AA Rankings for 2/10/13

[karl(east)]

We’re down to the bittersweet end to the regular season. Your last in-season set of rankings:

1. Hill-Murray (20-2-1)
-For a second straight week, it was easy pickings for the Pioneers against Classic Suburban competition. After completing their conference schedule on Tuesday, they have a road trip up to Moorhead for one last playoff tune-up, though with the Spuds’ recent struggles, that game may not be as big of a test as the Pioneers might like. Regardless, 4AA is theirs to lose, and if they make State, they’ll be the top seed.
This week: Tues at Simley, Sat at Moorhead

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (18-5)
-The Red Knights opened their week with a signature win against Shattuck, and ended it by clinging to a narrow 3-2 win at Eden Prairie. The defense and goaltending have certainly improved, but not to the point where this team can be a convincing favorite in a 6AA semifinal. While Totino is decent, they shouldn’t have too much trouble ending their season with a couple of wins.
This week: Tues vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at Stillwater

3. Duluth East (20-4)
-The offense has not been prolific of late, but the Hounds continue to plug along, beating Cloquet for a second time and also handling Lakeville North. They seem to play to the level of their competition at times, though that may simply be a function of the defense-first approach. Their last regular season game will be, perhaps unexpectedly, a pretty big test; Tartan is hot right now, and fresh off a tie with St. Thomas. The Titans are the sort of upset-minded opponent the Hounds will have to fend off to win another 7AA title.
This week: Sat at Tartan

4. Minnetonka (17-5-1)
-The Skippers locked up the Lake Conference title this past week as they hammered out wins over Hopkins and Wayzata, their tight defense leading the way once again. As they’ve come to expect, the week ahead looks very difficult: they can complete a perfect conference record with a win over Eden Prairie, and surging Blaine will be an interesting test as we head into sections.
This week: Thurs at #10 Eden Prairie, Sat at #7 Blaine

5. Eagan (19-3-1)
-The Wildcats kept up their strong second half going this past week, plowing past possible section opponent Hastings and steamrolling Lakeville North. Given some of their impressive margins of victory recently, it’s tempting to move them higher, but with the teams in front of them also playing well and a schedule that didn’t really give them a chance to show improvement against the very best teams, the case really isn’t there. This week they’ll look to avenge their only loss in the past two months when they pay a visit to Eastview.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Sat at Apple Valley

6. Edina (18-5)
-The Hornets continue to raise some doubts down the stretch, as they needed overtime to escape with a win against Cretin and also had to scrape out a narrow victory over Hopkins. That isn’t enough to hurt their ranking, but it does make one wonder why a team that is this talented is flattening out down the stretch. One last difficult week of Lake Conference play could be an interesting bellwether for how their section tournament will go.
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Wayzata, Sat vs. #10 Eden Prairie

7. Blaine (17-4-1)
-The Bengals are quite possibly the hottest team in the state right now; they’ve won eleven in a row, and blowout victories over Centennial and Elk River add some exclamation points to that run. They’re undefeated in the Northwest Suburban, but they’ve had some issues with top teams outside of the conference; this week’s game with Minnetonka gives us a good chance to see if their apparent improvement can translate into games against the sort of competition they might face at State. Their other two contests this week aren’t automatic wins either, though they beat both teams comfortably the first time around.
This week: Tues at Andover, Thurs at Maple Grove, Sat vs. #4 Minnetonka

8. Wayzata (17-6)
-The Trojans’ late-season slide continues, as they have now lost their past four games against ranked teams. The games have been competitive, so they could certainly turn around some of these scores in sections if they get it going again, but after walking a narrow defensive tightrope for most of the season, they’re showing signs of teetering off. This week’s game at Edina gives them one last chance to get things in order before sections.
This week: Thurs at #6 Edina, Sat vs. Hopkins

9. Grand Rapids (16-4-3)
-The Halloween Machine rolled to comfortable victories over Hibbing and International Falls, and has not lost in the past month. Despite resting several top players against the Falls, the offense certainly seems to be getting on track; they’ll need continued production up and down the lineup to get through a difficult 7AA. They close out with a home game against Duluth Denfeld, which could be interesting if the Hunters are on.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Denfeld

