AA Rankings for 12/1/13

[karl(east)]

Here’s your first set of in-season rankings.

I’m happy to announce that these rankings will be appearing on mnhockeyprospects.com for a third straight season. They should be going up over there shortly.

Now, on to the mess that was the first week and a half of the high school hockey season:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (2-0)
-The honest truth is that there is no real number one. The Red Knights cruised to victory over Rochester Lourdes and Duluth Denfeld; that isn’t a whole lot to brag about, but as the highest-ranked team in the preseason poll that remains undefeated or otherwise unchanged, they default to the top spot. Road games against Burnsville and Hill-Murray this coming week will give them a chance to actually earn that rank, though things are fluid enough at this point in the season that teams can drop from the top spot without actually losing. It’s going to be that sort of season.
This week: Tues vs. Mounds View, Thurs at Burnsville, Sat at #5 Hill-Murray

2. Blaine (2-0)
-The Bengals put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard during their swing north to play Moorhead and Roseau, though they did give up four goals in both games, too. There’s obviously plenty of talent here, but they’re going to have to be a bit stouter defensively in games against the very best. They have an important section battle with Centennial looming later this week.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat vs. Centennial

3. Elk River (1-0)
-The Elks only played one game in the opening week, but they made it count, knocking off an Edina team that had looked great in its first three games. On that alone, there’s a case for putting them at the top, but my December mantra has always been “one game does not a season make,” so we’ll see how well they can back up that win. They only play once this coming week as well, though the game does have some 7AA implications.
This week: Sat vs. Andover

4. Edina (3-1)
-The Hornets looked near-untouchable in the Turkey Trot tournament and in a big win over Centennial, but the Elk River loss puts the early talk of dominance to rest. They’re almost certainly the deepest team in the state, but they remain a bit green on the blue line, and against a good and disciplined team like the Elks, that can make all the difference. With their schedule, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to be forgiven for the occasional loss, and that process begins this week with two more games against good teams, one of which is a section rival.
This week: Tues vs. #11 Prior Lake, Sat at Eagan

5. Hill-Murray (1-0)
-The Pioneers took care of business against Burnsville, and while that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive now that the Blaze have also lost to Lakeville North, it was a good start to the season. They continue their nonconference slate this week with a big game against Benilde, though they can’t overlook a decent Lakeville South team, either. This ranking also takes the lack of Willie Brown into account; the preseason rankings were done before his departure from the team.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South, Sat vs. #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

6. Eden Prairie (1-0)
-There isn’t much to be said about an easy win over Osseo, so the Eagles hold their position in the rankings and gear up for some slightly more challenging tests this coming week. They play a bunch of decent teams over the next two weeks, but don’t face another top-ten team until the Edina Holiday Classic.
This week: Tues vs. Rosemount, Sat at Lakeville South

7. Duluth East (2-0)
-The Hounds had a drama-filled week, needing a last-minute comeback to escape perennial 7AA doormat Cambridge before turning around and beating Wayzata 3-2. As a young team whose strength is in its defense, they probably will have more low-scoring adventures like the Cambridge contest before the season is out. But they also are a disciplined squad whose coach knows what he’s doing, and the Wayzata win proves they can beat anyone on any given night. With so much uncertainty out there in the rankings, that fact is enough to get the Hounds into the top ten.
This week: Tues vs. Anoka, Thurs at Superior (WI)

8. Wayzata (3-2)
-The Trojans had an up-and-down start to their year; they won a tight contest with Maple Grove and rolled over Hermantown, but Edina handled them without too much trouble, and they fell to Duluth East as well. They’re still a quality defensive squad, but until they start to take a little more control of games against other top teams, they won’t be able to reclaim that preseason #1 ranking. This week’s game against Burnsville could be instructive for both teams.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Burnsville

9. St. Thomas Academy (1-0-1)
-The Cadets rolled to victory in their opener, but a head-scratching tie against Holy Angels drops them a couple of spots. Yes, they dominated on the shot counter, but the result wasn’t quite there in the end. Next up are a couple of other decent teams that could give them a good fight.
This week: Wed vs. Holy Family, Sat at #15 Lakeville North

