Big Games and Your Predictions – Season results updated!

[MNHockeyFan]

I thought it would be interesting to post some results from our weekly “Big Games” contests that have been ongoing during the 2011-12 season. I will update this thread periodically, giving credit to participating forum members where credit is due!

Some interesting stats, based on this season’s results (to date):

1. The odds of picking a correct score: roughly 1 in 31! So far, of all the entries posted, only 3.2% of the picks have predicted the actual (correct) score of the games. I thought the odds would be much better than this.

2. Of the prognosticators who have participated in at least half (3) of the contests held to date (6) here are the leaders so far:

a. Number of ‘First Place’ finishes (including ties):
capitalpride – 2
MNHockeyFan – 2
sinbin – 1
ayhfan – 1
Otter – 1
Nordic – 1
KRACH - 1

b. Number of correct scores:
Nordic – 6
sinbin – 5
D16Dad – 4
Otter – 4

c. Percent of total available points achieved*:
hckynut12 – 71.9%
MNHockeyFan – 71.0%
capitalpride – 67.7%
sinbin – 67.3%
woogieboogiewoogie – 67.3%
FlyingWarrior – 66.4%

*Notes:
1. Percentages adjusted for the weeks each person actually participated.
2. Total number of available points for those participating in the 6 contests so far: 107 (this includes the semifinal and final rounds of the two tournaments that were part of Week 6 & 7 combined).
3. Bonus points for correct scores are included – without them the percentages shown would be slightly lower!

[ghshockeyfan]

Very interesting - Thanks for posting!

[MNHockeyFan]

Updating season results through Week 9:

1. The odds of picking a correct score - based on the group's average to date - has improved slightly, to roughly 1 in 29 (3.5% of the total posted scores have been correct).

2. Of the prognosticators who have participated in at least half ( 4 ) of the contests held to date ( 8 ) here are the leaders:

a. Number of 1st Place finishes (including ties):
MNHockeyFan – 3
ayhfan – 2
capitalpride – 2
Silent But Deadly - 1
woogieboogiewoogie - 1
sinbin – 1
Otter – 1
mnhockey3535 - 1
Nordic – 1
KRACH - 1

b. Number of correct scores:
Nordic – 7
MNHockeyFan - 6
Silent But Deadly - 6
sinbin – 6
D16Dad – 5
ayhfan - 4
Otter – 4
mnhockey3535 - 4
KRACH - 4
Four with 3
Three with 2
Two with 1

c. Correct scores as a percent of total scores posted
Nordic - 7.4%
sinbin - 5.6%
MNHockeyFan - 4.9%
Silent But Deadly - 4.9%
mnhockey3535 - 4.5%
KRACH - 4.3%
D16Dad - 4.1%
hckynut12 - 3.8%
Otter - 3.7%

Average for all participants/posted games: 3.5%

d. Percent of total available points achieved*:
MNHockeyFan – 70.6%
woogieboogiewoogie - 68.4%
sinbin – 66.9%
Silent But Deadly - 66.2%
capitalpride – 65.6%
hckynut12 – 65.6%
hockeyfan87 - 64.8%
FlyingWarrior – 64.7%
ayhfan - 63.2%

Average for all participants/posted games: 62.9%
(KRACH = 61.1%)

*Notes:
1. Percentages adjusted for the weeks each person actually participated.
2. Total number of available points for those participating in the 8 contests so far: 136 (this includes the semifinal and final rounds of the two tournaments that were part of Week 6 & 7 combined).
3. Bonus points for correct scores are included – without them the percentages shown would be slightly lower!

[ghshockeyfan]

Thanks for posting this. It is interesting and leads me to question some aspects of KRACH...

First, removing the extra points, what % did KRACH get right and how did this number compare to others w/out the extra points?

Second, has KRACH been trending to a higher % of correct selections (again, without score consideration) as time goes on?

