesting.
Need: Better breakouts and more sustained pressure against top teams. They can beat weak defensive teams like Benilde by relying on breakaways, but that doesn’t work against more disciplined opponents like East.
This week: Thurs at #5 Edina

4. Eagan (10-2)
-Couldn’t get past Minnetonka, but rebounded with a pair of wins against weaker SSC teams. The loss to the Skippers means they won’t manage a major non-conference win, rendering it difficult for the Wildcats to move much higher in the rankings as the season goes on. They now have to focus on taking care of business in the conference; they face likely their biggest challenger for the SSC on the road this week.
Need: A little more offense in big games--they’ve only mustered three goals in their two games against other top ten teams. Also, given this team’s front-line talent and weaker schedule, 20% is an underwhelming power play.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at #10 Burnsville

5. Edina (12-2)
-It wasn’t a flashy week for the Hornets, but they got the job done against some decent teams and for the time being maintain their fairly clear position as #5 in the state. The week ahead is a huge one, with a battle for the top seed in the section with Burnsville and then a home game against a vaunted Maple Grove team. Time to learn how this young group handles some pressure situations. This is the time of year the Hornets have hit a rough patch the past few seasons; we’ll see if they can avoid that this time around.
Need: Nothing really stands out, except perhaps more experience. We’ll see how quickly a young team can grow up down the stretch.
This week: Thurs at #10 Burnsville, Sat vs. #3 Maple Grove

6. Eden Prairie (9-2-1)
-Wrapped up their 3-game series with Elk River with a 6-3 win, then survived a scare against a surging Holy Angels squad. Their lead over Benilde for the six-spot is tenuous, but they’re still up there on the strength of the early season Eagan win. Have a whole week to prepare for their state title game rematch with top-ranked Duluth East.
Need: A little more offensive production across the board would make them a truly dangerous team.
This week: Sat vs. #1 Duluth East

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-3)
-The postponement of the Wayzata game left the Red Knights with one easy game this past week. Now they must ready themselves for a huge section battle at Minnetonka; a win would be a huge emotional lift for this team. Despite some of the weaknesses they’ve shown so far this year, they still could be a real threat if they start to put things together, and could conceivably still get the top seed in the section.
Need: No surprise here--they must shore up their defensive play.
This week: Tues vs. Spring Lake Park, Thurs at #2 Minnetonka, Sat at Robbinsdale Cooper

8. Moorhead (8-3)
-There isn’t much shame in back-to-back losses to the top two teams in the state; the Spuds hung in there reasonably well against both, and all of their losses are to teams above them in the rankings. The schedule eases up only marginally this week, with home games against a borderline section contender in Brainerd and an elite team in Class A.
Need: A little more scoring punch.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. Breck

9. Hill-Murray (7-4)
-Did what they needed to do against South St. Paul, and now continue an easy stretch in their schedule with two more games against Classic Suburban teams that aren’t St. Thomas Academy. Games later this month against Eden Prairie, St. Thomas, and Eagan will give us a better idea of how this team stacks up against teams outside their thin conference and section.
Need: Some uncharacteristic defensive struggles have popped up at times for what has otherwise been a pretty steady team. If they can fix that up, they’ll be a dangerous team in sections and at State.
This week: Thurs at North St. Paul, Sat vs. Tartan

10. Burnsville (8-4-1)
-A tight win over Lakeville North and a tie with Apple Valley continue a string of somewhat underwhelming results for the Blaze. Still, their overall resume and some turmoil in the rankings below them keep them in the top ten for now. The Blaze have a monster week ahead of them, with games against section rival Edina and a conference frontrunner Eagan.
Need: To develop a little more depth.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Edina, Thurs at Bloomington Kennedy, Sat vs. #4 Eagan

11. Wayzata (8-4-1)
-A strong win over Blaine sends the Trojans back up a few spots in the rankings, and the loss to Prior Lake no longer looks quite as bad as it did at the time. Hard to get a feel for where exactly their season is going; on paper they’re the fourth-best team in the Lake Conference, but I’d expect them to get a couple of wins against the teams above them. They’ll also have a major section game against Benilde thrown in there somewhere once it’s rescheduled. Only one game this week, and it should be a W.
Need: More offensive production, particularly from players not on their top line.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville North

12. Grand Rapids (10-3)
-The Halloween Machine finally made some noise this past week with a win over Bemidji, and now head into one of their toughest weeks of the year. They struggled against Hermantown last year, and the memories of last season’s stunning loss to East are certainly still in their minds. A win in one game will prove they belong here in the rankings; a win in both would launch them back into the chase for the state title.
Need: To develop some depth--otherwise, teams like East and Elk River will just wear them down.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown, Thurs vs. #1 Duluth East

