Section 7AA

[TheHockeyDJ]

Interestingly www.followthepuck.com has the section seeded this way. The guy just doesn't understand you can't seed teams based solely on section record when they don't play the same number of section games or the same teams within the section.

1. East
2. CEC
3. Forest Lake
4. St. Francis
5. Grand Rapids
6. Elk River
7. St. Francis

[TheHockeyDJ]

Great minds think alike DJ. Your current seedlings match mine from a week ago.

Not often over the years we have this much agreement on 7AA, it is usually and argument donnybrook.

[pipersniper12]

Interestingly www.followthepuck.com has the section seeded this way. The guy just doesn't understand you can't seed teams based solely on section record when they don't play the same number of section games or the same teams within the section.

1. East
2. CEC
3. Forest Lake
4. St. Francis
5. Grand Rapids
6. Elk River
7. St. Francis

Pretty sure these are the current section standings not seedings. DJ relax, you don't need to get your breeches balled up!

[northwoods oldtimer]

DJ relax, you don't need to get your breeches balled up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwOh5qoAdv0

[PuckRanger]

Interestingly www.followthepuck.com has the section seeded this way. The guy just doesn't understand you can't seed teams based solely on section record when they don't play the same number of section games or the same teams within the section.

1. East
2. CEC
3. Forest Lake
4. St. Francis
5. Grand Rapids
6. Elk River
7. St. Francis

I assume 7 was meant to be Andover?

Anyway, a case can be made for this seeding, and a very strong one. Head to head is a very strong component to the seeding process. When you look at this on a team by team basis, you can justifiably come to that conclusion.

1. East - Has not been beaten by any section opponent, obvious number one.

2. CEC - Has only lost to East in section play, beat Forest Lake and Cambridge (and Denfeld twice - a team that East lost to.)

3. Forest Lake - Beat St. Francis, Grand Rapids, and STMA; Lost to East and CEC.

4. St. Francis - Beat Grand Rapids, STMA, Cambridge; Lost to Forest Lake

5. Grand Rapids - Has played all and not won a game against any of the four teams above them, beat Elk River (Tied CEC twice)

6. Elk River - Lost to Grand Rapids, Beat Andover twice

7. Andover - Lost to Elk River twice (one in OT) and Duluth East.

8. STMA - Has beaten Cambridge twice, Lost to Forest Lake and St. Francis

9. Cambridge - No section wins, lost to STMA twice, CEC, East, and St. Francis.

As you can see, this is not based solely on overall section record, it is based mostly on head-to-head, which really should carry the most weight.

[MrBoDangles]

DJ relax, you don't need to get your breeches balled up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwOh5qoAdv0

[TheHockeyDJ]

Interestingly www.followthepuck.com has the section seeded this way. The guy just doesn't understand you can't seed teams based solely on section record when they don't play the same number of section games or the same teams within the section.

1. East
2. CEC
3. Forest Lake
4. St. Francis
5. Grand Rapids
6. Elk River
7. St. Francis

I assume 7 was meant to be Andover?

Anyway, a case can be made for this seeding, and a very strong one. Head to head is a very strong component to the seeding process. When you look at this on a team by team basis, you can justifiably come to that conclusion.

1. East - Has not been beaten by any section opponent, obvious number one.

2. CEC - Has only lost to East in section play, beat Forest Lake and Cambridge (and Denfeld twice - a team that East lost to.)

3. Forest Lake - Beat St. Francis, Grand Rapids, and STMA; Lost to East and CEC.

4. St. Francis - Beat Grand Rapids, STMA, Cambridge; Lost to Forest Lake

5. Grand Rapids - Has played all and not won a game against any of the four teams above them, beat Elk River (Tied CEC twice)

6. Elk River - Lost to Grand Rapids, Beat Andover twice

7. Andover - Lost to Elk River twice (one in OT) and Duluth East.

8. STMA - Has beaten Cambridge twice, Lost to Forest Lake and St. Francis

9. Cambridge - No section wins, lost to STMA twice, CEC, East, and St. Francis.

As you can see, this is not based solely on overall section record, it is based mostly on head-to-head, which really should carry the most weight.