10. Eden Prairie (11-11-1)
-The Eagles kept their strong second half going this past week, as they picked up a win over Wayzata and had a strong comeback fall just short against Benilde. Though their depth is not phenomenal, the lower lines have been playing better lately, and Gerdes appears to be the hot hand in goal right now. Once again, they don’t have any breaks on their schedule, with both Minnetonka and Edina looming. A win (or two) this week will push them even further into the elite group of teams, while two losses will drive them down, as it’s hard to have a sub-.500 team in the top ten, no matter how close the losses to top teams are.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Minnetonka, Sat at #6 Edina

11. Prior Lake (15-7)
-A big 4-0 win over Burnsville should be enough to give the Lakers the 2-seed in 2AA, and sets them up for their deepest postseason run yet. In spite of that, they slide back in the rankings; surging Eden Prairie had to be accommodated somehow, and the Lakers did lose to the Eagles earlier in the year. That doesn’t change the fact that this team can compete with anyone when they’re on. They have a busy final week, and all of their opponents are capable of pulling the upset, though the Lakers will be favored in each game.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Thurs at Rochester Lourdes, Sat vs. Eastview

12. Centennial (17-4-1)
-The Cougars restored some order after their ugly Blaine loss by beating Anoka and Elk River by three goals each. The shutout of the Elks is especially encouraging; this team will have to rely on defense and goaltending if they want to go to St. Paul, especially if it comes down to a rematch with red-hot Blaine. They finish up their regular season against two of the weaker Northwest Suburban teams.
This week: Thurs vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. Osseo

13. Burnsville (13-9-1)
-The Blaze were shut down by Prior Lake, costing them the 2-seed in 2AA, but the victory over Bloomington Jefferson gives them a much-needed quality win. With the 3-seed likely in hand, they have a fairly easy final week ahead of them.
This week: Tues vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at Lakeville South

14. Bloomington Jefferson (14-9)
-The Jaguars’ overtime loss to Burnsville should stick them with the 4-seed in 2AA. Though their record over the past month is not ideal, all of their losses have been to ranked teams, and all but one of those were by one goal. The talent to give Edina a good run in the semifinals is there, but they need to take that last step against good teams. Their last week shouldn’t pose any huge challenges.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South, Sat at Rosemount

15. Elk River (13-10)
-The Elks did not impress in their games against the two Northwest Suburban frontrunners, as they gave up nine goals to Blaine and were shut out by Centennial; they stay in the top 15 only because no one immediately below them could quite build a big enough case to go higher. Their recent games against top-end teams have not gone well at all, which may be cause for concern as they head into sections. They should be able to win both of their upcoming games.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong

The Next Ten

Cretin-Derham Hall (15-8-1)
-I was all set to send Cretin into the top 15, as they took Edina to overtime and beat White Bear Lake, locking up the Suburban East title with the latter win. However, they laid an egg against Roseville on Saturday, showing they don’t quite have the consistency of a top team yet. They aren’t an explosive team, but they’re scrappy, they have some depth, and they play sharp defense. They have the potential to be a thorn in Eagan’s side if they can play the way they did against Edina, and will close out the season at Stillwater on Thursday.

Tartan (18-3-1)
-While the Titans didn’t win the game, a tie with St. Thomas certainly earns them some respect; this team has a legitimate star in Jake Jackson, and there is enough depth behind him that they can have a shot against quality teams. They’ll reach the 20-win mark if they take care of business against North St. Paul and Mahtomedi, and a game with Duluth East gives them a second chance to prove their worth.

White Bear Lake (13-9-1)
-The Bears’ loss to Cretin puts a mild damper on their strong second half of the season, but in the big picture, they are still a much-improved team that could have a shot at Hill in sections. First, however, they need to take care of business against their less talented conference and section rivals; winning both games this week is essential if they want a top-3 seed in 4AA.

Holy Family (16-6)
-The Fire picked up three more wins this past week, including a decent one against Holy Angels. Their busy late-season schedule continues this week, and a visit to Breck offers one last test against a top-end team.

Eastview (14-8-1)
-Two more shutouts for Eastview and goaltender Driscoll this past week, albeit against two of the weaker South Suburban teams. Their last week of the season is not an easy one, as they take on Eagan and Prior Lake.

