gray5 wrote:I believe the seeding committee will find someway to not put that 5 team on the outside of sees vs DE in the first round. Dont they owe it to the team and fans...
I agree, they should never have the "#5" play the #1.
Sincerely,
Grand Rapids vs. Edina, 2007
All kidding aside, how do they do the matchups? Is it a drawing with witnessess? Any chance of somebody someday shooting it on a FlipCam and putting it up on YouTube an hour later just to show there's no tom foolery going on?
I'm not going conspiricy on it all, but it does make you raise an eyebrow when the past two years, the #1 seeds in both A & AA have gotten what was considered the 8 seed. The statistical probability of that happening is extremely remote.
As for this year, the bottom line is the entire body of work has to be taken into account, not just a section game or two. As impressive as Benilde was last night (personally, I feel that if they play the way they played last night, they take the title), if East, MG & Eagan all hold serve, they, along with Edina, should be the top-4 seeds.
My personal rankings, if all holds:
1) East
2) Maple Grove
3) Edina
4) Eagan
And I love that any one of those teams is going to draw Benilde. I think the seeding has increased the quality of the semis for sure, especially in A. But we don't get as great of quarterfinal games now. East-WBL last year has not been the norm. You still have some upsets, like '07 & '09 with Edina, but I wouldn't consider those as extremely drama filled, heart attack filled games which make sections & the tourney great.
gray5 wrote:I believe the seeding committee will find someway to not put that 5 team on the outside of sees vs DE in the first round. Dont they owe it to the team and fans...
I agree, they should never have the "#5" play the #1.
Sincerely,
Grand Rapids vs. Edina, 2007
All kidding aside, how do they do the matchups? Is it a drawing with witnessess? Any chance of somebody someday shooting it on a FlipCam and putting it up on YouTube an hour later just to show there's no tom foolery going on?
I'm not going conspiricy on it all, but it does make you raise an eyebrow when the past two years, the #1 seeds in both A & AA have gotten what was considered the 8 seed. The statistical probability of that happening is extremely remote.
As for this year, the bottom line is the entire body of work has to be taken into account, not just a section game or two. As impressive as Benilde was last night (personally, I feel that if they play the way they played last night, they take the title), if East, MG & Eagan all hold serve, they, along with Edina, should be the top-4 seeds.
My personal rankings, if all holds:
1) East
2) Maple Grove
3) Edina
4) Eagan
And I love that any one of those teams is going to draw Benilde. I think the seeding has increased the quality of the semis for sure, especially in A. But we don't get as great of quarterfinal games now. East-WBL last year has not been the norm. You still have some upsets, like '07 & '09 with Edina, but I wouldn't consider those as extremely drama filled, heart attack filled games which make sections & the tourney great.
No kidding! Like I said in a diff thread, I would hate to be a seeded team if BSM comes in unseeded (very likely) I think after last night, they are gonna be tough to beat. Lets not forget though, everyone was just assuming after the beating Tonka put on East for hockey day minnesota that their rematch was a guaranteed state final. Anything can happen this time of year, just ask the 97 DE team, 2000 Elk River team, 2006 Holy Angels, 08 and 09 Edina, 10 Tonka team,etc. I think the potential field in AA could bring one of the best tourneys in recent memory.
goldy313 wrote:I do think one top seeded team will lose their section game. I can't remember a field being this tough with nearly every team in the top 10.
I agree. One of these teams will bite it besides Tonka last night. Even 6 #1 seeds would be a lot, given past history.
Does anyone have the info on hand - for AA what was the most #1 seeds to make it to a tournament in a given year?
Doc Holliday wrote:
All kidding aside, how do they do the matchups? Is it a drawing with witnessess? Any chance of somebody someday shooting it on a FlipCam and putting it up on YouTube an hour later just to show there's no tom foolery going on?
I'm not going conspiricy on it all, but it does make you raise an eyebrow when the past two years, the #1 seeds in both A & AA have gotten what was considered the 8 seed. The statistical probability of that happening is extremely remote.
The top 4 are seeded by the coaches, then the rest are randomly assigned. I remember watching this live on 45 a few years back.
