AA Rankings for 2/17/13 and Section Preview

[karl(east)]

Happy section tournament time! This week, instead of putting the write-ups with the rankings, I’ll simply list the end-of-regular-season Top 25, then make my comments on the teams in the features on each section.

All seedings are official.

First, your top 25:

1. Hill-Murray (22-2-1)
2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-5)
3. Duluth East (21-4)
4. Eagan (21-3-1)
5. Minnetonka (18-6-1)
6. Edina (19-6)
7. Blaine (19-5-1)
8. Wayzata (18-7)
9. Grand Rapids (17-4-3)
10. Eden Prairie (12-12-1)
11. Centennial (19-4-2)
12. Burnsville (15-9-1)
13. Bloomington Jefferson (16-9)
14. Prior Lake (16-9)
15. Elk River (15-10)
16. Cretin-Derham Hall (16-8-1)
17. White Bear Lake (15-9-1)
18. Holy Family (18-7)
19. Maple Grove (14-11)
20. Eastview (15-9-1)
21. Tartan (20-4-1)
22. Roseau (16-8-1)
23. Cloquet (15-8-2)
24. Moorhead (11-11-2)
25. Forest Lake (15-10)

Also of note: Brainerd, Andover, East Ridge, Lakeville North

1AA
1st Rd: Tues 2/19 High Seed Home
Quarters: Thurs 2/21 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 Rochester Rec Center
Final: Thurs 2/28 Rochester Rec Center

1. Lakeville North (8-16-1)
-After a convincing 7-2 victory in their second meeting with Lakeville South and an early-season 3-0 win over Rochester Mayo, we are in the unusual position of having a team with half as many wins as losses as a section favorite. They have given some good teams close games—a trend they kept up in the final week of the season, in a 3-2 loss to Prior Lake—and are young and reasonably deep. In a very weak section, that might be just enough to punch a ticket to the X.
2. Rochester Mayo (20-4-1)
-While they play a weak schedule, the Spartans had a pretty strong season, and the 3-0 loss to North could perhaps be turned around if they get quality goaltending and finish their chances in sections. In this year’s 1AA, they are a very real contender, if rather untested.
3. Lakeville South (9-16)
-The Cougars have lost eight of their past nine, with the only win coming over bottom-feeder Apple Valley. Some of those losses have been reasonably competitive games against good teams, but they’ll need to find another gear if they want to go anywhere in the postseason.
4. Farmington (12-12-1)
-Goalie incident aside, this is a team with some decent young talent on it. They’ve had some competitive games with decent teams, and like Mayo, that’s enough to put them in the picture in this section.
5. Rochester John Marshall (13-12)
-Playing better of late, with eight straight wins, and not necessarily out of the running.
6. Owatonna (13-11-1)
7. Rochester Century (7-18)
8. Dodge County (9-13-2)
9. Winona (8-15-2)

2AA
Quarters: Thurs 2/21 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 Braemar/BIG
Final: Wed 2/27 Mariucci

