AA Rankings for 1/5/14

[karl(east)]

In our first set of 2014 rankings, we have tumult at the top. Here you go:

1. Edina (12-3)
-This sums up the confusion as well as anything: Edina lost to the current second-ranked team last week, but is still #1. The Hornets stay in the top spot due to their neutral site victory over the Blaze just a week ago, a strong rebound against White Bear Lake, and the fact that no one really comes close to matching their schedule difficulty so far. They’re vulnerable to losses and will certainly drop in the rankings if they fall again anytime soon, but they’ve avoided some of the longer slumps we’ve seen out of other teams, and their shortcomings are either minor or correctible. Only two games over the next two weeks, but they’re both against top five teams.
This week: Thurs at #4 Hill-Murray

2. Burnsville (9-4)
-Coach Kivihalme’s squad was one of the biggest winners of this past week, getting a huge monkey off their backs with the win over Edina. Their balanced scoring in the game was also a very good sign, and with an 8-1 mark in their last nine—the one loss coming to Edina in overtime—few teams are as hot as the Blaze. They now have some chance at the top seed in 2AA, and their lone game this week is relevant to that push.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson

3. Wayzata (11-3)
-The Trojans eked out a pair of one-goal wins over section opponents; while they had to survive at the end against Benilde and needed overtime to get by Holy Family, the wins make them the frontrunner for the top seed in 6AA. They’ve won 7 in a row, though Burnsville edges them for #2 because they did lose to the Blaze earlier in the year. Only one game this coming week, but it’s a big one within the rankings.
This week: Thurs at #4 Hill-Murray

4. Hill-Murray (9-2)
-The Pioneers were shut down by Lakeville North, dropping a second straight game; while they only have two losses and both are against very good teams, they aren’t going in the right direction at the moment. They can turn that around in a heartbeat with a big week this week, with games against two of the three teams ahead of them.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Wayzata, Sat vs. #1 Edina

5. Lakeville North (9-3-1)
-It’s a little awkward putting a team right behind one that they just shut out, but I don’t want to hit the Pioneers too hard for one loss, and the Panthers still do have some less-than-stellar losses on the schedule. That said, what a statement they’ve made: they’re unbeaten in their last eight games, a stretch that includes two shutouts over very potent offenses. They’ve earned the respect of the rest of the state, and they’ll have every chance to go higher. They play two decent conference teams this week in Eagan and Prior Lake.
This week: Tues at Eagan, Thurs at Rochester Century, Sat vs. Prior Lake

6. Blaine (9-2-1)
-The Bengals survived a scare against Andover; they lack a signature win to date, but they have a pretty good record against a respectable schedule, so that will have to do for now. A game against Elk River this coming week is especially important, and they can’t sleep on Minnetonka, either.
This week: Tues at Minnetonka, Thurs vs. #8 Elk River

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-3-2)
-The Red Knights played a strong defensive game against Wayzata, which is a good sign of improvement, but they still came up on the short end of a 2-1 score. The big games continue this week, as they face St. Thomas and a limping 6AA opponent in Minnetonka.
This week: Tues vs. #11 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Minnetonka

8. Elk River (7-3)
-The Elks have had a light load these past two weeks, but that changes now, with two straight 3-game weeks leading into Hockey Day in Minnesota. This week’s test against Blaine is especially big, and will decide who gets frontrunner status in the Northwest Suburban.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Thurs at #6 Blaine, Sat vs. Osseo

9. Duluth East (9-3)
-The Hounds’ defensive style may not always look pretty, but it often makes the opponent look even less pretty, as Eden Prairie learned this past week. Fun fact: the Hounds are now 8-2 against Lake Conference competition over the past two seasons. It’s rivalry week this week, as they face a Denfeld team that beat them last season and head to Grand Rapids for a huge section seeding battle.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Denfeld, Thurs at #12 Grand Rapids

10. Holy Family (6-3-1)
-The Fire took Wayzata to overtime this past week, and though they lost, they did establish themselves as a serious contender in 6AA. They may not have the depth of this section’s traditional powerhouses, but with their timely scoring and goaltending, they’re a threat to win on any night. Their schedule is significantly lighter from here on out, as they head into Wright County Conference action.
This week: Tues vs. Hutchinson, Thurs vs. Waconia, Sat at Hopkins

11. St. Thomas Academy (7-3-1)
-The Cadets handled a pair of top ten Class A teams this past week, the 8-2 victory over Mahtomedi in particular being a solid result. A clash with Benilde on Tuesday gives them a chance to climb back into the top ten, and they follow that up with two games against Classic Suburban teams.
This week: Tues at #7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat vs. North St. Paul

12. Grand Rapids (11-3)
-A couple of solid wins over mediocre opponents have the Thunderhawks sitting pretty as they head into one of their biggest weeks of the season. Hermantown has given them some trouble over the years, and the Duluth East game is as big as it gets for this squad in the regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown, Thurs vs. #9 Duluth East