You're right, there is statistically a slightly more than 6% chance of it happening.
Too bad the top 6 aren't seeded.
It's funny. The Minnetonka team I saw beat Wayzata Saturday was the best team I had seen all year. Nothing like the team that I saw play one-goal games with Edina (losing one, winning one in ot) and Eden Praire. And Benilde has looked very mediocre in a lot of games this year, and then they show up Wednesday and make Minnetonka look like a nothing team. It was that bad. Based on watching that game, I would seed them at least second, or even first, because in that one game they looked far more unbeatable than Edina, Eagan, Maple Grove, or I dare say, Duluth East.
But I think if East and MG win their finals, Benilde will not get seeded. They may well be the best team in the state at this very moment and will prove that at state. Or, they may have the type of players, and Minnetonka the type of team, that gave Benilde a huge edge on an Olympic sheet. Their passes were to forwards who were far to the outside of the Minnetonka defense, who could then skate in with speed. They still needed to get through the defense, but their forwards are great and Minnetonka's defense is its weak spot. The first two goals I think may not have happened on a tighter surface. With Minnetonka playing from behind, Benilde's power play goal made it all but impossible for Minnetonka to come back on such a good team. Minnetonka started playing desperately, and as so often happens the defending team takes advantage. My point is, if you're on the committee ranking the teams it's just one game. A great game, but just one. Benilde lost six games this year despite playing a cupcake conference schedule--not the team's fault, and I think we all applaud them for getting out of the North Suburban next year--but the team's record against top twenty teams was just 5-5. How they are playing right now may well come into play as a tie-breaker, but their record doesn't earn them the tie.
Also, giving them a seed would be ranking a third seed (albeit in section six) ahead of the top seed in section two or three. Not likely, when Edina beat the second seed (Eden Prairie) three times, and Eagan barely lost earlier in the year.
The first year (2007) they committed to following the final Let's PLay Hockey rankings for 1-4. The last rankings had Edina four, Eagan five, and Benilde six. But recently they've been a bit more independent, and if rankings were to be done based on this last week I would think it's at least arguable that Benilde would move up.
The question is whether Benilde's win makes Eagan or Edina look worse than their records. I just don't see it. Both teams have better records against tougher overall schedules. Benilde did play better high end teams than Eagan--both lost to Minnetonka and Burnsville in the regular season, and Benilde lost to Maple Grove twice, Shattuck (a loss that shouldn't really be considered and likely won't be) and Moorhead. Eagan lost to Eden Prairie and tied Jefferson. I think that's all about a wash, given Maple Grove's strength. But in terms of positive games, Benilde and Eagan both beat Hill Murray, while Benilde also beat Wayzata and Moorhead. Eagan's counter would be two wins over Lakeville South, and a split with Burnsville.
Although Benilde played a slightly better high end schedule, it played at least nine games against teams no better than the very bottom of the South Suburban, i.e. Rosemount and Kennedy. I guess that is why Benilde's strength of schedule is said to be somewhat less overall than Eagan's.
I certainly don't see Benllde ranked ahead of Edina. Both teams were swept by Maple Grove and split with Minnetonka, and both teams beat Wayzata. Although Edina was 1-1 against Wayzata and Benilde was 1-0, Benilde's win was 4-3 and a close game. Edina beat Burnsville twice, whereas Benilde lost 5-1. Benilde beat Hill Murray and split with Moorhead, while Edina beat Eden Prairie three times. Again, not that much difference, but Edina also played and beat Lakeville South, Grand Rapids, Elk River, Blaine, St. Thomas, and White Bear Lake and a significantly harder overall schedule.
Of course, it wouldn't be "wrong" to rank Benilde as high as third (no way they get by Maple Grove, who beat them twice). Assuming they are third, I think Eagan is the odd team out. I say this because Edina beat Minnetonka and Eden Prairie (teams that beat Eagan) and swept Burnsville while Eagan split, and beat Jefferson, against whom Eagan was 1-0-1. More important, Edina handled Burnsville and Jefferson down the stretch, while Eagan lost and tied in the final two weeks. Eagan beat Hill Murray, while Edina beat Wayzata and both teams beat Lakeville South. After that, Edina's schedule was far more difficult. The big difference in the teams' records is that Edina played Maple Grove, Minnetonka, and Eden Prairie eight times collectively and was 4-4. Eagan played only Minnetonka and Eden Prairie, and was 0-2.