In theory, head-to-head should carry the most weight. However, when these teams don't play the same teams in their section or the same number of games, then it doesn't make sense. The proof this doesn't work to seed them by section record is the fact the coaches themselves drive (some over 2 hours) to meet at the end of the year to discuss and vote because it just isn't this easy. Another thing is history itself shows that section record and head-to-head games alone have never been #1. In 7AA it has always been the full body of work. Head-to-head comes into play when 2 teams have an almost identically ranked full schedule result in their minds. Another flaw to seeding by section record is you are telling these teams like GR, ER, CEC, and East that when they play Edina or Eden Prairie that those games are as meaningless as a mid-November scrimmage. This is why a couple years ago Dave Esse on an mnhockeyhub.com interview said he would like to see conferences wiped out for HS hockey and have teams with a section schedule that would consist of a home and away game with every team in your section. Then it would determine the seedings by section record and the coaches wouldn't have to meet anymore. Another thing, if section record meant everything, I'm pretty sure everyone of the top 7 teams would want 2+ games with STMA and Cambridge every year to pad their section record.

[PuckRanger]

In theory, head-to-head should carry the most weight. However, when these teams don't play the same teams in their section or the same number of games, then it doesn't make sense. The proof this doesn't work to seed them by section record is the fact the coaches themselves drive (some over 2 hours) to meet at the end of the year to discuss and vote because it just isn't this easy. Another thing is history itself shows that section record and head-to-head games alone have never been #1. In 7AA it has always been the full body of work. Head-to-head comes into play when 2 teams have an almost identically ranked full schedule result in their minds. Another flaw to seeding by section record is you are telling these teams like GR, ER, CEC, and East that when they play Edina or Eden Prairie that those games are as meaningless as a mid-November scrimmage. This is why a couple years ago Dave Esse on an mnhockeyhub.com interview said he would like to see conferences wiped out for HS hockey and have teams with a section schedule that would consist of a home and away game with every team in your section. Then it would determine the seedings by section record and the coaches wouldn't have to meet anymore. Another thing, if section record meant everything, I'm pretty sure everyone of the top 7 teams would want 2+ games with STMA and Cambridge every year to pad their section record.

I agree, its not section record. If it was, Andover would be tied with STMA for the bottom seed and St. Francis would be the #2 with a 3-1 record. As of now, this year is a little different than years past because there actually is enough head-to-head comparison and the results do not contradict one another. Normally, that is not the case.

Head to head (section record has nothing to do with it) is what I'm talking about. East beat CEC, CEC beat Forest Lake, Forest Lake beat St. Francis, St. Francis beat Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids beat Elk River, Elk River Beat Andover, STMA beat Cambridge. None of those teams have won a game against anyone above them. It becomes a difficult argument in these seeding discussions when you have direct results like that.

Now, if the teams in the north rarely played any of the teams from the south like some years past, then what you said applies, but there has been plenty of interaction this year and it hasn't had the mixed results like years past where the #5 beat #2 and #4 beat #1, etc., which forces you to look at more broad results and more common opponents. There are still some games left that could change that, but as of now, its a viable and realistic argument.

You are right though... Ultimately, it is the coaches who decide. But from most of the coach's individual points of view, these spots are probably where they feel they deserve to be. The question is how many don't feel that way, and how many politic and seed for matchups and/or based on a North/South bias.

[TheHockeyDJ]

In theory, head-to-head should carry the most weight. However, when these teams don't play the same teams in their section or the same number of games, then it doesn't make sense. The proof this doesn't work to seed them by section record is the fact the coaches themselves drive (some over 2 hours) to meet at the end of the year to discuss and vote because it just isn't this easy. Another thing is history itself shows that section record and head-to-head games alone have never been #1. In 7AA it has always been the full body of work. Head-to-head comes into play when 2 teams have an almost identically ranked full schedule result in their minds. Another flaw to seeding by section record is you are telling these teams like GR, ER, CEC, and East that when they play Edina or Eden Prairie that those games are as meaningless as a mid-November scrimmage. This is why a couple years ago Dave Esse on an mnhockeyhub.com interview said he would like to see conferences wiped out for HS hockey and have teams with a section schedule that would consist of a home and away game with every team in your section. Then it would determine the seedings by section record and the coaches wouldn't have to meet anymore. Another thing, if section record meant everything, I'm pretty sure everyone of the top 7 teams would want 2+ games with STMA and Cambridge every year to pad their section record.

I agree, its not section record. If it was, Andover would be tied with STMA for the bottom seed and St. Francis would be the #2 with a 3-1 record. As of now, this year is a little different than years past because there actually is enough head-to-head comparison and the results do not contradict one another. Normally, that is not the case.

Head to head (section record has nothing to do with it) is what I'm talking about. East beat CEC, CEC beat Forest Lake, Forest Lake beat St. Francis, St. Francis beat Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids beat Elk River, Elk River Beat Andover, STMA beat Cambridge. None of those teams have won a game against anyone above them. It becomes a difficult argument in these seeding discussions when you have direct results like that.