Maple Grove (13-11)
-The Crimson continued to hold steady this past week, earning a hard-fought win over Andover. They close out their regular season against Blaine; they lost the first meeting 5-2, but that was when much of the team was suspended, so we’ll see if they can make it any more interesting this time around.

Cloquet (13-8-2)
-A one-goal loss to Duluth East proves the Jacks will have a shot against anyone in sections, but the shutout loss to Andover the following night hurts. Their offensive output of late has not been what it was earlier in the season, and their last week offers no guarantees, as they face potentially dangerous St. Francis and a decent Duluth Marshall squad.

Roseau (14-8-1)
-The Rams got back on track this past week, beating a Thief River team that beat Moorhead, and thumping St. Cloud Tech. So long as the lower lines can hold their own, this team has the front-end talent to make it back to St. Paul. This week’s game with East Grand Forks could tell us which direction they’re headed as they head into sections.

Moorhead (10-10-2)
-The Spuds’ mid-January momentum has sputtered out, and after a rough loss to Thief River Falls and a tie with Bemidji, 8AA is a lot less clear than it used to be. They’re giving up way too many goals right now, and if they don’t shore things up, their game with Hill this week could be a rough one.

Andover (10-10-2)
-A win over Cloquet allows the Huskies to creep back into the top 25. They also lost to Maple Grove this past week, and the offensive output certainly hasn’t turned any heads this season. But with a strong goalie and good team defense, they could cause serious fits for someone in sections. They play one last tough team in Blaine on Tuesday, and a win over Osseo could help erase an earlier tie against the bottom-feeding Orioles.

Watch list: Forest Lake, Brainerd, East Ridge

Time for one last regular season run through the sections; seeding in each is either already set or will be decided by one or two in-section games this week. The teams are listed in the order I think they should be seeded.

1AA
Lakeville North
Lakeville South
Rochester Mayo
Farmington
-The records here are getting pretty ugly, with the Lakevilles sitting at a combined 17-29-1, yet still in position to claim the top two seeds. Looking further south, there is at least some possible intrigue. Rochester Mayo had been looking good until they got pasted by Mankato West this past week; they still might have some shot if they get good goaltending and regain the form they’ve shown over most of the second half of the season. Likewise, Farmington recently got a win over Holy Angels, who tends to hover around the Lakevilles in the computerized rankings; they haven’t been consistent enough to merit more than a 4-seed, but there seems to be enough there to topple a Lakeville if they get hot. Even Rochester John Marshall seems to be building some momentum. There may not be any great teams here, but it could wind up being a good race to St. Paul.

2AA
6 Edina
11 Prior Lake
(13) Burnsville
(14) Bloomington Jefferson
-This section should be locked in now, as Prior Lake beat Burnsville for a second time, and Burnsville completed the sweep of Jefferson. Prior Lake is really the only team here that has been playing its best hockey of late, and they gave Edina a one-goal game back in December, though they were outshot heavily. Still, this might be the best shot anyone has had against the Hornets since Jefferson’s one-loss season in 08-09. Holy Angels, fresh off a one-goal loss to Breck, should be the 5-seed, and could trouble Jefferson in the first round.

3AA
5 Eagan
(16) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eastview
East Ridge
-If Eagan takes care of Eastview, this section should be pretty much set. The Wildcats are the favorite, improving Cretin is the clear #2, and Eastview hangs in there as an upset threat at #3. If the Lightning pull off a second upset, Cretin probably jumps to #1, though I’d still give Eagan #2; their season overall has been much stronger, and Eastview has a bunch of bad section losses that should keep them from a top-2 seed. East Ridge, winners of five in a row, looks to be #4.

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(17) Tartan
(18) White Bear Lake
Stillwater
-Like 3AA there is a clear #1 here, but further down, it’s the least settled of any of the sections. After the tie with St. Thomas, I think Tartan should get the benefit of the doubt and grab the 2-seed, though with a 2-0 week and a Tartan loss to Duluth East, White Bear would have a perfectly legitimate argument as well. Stillwater could still raise its stock as high as #3 with a win over White Bear, while Mounds View’s rough second half could cost them a spot in the top four; they are 0-1-1 against Stillwater. Roseville is #6 unless they beat White Bear, and even then, it may be hard to move up much.

