Edina is very bad example, as they would not fare as well as you think in Tier I, and they are one of maybe 3 teams in Minnesota that could even compete. The rest of the state is far below that level.Shinbone_News wrote:Oh, and another empirical comparison that speaks to this issue: Watch the Elite League teams play Shattuck-St. Mary's this year. Heck, watch any HS team play SSMA this year. Do the Sabres usually win? Yes, but not always. Are they blow-out games? Rarely. They are often tied or beaten by Elite League teams, and even a lowly single A team (Breck) tied them last year.
And let's not kid ourselves. Not only is SSM a Tier 1 AAA school, they are widely considered the best at nearly every level they play, including the top.
Minnesota kids do fine against Tier 1 AAA hockey.
U18 Hockey tends to be watered down as most of the Top players from elsewhere are playing Junior Hockey in the USHL, WHL, or with the National Development Program. But, that being said, Shattuck Prep is competing with essentially Tier I caliber HS All Star teams, and not HS Teams. Everyone has a bad game, the Breck game is an anomaly. Also, the top Shattuck kids leave after their junior years.
A model similar to the Elite league would be intersting at the younger ages. If you divided the state similarly I believe you could field 6-8 Tier I teams that could play elite local competition, travel less.
To answer the Made/Born argument, it isn't one or the other, it is both. You need both, Great Genetics, and Great Development to make it far. The prime skill development years are 11-14, and if you miss that period you are kind of out of luck. Minnesota kids have gotten better in the past 5-10 years, but so has the competition around the country. Players are way better now across the country than they were 20 years ago. AAA hockey development is the reason local players have kept up. Players are able to compensate for the weaker competition, and inconsistent development in the winter, by going nuts in the summer.
Finally, I think the wrong question is being asked. The question isn't what should/shouldn't happen, it is what WILL happen. Opting out to compete in Tier I/Junior is already happening in mass at the HS level. These are just a few recent examples, as I believe the trend is just beginning. I know of a number of 96 players that would jump at the hat to leave after their junior year to one of these programs.
1. Jack Walker 10th Grade WHL
2. Keegan Iverson 10th Grade WHL
3. Jack Glover 11th grade NDTP
4. Collins 11th grade NDTP
5. Ryan Norman 10th Grade SSM prep
6. Chase Phelps 11th grade SSM prep
7. Paul Bittner 11th grade WHL
8. Luke Voltin USHL 12th Grade
9. Tyler Cammarata 12th Grade
10. Hudson Fasching NDTP 12th grade
11. Mason Morelli NAHL
12. Vinny Letteri USHL 12th Grade
13. Hunter Miska NDTP 12th Grade
14. Clint Lewis NDTP 12th Grade
15. Ian McCoshen USHL 12th Grade
16. Michael Brodzinski USHL 12th Grade
This list is by no means definitive. There are more for sure. The point is, as HS hockey continues to bleed top talent, it will eventually become less competitive, and then almost all top players will leave early. I think this will happen sooner than you think. HS hockey will become more recreational.
This same wave affecting HS hockey, is bubbling beneath the surface in youth hockey. Mark my words, within the next five years this wave will come crashing through, right or wrong.