Having said all of that, I think Edina's third and Eagan in the end is four and Benilde unseeded. But in therms of actual strength, I think it's pretty even. One thing for sure to me is that I haven't seen Eagan or Edina play all year at the extremely high level it will take to win three games at state given the level of competition this year. In contrast, Benilde looked as good or better last night than anyone I've seen all year, and would be the one team out of the three that I think could win it all.
The one nice thing is that even if Benilde is unseeded, it should be joined by Hill Murray, Moorhead, and Lakeville South. None of these teams is an easy draw. As much as we love upsets, I'm hoping each makes state this year, and we'll have the strongest field ever. (that of course assumes East and Maple Grove win as well).
Finally, I wouldn't put too much stock in seedings this year. As noted above, absent more upsets the unseeded teams will all be tough. But I sure wouldn't want to be the seeded team that draws an unseeded Edina, Eagan, or Benilde. If I were a coach, I'd love to use that "slight" to motivate my team. In most years, they all could be seeded as high as two (as Edina was in 2010 and 2011 after the section upsets). This is going to be one of the greatest tournaments we've seen if the remaining section favorites come through.
Doc Holliday wrote:
All kidding aside, how do they do the matchups? Is it a drawing with witnessess? Any chance of somebody someday shooting it on a FlipCam and putting it up on YouTube an hour later just to show there's no tom foolery going on?
I'm not going conspiricy on it all, but it does make you raise an eyebrow when the past two years, the #1 seeds in both A & AA have gotten what was considered the 8 seed. The statistical probability of that happening is extremely remote.
The top 4 are seeded by the coaches, then the rest are randomly assigned. I remember watching this live on 45 a few years back.
You're right, there is statistically a slightly more than 6% chance of it happening.
Too bad the top 6 aren't seeded.
BSM looked good last night, but I don't think it was enough. Let's say East lays an egg tonight and Andover just destroys them, would they get seeded? They wouldn't and I don't think BSM should either. Plus I think Eagan had an overall better season.
I'm sure this has been beaten to death but I want to know if anyone has any insight other than just personal opinions. When they started seeding teams, why did they only seed 4 and not all 8? If you're going to do any seeding, it seems logical to me to seed all 8 but I'm guessing the high school league had a reason behind 4?
HockeyGuy81 wrote:I'm sure this has been beaten to death but I want to know if anyone has any insight other than just personal opinions. When they started seeding teams, why did they only seed 4 and not all 8? If you're going to do any seeding, it seems logical to me to seed all 8 but I'm guessing the high school league had a reason behind 4?
I remember thinking this was a good idea when they started it, but for the life of me, I cannot remember why I thought this. (I'd rather see 1-8 seeded.)
This is speculation, but the argument may go something like this: we usually have a pretty clear picture of who the top few teams are. But once we get into the 8-15 range in the rankings (which is normally where the unseeded teams come from), it's usually pretty messy, and any one of those teams could beat another on any given night. I'd say this has been true the past few years, where aside from the 1AA rep, there was no huge advantage in drawing one of the nonseeded teams over the others.
WBL last year is a decent example. On paper they probably deserved the 7-seed, but since they were a hot team with nothing to lose, they really were a tougher draw than Moorhead or Blaine.
Just seeding the top 4 is something of a compromise between rewarding the best teams for their achievements and admitting that, beyond that, it's hard to rank the teams definitively. I'm not saying I agree, but there's a certain logic to that.
Otherwise, I'm in agreement with Doc and Rich. And if there really is a conspiracy to rig the first round match-ups somewhat, I'm honestly perfectly fine with that. They've done a great job of mysteriously creating some very good match-ups recently: East-WBL last year, East-Hill the year before; rewarding the top seed with the worst team; some compelling north-vs-southern-private quarterfinals in Class A last year...
rudy wrote:One additional factor in wanting to be seeded, even if the non-seeds are exceptionally strong:
Last change in at least your first game. Edina used it to great advantage in the section final.