5AA
7 Blaine
(12) Centennial
(21) Maple Grove
Champlin Park
-Even though Blaine and Maple Grove play this week, I don’t see anything changing the ordering here. Blaine is undefeated in the section, including the recent big win over Centennial, and Centennial is 2-0 against Maple Grove. Champlin Park is the default #4. Blaine looks to be in prime position for a return to St. Paul.

6AA
2 Benilde
4 Minnetonka
8 Wayzata
10 Eden Prairie
(19) Holy Family
-The biggest debate here is whether Minnetonka’s strong Lake season should perhaps push them ahead of Benilde, despite the 5-1 loss. Personally, I don’t think so; they have similar records against comparable schedules, which means their head-to-head result should carry the most weight. Eden Prairie and Minnetonka do meet this week, but with Wayzata owning a win over Benilde and a stronger overall season, I don’t think an Eden Prairie win would be enough to tip them up to #3, despite their recent success. Holy Family is locked in at #5. Unless Benilde chokes away a game this week and Minnetonka wins out, I think this will be how it ends.

7AA
3 Duluth East
9 Grand Rapids
15 Elk River
(25) Andover
(22) Cloquet
Forest Lake
-After a lot of arguing, 7AA has fallen into a reasonably sensible order. One game could potentially throw in a wrinkle, as struggling Cloquet plays likely 7-seed St. Francis this week; the Saints are surprisingly good for a team with such a low seed. But even a St. Francis win might not change things much. There are ways to argue against this order—Rapids’s section losses could be held against them, Cloquet might get some benefit of the doubt due to their front-end talent, and the coaches may frown upon Andover’s record—but there isn’t really a logical alternative. It should be an incredibly competitive section tournament, as there is far more quarterfinal intrigue here than anywhere else.

8AA
(24) Moorhead
Brainerd
(23) Roseau
Bemidji
-In spite of the Bemidji tie, Moorhead should be set at #1; they are 5-1-1 within the section while everyone else has at least 3 losses, and they have a handful of positive results against top teams outside of 8AA, even if the record on the whole is not pretty. 2-4, on the other hand, is a mess, with Bemidji climbing into the picture after a win over Roseau and the Moorhead tie. We have a Brainerd-Bemidji game on Tuesday that will also have to be factored in; if Brainerd wins, they are the clear #2, and I’d give Roseau the 3-seed due to their stronger overall season. But if Bemidji wins they’d have themselves a decent case for the 2-seed due to their late surge, and that would, in my mind, drop Brainerd to #4 behind #3 Roseau.

There you have it—one last week of regular season play to go. Next week I’ll break out my usual pre-sections format, in which I rank the top 25 and then give the write-ups on teams within each section. Time to start preparing for some playoff hockey.

[grandindian]

Karl, thanks for your rankings posts! Always look forward to your insights and have to say, I appreciate your attempts to be objective. The comments about each sections are awesome. Keep it up!

[TheHockeyDJ]

Karl, you and Bruce Ciskie have the exact same 7AA seeds. It seems reasonable given the lack of common section opponents and lack of common opponents overall you really have to weigh the full season and then use the head to head match ups in situations where the overall result is too close to call. This is the best way because it gives meaning to every regular season game rather than making the few sections games all the weight and making non-section games the equivalent of a mid-November scrimmage.

[SPUDNUT]

Thanx, Karl - well done (again). Would rather read your work than the Fargo Forum (Fool'em) sports section !

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl cannot recall how many years that you have been tracking 'AA top 20' high school. This year has to rate as one of the lowest number of 20 win teams. Is this a sign of rise in mediocre level of high school or a small blip on the radar caused by some key moves to junior level of play? A tenth tanked team at .500 is quite an interesting comment to me that indicates mediocre talent level of mn high school hockey level. Is the state starting to lose its edge on volume of quality programs?

I looked at mn scores.net for some quick stats:
2008-2009 11 teams with 20 wins in top 20
2009-2010 9 teams with 20 wins in top 20
2010-2011 12 teams with 20 wins in top 20
2011-2012 8 teams with 20 wins in top 20

[scorekeeper]

Its called parity and its a good thing

[Bonin2121]

So it seems Jefferson will host AHA in the first round of sections. I've been curious about this matchup since finally reading Blades of Glory last summer. I know Trebil left Jefferson for the 96-97 season and the two teams have met in the 99 section final, 00 section final, and 05 State quarters.