1. Edina (19-6/#6)
-The Hornets ended the Lake season on a mixed note, earning a win over Wayzata but dropping the finale against Eden Prairie. They seem to be locking down on defense better than they were a few weeks ago, but this has come at some expense to their scoring prowess. They’re probably the deepest team in the state, but they have shown signs of weakness, both on defense and in their parades to the penalty box. The Hornets are still easily the most talented team in the section, but they’ll have to fend off a pair of decent challengers to earn a seventh consecutive tournament berth; we’ll see if anyone in the muddle of teams behind them can step up and give them a good run.
2. Prior Lake (16-9/#14)
-The Lakers had a rough last week, dropping games against Rochester Lourdes and Eastview. Unsurprisingly, their lack of offense was the main issue; this team lacks much in the way of front-end offensive talent. But they are a scrappy group that plays strong defense in front of a good goaltender, and if they can rediscover the form that got them into position for the 2-seed in this section, they might be able to make their way into their first ever section final and escape with a big win.
3. Burnsville (15-9-1/#12)
-A season-ending 7-0 win over Lakeville South is a positive end for the Blaze, who have been up and down all year. They’re a thin team, but with stars like Sheehy and Kivihalme, they have enough big-time players to steal a few games and make their way past Prior Lake for another shot in the section final. They always seem to give Edina a good game, though they have yet to pull off the upset; if their lower lines can hold things even, they’ll have a realistic shot.
4. Bloomington Jefferson (16-9/#13)
-The Jaguars closed out their season with two more wins, and while their results over the course of the season suggest they’ve only been a marginal contender for a top-3 seed 2AA, they have enough talented players to make a run here. They’ll open with an interesting match-up with Holy Angels, and if they can get by the Stars, they should have some shot at knocking off Edina.
5. Holy Angels (13-11-1)
6. Bloomington Kennedy (10-15)
7. Chanhassen (7-17-1)
8. Shakopee (5-19-1)

3AA
1st Rd: Tues 2/19 High Seed Home
Quarters: Thurs 2/21 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 Coliseum
Final: Thurs 2/28 Coliseum

1. Eagan (21-3-1/#4)
-The Wildcats have been one of the hottest teams down the stretch, winning their last eleven games, many by convincing margins. They have good scoring depth, with two prolific lines and a strong third line, and their defense is balanced as well. Their goaltending may be young, but with no real obvious weaknesses and a thinner section, they are one of the surest bets to make it to St. Paul and earn a high seed.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (16-8-1/#16)
-The Raiders wrapped up a strong second half with a win over Stillwater, and find themselves in the best position of anyone to take a shot at Eagan. They certainly do not have the Wildcats’ talent, but they are fairly strong defensively, and there is some depth here, too. If they can match their effort in their narrow loss to Edina, a section title is within striking distance.
3. Eastview (15-9-2/#20)
-The Lightning had an inconclusive final week, as they got blown out by Eagan, but pulled an upset over Prior Lake. With Driscoll in goal, they have a shot against anyone, but they’ll need to find a bit more offense to get beyond a section semifinal.
4. East Ridge (13-10-2)
-A loss to Forest Lake ended a six-game Raptor winning streak, but they had a decent second half of the season, and they did give Eagan a one-goal game back in December. It will be an uphill battle, and they have to beat a decent Hastings team for a third time first, but they have a distant shot at pulling the upset.
5. Hastings (13-10-2)
6. Rosemount (10-15)
7. Apple Valley (5-20)
8. Park of Cottage Grove (4-20-1)
9. Woodbury (6-16-3)

4AA
Quarters: Sat 2/23 Aldrich
Semis: Tues 2/26 Coliseum
Final: Fri 3/1 Coliseum

1. Hill-Murray (22-2-1/#1)
-The Pioneers head into sections comfortably ranked #1 and on a ten-game winning streak, but as a somewhat narrower-than-expected win over Moorhead shows, they are not on the convincing level some of our other recent top-ranked teams have been. They’re deep, they have some front-end talent, the defense is very well-coached, and they have a top-notch goalie in Dugas. Still, they’ve had some issues with other quality defensive teams, and their own defense, while strong, is not world class. It’s also been a while since they played a legitimate top-end team; while there aren’t any other teams in their section that qualify for that title, we’ll see if it affects them at all.
2. White Bear Lake (15-9-1/#17)
-With two section wins in the final week of the season, the Bears earned themselves the 2-seed in 4AA and wrapped up a strong second half to their season. They are young, but have the talent to score goals in bunches; the question will be whether the defense can hold up against the depth and talent of a team like Hill-Murray. They also can’t get ahead of themselves, as potentially dangerous Tartan looms in the semifinals.
3. Tartan (20-4-1/#21)
-The Titans lost to Duluth East in their last game of the season, leaving them with only the St. Thomas tie as a suggestion of what they can achieve when they’re on. Jake Jackson and a gaudy record give them a decent shot at a section final in this section, but it’s tough to make a case for anything more at the moment.
4. Stillwater (9-14-2)
-The Ponies end the year with four straight losses, though they were all against superior teams, and given the relative parity beyond Hill in 4AA, they’ll be a tough out in the first two rounds. It’s hard to see them as a realistic contender in the section, though.
5. Mounds View (13-9-3)
-What had looked like a promising season has come unraveled down the stretch, as the Mustangs have only won two of their last nine. This senior-laded squad could give Hill a decent run in the semis, but they’ll need to get back on track in a hurry and start by getting out of their quarterfinal.
6. Roseville (11-12-2)
-Don’t have a great record against the other contending SEC teams, but they are among the more relevant 6-seeds out there.
7. North St. Paul (10-14-1)
8. St. Paul Como Park (10-14)