Now, if the teams in the north rarely played any of the teams from the south like some years past, then what you said applies, but there has been plenty of interaction this year and it hasn't had the mixed results like years past where the #5 beat #2 and #4 beat #1, etc., which forces you to look at more broad results and more common opponents. There are still some games left that could change that, but as of now, its a viable and realistic argument.

You are right though... Ultimately, it is the coaches who decide. But from most of the coach's individual points of view, these spots are probably where they feel they deserve to be. The question is how many don't feel that way, and how many politic and seed for matchups and/or based on a North/South bias.

It is a valid point. However, looking at it only this way completely eliminates the weight of the full schedule result which is completely wrong. You can't eliminate Grand Rapids victories vs. Hermantown, Elk River, Roseau, Warroad, etc. Also, you can't ignore the high number of losses Forest Lake and St. Francis have accumulated while playing a much weaker schedule, especially St. Francis. Every year in the past the full schedule result has mattered and every regular season game is part of the resume.

[karl(east)]

Out of curiosity, I went looking around to see if the MSHSL has any actual guidelines for seeding. I couldn't find any, though they do have some examples of the forms coaches fill out when establishing their teams' credentials. Here is an example from the state football tournament:

http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/seeding/show ... hoolid=139

While I wouldn't read too much into that sort of thing, it does suggest there is room for consideration of factors beyond head-to-head results, with its mentions of top players, circumstances that may have hurt a team, and victories over ranked teams (with no mention of bad losses).

Then there's also QRF; though the coaches still meet for hockey, I'm sure they can, and perhaps do, use it as a guide. I prefer other computerized rankings, but this is the sanctioned one, so we'll run with it. Right now, QRF has Grand Rapids as a pretty clear #2 in 7AA (#14 in AA). After that, it's Elk River (24), Forest Lake (25), CEC (26), and St. Francis (27), though those four are so close together that we can't predict where they'll wind up quite yet.

PS2 goes: 2. GR (#10 AA), 3. CEC (11), 4. ER (18), 5. FL (24), 6. Andover (29), 7. St. Francis (37)
USHSHO: 2. GR (9), 3. CEC (13), 4. ER (15), 5. FL (26), 6. Andover (27), 7. St. Francis (37)

Just some food for thought; I don't really have a horse in this race, but in general I'd be an advocate of using a more holistic form of ranking and then using head-to-head results to separate teams that are somewhat close, instead of running straight to the transitive property (A beats B beats C etc.) as a means of separating teams. In this case the transitive property does produce some clear logic, but just because it is logical this one time does not mean it really is a good tool for ranking teams.

[allstatebenders]

In theory, head-to-head should carry the most weight. However, when these teams don't play the same teams in their section or the same number of games, then it doesn't make sense. The proof this doesn't work to seed them by section record is the fact the coaches themselves drive (some over 2 hours) to meet at the end of the year to discuss and vote because it just isn't this easy. Another thing is history itself shows that section record and head-to-head games alone have never been #1. In 7AA it has always been the full body of work. Head-to-head comes into play when 2 teams have an almost identically ranked full schedule result in their minds. Another flaw to seeding by section record is you are telling these teams like GR, ER, CEC, and East that when they play Edina or Eden Prairie that those games are as meaningless as a mid-November scrimmage. This is why a couple years ago Dave Esse on an mnhockeyhub.com interview said he would like to see conferences wiped out for HS hockey and have teams with a section schedule that would consist of a home and away game with every team in your section. Then it would determine the seedings by section record and the coaches wouldn't have to meet anymore. Another thing, if section record meant everything, I'm pretty sure everyone of the top 7 teams would want 2+ games with STMA and Cambridge every year to pad their section record.

I agree, its not section record. If it was, Andover would be tied with STMA for the bottom seed and St. Francis would be the #2 with a 3-1 record. As of now, this year is a little different than years past because there actually is enough head-to-head comparison and the results do not contradict one another. Normally, that is not the case.

Head to head (section record has nothing to do with it) is what I'm talking about. East beat CEC, CEC beat Forest Lake, Forest Lake beat St. Francis, St. Francis beat Grand Rapids, Grand Rapids beat Elk River, Elk River Beat Andover, STMA beat Cambridge. None of those teams have won a game against anyone above them. It becomes a difficult argument in these seeding discussions when you have direct results like that.

Now, if the teams in the north rarely played any of the teams from the south like some years past, then what you said applies, but there has been plenty of interaction this year and it hasn't had the mixed results like years past where the #5 beat #2 and #4 beat #1, etc., which forces you to look at more broad results and more common opponents. There are still some games left that could change that, but as of now, its a viable and realistic argument.