Using MinnHock, the only thing I don't know is if the two teams met during the regular season in 96-97 or 97-98? I think Saterdalen wouldn't have scheduled them but I was hoping an expert on here could confirm.

I think I'd like to go to this game to see how the atmosphere is. It'll be interesting as the oldest Bianchi's son is now a senior (on the wrong team). I doubt the rivalry will really be there at all with the old coaches gone, but I enjoy a bit of history.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

I think another factor has to be the better teams playing each other more frequently. Obviously the Lake Conf. is the prime example, but it's more than that. BSM, STA and Hill play tougher schedules than they did five years ago. Duluth East has played outside of their conference for some time now.

[mulefarm]

Its called parity and its a good thing

Parity in a lot of highly talented players and teams or because each team has average talented players?

[karl(east)]

I think another factor has to be the better teams playing each other more frequently. Obviously the Lake Conf. is the prime example, but it's more than that. BSM, STA and Hill play tougher schedules than they did five years ago. Duluth East has played outside of their conference for some time now.

I think this, along with scorekeeper's mention of parity (meaning the talent is more spread around than it used to be), is the more likely answer to northwoods's question. Duluth East helps illustrate this--six or eight years ago, their schedule was almost certainly the hardest in the state. The schedule hasn't got any easier over the past few years, but it's down around #10 now in difficulty. A lot of the good teams right now happen to be in the west Metro, which means they beat up on each other in Lake play and cost themselves 20-win seasons. And lots of teams have been trying to get harder nonconference schedules, as they realize this will help them get better. The big two holiday tournaments also complicate things--the newish St. Louis Park tourney forces a lot of big teams to play one another, and this year's Schwan Cup was so loaded that a very strong Blaine team went 0-3.

For some time now, I've wanted to collect info on the post-HS careers of players on State Tournament teams, just to see what sort of talent usually winds up on such teams, and if there has been any shift over time. I have some info on Duluth East and a few of their State opponents over the years, and with some old Tourney programs and hockeydb.com, it wouldn't be terribly hard to find other teams' rosters. Perhaps I'll make that an offseason project.

Back on topic...in AA, it also hurts that there are no real strong teams in 1AA or 8AA right now. Given their schedules, it isn't hard for Rochester schools or Roseau/Brainerd/etc. to pile up 20 wins if they have a pretty good team, but that isn't happening right now. The programs that have risen to take their place are mostly suburban, and play tougher schedules.

So it seems Jefferson will host AHA in the first round of sections. I've been curious about this matchup since finally reading Blades of Glory last summer. I know Trebil left Jefferson for the 96-97 season and the two teams have met in the 99 section final, 00 section final, and 05 State quarters.

Using MinnHock, the only thing I don't know is if the two teams met during the regular season in 96-97 or 97-98? I think Saterdalen wouldn't have scheduled them but I was hoping an expert on here could confirm.

I think I'd like to go to this game to see how the atmosphere is. It'll be interesting as the oldest Bianchi's son is now a senior (on the wrong team). I doubt the rivalry will really be there at all with the old coaches gone, but I enjoy a bit of history.

I am also intrigued by this. I'm not much of an expert on the 90s, but I highly doubt Jefferson and AHA played in 96-97 or 97-98. While the coaches may be gone now, there is probably still some good animosity lingering, especially with players like Bianchi over at AHA. It could be a pretty good game, too.

[Bonin2121]

Back on topic...in AA, it also hurts that there are no real strong teams in 1AA or 8AA right now. Given their schedules, it isn't hard for Rochester schools or Roseau/Brainerd/etc. to pile up 20 wins if they have a pretty good team, but that isn't happening right now. The programs that have risen to take their place are mostly suburban, and play tougher schedules.

I know they seed 1-5, but hasn't the "random draw" kind of shaken out to be 1-8 in the past few years? i.e. If Hill runs the table they're more than likely to play the 1AA winner?