5AA
Quarters: Sat 2/23 Champlin Park/Coon Rapids
Semis: Wed 2/27 Coliseum
Final: Fri 3/1 Coliseum

1. Blaine (19-5-1/#7)
-The Bengals had an adventurous final week, as they were tripped up by Maple Grove but pulled out an overtime win against Minnetonka. Their forward depth is among the best in the state, but their defensive performances against other quality teams have been rather spotty. The Maple Grove loss poses some questions about their ability to get out of the section, but there’s no doubt they have the most potential of anyone here, and the road to the section final shouldn’t be too challenging.
2. Centennial (19-4-2/#11)
-The Cougars needed overtime to get by Robbinsdale Armstrong on Tuesday, which continues a trend of less-than-stellar results. As they don’t have a lot of firepower, they will need to rely on goaltender Patrick Munson and complete team defense to have any shot of coming out of this section.
3. Maple Grove (14-11/#19)
-The Crimson ended a tumultuous season on a high note, as they knocked off Blaine and threw a wrench into the 5AA picture. Their last loss to Centennial was only by one goal, and with a talented first unit and reasonable depth, they’re suddenly in decent shape to defend their 5AA title.
4. Champlin Park (9-13-3)
5. Anoka (5-19-1)
6. Irondale (10-14-1)
7. Coon Rapids (4-17-4)
8. Osseo (3-19-2)

6AA
1st Rd: Tues 2/19 High Seed Home
Quarters: Thurs 2/21 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 Braemar/BIG
Final: Wed 2/27 Mariucci

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-5/#2)
-The Red Knights’ title defense hasn’t always been smooth sailing, but no one in the state can match the firepower of Besse, Labosky, Moore, and Naas. Their chances at a repeat come down to their defense—they’ve had some games this season where it’s been good enough to take the crown, but at other times, their lack of depth and relative inexperience in back has shown through. The 6AA minefield will make their path back to State even more difficult than last season, but the talent is clearly there to pull it off.
2. Minnetonka (18-6-1/#5)
-The Skippers ran the table in the Lake Conference, which is an impressive feat for any team, but on the flip side, they have struggled in their 2013 games against strong nonconference teams, losing to Benilde, East, and Blaine. Their defense is very strong, and the top line is explosive, but they are not especially deep, and if it comes down to another section final with Benilde, they will need to find themselves a new game plan to slow down the Red Knights’ transition game.
3. Wayzata (18-7/#8)
-A loss to Edina in the season’s final week leaves the Trojans 0-5 in their last five Lake games against teams other than Hopkins, which raises some serious doubts heading into sections. On the other hand, they boast one of the state’s strongest goaltenders in Dingmann, and with some quality depth and a few top-end young players, they have the pieces to make a run through the section if they can recapture their early-season form.
4. Eden Prairie (12-12-1/#10)
-The Eagles ended an up-and-down season on a high note, defeating Edina to move to .500, both in the Lake Conference and overall. They’ve had some trouble playing complete games, and their special teams are surprisingly mediocre, given the front-end players at their disposal. However, they do have the talent necessary to make a run in 6AA, and with quality goaltending and some decent performances from their lower lines, they can be as dangerous as anyone in the state. They have a realistic shot at winning this section, but they could just as easily bomb out in the first round for a second straight year. Time to learn which version is the real 2013 Eagles.
5. Holy Family (18-7/#18)
-The Fire’s narrow loss to Breck does little to affect their standing in these rankings, and they wrapped up a Wright County Conference title as well. Anything other than a 5-seed was always going to be a tall order for this team, but they have shown they can hang with some of the best, and a big night for Gersich and Company could easily produce an upset or two. Their biggest struggle will likely come in trying to match the depth of the big four teams in 6AA.
6. Hopkins (10-14-1)
7. Minneapolis (20-4-1)
8. Robbinsdale Armstrong (4-18-3)
9. Robbinsdale Cooper (4-21)