10. White Bear Lake (2-0)
-The win over Lakeville South took overtime, but the Bears are off to a good start, with quality offensive production in their two games. While they do face a couple of decent bubble teams, they don’t play anyone in the current top 25 until January. That means the Bears probably have to win out the rest of the month to stay in the top ten.
This week: Thurs at Hastings, Sat vs. Mounds View

11. Prior Lake (1-0)
-As expected, the Lakers had little trouble in their opening win over Chanhassen. This week’s lone game is an entirely different challenge, though, as Edina looms. They came close to tripping up the Hornets in the regular season last year; how will they fare this time around?
This week: Tues at #4 Edina

12. Maple Grove (1-1)
-The Crimson showed some good fight in the Turkey Trot, taking Wayzata to overtime and clawing out a last-second win against Holy Family. They aren’t going to overwhelm other top teams, but they’re scrappy and have no obvious weaknesses, meaning they should be in contention from start to finish. They now head into Northwestern Suburban Conference action, though their first two opponents are not among its leading contenders.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at Armstrong

13. Eastview (2-0)
-This is where things start to get a bit messy, but the Lightning beat Lakeville North, who beat a good Burnsville team. Time will tell if this is a genuine proof of their talent or simply fun with the transitive property, but for now, we’ll go with what we have. Add in a comfortable win over East Ridge and a decent track record, and they’re in the top 15.
This week: Sat vs. Hopkins

14. Minnetonka (2-0)
-The Skippers took care of business in week one, though the Anoka game was a competitive one. They’ll hold steady in the back of the top 15 for now, and a game against the team immediately behind them could illuminate a few things going forward.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Lakeville North, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

15. Lakeville North (1-1)
-The Panthers had one of the more impressive wins of the first week of the season, as they marched right over Burnsville 5-2. They also lost to a decent Eastview team, so it’s hard to say too much yet, but there is at least some potential here. A busy week ahead includes both Minnetonka and St. Thomas Academy, and that should give us a much better idea as to their legitimacy as a top-15 team.
This week: Tues at #14 Minnetonka, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. #9 St. Thomas Academy

Bubble Teams in Rough Order

Holy Family (1-2-1)
-The record, which includes an 8-0 loss Edina, may not look very good, but the Fire gave Maple Grove a good fight, blew out a Holy Angels team that tied St. Thomas Academy, and tied a good Breck squad. To go much higher they’ll need to turn some of those close games into wins, but there is reason for some optimism here. Next up: St. Thomas on Wednesday.

Burnsville (1-2)
-The Blaze have been all over the map in the early going, with a blowout win over Rosemount, a reasonable loss to Hill-Murray, and a rough loss to Lakeville North. This is harsh, perhaps, but they need to show some consistency if they want to stay up around the top ten. Games against Benilde and Wayzata this coming week will give them every opportunity to right the ship.

Lakeville South (1-1)
-The Cougars have looked competitive in the early going, beating Eagan and taking White Bear Lake to overtime. We’ll see if they can continue the trend as the schedule gets even more difficult, with looming games against Hill-Murray and Eden Prairie

Grand Rapids (2-0)
-Neither win was especially impressive, but the Thunderhawks got Ws against Bemidji and Forest Lake to start the season on the right note and shore up their 7AA credentials. They take a road trip to the northwest this coming weekend, as they visit Roseau and Warroad.

Centennial (0-1)
-Lost 6-1 to Edina, but it’s just one game. Blaine looms in a big 5AA and NWSC game this Saturday.

Eagan (1-1)
-The season-opening loss to Lakeville South drops the Wildcats from the top 15, though they rebounded with a narrow win over Farmington. Two nonconference games are on the docket this week, including a tough one against Edina.

Cretin-Derham Hall (1-0)
-Handled Mahtomedi in their only game, and next face decent teams from Forest Lake and Hastings. Not much to say here yet.

Brainerd (0-0)
-Open their season in Alexandria on Tuesday, and should not face any challenges this week.

Bloomington Jefferson (2-0)
-Handled tests against decent East Ridge and Cloquet teams; Minnetonka this week should prove a much more serious test.