You are right though... Ultimately, it is the coaches who decide. But from most of the coach's individual points of view, these spots are probably where they feel they deserve to be. The question is how many don't feel that way, and how many politic and seed for matchups and/or based on a North/South bias.

It is a valid point. However, looking at it only this way completely eliminates the weight of the full schedule result which is completely wrong. You can't eliminate Grand Rapids victories vs. Hermantown, Elk River, Roseau, Warroad, etc. Also, you can't ignore the high number of losses Forest Lake and St. Francis have accumulated while playing a much weaker schedule, especially St. Francis. Every year in the past the full schedule result has mattered and every regular season game is part of the resume.

The victories you just posted are against A teams and some mediocre AA team and ER. The only impressive victory is the BSM game, but that was in some pretty tough conditions and that's just a bad game to see what team is better. And GR has had some embarrassing losses to bad teams. Also, the two ties to Cloquet don't help. I only see GR getting seeded 4-6, I don't think they can get any higher than that unless something substantial happens. They'll be lucky if they make it to the semis.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Let's take the focus off of GR for a second, outside of their "upset" wins against GR, what has St. Francis or Forest Lake done of any significance? You mention Rapids ties vs. CEC, and CEC blew out FL on their rink 7-1. These results coming in the middle portion of the season. St. Francis has some pretty attention grabbing victories don't they: Cambridge, Irondale, Robbinsdale Cooper, Chisago Lakes area, Princeton, and Denfeld. In the words of the Common Man, "Well isn't that SOMETHING!". Forest Lake has better wins than St. Francis in beating unranked Cretin and Stillwater (x2). However, Forest Lake was also defeated by East Ridge, Hastings, shutout by WBL, creamed twice by Moundsview, and lost by 3 to Duluth East (GR lost by 1 to East). So the thing with FL and St.F. is they want a high seed based on one win. Then they have almost nothing to show, and comparing the wins they have, Rapids has been far more impressive and the LPH and computer rankings confirm this. I mean, FL and St.F. aren't even honorable mention for the top 20.

[MNhockey29]

FYI the Cloquet/Forest Lake game was a lot closer game than the score, FL ran out of gas at the end and couldnt score. But heres my section seedings.

1.DULUTH EAST
2.ELK RIVER
3.CLOQUET
4.GRAND RAPIDS
5.FOREST LAKE
6.ST.FRANCIS
7.ANDOVER
8.STMA
9.CAMBRIDGE

[slyer]

looks good

[sanryam]

7AA Head to head records (just for reference)

Duluth East
1-0 vs Cambridge
1-0 vs CEC
1-0 vs Andover
1-0 vs Grand Rapids
1-0 vs Forest Lake
UPCOMING: CEC, STMA

CEC
1-0 vs CI
1-0 vs Forest Lake
0-0-2 vs Grand Rapids
0-1 vs Duluth East
UPCOMING: D. East, Andover, SF

Elk River
2-0 vs Andover
0-1 vs Grand Rapids

Grand Rapids
1-0 vs ER
0-0-2 vs CEC
0-1 vs Forest Lake
0-1 vs St. Francis
0-1 vs Duluth East

Forest Lake
1-0 vs STMA
1-0 vs St. Francis
1-0 vs Grand Rapids
0-1 vs CEC
0-1 vs Duluth East

St. Francis
1-0 vs Grand Rapids
1-0 vs STMA
1-0 vs CI
0-1 vs Forest Lake
UPCOMING: CEC

Andover
0-2 vs ER
0-1 vs Duluth East
UPCOMING: CEC

STMA
2-0 vs CI
0-1 vs Forest Lake
0-1 vs St. Francis
UPCOMING: D. East

CI
0'fer

[TheHockeyDJ]

The gap is clear enough between the top 7 and STMA and Cambridge that those games should not be considered when seeding the top 7, especially when GR and ER don't even play them. Just another reason why it's full season body of work and why the pagestat actually correctly seeded the top 6 (maybe all 9, I'd have to look again at 7-9) in 7AA last year. I believe in 10-11 the pagestat only had 2 teams flip flopped from the top 6 in the seedings.

[TheHockeyDJ]

One more thing I want to add is everyone is so quick to point out the loss GR had to St. Francis, even Duluth East had a similar loss to Denfeld in terms of shots on goal and Denfeld was beat by St. Francis earlier in the year, so it's not like GR is the only team to get knocked off by an inferior opponent because they had a hot goalie that night.

[Usthockey13]

True but GR also lost to St Fancis

One more thing I want to add is everyone is so quick to point out the loss GR had to St. Francis, even Duluth East had a similar loss to Denfeld in terms of shots on goal and Denfeld was beat by St. Francis earlier in the year, so it's not like GR is the only team to get knocked off by an inferior opponent because they had a hot goalie that night.

