AA Rankings for 1/12/14

[karl(east)]

We had another eventful week in this wild season, but things are starting to take shape across the state now. Lake Conference play starts this week, though the conference isn’t quite as loaded as it has been the past few years, and the other big Metro conferences are beginning their second halves.

Records against other top teams are back again this week, and are the second record in the parenthesis.

1. Hill-Murray (11-2/7-2)
-The Pioneers had a huge week, edging Wayzata and then putting a beating on Edina to avenge their Schwan Cup loss. They’ve put a up a few crooked numbers against top teams this season, and when they’re on, it is tough for other offenses to keep pace. With wins over the three teams below them and both of their losses to teams in the top five, they are the clear #1 at this point. This week they face a different sort of test, as they look to lock up the top seed in 4AA against archrival White Bear Lake.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Thurs vs. White Bear Lake, Sat vs. Henry Sibley

2. Burnsville (10-4/8-4)
-Dispatched of Bloomington Jefferson in their sole game this past week to move to 9-1 in their last ten. Next up are the Lakevilles, with Saturday’s game against North giving us an unexpected clash of top five teams that have both been on fire lately. North beat the Blaze back in November.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South, Sat vs. #5 Lakeville North

3. Edina (12-4/12-4)
-The loss to Hill-Murray was Edina’s ugliest in years. One bad loss doesn’t wreck an otherwise fine start, but it does raise some doubts, particularly on defense and in goal. The Hornets are 1-2 in their last three, but they also go into a lull in January just about every year; is this just the grind of a brutal schedule starting to catch up, or are there deeper concerns? They’ve played three teams in the top six twice already, and have split with all of them; they’ll look to break that trend when they visit Wayzata this week.
This week: Sat at #4 Wayzata

4. Wayzata (11-4/8-4)
-The Trojans gave Hill a good battle, but came up short in the end; the recent string of low-scoring, tight games suggests they’re back to that rigid defense that won them 6AA last season. More goals are still in order, though. They head straight into the teeth of the Lake Conference this week, playing its other two top teams in succession.
This week: Thurs at #12 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #3 Edina

5. Lakeville North (12-3-1/7-3-1)
-The Panthers continued their steady march this past week with two-goal wins over two decent South Suburban teams, Eagan and Prior Lake. The wins were a bit more tame than their emphatic wins over Eden Prairie and Hill-Murray, but their unbeaten streak has now hit eleven, and a second win over Burnsville would put them in command of the South Suburban. There’s an argument for putting them higher based on recent results, but I want to see one more big win before I go all in on this team.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at #2 Burnsville

6. Elk River (9-3/5-3)
-A win over Blaine helps shore up the Elks’ credentials as a top team, and gives them a nice boost after they’d spent a few weeks treading water while playing a light schedule. It also puts them in the driver’s seat in the Northwest Suburban race. The week ahead is a busy one; the Centennial game is the most important in terms of the statewide picture, but they’ll take center stage on Saturday when they host Hockey Day in Minnesota.
This week: Tues vs. Centennial, Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Stillwater

7. Duluth East (11-3/6-3)
-The Hounds made a 7AA statement with a 5-0 win over Grand Rapids, and followed it up with a shutout win over Duluth Denfeld. The Rapids win is their only victory by a margin larger than 3, but they’ve been methodical and tight defensively. The Hounds also have a busy week, and two NWSC opponents could be relevant for 7AA seeding.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Blaine, Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat at Maple Grove

8. Blaine (9-3-1/5-3-1)
-A loss to Elk River sends the Bengals tumbling. For all of their wins and offensive firepower, they don’t have a single win against a team currently ranked in the top 15, and have only one win in their past four games. This week’s game at East will be big for their ranking, and is also their last serious challenge for a few weeks.
This week: Tues at #7 Duluth East, Sat vs. Champlin Park

9. Holy Family (8-3-1/2-3-1)
-The Fire are into the weaker part of their schedule right now, and sailed to two easy wins last week. This week should bring more of the same. This means they might get bumped around a little bit in the rankings depending on what other teams do, but for this week, at least, that’s a good thing, as they edge up ahead of the Benilde team they beat back in December. Benilde’s loss to Minnetonka also brought them a step closer to a 2-seed in 6AA.
This week: Tues at Orono, Thurs vs. Litchfield-Dassel-Cokato

10. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-4-2/5-4-2)
-A late comeback against St. Thomas Academy had Benilde looking strong, but they followed it up with a clunker against Minnetonka. Outdoor games have not treated the Red Knights kindly these past two years. They have an easy week ahead of them before gearing up for the final push of the regular season.
This week: Thurs vs. Blake, Sat vs. St. Francis

11. St. Thomas Academy (9-4-1/2-4)
-Another big game, another one-goal loss for the Cadets, as they let a third period lead slip away against Benilde. The top-ten talent is there, but the results so far are not, and Benilde’s loss later in the week doesn’t help their case, either. This week is an easy one, as they prepare for a couple of big tests next week.
This week: Sat vs. Simley

12. Eden Prairie (9-4-1/5-4-1)
-Even a game against Cloquet wasn’t all smooth sailing for the Eagles, but they got the needed win in the end. Teams that play good defense don’t seem to have much trouble holding down the Eden Prairie offense, so this week’s Wayzata game should be a good test in that regard. They can’t take a game against Minnetonka at Pagel for granted either, and that game could have big 6AA implications. It’s crunch time for the Eagles.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Wayzata, Sat at Minnetonka