13. Eden Prairie (8-4-1)
-The Eagles are in freefall, going 1-4-1 in their last six, the only win coming in overtime over a depleted Maple Grove squad. The same questions that plagued them last season over lack of depth and team play have resurfaced, and if they don’t find a fix, they’ll be languishing around here or worse for the rest of the season. They get a chance to lick their wounds this week before heading into Lake Conference action.
This week: Fri vs. Cloquet

14. Eastview (9-2)
-The Lightning cruised against Bloomington Kennedy. Both of their games this week are within the section, including a TCF Bank Stadium clash with Eagan in a rematch of last season’s section championship stunner. This time around, the Lightning have the edge going in.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Sat vs. Eagan

15. Maple Grove (7-5-1)
-The Crimson’s only action this past week involved an easy win over Rogers. They now head into the heart of NWSC play, which gives them a chance to improve their record; they face a decent Andover team this week.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. Champlin Park

After That

White Bear Lake (9-2-1)
-The Bears improved their non-conference résumé with a win over Centennial, but were humbled by Edina, and stay just outside the top 15. They play Cretin outdoors this week in a battle for the top of the conference.

Centennial (7-5)
-Mixed results for the Cougars, who lost a tight game to White Bear before beating Osseo. This week they play a couple of teams from the middle of the NWSC, Anoka and Andover.

Cretin-Derham Hall (9-2-1)
-Edina handled the Raiders without too much trouble, but they continue to beat everyone they should beat. This week they play East Ridge in a game with 3AA implications, plus White Bear.

Roseau (9-3)
-The Rams have won eight straight, giving up only five goals over a run that includes convincing section wins over Moorhead and Brainerd. The week ahead includes not only a game against decent 8AA opponent Bemidji, but a renewal of the state’s most storied rivalry against a potent Warroad team on Thursday.

Eagan (9-4-1)
-A tie against East Ridge isn’t a pretty result for the Wildcats, but they bounced back with a quality win over Bloomington Jefferson. The week ahead is a big one, as they face newly relevant Lakeville North and the Eastview team that wrecked their season last year.

Prior Lake (5-5-1)
-The Lakers’ tie with Eden Prairie was a step in the right direction after a tough Schwan Cup. A big week ahead includes Jefferson and Lakeville North; wins would get them back onto the doorstep of the top 15.

Bloomington Jefferson (6-5-1)
-The Jaguars have lost three straight, scoring only once in each. They’re clearly missing Johnny Panvica, but with or without him, they’ll ned a positive result against Burnsville or Prior Lake this week if they want to avoid the 4-seed in 2AA.

Moorhead (5-7)
-Weather wiped out the Spuds’ game against Thief River Falls, so they stay put. It’s another tough week for them, with a big section game against Brainerd and one against Breck.

After that, I’m giving Stillwater #24 and Forest Lake #25, but it gets pretty messy.

Time for a tour through the sections. As a reminder, likely contenders are listed in the order in which I’d seed them if the season were to end today.

1AA
5 Lakeville North
-With North’s emergence as an elite team, they are now the surest bet in Class AA; in fact, this might be the largest gap between a top-ranked AA team and the chase pack in my memory. Still, even the surest bets aren’t always safe; witness Eagan last season. After that, it’s a question of how high the coaches will be willing to seed Lakeville South; they are currently 3-9, but could still be the second-best team in this section, depending on what Farmington does. In a similar situation last season, Rochester Mayo stole the 2-seed, though South handled them in the playoffs.

2AA
1 Edina
2 Burnsville
(21) Prior Lake
(22) Bloomington Jefferson
-Burnsville’s win over Edina leaves the season series split, and means the top spot will probably depend on each team’s complete body of work. Edina’s only section game left is against Holy Angels, while the Blaze have to deal with Jefferson twice, plus a rematch with Prior Lake. They’ll have to sweep those to pull it off, but they certainly have a shot at the top. The week ahead is a big one for Jefferson, as they face both Burnsville and Prior Lake. Those South Suburban games should decide how this section ends up.
Key upcoming games: 1/7 Burnsville at Jefferson, 1/9 Jefferson at Prior Lake

3AA
11 St. Thomas Academy
14 Eastview
(18) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eagan
-The only thing established so far is Cretin edging ahead of Eagan in the pecking order; in fact, with a tie against East Ridge, the Wildcats will need some positive results in their two games against Eastview to avoid the 4-seed. Eastview doesn’t play Cretin or St. Thomas, so the top three could get complicated. In the immediate future, Eastview and Eagan meet for the first time this week, while Cretin visits a decent East Ridge squad; Eastview and Cretin both play Hastings the following week, while Cretin and St. Thomas play near the end of the month.
Key upcoming games: 1/9 Cretin at East Ridge, 1/11 Eagan at Eastview

4AA
4 Hill-Murray
(16) White Bear Lake
(24) Stillwater
-No changes here; the top spot revolves around that all-important White Bear-Hill game next week. Beyond the top two, Stillwater picked up a quality win over Minnetonka, though their rubber match with Roseville next week will be big for the 3-seed.
Key upcoming game: 1/16 White Bear Lake at Hill-Murray

5AA
6 Blaine
15 Maple Grove
(17) Centennial
-After Blaine’s big win over Maple Grove over the Holidays, the order here is pretty clear now that the big three have all played each other once. They all meet a second time in NWSC play, though, so there’s still some time for a shake-up.

