AA Rankings for 12/29/13

[karl(east)]

Most teams are hitting the halfway mark of their regular seasons this week, and the holiday tournaments have given us a few clear winners, a few surprises, and plenty of confusion. As I often do around this point, I’ve added a second record to the teams’ record lines; this is what each team has done against the top 20-some teams in both classes. It’s not an exact guide—obviously, wins over teams in the top five are worth more than wins against teams in the upper 20s—but it can be helpful.

1. Edina (10-2/10-2)
-The Hornets pulled out their first Schwan Cup Gold title since 2008, taking down previously undefeated Hill-Murray in the process and laying stake to the top spot in the state at midseason. With two losses, the defending champs obviously have some vulnerabilities, and with their meat grinder schedule—four games all season against teams outside the top 25—they’re going to be tested time and time again down the stretch. They have so many weapons, though, and also showed off their resiliency in a comeback against Burnsville in the semifinals. They’ll rematch with the Blaze this week, and have also managed to cram in two more games against two Suburban East teams with impressive records but few tests against top teams to date. They could probably lose once this week and still hold on to the top spot.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs at #5 Burnsville, Sat vs. White Bear Lake

2. Hill-Murray (9-1/5-1)
-The Pioneers’ loss to Edina drops them from the top spot, even though they carried play for a majority of the game. The chief concern here is on defense; they’ve give up three or more goals in five of their last six games and seven of ten total contests. That isn’t an awful number, but it’s not quite championship caliber, either. An intriguing battle with surging Lakeville North looms on Saturday.
This week: Sat at #9 Lakeville North

3. Wayzata (9-3/6-3)
-After a sluggish start, the Trojan title contender we all expected appeared at the Sports Authority Holiday Classic in St. Louis Park. The 4-0 shutout of Blaine in the championship game was especially impressive, and while some of those narrow early losses might hold them back in a different year, no one else has made much of a claim on this spot in the rankings, so the Trojans go soaring back up to #3. If they want to stay here, they’ll have to earn it; the week ahead features two huge section games against Benilde and Holy Family.
This week: Tues vs. #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at #11 Holy Family

4. Blaine (8-2-1/4-2-1)
-This is a tough spot to fill in the rankings; Blaine ends up getting some benefit of the doubt and staying put at #4 despite a shutout loss to Wayzata and a tie to Lakeville North. They did pick up a big win over Maple Grove, which makes them an easy favorite for the top seed in 5AA. The Bengals’ offense has been as good as any so far this year, but against the two best defensive teams they’ve played—Wayzata and East Grand Forks—they’ve mustered just one goal. They play a decent Andover squad this week.
This week: Sat at Andover

5. Burnsville (8-4/6-4)
-The Blaze took third in the Schwan Cup Gold, beating a very good St. Thomas Academy team in the process. What they’ll remember from this one, though, was the loss, in which they had Edina on the ropes in the semifinals and blew a three-goal third period lead. They get a second crack at their longtime nemesis this week as they try to shake that tag as the Hornets’ whipping boys.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Edina

6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-2-2/4-2-2)
-The Red Knights restored some order with a 2-0-1 showing in St. Louis Park, a run headlined by a 5-2 win over Eden Prairie. Between that win and their victory over Burnsville earlier in the season, there’s no doubting the potential here; they just have to find that on a consistent basis, and the tie with Jefferson suggests they’re not quite there yet. A win at Wayzata this week, on the other hand, probably would.
This week: Thurs at #3 Wayzata

7. Eden Prairie (8-3/5-3)
-After a 7-0 start, the Eagles have dropped three of their last four. The way they’re losing is also a matter of some concern; the 7-0 stunner against Lakeville North and a 5-2 loss to section rival Benilde raise some doubts about, well, just about everything. Their early season work gives them enough of a cushion that they don’t drop too far, but this team needs to right the ship soon if they want to stay in the conversation for elite status. They have two more tough games in their immediate future.
This week: Thurs at Prior Lake, Sat vs. #10 Duluth East

8. Elk River (6-3/3-3)
-Handled Forest Lake in their only game this past week. The Elks remain a bit of an enigma after their showing in Edina, but they do still have that win over the Hornets, and the Forest Lake win shores up their standing in 7AA. They now settle into a stretch of games within the Northwest Suburban Conference.
This week: Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong

9. Lakeville North (8-3-1/4-3-1)
-I’ve been plugging this team as the clear 1AA favorite for a little bit now, but I doubt even the staunchest Panther backers saw that holiday tournament showing coming. After steamrolling Eden Prairie and Bloomington Jefferson and pulling out a quality tie against Blaine, they’ve proven they can beat anyone in the state. It also makes them a nightmare to rank, as they put up those results plus a big win over Burnsville against losses to teams like Eastview and Minnetonka. Right now, they’re playing better than #9, but I’m not going to get carried away after one week. They still have a lot of tough games to play, and if they’re for real, they’ll have every chance to move on up. Up next: the second-ranked Pioneers.
This week: Sat vs. #2 Hill-Murray

10. Duluth East (7-3/3-3)
-The Hounds took 5th in the Schwan Cup Gold for the second year in a row, spotting six goals to Hill-Murray before settling in for stingy defensive wins over Prior Lake and Breck. The road trip to Eden Prairie this week should be an interesting one.
This week: Fri vs. Hopkins, Sat at #7 Eden Prairie

11. Holy Family (6-2-1/2-2-1)
-The Fire sat idle while all of the other top teams beat up on each other in tough holiday tournaments. There is a case for putting them higher now that Benilde looks better, but I’m skeptical of lifting a team too far in the rankings when they don’t even play a game. A win over Wayzata would help back up that result against Benilde, and also put them in fantastic position for seeding in 6AA.
This week: Sat vs. #3 Wayzata

12. St. Thomas Academy (5-3-1/2-3)
-The Cadets’ losses to Burnsville and Breck were very narrow, but they were losses nonetheless, and in this muddled year, that’s enough to drop them from the top ten. There’s plenty of talent here, but as a relatively young squad, they haven’t been able to pull out any of their close games against elite teams yet. They play a couple of old Class A friends this week.
This week: Thurs at Totino-Grace, Sat vs. Mahtomedi

13. Grand Rapids (9-3/3-2)
-The Thunderhawks won all three of their games in the Perpich North-South Challenge, including close contests with above average Brainerd and Mahtomedi teams. They sure get outshot a lot, but they seem to have themselves a winning formula, and at this point, that’s good enough. They host a pair of mild upset threats this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. Hopkins

14. Eastview (8-2/2-2)
-The Lightning took home gold in the Silver Division of the Schwan Cup, giving up just one goal in all three of their games. Their early season win over Lakeville North now looks more impressive than we ever thought it would, and the Centennial victory gives them a second quality win. Their remaining nonconference schedule is pretty easy, so they’ll have to rely on their bigger SSC games if they want to edge up any further.
This week: Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy

15. Maple Grove (6-5-1/3-5-1)
-The Crimson got roughed up by Blaine in the first round of the Sports Authority tournament, but bounced back by taking Eden Prairie to overtime and edging Moorhead. They’ve been in an awful lot of tight games this year, with mixed results along the way. The schedule eases up some over the next few weeks.
This week: Sat at Rogers

The Next Ten

Centennial (6-4/2-4)
-A Silver Division loss to Eastview drops the Cougars from the top 15, and leaves their victory over Duluth East as their only real achievement against a top 20 team. They’ll get a crack at a good White Bear team in a nonconference game on Thursday; after that, they play strictly NWSC teams until the last week of the season.

Bloomington Jefferson (6-4-1/2-4-1)
-A tie against Benilde was a quality result for the Jaguars, but they dropped their second and third games of the Sports Authority tournament by a combined 11-2 score. They’ve shown little flashes, but nothing worthy of a spot in the top 15 yet. A battle with Eagan on Saturday will help with this part of the rankings.

Cretin-Derham Hall (7-1-1/1-1)
-A win over Eagan was big for the Raiders’ section seeding placement, and was also their first win of any major substance this season. The week ahead is a busy one, as they play Edina, Blake, and Roseville.

White Bear Lake (8-1-1/0-0)
-The Bears have been rolling through SEC teams lately, but still have not yet had a serious test. That changes this week, when they take on a decent Centennial team and top-ranked Edina. I suspect they’re better than this ranking, but they have to prove it, and with their schedule, they really had to go undefeated in December simply to tread water.

Minnetonka (5-6/2-6)
-The Skippers scored six straight goals to pick up a quality win against Prior Lake, and did a decent job hanging around with Hill before folding in the latter stages of the Schwan Cup. They play Stillwater and Chanhassen this week; after those two, they might have three games left for the remainder of the season in which they’ll be favored. The record could get ugly, even though they’re capable of knocking off some pretty good teams.