13. Blaine (9-4)
-Escaped with a narrow win at Andover, but the loss to Wayzata keeps the Bengals from making a serious run at the top ten. Face rival Centennial this week in what is likely the battle for the last line change in a section semifinal between the two of them.
Need: Oddly enough, their defense has been letting them down lately. They’re giving up way too many goals for a team supposedly built around a top-end goalie and a star defenseman.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #15 Centennial

14. Elk River (7-5-2)
-Another loss to Eden Prairie shows the Elks probably aren’t quite in the top tier of teams at this point. Appear to be treading water after some nice results back in December. Big section test on the road against Andover this week; a win should cement them as the 2-seed, while a loss could throw the section seeding wide open.
Need: To generate more offense, as has been the case in recent years.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Francis, Sat at Andover

15. Centennial (6-7-1)
-Seem to play tight games against everyone they face these days; that’s a good thing against teams like Eden Prairie and Benilde, but raises some questions when it happens against Osseo and Armstrong. Still, all of their losses are to teams above them, and they have a key win over Andover. Lakeville South’s rough week allows them to slip into the top 15 once again; we’ll see if they can stay there after their game with Blaine.
Need: Production beyond their first line, and to not play down to some of their opponents.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat at #13 Blaine

Other Contenders
Andover (8-5)
-The tight loss to Blaine was yet another good showing against a ranked team, but sooner or later they need to start turning these close calls into wins if they want to go any higher. Their two games against Elk River are probably their most important regular season games; the first is this Saturday.

Lakeville South (6-5)
-It was an absolute clunker of a week for the Cougars, who lost to both Prior Lake and Lakeville North. A once-promising season suddenly looks a lot more complicated, and what seemed to be a cakewalk in 1AA may prove to be a real war. Positives: I think they’re better than this, and losing to North in January will definitely keep them from being complacent in a playoff meeting. This week they face the best non-Lakeville in 1AA--Rochester Century--and also take on an Apple Valley team that could give them a tight game.

Cloquet (10-4)
-Took care of business against Virginia, and this week face two slightly more difficult but winnable games against Hibbing and Superior, Wisconsin. Building towards a key re-match with Grand Rapids in two weeks.

White Bear Lake (7-5-1)
-The Bears’ roller coaster season surges upward: after some strong early results followed by a disappointing stretch just before Christmas, they powered past two of the better teams in their conference and gave Edina a good run at Braemar. Two conference games ahead of them this week.

Roseau (7-3-1)
-Sailing along through an easier part of their schedule. That changes this week, with the first game against archrival Warroad and a huge section battle in Bemidji.

Apple Valley (5-4-2)
-The Burnsville tie is a nice step in the right direction from the Eagles, who continue to put together a reasonably good-looking season. Interesting game ahead of them this week against a wounded Lakeville South squad.

Prior Lake (7-5)
-Deserve a mention after the upset of Lakeville South, though the Cougars’ subsequent loss to Lakeville North does take away some of the luster. The Lakers are very inconsistent, but they do boast two wins over upper-level teams that show they could be a factor come playoff time.

After that it gets messy; we have teams like Lakeville North, Bemidji, the usual scrum of SEC teams (which made even less sense than usual this past week), and perhaps some rebounding Stars from Holy Angels.

[Roseauverrated]

Great job as always, can't say I disagree with anything. I really look forward to, enjoy, and appreciate your in-depth analysis each week. Any reason why you haven't been doing the pick'em contest? I would think you would be pretty good at it. Also just a small correction, Minnetonka beat Eagan this past week, not Eden Prairie.

[blueblood]

Any notes on your section updates this week? Interested in your thoughts on 1AA and 2AA

[karl(east)]

Any notes on your section updates this week? Interested in your thoughts on 1AA and 2AA

I usually do that every other week, but since you asked:

1AA--We'll call it a two-team race for now. I think South should be able to handle Century this week, but if they don't, throw the race wide open. I still think South is the team to beat, but you have to wonder if North is in their heads by now.

On a related note, does someone have the real shot count for the North-South game? The Hub gamesheet says it's 7-6 in favor of North, which can't be right. I'm curious to hear more about this game.

2AA--Edina and Burnsville remain at the top of the field, though neither inspired a ton of confidence last week. The winner of their meeting this week should take home the top seed, and the loser will probably be #2. Prior Lake is sitting at #3 right now, though Burnsville beat them pretty handily, so I'm not sure how big of an upset threat they are come sections. If AHA continues its improved play, they probably have the inside track for the 4-seed, with Jefferson aiming for #5. (One last AHA-Jefferson battle would be a fitting end to Trebil's career at AHA.) I should probably mention Chanhassen, too; they did beat AHA the first time around, and if they beat them again, I suppose they could steal a pretty high seed.