7AA
1st Rd: St. Michael-Albertville def. Cambridge 4-2
Quarters: Tues 2/19 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 Amsoil
Final: Thurs 2/28 Amsoil

1. Duluth East (21-4/#3)
-The Hounds shut down Tartan to round out their regular season, and head into the playoffs on a twelve-game winning streak. Their strengths include a strong defense and superb special teams, and so long as the offense can keep up a steady output, they have good odds at a fifth consecutive tournament berth. The other top teams in 7AA stayed within striking distance against them this year, so nothing is assured; they must keep up their strong team play to make it out of the section.
2. Grand Rapids (17-4-3/#9)
-The Thunderhawks, who blanked Duluth Denfeld in their final game of the regular season, seem to be peaking at the right time. They have a legitimate star at every position with Avery Peterson, Jake Bischoff, and Hunter Shepard; the defensive corps is also fairly deep. The question mark for most of the season was their scoring depth, and while they certainly picked up in that category down the stretch, they also did not have a difficult schedule over the last four weeks. The lower lines’ pressure against other deep teams in this section will be key, along with their ability to overcome recent playoff struggles.
3. Elk River (15-10/#15)
-While the Elks have taken some lumps down the stretch, they have been remarkably steady in their ability to avoid upsets (whether as wins or losses). This is a fairly deep team with a handful of top-end players who could turn a big game in their favor, and they’re still on the young side. However, they must prove they can break through and actually win an important game.
4. Cloquet (15-8-2/#23)
-The Jacks’ final week was not especially smooth, as they let St. Francis hang around with them and nearly choked away a game against Duluth Marshall. They have plenty of firepower in Kuhlman and the Michauds, but there are weaknesses in back; even when they don’t give up many goals, they can struggle to break out or generate legitimate scoring chances. Still, they beat first-round opponent Forest Lake comfortably back in December, and the prospect of a semifinal against Duluth East has to entice them.
5. Forest Lake (15-10/#25)
-The Rangers have played well down the stretch, and despite that 7-1 loss to Cloquet, they are in pretty good shape to pull off a first round win. They aren’t as flashy as many of their section rivals, but they are reasonably deep and play well as a unit.
6. Andover (12-11-2)
-The Huskies may not have lived up to expectations this season, but with Chase Perry in goal and some depth to their name, they are a legitimate upset threat.
7. St. Francis (16-9)
-It’s not often a 7-seed beat its first round opponent during the regular season. That said, St. Francis is not your normal 7-seed; they are pretty good at finishing their chances, and if they get another night of great goaltending, they could have a shot at a second win over Rapids.
8. St. Michael-Albertville (9-15-2)
9. Cambridge (eliminated; 8-18)

8AA
1st Rd: Monticello def. Becker-Big Lake 7-1; River Lakes def. Northern Lakes 9-5
Quarters: Tues 2/19 High Seed Home
Semis: Sat 2/23 High Seed Home
Final: Wed 2/27 Thief River Falls/Bemidji/St. Cloud