Moorhead (0-1)
-Lost to Blaine, but hung in there better than Roseau, and this ranking is also an adjustment for the return of Aaron Herdt. The Spuds have three games this week, including a section battle at Bemidji.

Roseau (1-2)
-The shutout loss to Thief River Falls wasn’t a very good start, and they allowed 8 goals to Blaine before rebounding for their first win over St. Francis. We’ll see if the Rams can show some signs of improvement against Grand Rapids this Friday.

Things should start to make a little more sense next week. If you’re on Twitter, you can follow me at https://twitter.com/KarlEastHockey.

[elliott70]

I have a whole different idea, but I like looking at these.
And I am too busy (read lazy) to do my own.

[karl(east)]

This is a bit disappointing. We don't know much about BSM, since they haven't played top teams, so let's put them at number one. We thought we knew a lot about Edina, but after they lost one game, we're not so sure. We knew nothing about Elk River, but winning exactly as many games as Edina has lost moves the Elks near the top. Hill-Murray did beat a top team but lost one guy, so we don't know if we know the Pioneers or even whether the team they beat was really a top team, either.

Is there even one team that hasn't seen a large shift in these rankings?

With this type of indecision and volatility, we're bound to be able to look back at season's end and find one of these weekly rankings mirroring reality, but we're also likely to find sixteen Sundays that miss the mark.

It's a valid concern, I think, but let's look back at the preseason top 15:

1. Wayzata
2. Hill-Murray (with Brown)
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Blaine
6. Eden Prairie
7. St. Thomas
8. Elk River
9. Burnsville
10. White Bear
11. Prior Lake
12. Maple Grove
13. Centennial
14. Eagan
15. Minnetonka

6 teams haven't moved at all, or moved just one spot: Edina, EP, WBL, PL, MG, and Tonka.

STA moved down two for a weak tie. Benilde moved two, but if the preseason rankings had reflected the Brown incident, it would probably be only one.

Hill basically dropped two because of Brown, and one to make room for Elk River, who--based on our very small one-game sample--deserve to be higher than the preseason #8. Similarly, Blaine jumped three, basically one for Brown and two because two teams in front of them lost.

Centennial and Eagan were close to the edge, lost, and dropped out. Eastview was on the bubble and climbed in.

Wayzata dropped a lot, but they have played 5 games (3 of which I've seen), and with 2 losses, they aren't really looking like a top 5 team right now. Top ten, certainly, but anything more at the moment would be a bit of a stretch.

Duluth East had a big win and jumped accordingly; perhaps too much, but they certainly looked like they were on even terms with Wayzata in their game with the Trojans, and it doesn't make much sense to put them behind the Trojans after that win.

Similarly, Burnsville had a bad loss and dropped a lot, perhaps too far, but again, it's hard to justify putting them ahead of North after that loss.

This is an awkward time in doing rankings. It's a combination of preseason thoughts and actual results, and blending the two isn't seamless. It's even more tough when you have some teams like Wayzata and Edina that have a decent body of work already, and others like Hill and Elk River who have only played one game. I could've been very conservative and hardly moved anyone for these early wins, but that would've made little sense in a few cases. I also could have rigidly followed A-beats-B-so-A-must-be-ahead-of-B logic, which might put a team like Elk River at #1. I went for the middle ground.

I agree it isn't always smooth, and in the past I have said I don't want to be the person who tells you ten things over the course of the season and tries to tell you he was right all along at the end of the season. But what's the alternative? The rankings are supposed to capture the top AA teams on one particular day, not predict what they will be in March.

[GoldenBear]

Well said Karl. Keep up the weekly updates! Thanks for a good read. GB

[elliott70]

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. Elk River (1-0)
4. Duluth East
5. Benilde
6. Eden Prairie
7. Hill Murray
8. White Bear Lake
9. Grand Rapids
10. Prior lake
11. Minnetonka
12. East View
13. Maple Grove
14. Bloomington Jefferson
15. Bemidji

[east hockey]

Hey Karl; you're in the press box now.

Lewie, stick around. You'll learn.