6AA
3 Wayzata
10 Holy Family
7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
13 Eden Prairie
-Things are starting to take shape here, as Wayzata’s big week has them in command, and Holy Family—now finished against the other top teams—has proven it belongs near the top. Benilde might be able to edge past them with a strong finish against a tougher schedule, while Minnetonka will need a couple of big wins in Lake Conference play to escape the 5-seed. There are still too many games to be played here to start drawing up too many scenarios.
Key upcoming games: 1/11 Benilde at Minnetonka, 1/16 Wayzata at Eden Prairie, 1/18 Eden Prairie at Minnetonka

7AA
12 Grand Rapids
8 Elk River
9 Duluth East
(25) Forest Lake
-Grand Rapids can go into the driver’s seat with a win over East this week, while an East win would throw it wide open, as the top three would all be 1-1 against each other. That’s a setup that would likely favor East and the Elks, given Rapids’ weaker schedule, but if East or Elk River loses a few stray games down the stretch while Rapids finishes strong, that might not matter. Further down, Forest Lake is in solid control of the race for the 4-spot with wins over Andover and Cloquet, and Andover is pretty safe at #5. The Rangers still have a game with East left, and could conceivably grab the 3-seed if they beat East and the Hounds lose to Rapids.
Key upcoming game: 1/9 Duluth East at Grand Rapids

8AA
(19) Roseau
(23) Moorhead
Brainerd
Bemidji
-With comfortable wins over their two closest chasers, the Rams are now in command of the state’s northwest. All four play each other twice, though, so there will be a second round coming up. The first of the two Brainerd-Moorhead games is this week, and we’ll find out if Bemidji belongs in the conversation as well.
Key upcoming games: 1/9 Moorhead at Brainerd, 1/11 Roseau at Bemidji, 1/17 Roseau at Brainerd

We’ll see if next week brings a little more clarity. Stay warm, everyone.

[GoldenBear]

Happy New Year Karl. Very tough job ranking the top ten...but I think you nailed it pretty well. Your write-ups and justifications for where you are ranking each team makes sense. Yes, the Lakeville N and Hill Murray rankings must have drove you crazy, but overall great job. Thanks for the good Sunday morning read. GB

[Sats81]

Definitely don't think Burnsville should be as high as 2nd even with their hot streak and upending Edina. I think Wayzata or Edina could both be 1. We will see what hill is truly made of this week. Good job though Karl. You do a great job.

[SuperStar]

Yes, Thanks Karl for all your hard work going into these rankings each week. Pleasure to read.

[goldy313]

1AA, in 2012 the Justin Kloos led South team was far and away the best team, out scoring their section opponents 32-1. Is this North team up to that standard?

Last year South didn't "handle" Mayo, it was a 3-2 game with South hanging on for dear life at the end, probably the best section game we've had in a few years.

Intra city games have been pesky in 1AA in the past, be they Lakeville or Rochester, the better team comes out on the short end quite often.

Mayo and South still have to play each other I believe, Farmington should be the #2 seed based on their section record.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Definitely don't think Burnsville should be as high as 2nd even with their hot streak and upending Edina. I think Wayzata or Edina could both be 1. We will see what hill is truly made of this week. Good job though Karl. You do a great job.

You're nit picking....Burnsville is 1-1 against the Ho-Nets, and beat Wayzata. They are all top 5 teams.....does it really matter if someone is 2 or 3....

[Ogie]

A better read on Sunday morning cannot be found.

I can only imagine what a nightmare coming up with rankings might have been like, if White Bear had managed to win -or even make it very close- last night.

[Sats81]

Definitely don't think Burnsville should be as high as 2nd even with their hot streak and upending Edina. I think Wayzata or Edina could both be 1. We will see what hill is truly made of this week. Good job though Karl. You do a great job.

You're nit picking....Burnsville is 1-1 against the Ho-Nets, and beat Wayzata. They are all top 5 teams.....does it really matter if someone is 2 or 3....

Not trying to nit pick. Guess there is just a lot of parity in HS hockey this year and any one of 5-7 teams could win it all. Like my man keepyourheadup said, it will likely come down to who has hottest goaltending.