[almostashappy]

3AA
5 Eagan
(16) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eastview
East Ridge
-If Eagan takes care of Eastview, this section should be pretty much set. The Wildcats are the favorite, improving Cretin is the clear #2, and Eastview hangs in there as an upset threat at #3. If the Lightning pull off a second upset, Cretin probably jumps to #1, though I’d still give Eagan #2; their season overall has been much stronger, and Eastview has a bunch of bad section losses that should keep them from a top-2 seed. East Ridge, winners of five in a row, looks to be #4.

Karl, I'm curious... what's the logic behind boosting CDH to #1 in 3AA if Eagan loses again to Eastview? Yes, Cretin did play Edina tough, but what do they have as far as "quality wins"? Splitting with WBL? Splitting with FLake? They've also got some ugly loses (most recently, as you've noted, Roseville).

I suppose you could fall back on comparing section records, but that's the same logic used by some to rank GR far lower than you have in 7AA.

[Ogie]

11. Prior Lake (15-7)
-A big 4-0 win over Burnsville should be enough to give the Lakers the 2-seed in 2AA, and sets them up for their deepest postseason run yet. In spite of that, they slide back in the rankings;

[dlow]

Its called parity and its a good thing

Parity in a lot of highly talented players and teams or because each team has average talented players?

Hockey talent is at an all time high right now, across MN and throughout the US. Today's teams are superior to past teams. Players train harder, all year, have more opportunities, better coaching, and play against better skilled competition.

[Ogie]

6AA
2 Benilde
4 Minnetonka
8 Wayzata
10 Eden Prairie
(19) Holy Family
-The biggest debate here is whether Minnetonka’s strong Lake season should perhaps push them ahead of Benilde, despite the 5-1 loss. Personally, I don’t think so; they have similar records against comparable schedules, which means their head-to-head result should carry the most weight. Eden Prairie and Minnetonka do meet this week, but with Wayzata owning a win over Benilde and a stronger overall season, I don’t think an Eden Prairie win would be enough to tip them up to #3, despite their recent success. Holy Family is locked in at #5. Unless Benilde chokes away a game this week and Minnetonka wins out, I think this will be how it ends.

What about Minneapolis?

They look to be putting a pretty doggone sneaky good season together.

[celly93]

6AA
2 Benilde
4 Minnetonka
8 Wayzata
10 Eden Prairie
(19) Holy Family
-The biggest debate here is whether Minnetonka’s strong Lake season should perhaps push them ahead of Benilde, despite the 5-1 loss. Personally, I don’t think so; they have similar records against comparable schedules, which means their head-to-head result should carry the most weight. Eden Prairie and Minnetonka do meet this week, but with Wayzata owning a win over Benilde and a stronger overall season, I don’t think an Eden Prairie win would be enough to tip them up to #3, despite their recent success. Holy Family is locked in at #5. Unless Benilde chokes away a game this week and Minnetonka wins out, I think this will be how it ends.

What about Minneapolis?

They look to be putting a pretty doggone sneaky good season together.

I like this team, but the only AA team's they've beaten are Cooper and Kennedy. They might be a 5 seed in other sections, but they'll be the 7 seed in 6AA.

[Simpleton]

3AA
5 Eagan
(16) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eastview
East Ridge
-If Eagan takes care of Eastview, this section should be pretty much set. The Wildcats are the favorite, improving Cretin is the clear #2, and Eastview hangs in there as an upset threat at #3. If the Lightning pull off a second upset, Cretin probably jumps to #1, though I’d still give Eagan #2; their season overall has been much stronger, and Eastview has a bunch of bad section losses that should keep them from a top-2 seed. East Ridge, winners of five in a row, looks to be #4.

Karl, I'm curious... what's the logic behind boosting CDH to #1 in 3AA if Eagan loses again to Eastview? Yes, Cretin did play Edina tough, but what do they have as far as "quality wins"? Splitting with WBL? Splitting with FLake? They've also got some ugly loses (most recently, as you've noted, Roseville).

I suppose you could fall back on comparing section records, but that's the same logic used by some to rank GR far lower than you have in 7AA.