Prior Lake (4-5/1-4)
-The Lakers had an unpleasant welcome to the Schwan Cup Gold, dropping three straight by three goals each. They still have a nice win over Eagan, but their games against other quality teams have been a bit lopsided. Their battle with Eden Prairie this week is an interesting match-up of teams with something to prove.

Eagan (8-4/2-3)
-It’s tough to know what to do with the Wildcats. They have that Edina win, and now also have one over Hermantown, though the Hawks haven’t done much yet against above average competition. The Cretin loss will make a top-2 seed tough to claim, Prior Lake beat them, and they also lost to a 3-8 Lakeville South team. Until they can show some more consistent offensive output, they’ll sit back some in the rankings. A win over Jefferson this week would help their cause immensely.

Roseau (7-3/1-2)
-It was smooth sailing for the Rams in their own holiday tournament, with three wins over passable Class A competition. Both of their games this week are within 8AA, with Saturday’s battle with Brainerd being the most important one for section seeding. If they keep winning, they’ll eventually start to move up here.

Moorhead (5-7/1-7)
-The Spuds went 0-3 in St. Louis Park, but their losses were by a total of four goals to three top 15 teams, so they’ve at least shown they can be competitive with some of the state’s best. They need a few decent wins to go any higher, though. Their lone game this week is against Thief River Falls.

Andover (5-5/0-4)
-There really isn’t a good option for the 25th spot, so I’ll toss it to the Huskies, who have shown some offensive firepower and given a couple of good teams some close games. They play Blaine this week.

The week ahead is a short one for most teams, but there are a lot of big games packed in there. Head out and enjoy one.

[Sats81]

Nice work as always. Tough to rank 4-10 as there is a lot of shuffling going on.

[Immigrant Fan]

Grand Rapids is actually 9-3. Victories are over Bemidji, Forest Lake, Rosseau, Warroad, Virginia, Elk River, Mahtomedi, St. Francis, and Brainerd. Losses were to Duluth Marshall, Edina, and Eden Prairie.

[my2cents]

I'd put Burnsville at #4 and move Lakeville North up a spot or two. Every team seems to go thru a midseason slump at some point. Hill has had some non-convincing wins. It will be interesting to see if Elk River, STA and Eden Prarie can rebound back to form. Maple Grove has more potential than their recent showing. Benilde and Blaine are wild cards. I don't see Edina as a dominant team over the next 4 or 5 this year, so I think we're in for a wild ride.

[sanryam]

Maple Grove is probably the most underrated team thus far.

[CasseauCougar]

Maple Grove is probably the most underrated team thus far.

It would appear it will come down to a somewhat inexperienced coaching staff bringing some discipline to this team. Not an easy job, but the basic raw materials seem to be there. No doubt the coaches as players have a lot to draw from.

[WarmUpTheBus]

I'd put Burnsville at #4 and move Lakeville North up a spot or two. Every team seems to go thru a midseason slump at some point. Hill has had some non-convincing wins. It will be interesting to see if Elk River, STA and Eden Prarie can rebound back to form. Maple Grove has more potential than their recent showing. Benilde and Blaine are wild cards. I don't see Edina as a dominant team over the next 4 or 5 this year, so I think we're in for a wild ride.

I'm not sure Lakeville North should be ranked higher but after they beat Eden Prairie 7-0 they should at least be ranked higher than EP.

[MNHockeyFan]

I'm not sure Lakeville North should be ranked higher but after they beat Eden Prairie 7-0 they should at least be ranked higher than EP.

Good example of why I like rankings done by humans, like Karl's, over computer-based rankings, like KRACH. The human can give such results the full weight they deserve, like a lop-sided, recent head-to-head win such as this one. KRACH, on the other hand, would not take the margin of victory into account at all, and would give the same weight to a team's first game of the season as one played yesterday.

One big advantage that computer-based ranking systems do have is that they take any possibility of bias out of it. That's critical for certain situations, like in college where they pretty much stick to their system modeled after Pairwise rankings to seed the teams.

Otherwise I much prefer to see some analysis behind the rankings to support why Team A is ranked where it is, as opposed to just seeing what the computer model spits out...not much controversy in that!

[karl(east)]

Maple Grove is probably the most underrated team thus far.

It would appear it will come down to a somewhat inexperienced coaching staff bringing some discipline to this team. Not an easy job, but the basic raw materials seem to be there. No doubt the coaches as players have a lot to draw from.