Third, when KRACH missed the right outcome, how did the majority of the humans do (this would be interesting to see as it might explain "upsets" as deemed so by both humans and computer ranking)?

Fourth, how did KRACH do relative to the other ranking sources (namely QRF/MN Scores computer rankign and the LPH poll human ranking)?

This ranking was very interesting and helpful to generate the questions above that I'm now considering. Thanks again!

[MNHockeyFan]

ghs, check your private messages!

[ghshockeyfan]

ghs, check your private messages!

Will do - THANKS!

[sinbin]

Gotta love the stats - more, more! One item that would be interesting is the "relative correctness" of the scores or perhaps variance/standard deviation. Instead of a binary (correct/incorrect) measure, how statistically close to the correct scores are we getting? E.g., the prognosticator who guesses a 3-1 score for a 3-2 game would be "off by 1" whereas the guesser who posits a 4-0 score would be "off by 3". Use absolute values or sum-of-squares as measures, perhaps? Just might be interesting as it may highlight someone with a lot of near misses, but nothing to show for it.

[observer]

Holy cow my friend, what do you do during the day?

Set up the spreadsheet Excel wizard. Crunch it. Let us know how it goes?

[MNHockeyFan]

Gotta love the stats - more, more! One item that would be interesting is the "relative correctness" of the scores or perhaps variance/standard deviation. Instead of a binary (correct/incorrect) measure, how statistically close to the correct scores are we getting? E.g., the prognosticator who guesses a 3-1 score for a 3-2 game would be "off by 1" whereas the guesser who posits a 4-0 score would be "off by 3". Use absolute values or sum-of-squares as measures, perhaps? Just might be interesting as it may highlight someone with a lot of near misses, but nothing to show for it.

Sounds interesting and thanks for the suggestion...I'll try to put something together for next time.

[MNHockeyFan]

Updating season results through Week 11 – our final regular season contest (Week 12) is now underway!

1. Over the past two weeks, the odds of picking a correct score - based on the group's average to date - has reverted back to the previous average. Out of 2374 total scores that have been posted by our group, only 77 have been correct. This is 3.24%, or about 1 in 31.

2. NEW!!! Participation Awards!!! With just one to go, the following six prognosticators have participated in every one of the contests held this season:

MNHockeyFan
Silent But Deadly
Knight7
FlyingWarrior
D16Dad
ayhfan

(and four others – hockeyfan87, woogieboogiewoogie, sinbin and capitalpride – have missed just once, so they also earn a Varsity Letter!)

3. Of those who’ve participated in at least half (5) of the contests held to date (10) here are our leaders:

a. Number of 1st Place finishes (including ties):
MNHockeyFan – 3
ayhfan – 3

capitalpride – 2
mnhockey3535 - 2
Nordic – 2

Silent But Deadly - 1
woogieboogiewoogie - 1
sinbin – 1
Otter – 1
KRACH - 1

b. Number of correct scores:
Nordic – 8

MNHockeyFan – 7
D16Dad – 7

Silent But Deadly - 6
sinbin – 6

hockeyfan87 - 5
ayhfan - 5
mnhockey3535 – 5

Otter – 4
capitalpride – 4
KRACH - 4
hckynut12 – 4

woogieboogiewoogie – 3
FlyingWarrior – 3

Two with 2
Two with 1

c. Correct scores as a percent of the total number of scores each has posted:
Nordic - 6.3%
MNHockeyFan - 4.5%
D16Dad - 4.5%
sinbin - 4.3%
mnhockey3535 - 4.2%
hckynut12 - 4.2%
Silent But Deadly - 3.9%
hockeyfan87 – 3.6%
ayhfan – 3.2%
Otter - 3.2%
KRACH - 3.2%
(all others below 3%)

Average for all participants/posted games: 3.24% (down from 3.5% through Week 9.