1. Moorhead (11-11-2/#24)
-The Spuds have struggled to find any measure of consistency down the stretch. They beat section rival Roseau and gave Hill a decent run on Saturday, but also tied Bemidji and gave up seven goals in a loss to Thief River Falls. They have some quality forwards, but they’ll need to tighten up their special teams play and play stronger defense to assure themselves of a third straight trip to State.
2. Brainerd (19-5)
-While this Brainerd squad is not as explosive as their other recent contenders, they are hot right now, having won 15 of their last 16. They boast a talented defenseman, a strong all-junior top line, and just enough depth to get by in this section. With home ice against Roseau in the semifinal and a vulnerable Moorhead team ahead of them, they have as good a shot as any recent challenger to the Roseau/Moorhead duopoly in this section.
3. Roseau (16-8-1/#22)
-The Rams beat East Grand Forks to round out their season on a positive note. They’ve been playing well defensively of late, and while they are not deep, they have enough firepower in stars such as Yon and Strand to get the job done. Despite the 3-seed, they are currently the highest-ranked team in this section, and they beat Brainerd in their second meeting with the Warriors. They are playing well right now, and the pieces are there for a return to State.
4. Bemidji (7-16-2)
-A 6-0 loss to Brainerd in the season’s final week doesn’t inspire much confidence, but they have beaten Roseau this year, and perhaps more importantly, their two games with possible semifinal opponent Moorhead ended in a tie and a one-goal loss. Perhaps not a State Tournament threat, but they are an upset threat.
5. St. Cloud Tech (15-10)
-Lost to Bemidji by one in December, so they’ll have a shot in the first round.
6. Buffalo (12-11-2)
7. Monticello (11-14-1)
8. River Lakes (11-15)
9. Northern Lakes (eliminated; 10-14)
10. Becker-Big Lake (eliminated; 9-17)

There you go…we’ll see who is still standing in two weeks’ time. I’ll put out a brief ranking of the 20 remaining teams next Sunday, mostly for State seeding purposes, but for the most part, my work here is done: it’s time to settle everything on the ice. Enjoy these next few weeks, whatever they may bring, and thank the teams for putting on a good show.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Best Sunday morning read around Karl. Thank you for all your efforts and analysis over the season.

[MNHockeyFan]

Pretty safe to say that whichever teams end up representing 1AA and 8AA will be two of the three unseeded (random draw) teams at State. The other will likely be an "upset team" that surprises everyone and takes their section.

2AA - Prior Lake, Burnsville, Jefferson
3AA - CDH, Eastview
4AA - WBL, Tartan
5AA - Centennial, Maple Grove
7AA - Elk River, Cloquet

If there are no surprises in sections (not likely) and all of the top seeded teams end up making it, which one would be the most likely to join the 1AA and 8AA representatives as the other unseeded team?

[tonkafan77]

If there are no surprises in sections (not likely) and all of the top seeded teams end up making it, which one would be the most likely to join the 1AA and 8AA representatives as the other unseeded team?

If all the top seeds make it to state, it would look something like this:
1) Hill Murray
2) BSM
3) D East
4) Edina
5) Eagan
6-8) Blaine, Lakeville, Moorhead

So to answer your question....Blaine

[D3Referee]

For reference, last year 15 out of the 16 #1 Section Seeds made it to the their State Tournament.

The only team who was NOT a #1 seed in their section was BSM (a #3 seed) , and of course, they won it all.

Disclaimer: I'm referencing Doug on this. So if I'm wrong, blame Doug
http://minnesota-high-school-hockey.blo ... ts_19.html

[Bonin2121]

I've been saying any of the top ten teams can win it this year and with these rankings I really feel like one through ten are Tier 1, 11-15 are Tier 2, and then there's another little drop. Realistically, I'd say it's more than a 95% chance that the state champ comes from that top ten.

[karl(east)]

For reference, last year 15 out of the 16 #1 Section Seeds made it to the their State Tournament.