I had them as high as #9 last week, and as I've said in the comments in the past, they're a good, scrappy team that can give good teams fits. The wheels obviously came off a bit in the Blaine game; we'll probably have to wait for the rematch to see whether they can overcome that. Things are so tight this year that teams will probably be moving up and down farther than usual.

As for the Blaine-Burnsville comment, I can certainly understand that sentiment...in fact, I was going back and forth on that one right up until posting the rankings. They could easily be flipped, though in the end I decided a 6-4 record is a little too iffy for a 4th-ranked team, even if they are quality losses.

Thanks for the comments, as always...keep them coming.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

I'd put Burnsville at #4 and move Lakeville North up a spot or two. Every team seems to go thru a midseason slump at some point. Hill has had some non-convincing wins. It will be interesting to see if Elk River, STA and Eden Prarie can rebound back to form. Maple Grove has more potential than their recent showing. Benilde and Blaine are wild cards. I don't see Edina as a dominant team over the next 4 or 5 this year, so I think we're in for a wild ride.

I'm not sure Lakeville North should be ranked higher but after they beat Eden Prairie 7-0 they should at least be ranked higher than EP.

I would agree with this.....just look at common opponents and look at the margin of victory for both, throw in head to head, and North should be higher......and stay higher until EP starts to learn the team thing.

[blueblood]

My top dozen AA teams:

1-Edina
2-Hill
3-Wayzata
4-Burnsville
5-BSM
6-Blaine
7-Lakeville
8-EP
9-GR
10-ER
11-East
12-STA

[SPUDNUT]

Karl -

Taters are actually 5-7 . . . . . . . . . . . . impressive, huh ? (Fargo South, Alexandria, Bemidji, Buffalo & Minnetonka).

[Bulldog3489]

I'm not sure Lakeville North should be ranked higher but after they beat Eden Prairie 7-0 they should at least be ranked higher than EP.

Good example of why I like rankings done by humans, like Karl's, over computer-based rankings, like KRACH. The human can give such results the full weight they deserve, like a lop-sided, recent head-to-head win such as this one. KRACH, on the other hand, would not take the margin of victory into account at all, and would give the same weight to a team's first game of the season as one played yesterday.

One big advantage that computer-based ranking systems do have is that they take any possibility of bias out of it. That's critical for certain situations, like in college where they pretty much stick to their system modeled after Pairwise rankings to seed the teams.

Otherwise I much prefer to see some analysis behind the rankings to support why Team A is ranked where it is, as opposed to just seeing what the computer model spits out...not much controversy in that!

I believe QRF and myhockeyrankings use margin of victory data. Most of the rankings have the same teams, but the order can change quite a bit.

myhockeyrankings top 15:

1 Edina HS 10-2-0 97.55 2.08 95.46
2 Burnsville HS 8-4-0 97.11 1.91 95.20
3 Wayzata HS 9-3-0 96.79 2.00 94.79
4 Hill Murray HS 9-1-0 96.46 2.30 94.16
5 Lakeville North HS 8-4-0 96.29 1.75 94.54
6 Blaine HS 9-2-0 96.25 2.90 93.34
7 St Thomas Academy 5-3-1 95.90 1.44 94.46
8 Benilde St Margarets HS 9-3-1 95.70 2.07 93.63
9 Elk River HS 7-3-0 95.68 1.00 94.68
10 Eastview HS 8-2-0 95.53 1.80 93.73
11 Eden Prairie HS 8-3-0 95.50 1.00 94.50
12 Maple Grove HS 6-5-1 95.21 0.50 94.71
13 Holy Family Catholic HS 6-2-1 95.16 1.77 93.39
14 Eagan HS 8-4-0 95.05 1.58 93.47
15 Duluth East HS 7-2-0 94.84 1.00 93.84


QRF top 15

Rankings: January 2, 2014

1 Edina (11-2) 100.9
2 Hill-Murray (9-1) 92.7
3 Eastview (8-2) 83.9
4 Wayzata (9-3) 83.5
5 Eden Prairie (8-3) 81.2
6 Elk River/Zimmerman (6-3) 80.0
7 Burnsville (8-4) 78.8
8 Blaine (8-2-1) 78.6
9 Lakeville North (8-3-1) 76.2
10 Grand Rapids (9-3) 75.7
11 White Bear Lake (8-1-1) 75.4
12 Duluth East (7-3) 73.0
13 Centennial (6-4) 72.4
T-14 Cretin-Derham Hall (7-2-1) 72.2
T-14 Eagan (8-4) 72.2