Lee

[karl(east)]

To be clear, I've never, ever claimed to be a "media expert." (In fact, the preseason rankings usually have a disclaimer along these lines; but I didn't put it in this year because I don't like to repeat myself endlessly.) I've never made a dime off of my writing, aside from a few side perks like a free book to which I contributed and State Tourney press passes. Any reputation I have, and any of my appearances in media more formal than this forum (the Hub preview book, MNHockeyProspects) is the direct result of what I've done on this forum.

These rankings began in a very informal fashion six years ago, when I was pretty young and not yet a moderator on this forum. I still give them the vague title "AA rankings for ***" because it was common at the time for other people to tack on their own after mine. They've taken on a life of their own since then, but wherever they end up, I'll always put them on here. I keep putting them on this forum because I enjoy the give-and-take, and hearing people comment on games or make cases for particular teams that I, as some kid from Duluth, may not see as often. Intelligent people can (and perhaps even should) disagree; I guess my guarantee is that I'll try to lay out my complete reasoning for anyone, whether you agree with it or not, and that's not something you're likely to find anywhere else. And if you push me on one particular thing, I'm happy to explain it further.

At this point of the season, I'd agree that just about anyone with a vague knowledge of the teams can throw a bunch of good teams' names out there and come up with a halfway defensible order. I remember being in high school and reading the LPH rankings in the paper every week and wondering "why?" Why did team X rise, while team Y fell? I'm trying to answer that "why" here, to the best of my ability.

The reason I have a long bubble is not out of indecision, but because I think the teams in that portion of the rankings deserve some recognition, too. I like to keep up (at least somewhat) with a lot of teams, rather than fixating on the top few every week. This is also helpful later in the season, when we get around to section seeding and those mid-level section games. It also helps make sure that teams don't sneak out of nowhere to jump into the top 15 later in the season.

[karl(east)]

Hey Karl; you're in the press box now.

Lewie, stick around. You'll learn.

Lee

Guess I'm an institution now, aren't I?

Makes me feel kinda old.

[Rich Clarke]

You can't really argue that these rankings fail to take into account an insider's perspective. Karl had Benilde and Blaine ranked in the top five last week and they have yet to face a legitimate test, but moved up anyway. I think that's based far more on an insider's opinion than what they've accomplished to date on the ice. Further, Hill Murray was ranked second, and now fifth, not based on what they've done on the ice, but because of Karl's analysis of the team with and without Willie Brown. Maybe the season will prove those rankings wrong, but right now, Karl is going out on a limb more than reading scores in the paper.

I personally tend to think that it's far easier for a top team to be upset occasionally than a merely good team to repeatedly beat top 10-20 competition. For that reason, I'd be a lot more likely to rank Edina higher right now than four given that they beat three good teams and lost a close road game to a top eight team. But Karl had Edina no. 4 before, and it's hard to move up when you lose a game. I just would have had them higher right off the bat and left them there. But if Karl's right and Edina is a bit weak on defense, four is probably fair.

I also think adjusting rankings based on actual games played is only fair, and dropping Burnsville and St. Thomas for now, and moving Duluth East up is entirely appropriate. Rankings are always the product of an analysis of talent combined with on ice results. I don't always agree with Karl, but I certainly respect how he reaches his conclusions, and can't argue with the methodology.

The fact that the insiders' top 20 looks a lot like the public's is that there just aren't many surprises in AA hockey generally. What the public may not easily grasp is the differences that make one top team better than another, and perhaps worse than someone else. Karl's rankings provide legitimate insight. They may generate debate, or change as teams exceed expectations or fall short, but I'd think that's a good thing.

Finally, they're just one person's opinion. I don't recall Karl ever professing to be invariably correct, or one who ridicules dissent. In fact, it seems that he welcomes it when it's respectful and reasoned. (and perhaps even when it's not!)

In the end, rankings don't mean a whole lot when the top team (which may or may not be the state's best team) is determined in a state championship. But until a champion emerges, it's nice to read the opinions of someone who puts in the time, and is as unbiased as anyone could hope for given that he has a favorite horse in the race.

Keep up the good work, Karl.