Certainly won't speak for Karl - he's the man - but I'd agree with his point only because I support the notion that section games take precedence over non-section games. If Eagan loses to Eastview again they're 6-2 in the section whereas CDH will be 8-0. Stinks that Eagan and CDH don't play each other - and I do think Eagan is a better team - but I think you give the 1 to CDH at that point.

The other interesting component is the 3/4 seeding. If Eagan beats Eastview - which I think they will - then Eastview finishes 6-4 in the section with a loss to East Ridge, and East Ridge is 7-3-1 with losses only to CDH (2) and Eagan. At that point I'd say East Ridge gets the 3 and Eastview the 4.

Oh well...I'm sure the coaches will figure it out.

[Ogie]

6AA
2 Benilde
4 Minnetonka
8 Wayzata
10 Eden Prairie
(19) Holy Family
-The biggest debate here is whether Minnetonka’s strong Lake season should perhaps push them ahead of Benilde, despite the 5-1 loss. Personally, I don’t think so; they have similar records against comparable schedules, which means their head-to-head result should carry the most weight. Eden Prairie and Minnetonka do meet this week, but with Wayzata owning a win over Benilde and a stronger overall season, I don’t think an Eden Prairie win would be enough to tip them up to #3, despite their recent success. Holy Family is locked in at #5. Unless Benilde chokes away a game this week and Minnetonka wins out, I think this will be how it ends.

What about Minneapolis?

They look to be putting a pretty doggone sneaky good season together.

I like this team, but the only AA team's they've beaten are Cooper and Kennedy. They might be a 5 seed in other sections, but they'll be the 7 seed in 6AA.

While I can't argue with the lower caliber of opponents, they're still traveling hundreds of miles to play some games and still beating the crap out of opponents.

Haven't seen them since the Schwan final...Might have to mosey on over to No Hope or Bloomington to check them out this week.

[almostashappy]

[quote="Simpleton"]
Certainly won't speak for Karl - he's the man - but I'd agree with his point only because I support the notion that section games take precedence over non-section games. If Eagan loses to Eastview again they're 6-2 in the section whereas CDH will be 8-0. Stinks that Eagan and CDH don't play each other - and I do think Eagan is a better team - but I think you give the 1 to CDH at that point.

The other interesting component is the 3/4 seeding. If Eagan beats Eastview - which I think they will - then Eastview finishes 6-4 in the section with a loss to East Ridge, and East Ridge is 7-3-1 with losses only to CDH (2) and Eagan. At that point I'd say East Ridge gets the 3 and Eastview the 4.


If only section records matter, you could play home-and-home series with the two worst teams in the section, and fill the rest of the schedule with 21 single A opponents. Hey look, everybody, we won 20 games and went undefeated in section play! Give us top seed!

I'd also really hate to see 1 Eagan vs 4 Eastview and 2 CDH vs 3 East Ridge in the semi's...in both cases, it'd be the third time the these teams had played each other. Much better to go SSC vs. SEC.

[karl(east)]

3AA
5 Eagan
(16) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eastview
East Ridge
-If Eagan takes care of Eastview, this section should be pretty much set. The Wildcats are the favorite, improving Cretin is the clear #2, and Eastview hangs in there as an upset threat at #3. If the Lightning pull off a second upset, Cretin probably jumps to #1, though I’d still give Eagan #2; their season overall has been much stronger, and Eastview has a bunch of bad section losses that should keep them from a top-2 seed. East Ridge, winners of five in a row, looks to be #4.

Karl, I'm curious... what's the logic behind boosting CDH to #1 in 3AA if Eagan loses again to Eastview? Yes, Cretin did play Edina tough, but what do they have as far as "quality wins"? Splitting with WBL? Splitting with FLake? They've also got some ugly loses (most recently, as you've noted, Roseville).

I suppose you could fall back on comparing section records, but that's the same logic used by some to rank GR far lower than you have in 7AA.

Certainly won't speak for Karl - he's the man - but I'd agree with his point only because I support the notion that section games take precedence over non-section games. If Eagan loses to Eastview again they're 6-2 in the section whereas CDH will be 8-0. Stinks that Eagan and CDH don't play each other - and I do think Eagan is a better team - but I think you give the 1 to CDH at that point.