Great job as always, can't say I disagree with anything. I really look forward to, enjoy, and appreciate your in-depth analysis each week. Any reason why you haven't been doing the pick'em contest? I would think you would be pretty good at it. Also just a small correction, Minnetonka beat Eagan this past week, not Eden Prairie.

Thanks for catching the typo. As for pick'em, I guess I haven't been doing it because I'm so self-conscious about trying to maintain neutrality while ranking. (I also never make predictions on East games, partly to stay neutral and partly out of superstition.) Maybe I'll lighten up and try it sometime soon; I've also considered picking the teams my rankings tell me to pick in the pick'em, just to see how they do.

[longdistancespectator8]

a few notes on the north-south game.

Shots were about 29 for south and 27 for north give or take a few.
Real game changing play happened when Kloos got free for a breakaway and then it appeared that a defense men threw his stick to poke it away. This is just from observation, but the d-mans stick went flying into the corner without hitting kloos' feet. Immediately following this play, Kloos exploded a North forward with the puck in his feet, then a south defense men tripped someone. In the end it went from what was likely a penalty shot. To a 5 on 3 for North. South ended up killing the 5 on 3, but gave a up a very weak goal to make it 2 to 2 only seconds after the penalties were up.
In a game that could have been 3 to 1, it ended up being 2 to 2 on what was a very demoralizing goal by North

Another note about the game is how physical it was. This is of course to be expected from a bitter rivalry like this one. However, the important part is that 5-6 players for North were dishing out the huge hits, while only Kloos for South was. In my opinion, North won because they turned it into a territorial and physical game which suits north much better than the high scoring, odd man rush based South team.

South desperately needs someone other than Freemark and Kloos to start producing on an everyday basis.

[Zamman]

Look at Chanhassens Strength of schedule....They play Rochester Lourdes, Blake and AHA. Otherwise they are on the cram-puff schedule. AHA has the 11th toughest schedule as of 12/31/2011 on Minnhock. Chan will not beat AHA the second time around....Sorry Blueblood.

[HShockeywatcher]

Really good this week. Grand Rapids is really a dark horse here. They have had one bad stretch of 3 games, if you consider losing to Edina by 1 bad, when I believe they were missing a key player on the team. This week will be interesting.

I'm looking forward to seeing how Moorhead does with Breck this weekend.

According to PageStat, Jefferson has the #2 toughest schedule behind Eden Prairie. Every team they have lost to is in your top 17 (PageStat's top 17 as well).

Look at Chanhassens Strength of schedule....They play Rochester Lourdes, Blake and AHA. Otherwise they are on the cram-puff schedule. AHA has the 11th toughest schedule as of 12/31/2011 on Minnhock. Chan will not beat AHA the second time around....Sorry Blueblood.

Year in and year out Holy Angels has probably the hardest non-conference schedule in the state, you will get no disagreement from anyone there. That being said, with their "cram-puff schedule" they are rated 0.96 points and 12 teams ahead of Holy Angels in the same rankings. SOS does not determine ability.

Their rematch should be a good game and I suspect the Stars will win, but Chanhassen has been playing good defense as of lately. I bet they will match up again in sections for the rubber match and that should be a good game.

[TheHockeyDJ]

If anyone is bringing their HD camera to the East/Rapids game let me know. I'm shocked this game isn't being streamed by anyone online.

[chester1991]

Karl great job with the rankings. I believe they are spot. Who is Hill Murray playing this week? St Paul North? Their is no St Paul North, I'm confused.

[PuckU126]

Karl great job with the rankings. I believe they are spot. Who is Hill Murray playing this week? St Paul North? Their is no St Paul North, I'm confused.

North St. Paul....

[northwoods oldtimer]

Good ranking Karl but I must say Eagan and Grand Rapids are the only teams so far to handle Lakeville North 10 -1 and 11 -4 in convincing fashion. Possible that Lakeville North is a benchmark for analysis on teams down the stretch.

Thursday night will be a Big Hockey Night in Grand Rapids!! Not since the days of Bill Baker have the locals been talking so much about a hockey game.

Prediction East 4(EN) - GR 2

[blueblood]

In response to Z's comments about Chan's soft schedule:

Chan is a 2nd year school. It's hard to build a schedule with no history behind the team

Just because you play a tough schedule doesn't make you a good team

Chan did ask several 2AA teams if they would play them. They all said no except Kennedy.

Scores of relevance:

Chan 5
Hopkins 0

Hopkins 4
Prior Lake 3

Chan's schedule will continue to improve each year.