Very true. I've been meaning to say this for some time now--whatever else one may think of Curt Giles, he is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the state at matching lines. He's consistently outmaneuvered Tonka and Burnsville in big games in recent years. (A certain northern coach did hold his own against him at State last year, though. )
I would also not rule out the possibility that the state high school league wanted to be sure it didn't "insult" teams by seeding them last as part of why they only seed 1-4. That seems exactly like the kind of thing they'd do (sort of like how the classes in high school football have to be named 5A through 1A, even though it's more cumbersome, because A-E would be too mean).
greyhoundsnation27 wrote:BSM looked good last night, but I don't think it was enough. Let's say East lays an egg tonight and Andover just destroys them, would they get seeded? They wouldn't and I don't think BSM should either. Plus I think Eagan had an overall better season.
xy wrote:I would also not rule out the possibility that the state high school league wanted to be sure it didn't "insult" teams by seeding them last as part of why they only seed 1-4. That seems exactly like the kind of thing they'd do (sort of like how the classes in high school football have to be named 5A through 1A, even though it's more cumbersome, because A-E would be too mean).
xy wrote:I would also not rule out the possibility that the state high school league wanted to be sure it didn't "insult" teams by seeding them last as part of why they only seed 1-4. That seems exactly like the kind of thing they'd do (sort of like how the classes in high school football have to be named 5A through 1A, even though it's more cumbersome, because A-E would be too mean).
Agree!
Yes I understand that the mshsl does not want to insult anyone but honestly, I would rather be seeded 8th than to not be in the tournament at all!
greyhoundsnation27 wrote:BSM looked good last night, but I don't think it was enough. Let's say East lays an egg tonight and Andover just destroys them, would they get seeded? They wouldn't and I don't think BSM should either. Plus I think Eagan had an overall better season.
You're comparing Benilde to Andover?
No, he's making an analogy of a team getting a super impressive victory in a section final and then leap frogging several teams ahead of them to get one of the 4 seeds.
In addition to the other reasons stated by others, I think there was an unstated reason why seeding is 1-4 and not 1-8.
There is often a significant mismatch between the #1 and the team that would be #8. I don't think TV wants a 7-1 game during prime time. Obviously this wouldn't prove true every year, but it would happen often enough. And it's difficult to overestimate the influence of TV on sports, even high school sports.
I think it was in 1998 a very mediocre Owatonna was handled very easily by a good but not great Jefferson. It was a difficult game for all involved. I think Owatonna got just a few shots on goal the whole game. I think the specter of a game like that every year spooked TX execs.
Separately, I don't recall that the first year the Let's Play Hockey ratings were accepted. My thought is that it has always been done by the coaches.
In 2007, the coaches involved agreed among themselves to accept the LPH rankings, likely to avoid controversy. That was their call, not the high school league's, and the coaches have backed away from it since then. At this point the rankings are likely just another pieve of the argument. With Edina, Eagan, and Benilde 4, 5, and 6 in the rankings, picking any two of the three would be reasonable. Not a lot of drop off among those three.
xy wrote:I would also not rule out the possibility that the state high school league wanted to be sure it didn't "insult" teams by seeding them last as part of why they only seed 1-4. That seems exactly like the kind of thing they'd do (sort of like how the classes in high school football have to be named 5A through 1A, even though it's more cumbersome, because A-E would be too mean).
I honestly think that is the reason. In todays 'oversissyfied' world we always want to stay politically correct and not hurt anyone's feelings!
Assuming MG wins section 5, I think the seedings will look like this:
1. East
2. Maple Grove
3. Eagan
4. Edina
As many have said before, BSM would be the unseeded team that the seeded teams would least want to play in the first round. Each of the unseeded teams has at least one great player (Kloos, Bitzer, Guentzel, Sampair, etc (assuming HM makes it), but BSM has several strong weapons, especially on offense.
Everyone says the quarterfinal matchups are random after you seed the top four teams... but why has the #1 seed the last two years played lakeville north (the obvious "8" seed) ?? just curious.
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