The other interesting component is the 3/4 seeding. If Eagan beats Eastview - which I think they will - then Eastview finishes 6-4 in the section with a loss to East Ridge, and East Ridge is 7-3-1 with losses only to CDH (2) and Eagan. At that point I'd say East Ridge gets the 3 and Eastview the 4.

Oh well...I'm sure the coaches will figure it out.

My reasoning is basically this, yes. The lack of a head-to-head meeting is an issue here, and that's the difference between this and 7AA, where Grand Rapids beat the only team that could logically move up if we were to hold their section losses against them (Elk River). And you certainly have a point about East Ridge/Eastview for 3/4...I'd forgotten about their game earlier this season. Still, the value of that win over Eagan--who we all know is the most talented team here--still might be enough to get Eastview the 3. Neither order would surprise me, I guess.

As for the Minneapolis question, while I'm sure rooting for Minneapolis hockey to get back on track, they do benefit from a very weak schedule. They lost 10-2 to Holy Family, and also have losses to a not-very-good Blake team and Cambridge, the likely 9-seed in 7AA. Those margins of victory are nice, but for this season, they're probably stuck with the 7-seed and a meeting with Minnetonka in the quarterfinals.

I know they seed 1-5, but hasn't the "random draw" kind of shaken out to be 1-8 in the past few years? i.e. If Hill runs the table they're more than likely to play the 1AA winner?

Yes and no. By my rankings, the past four tournaments have looked like this:

2012:
1 vs. 7
2 vs. 6
3 vs. 8
4 vs. 5

2011:
1 vs. 8
2 vs. 7
3 vs. 5
4 vs. 6

2010:
1 vs. 8
2 vs. 7
3 vs. 6
4 vs. 5

2009:
1 vs. 5
2 vs. 7
3 vs. 8
4 vs. 6

So while it hasn't always lined up directly (and my rankings haven't always necessarily agreed with LPH or general perception), it does seem true that the top two seeds *usually* draw the easier match-ups, while the 3s and 4s tend to get somewhat more difficult opponents. And yes, the top seed has gotten the 1AA winner in each of the past three. You can claim coincidence or conspiracy, I suppose.

This year, we're seeding 5 teams instead of 4 for the first time ever. That means that we'll almost certainly have a good match-up on paper in that last quarterfinal. With the 1AA and 8AA entrants likely being a ways behind the rest of the field, that means one of the top three will likely get saddled with a tough first round opponent, while the other two should have an easier time--on paper, of course.

[Bonin2121]

You can claim coincidence or conspiracy, I suppose.

I shall claim the latter until I see this year's matchups. Thanks for the info.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Its called parity and its a good thing

Cannot see the parity claim on the ice, lots of below average hockey being played in many rinks. I see a lot of one line teams this season and think that is the reason for mediocre level of play in Minnesota this season. MN Hockey + MSHSL = Mediocre Hockey. MSHSL could care less as long as the $$ roll in from the annual St. Paul get together. Congratulations to the few teams that reached the 20 win mark!

[Tenoverpar]

Northwoods...why do you say teams are more mediocre? Compared to what? It would appear that there are better players everywhere because the game keeps growing and growing in the other 9 months of the year.
I would respectfually offer up that the 1st tier of players is the same #, but the 2nd tier is very very large, bigger than it was in years past (I guess this would explain your mediocre theory and the parity claim). Every year kids come and go and the same thing gets said, wow, this team will be hurting next year...the fact is they won't, the next generation will come along and take the reigns.

[ShootNScore88]

Northwoods, Teams are not mediocre. It is parity. There is so much more depth. 2nd and 3rd lines have a lot of more talent and can shut down top lines. Coaching is the problem when it comes to overplaying the first line. That is how East ended up a Mariucci last year. We are way past the days of Olimb, Zmolek, Bonin, and even Ness never leaving the ice. The difference in talent between 1st line and 3rd line has gotten a lot smaller because of the growth of hockey.

[hockeyfan893]

We are way past the days of Olimb, Zmolek, Bonin, and even Ness never leaving the ice.

Except for this, the rest of your post was sound. Way may be moving past such days, but there are still players who indicate that we are certain not past them entirely.

On another note, I agree that teams are becoming deeper, but we have to be careful in our analysis as depth does not necessarily entail talent, as others have alluded too.