http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/news_ar ... how/114529
Ice Chips: KRACH is coming!
11/18/2011, 7:30pm (CST)
By Bill Halbrehder
Here we go, the season is under way. Good friend and former coach Brian Goski has always enjoyed statistical ranking of our girl's hockey teams. He uses a statistical ranking called KRACH. Over a number of years, I have been in charge of Section 4AA Girls Hockey for the MSHSL, and I have compared the accuracy of his ranking for the sections with the way they actually turned out, both as the coaches ranked them for seeding, and (including some upsets) how they actually turned out at the end of the sectional tournament. It is amazing that the KRACH statistical ranking has been almost spot on, in the way our section has turned out, and the way the coaches have ranked the teams. The MSHSL has been looking in the direction of some form of statistical ranking for state playdowns in many sports, and although hockey for the most part, still has the coaches rank their section teams, I thought it would be fun and interesting to see how KRACH might do, with the way teams end up for the 2011-12 season.
What caught my eye about KRACH when I first noticed it a few years back, was that it took into account strength of schedule as it ranked the teams. You will sometimes see teams with a lessor record ranked higher than others because they had a much stronger and more difficult schedule than teams with better records. As I looked into it in more detail, I found that the KRACH formula actually helps sort out just what the strength of schedule is for a particular team, as well as taking that into account for its ranking.
I am not a numbers guy, so I won't even try to explain how it works, but here are a few more things I found out about KRACH. First of all it's a funny sounding name, but it actually stands for Ken's Rating for American College Hockey...hence KRACH. Ken is Ken Butler, a statistician, and the mathematical model he used is known as the Bradley-Terry Rating System. That's as far as I can go with a limited mathematical mind.
Another thing that strength of schedule helps determine is that the rankings cannot be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opponents. Finally, the KRACH ranking says that it cannot predict the future, and that champions are determined on the ice. From my perspective that really fits the unpredictability of the game of hockey, and it should be fun to see how it all turns out. So enjoy Brian Goski's version of KRACHfor girls high school hockey . What I like best about KRACH is that it covers top to bottom, all teams; breaks it down into Class A and AA; Strength of Schedule; and Ranking by Section. Welcome Brian, we look forward to your contribution.