[HShockeywatcher]

Can anyone shed any light on the 10-1 HF over AHA game? I know AHA was still in the football playoffs; any good players on that team?

Also, the goalie who played against St Thomas is the reason they were in that game at all. He played amazingly well, although he wasn't in net for the HF game. Good defense and a really good goalie.

[elliott70]

Hey Karl; you're in the press box now.

Lewie, stick around. You'll learn.

Lee

Guess I'm an institution now, aren't I?

Makes me feel kinda old.

Some say you should be institutionalized.
But that is for another thread.

[Sk8 Str8]

Lewie

Is there even one team that hasn't seen a large shift in these rankings?

We are a week into the season with some teams not even playing yet...and in less than 8 hours you have ruined the first AA Rankings update...

Edit that...BRAVO

[east hockey]

Lewie

Is there even one team that hasn't seen a large shift in these rankings?

We are a week into the season with some teams not even playing yet...and in less than 8 hours you have ruined the first AA Rankings update...

He won't ruin the next.

Lee

[Slammer]

Love the rankings, nice work.

[secondplace3x]

[quote="Slammer"]Love the rankings, nice work.[/quote]Karl, the rankings are great always fun to read. Sounds like Lewie's team, in his opinion, dropped and should not have, or should have been raised. Lewie, Karl has lots of respect on this site so live and learn. By the way I don't ever like my team to be rated to high, it just create to many issues. And Lewie, most teams lose during the season it's part of the process of learning. If they peak to early that can be bad. So thanks for making me laugh Lewie. This site is great for new guys including me. Oh and Rich Clarke I would never debate you, you write too darn well. Karl also writes very well. Thanks to you both.

[WarmUpTheBus]

This is a bit disappointing. We don't know much about BSM, since they haven't played top teams, so let's put them at number one. We thought we knew a lot about Edina, but after they lost one game, we're not so sure. We knew nothing about Elk River, but winning exactly as many games as Edina has lost moves the Elks near the top. Hill-Murray did beat a top team but lost one guy, so we don't know if we know the Pioneers or even whether the team they beat was really a top team, either.

Is there even one team that hasn't seen a large shift in these rankings?

With this type of indecision and volatility, we're bound to be able to look back at season's end and find one of these weekly rankings mirroring reality, but we're also likely to find sixteen Sundays that miss the mark.

Your rankings are very well thought out and reasonable. Thanks for the effort.
I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up on another High School team?

It's a valid concern, I think, but let's look back at the preseason top 15:

1. Wayzata
2. Hill-Murray (with Brown)
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Blaine
6. Eden Prairie
7. St. Thomas
8. Elk River
9. Burnsville
10. White Bear
11. Prior Lake
12. Maple Grove
13. Centennial
14. Eagan
15. Minnetonka

6 teams haven't moved at all, or moved just one spot: Edina, EP, WBL, PL, MG, and Tonka.

STA moved down two for a weak tie. Benilde moved two, but if the preseason rankings had reflected the Brown incident, it would probably be only one.

Hill basically dropped two because of Brown, and one to make room for Elk River, who--based on our very small one-game sample--deserve to be higher than the preseason #8. Similarly, Blaine jumped three, basically one for Brown and two because two teams in front of them lost.

Centennial and Eagan were close to the edge, lost, and dropped out. Eastview was on the bubble and climbed in.

Wayzata dropped a lot, but they have played 5 games (3 of which I've seen), and with 2 losses, they aren't really looking like a top 5 team right now. Top ten, certainly, but anything more at the moment would be a bit of a stretch.

Duluth East had a big win and jumped accordingly; perhaps too much, but they certainly looked like they were on even terms with Wayzata in their game with the Trojans, and it doesn't make much sense to put them behind the Trojans after that win.

Similarly, Burnsville had a bad loss and dropped a lot, perhaps too far, but again, it's hard to justify putting them ahead of North after that loss.

This is an awkward time in doing rankings. It's a combination of preseason thoughts and actual results, and blending the two isn't seamless. It's even more tough when you have some teams like Wayzata and Edina that have a decent body of work already, and others like Hill and Elk River who have only played one game. I could've been very conservative and hardly moved anyone for these early wins, but that would've made little sense in a few cases. I also could have rigidly followed A-beats-B-so-A-must-be-ahead-of-B logic, which might put a team like Elk River at #1. I went for the middle ground.