[wbmd]

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-3)
-The postponement of the Wayzata game left the Red Knights with one easy game this past week. Now they must ready themselves for a huge section battle at Minnetonka; a win would be a huge emotional lift for this team. Despite some of the weaknesses they’ve shown so far this year, they still could be a real threat if they start to put things together, and could conceivably still get the top seed in the section.
Need: No surprise here--they must shore up their defensive play.
This week: Tues vs. St. Louis Park, Thurs at #2 Minnetonka, Sat at Robbinsdale Cooper

Hey karl, wake-up. Benilde plays Spring Lake Park Tuesday night. They don't play St. Louis Park as you have it listed as.

[The Best in the Bizz3]

In response to Z's comments about Chan's soft schedule:

Chan is a 2nd year school. It's hard to build a schedule with no history behind the team

Just because you play a tough schedule doesn't make you a good team

Chan did ask several 2AA teams if they would play them. They all said no except Kennedy.

Scores of relevance:

Chan 5
Hopkins 0

Hopkins 4
Prior Lake 3

Chan's schedule will continue to improve each year.

Prior Lake has the potential to have a strong year, but they are riding a rollercoaster right now... was the loss to Hopkins a huge hiccup, was the win against Wayzata luck, or have they not figured out how to bring a consistent effort to the ice every game?

[Neuuman]

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-3)
-The postponement of the Wayzata game left the Red Knights with one easy game this past week. Now they must ready themselves for a huge section battle at Minnetonka; a win would be a huge emotional lift for this team. Despite some of the weaknesses they’ve shown so far this year, they still could be a real threat if they start to put things together, and could conceivably still get the top seed in the section.
Need: No surprise here--they must shore up their defensive play.
This week: Tues vs. St. Louis Park, Thurs at #2 Minnetonka, Sat at Robbinsdale Cooper

Hey karl, wake-up. Benilde plays Spring Lake Park Tuesday night. They don't play St. Louis Park as you have it listed as.

A little harsh, don't you think? I haven't seen "wbmd" doing a ton of research and posting his/her findings on here lately.

[pekyman]

Good ranking Karl but I must say Eagan and Grand Rapids are the only teams so far to handle Lakeville North 10 -1 and 11 -4 in convincing fashion. Possible that Lakeville North is a benchmark for analysis on teams down the stretch.

Thursday night will be a Big Hockey Night in Grand Rapids!! Not since the days of Bill Baker have the locals been talking so much about a hockey game.

Prediction East 4(EN) - GR 2

GR better not be thinking too far ahead. They need to get by Hermantown on Tuesday

[Edgy]

In response to Z's comments about Chan's soft schedule:

Chan is a 2nd year school. It's hard to build a schedule with no history behind the team

Just because you play a tough schedule doesn't make you a good team

Chan did ask several 2AA teams if they would play them. They all said no except Kennedy.

Scores of relevance:

Chan 5
Hopkins 0

Hopkins 4
Prior Lake 3

Chan's schedule will continue to improve each year.

Prior Lake has the potential to have a strong year, but they are riding a rollercoaster right now... was the loss to Hopkins a huge hiccup, was the win against Wayzata luck, or have they not figured out how to bring a consistent effort to the ice every game?

The PL games I have seen - consustent effort (or inconsistent effort) has been the issue. Looking at the record it seems to be every other game. Looked like line changes for the LV S game - and the play was very balanced with good effort and chances from both teams. Didn't see the game on 1/7

[karl(east)]

Good ranking Karl but I must say Eagan and Grand Rapids are the only teams so far to handle Lakeville North 10 -1 and 11 -4 in convincing fashion. Possible that Lakeville North is a benchmark for analysis on teams down the stretch.

Thursday night will be a Big Hockey Night in Grand Rapids!! Not since the days of Bill Baker have the locals been talking so much about a hockey game.

Prediction East 4(EN) - GR 2

Naturally, common results against Lakeville North should be used to predict the East-Rapids game--Rapids by 4!

But seriously, rapidsrapids is right; someone has to find some way to get that game up online.

Thanks, as always, to my many editors.

Fun fact I noticed on East today--in their past 4 games, arguably the four hardest ones they've played, they've outscored their opponents 21-10.
Periods 1 and 2: East outscores their opponents 16-3.
Period 3: East's opponents outscore them 7-5.
Interpret that however you will...

[trev2k1]

Roseau (7-3-1)
-Sailing along through an easier part of their schedule. That changes this week, with the first game against archrival Warroad and a huge section battle in Bemidji.



quick question, do not want to start new thread.
anybody know if chase broten is returning this week against warroad?