[TheHockeyDJ]

True but GR also lost to St Fancis

One more thing I want to add is everyone is so quick to point out the loss GR had to St. Francis, even Duluth East had a similar loss to Denfeld in terms of shots on goal and Denfeld was beat by St. Francis earlier in the year, so it's not like GR is the only team to get knocked off by an inferior opponent because they had a hot goalie that night.

Isn't that what I said? Again, if you are looking only at section record, then basically you are saying Elk River can't improve their resume with wins against Blaine and Centennial, which is a load of BS. The bottom line is this section has always been seeded by full body of work and not teams within the section extracting one game off a 25 game schedule to make their case. Upsets happen to everyone every year. Considering the only two losses GR has besides FL and St. F (while they have many losses to unranked teams) is Edina and Duluth East, that should give GR a higher seed than St. F or FL. Also, looking at full body of work, there is no logical way to put St. F or FL ahead of either Cloquet or Elk River.

[Usthockey13]

sorry DJ i ment Forest Lake and I still think GR is the 2 seed.

True but GR also lost to St Fancis

One more thing I want to add is everyone is so quick to point out the loss GR had to St. Francis, even Duluth East had a similar loss to Denfeld in terms of shots on goal and Denfeld was beat by St. Francis earlier in the year, so it's not like GR is the only team to get knocked off by an inferior opponent because they had a hot goalie that night.

Isn't that what I said? Again, if you are looking only at section record, then basically you are saying Elk River can't improve their resume with wins against Blaine and Centennial, which is a load of BS. The bottom line is this section has always been seeded by full body of work and not teams within the section extracting one game off a 25 game schedule to make their case. Upsets happen to everyone every year. Considering the only two losses GR has besides FL and St. F (while they have many losses to unranked teams) is Edina and Duluth East, that should give GR a higher seed than St. F or FL. Also, looking at full body of work, there is no logical way to put St. F or FL ahead of either Cloquet or Elk River.

[elliott70]

7AA coaches vote the seeding...

what matters is not head to head, overall record or anything else.
What matters is what each individual coach thinks.

Knowing that, I would make sure every game matters to my team.

[alcloseshaver]

Thank god we have the seeding topic thread to keep us interested...
The QRF formula is used mostly in football, basketball hardly uses it and even section 8AAAA is going with a coaches vote this year. Coaches by nature are paranoid and don't want to give up any voice in this process. The only real drama left is if ER/CEC are going to be 3/4 seed. ER needs to beat MG and Cent. and their two other easier games and that should be enough. CEC has some tough games left. GR has done enough to get the 2 seed. FL possible 4-5 seed. St. Franny, really, they play in the N. Suburban Conf, enough said. Avoid East in the semi's and give yourself a chance in the final should the coaches focus.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Seedings aside, I think there is respect between the teams 1-7, no disrespect to STMA or Cambridge, they just have no shot of even making the game with East close.

As for possible match ups, Rapids vs. St. Francis would be interesting because of the December result, though I doubt their goalie can pull that off twice and Rapids might be playing their best right now gaining momentum. Andover at Elk River given their last game was decided by one goal would have a lot of intrigue. Forest Lake at Cloquet would be another great game to watch, are these teams in the same place they were when CEC won 7-1? Duluth East is the clear favorite, but the Hounds are in a tricky place given they will be playing at noon on Semifinal Saturday, maybe that is the perfect place for a team like Cloquet to jump them for an upset.

[alcloseshaver]

Body of work is only logical with the disparity in the number of games played within the section. GR, ER, East, CEC, play a quality non-conference schedule. CEC and GR play alot of small schools in conference and that doesn't help. They can't go independent like East. I give CEC credit for being one of the smaller AA schools but what woulf there record be with East's schedule/

[TheHockeyDJ]

Body of work is only logical with the disparity in the number of games played within the section. GR, ER, East, CEC, play a quality non-conference schedule. CEC and GR play alot of small schools in conference and that doesn't help. They can't go independent like East. I give CEC credit for being one of the smaller AA schools but what woulf there record be with East's schedule/

You also have to consider WHO in Class A. Hermantown tied Eagan and was otherwise undefeated vs. Class AA teams until Rapids beat em in OT. Teams like Marshall, Denfeld, and Hibbing aren't at St. Thomas level, but they are just as good as some of the teams in that 15-30 range in Class AA.
The other thing I can't stand about section record is counting games vs. STMA and Cambridge who clearly aren't near the level of anyone in the top 7.