The only team who was NOT a #1 seed in their section was BSM (a #3 seed) , and of course, they won it all.

Disclaimer: I'm referencing Doug on this. So if I'm wrong, blame Doug
http://minnesota-high-school-hockey.blo ... ts_19.html

Looking back on the AA fields since 1997, the top seed has gone to State about 63% of the time, so in a given year, about 5 of the 8 top seeds will make it through. The most to ever make it was 7 (1997, 2004, 2012), while the fewest was 3 (2007). Oddly, though, there have only been 5 1-seeds in a tournament once (2003) despite that being the average, and since 2006, last season was the first one with more than four top seeds making it to State.

So, expect some upsets.

Just waiting on 1AA now...

[Slap Shot]

2. Minnetonka (18-6-1/#5)
-The Skippers ran the table in the Lake Conference, which is an impressive feat for any team, but on the flip side, they have struggled in their 2013 games against strong nonconference teams, losing to Benilde, East, and Blaine.

Those losses hurt perhaps, but they also beat Blaine, Eagan, St. Thomas and Maple Grove and you can't deny going 6-0 against EDI, EP and WAY. That said I agree they will need play a soundly fundamental game with very few mistakes should they get a chance at BSM in the section finals.

[karl(east)]

All seeds are now final, and have been entered. Only one mild surprise, as Rochester Mayo lands the 2-seed in 1AA, while Lakeville South drops to #3.

[Doc Holliday]

If all the top seeds make it to state, it would look something like this:
1) Hill Murray
2) BSM
3) D East
4) Edina
5) Eagan
6-8) Blaine, Lakeville, Moorhead

So to answer your question....Blaine

If it plays out this way, I'd flip Edina & Eagan, but since they're seeding 5 this year, only thing it affects is last line change. The rest I agree with.

And if Tonka wins 6AA, I'd have them at 2, but they'd probably be 3 with East up at 2 because of the 2 head to head wins.

[RoseauHockeyFan]

Karl, thanks for doing the rankings once again this year. I really enjoyed reading your break down of the teams each week. It was a job well done, and you are to be congratulated.

Best, The Roseau Hockey Fan

[5 For Fighting]

Happy section tournament time! This week, instead of putting the write-ups with the rankings, I’ll simply list the end-of-regular-season Top 25, then make my comments on the teams in the features on each section.

5AA
Quarters: Sat 2/23 Champlin Park/Coon Rapids
Semis: Wed 2/27 Coliseum
Final: Fri 3/1 Coliseum

1. Blaine (19-5-1/#7)
-The Bengals had an adventurous final week, as they were tripped up by Maple Grove but pulled out an overtime win against Minnetonka. Their forward depth is among the best in the state, but their defensive performances against other quality teams have been rather spotty. The Maple Grove loss poses some questions about their ability to get out of the section, but there’s no doubt they have the most potential of anyone here, and the road to the section final shouldn’t be too challenging.
2. Centennial (19-4-2/#11)
-The Cougars needed overtime to get by Robbinsdale Armstrong on Tuesday, which continues a trend of less-than-stellar results. As they don’t have a lot of firepower, they will need to rely on goaltender Patrick Munson and complete team defense to have any shot of coming out of this section.
3. Maple Grove (14-11/#19)
-The Crimson ended a tumultuous season on a high note, as they knocked off Blaine and threw a wrench into the 5AA picture. Their last loss to Centennial was only by one goal, and with a talented first unit and reasonable depth, they’re suddenly in decent shape to defend their 5AA title.
.

I find the 5AA section interesting with any of these three teams coming out of the section. Blaine has been the most consistent all year and has been high scoring the last 4 weeks of the season. Maple Grove seems to have regained focus and is playing good hockey. Their victory over Blaine last week let teams know they are back and I agree with Karl's assessment of a very strong first line. Centennial can easily take the section if Munson is on his game but I don't think they have the offensive firepower to win a shutout.

Blaine over MG 6-5 in section championship to regain a trip to state.