I agree it isn't always smooth, and in the past I have said I don't want to be the person who tells you ten things over the course of the season and tries to tell you he was right all along at the end of the season. But what's the alternative? The rankings are supposed to capture the top AA teams on one particular day, not predict what they will be in March.

Your rankings are very well thought out and reasonable. Thanks for the effort.
I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up at Blaine? If not is he on anyone's roster?

[karl(east)]

I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up at Blaine? If not is he on anyone's roster?

He's not playing MN HS hockey. The Blaine comment was only to explain that Blaine moved ahead of HM here because of Brown's absence from the HM roster.

He was playing MNJHL hockey at some point. Not sure if he's sticking with that or trying to move up to the NAHL or USHL.

Thanks for the support, everyone. (Except Elliot, who apparently wants me to join him in his institution. )

[TTpuckster]

I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up at Blaine? If not is he on anyone's roster?

He's not playing MN HS hockey. The Blaine comment was only to explain that Blaine moved ahead of HM here because of Brown's absence from the HM roster.

He was playing MNJHL hockey at some point. Not sure if he's sticking with that or trying to move up to the NAHL or USHL.

Thanks for the support, everyone. (Except Elliot, who apparently wants me to join him in his institution. )

Ha!!!

You may need to be institutionalized.
But you would never need to be in one as bizarre as Elliot's.
In a league of his own. (No doubt)

[MrBoDangles]

Can anyone shed any light on the 10-1 HF over AHA game? I know AHA was still in the football playoffs; any good players on that team?

Also, the goalie who played against St Thomas is the reason they were in that game at all. He played amazingly well, although he wasn't in net for the HF game. Good defense and a really good goalie.

[TheMNhockey1]

I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up at Blaine? If not is he on anyone's roster?

He's not playing MN HS hockey. The Blaine comment was only to explain that Blaine moved ahead of HM here because of Brown's absence from the HM roster.

He was playing MNJHL hockey at some point. Not sure if he's sticking with that or trying to move up to the NAHL or USHL.

I heard from Tartan kids Willie Brown went to play Jr Gold for Edina

[Nuts&Bolts]

Elliott, no love for Wayzata after a couple of tough losses? Also where does STAA fall in your single A rankings if you were to publish them?

And thanks Karl. These are fun to read and bicker about though things really don't start to settle in until after Christmas with new players, coaches, lines, ect. BTW - so much for being able to slow play East too much.

[elliott70]

Elliott, no love for Wayzata after a couple of tough losses? Also where does STAA fall in your single A rankings if you were to publish them?

And thanks Karl. These are fun to read and bicker about though things really don't start to settle in until after Christmas with new players, coaches, lines, ect. BTW - so much for being able to slow play East too much.

I had Wayzata 8 on my hand written top 20, just skipped them when entering.

[elliott70]

Elliott, no love for Wayzata after a couple of tough losses? Also where does STAA fall in your single A rankings if you were to publish them?

And thanks Karl. These are fun to read and bicker about though things really don't start to settle in until after Christmas with new players, coaches, lines, ect. BTW - so much for being able to slow play East too much.

St Thomas?
Probably 2 at least 4.

[Shinbone_News]

I'm a little confused about the Willy Brown commentary. I assume he is no longer at HM. Did he end up at Blaine? If not is he on anyone's roster?

He's not playing MN HS hockey. The Blaine comment was only to explain that Blaine moved ahead of HM here because of Brown's absence from the HM roster.

He was playing MNJHL hockey at some point. Not sure if he's sticking with that or trying to move up to the NAHL or USHL.

I heard from Tartan kids Willie Brown went to play Jr Gold for Edina

Willie Brown is now on the roster at the MNJHL's Northern Lights.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Thanks for the effort Karl, but I honestly don't understand your thinking in this edition of your rankings even with your explanation. Oh well, I have noticed in the past we tend to differ anyway. I do enjoy and respect your rankings though.