d. Percent of total available points achieved*:
MNHockeyFan – 67.9% (hanging on by just a thread – the boogieman is right on my heels!)
woogieboogiewoogie - 67.8%
hckynut12 – 66.1%
sinbin – 65.4%
ayhfan - 64.3%
hockeyfan87 - 63.6%
Silent But Deadly - 63.1%
FlyingWarrior – 63.1%
capitalpride – 63.0%
mnhockey3535 – 61.7%
Hieronymus – 61.1%
(all others below 60% or have less than 50% weekly participation)

Average for all participants/posted games: 61.8% (down from 62.9% through Week 9).
(KRACH has also slipped – now at 58.6%, down from 61.1% through Week 9)


*Notes:
1. Percentages adjusted for the weeks each person actually participated.
2. Total number of available points for those participating in the 10 contests so far: 168 (this includes the semifinal and final rounds of the two tournaments that were part of Week 6 & 7 combined).
3. Bonus points for correct scores are included – without them the percentages shown under d. above would be slightly lower!

[MNHockeyFan]

Here are the Final Stats for the eleven “pick ‘em” contests that were held during the regular season. Weeks 6 & 7 (held over the Holidays) were combined into one contest which is why the latest is referred to as ‘Week 12’.

PARTICIPATION AWARDS
The following six prognosticators earn the much coveted ‘Prognosticator Varsity Letter’ for participating in all 11 contests this year:
Silent But Deadly
Knight7
FlyingWarrior
D16Dad
ayhfan
MNHockeyFan

Three others – hockeyfan87, woogieboogiewoogie and sinbin – missed just one of the eleven weekly contests, so they earn an "Honorable Mention" award.

LEADERS
Of those who participated in at least half (6+) of the contests held to date (11), here are our leaders in the various categories:

a. Number of 1st Place finishes (including ties):
MNHockeyFan – 4

ayhfan – 3

Silent But Deadly - 2
capitalpride – 2
mnhockey3535 - 2
Nordic – 2

woogieboogiewoogie - 1
sinbin – 1
Otter – 1
KRACH - 1

b. Number of correct scores:
Nordic – 9
D16Dad – 9
MNHockeyFan – 9

Silent But Deadly – 8

hockeyfan87 - 7

sinbin – 6
Otter – 6
hckynut12 – 6

ayhfan – 5
mnhockey3535 – 5
KRACH - 5

Knight7 – 4
FlyingWarrior – 4
capitalpride – 4

woogieboogiewoogie – 3

One with 2
Two with 1

c. Correct scores as a percent of the total number of games (scores) each has posted:
Nordic - 6.3%

hckynut12 - 5.4%

MNHockeyFan - 5.3%
D16Dad - 5.3%

Silent But Deadly - 4.7%

hockeyfan87 – 4.5%

Otter - 4.3%

mnhockey3535 - 4.2%

sinbin - 3.8%

KRACH - 3.5%
(all others below 3%)

Average for all participants/posted games during regular season: 3.6%
(about 1 of 28 picks, on average, has been a correct score)

d. Percent of total available points achieved*:
1. MNHockeyFan – 69.2%

2. woogieboogiewoogie - 66.9%

3. hckynut12 – 65.9%

4. Silent But Deadly - 64.9%
hockeyfan87 - 64.9%

6. sinbin – 64.7%

7. FlyingWarrior – 63.8%
ayhfan - 63.8%

9. capitalpride – 63.0%

10. mnhockey3535 – 61.7%

11. Hieronymus – 61.6%

12. Knight7 – 60.0%

(all others below 60% or have less than 50% participation)

Average for all participants/posted games for regular season: 62.4%

Note: KRACH finished at 59.9%, so us humans beat the computer!)


*Notes:
1. Percentages adjusted for the weeks each person actually participated.
2. Total number of available points for those participating in the eleven contests during the regular season: 185 (this includes the semifinal and final rounds of the two tournaments that were part of Week 6 & 7 combined).
3. Bonus points for correct scores are included – without them the percentages shown under d. above would be slightly lower!