13. Eastview (11-2/4-2)
-The Lightning lived dangerously last week, needing overtime to get by improving Rosemount and section rival Eagan. There’s a noticeable drop-off in talent from the teams in front of them here, but this squad has good balance, plays hard, and has a superb goalie. They worked that formula all the way to St. Paul last year, and it has them off to a hot start this year. Prior Lake is the biggest contest of a three-game week.
This week: Tues at Prior Lake, Thurs at Hastings, Fri vs. Rochester John Marshall

14. Cretin-Derham Hall (11-2-1/2-2)
-The Raiders shut down White Bear Lake at TCF Bank Stadium, taking control of the Suburban East race and climbing into the top 15 for the first time this season. Their only quality win outside of the conference is a narrow one over Eagan, but they’ve been winning with authority in the SEC, and will look to continue that trend over the next two weeks. Forest Lake is responsible for the tie on their record, so that one could be a good test.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Sat at Hastings

15. Grand Rapids (11-4/3-3-1)
-An ugly loss to Duluth East leaves the Thunderhawks searching for answers, and may prove costly in 7AA seeding. They’re better than they looked in that game, but they’ve skated a fine line in many of their games against big teams, and this one showed what can happen when they lose that edge. This week, they’re on the road against a couple of rivals whom they should handle.
This week: Tues at Cloquet, Thurs at Hibbing

The Next Ten

Maple Grove (8-6-1/3-6-1)
-A stumble against Andover drops the Crimson from the top 15, but on the whole, they’ve still acquitted themselves very well against most top teams. That’s enough to help them rise above the rest of this muddle in the 16-25 part of the rankings. Duluth East looms this week.

Moorhead (7-7/2-7)
-The Spuds had a strong week, beating Brainerd to strengthen their standing in 8AA and then knocking off Breck in overtime. They have seven losses, but not one of them is to a bad team; they beat Minnetonka, and they seem to be improving. The week ahead includes two games against mid-tier section teams, Bemidji and St. Cloud Tech, and a tough one against Warroad.

Minnetonka (7-7/3-6)
-The Skippers’ record may not be pretty, but they reminded everyone that they aren’t going away with a 4-1 win over Benilde this past week. Given the amount of turnover they had after last season, there were bound to be some growing pains, and they may have turned a corner now. They have some quality wins, and it wouldn’t be too big of a surprise to see them pick up a couple of upsets in Lake Conference play. They host Hopkins and Eden Prairie this week.

Roseau (10-4/1-3)
-Lost to Warroad, but a rivalry loss to a top-flight Class A team doesn’t really hurt their standing, and they bounced back by whipping Bemidji. The Rams are tough to measure against other teams in this part of the rankings, and there’s a case for putting them higher given Moorhead and Warroad’s recent success. They sit comfortably atop 8AA for now; from a statewide perspective, a victory over East Grand Forks this week would give them a much-needed quality win.

Eagan (9-6-1/3-5)
-The Wildcats fought tough against Lakeville North and Eastview, but came up short in both games. They’re a pesky team, but the offensive output still hasn’t been all that consistent. The next two weeks are fairly easy for them, with Saturday’s game against Jefferson being the toughest of the four.

Prior Lake (7-6-1/2-5-1)
-Signs of improvement this past week for the Lakers, as they cruised past Bloomington Jefferson in a big 2AA game and gave Lakeville North a good fight. They’ll face a challenge against Eastview this week.

White Bear Lake (10-3-1/1-2)
-It was not a good week for the Bears, as they needed overtime to beat Roseville and struggled to muster much against Cretin. As they head into their biggest game of the year, the whole has yet to equal the sum of the parts. We’ll see what Hill-Murray brings out of them.

Centennial (8-6/3-6)
-After a strong start, the Cougars have dropped their past three games against top 25 teams; while they’ve all been tight contests, they aren’t quite going in the right direction against quality opponents. Elk River is up next this week.

Andover (7-7/2-5)
-The Huskies made some noise this past week, beating both Centennial and Maple Grove. They have a few too many losses to go any higher quite yet, but they’re on the watch list now, and an easy schedule for the rest of the month should allow them to beef up that record.

Bloomington Jefferson (7-7-1/2-7-1)
-Snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over Lakeville South at TCF Bank Stadium. They have a tie with Benilde and all of their losses are to good teams, but they didn’t manage to score more than one goal in a game during that losing streak. Rosemount and Eagan are up this week.

[elliott70]

Sections next week?

[karl(east)]

Sections next week?

Yep, I do them every other week. If I do them every week it gets a little too repetitive.

[goldy313]

If Benilde, Duluth East, or Eden Prairie had done what Lakeville North has done the past few weeks they'd be #1 but since North is a 1AA team they're not even top 4. That's pretty sad, they haven't lost since Dec 7th and have beaten many of the teams above them yet you still won't give them the benefit of the doubt.

[east hockey]

If Benilde, Duluth East, or Eden Prairie had done what Lakeville North has done the past few weeks they'd be #1 but since North is a 1AA team they're not even top 4. That's pretty sad, they haven't lost since Dec 7th and have beaten many of the teams above them yet you still won't give them the benefit of the doubt.

Where do you think they should be placed?

Lee

[observer]

starting to take shame

??

[hockey9011]

starting to take shame

??

I think he meant starting to take shape*

[goldy313]

2 or 3, ahead of Burnsville and Wayzata and based on their result with Hill Murray maybe in front of them as we'll.

My point was more that because of who they are and that they're a 1AA team Karl needs to see more out of them, since beating Hill and Burnsville isn't enough for a 1AA team, though I belive if Duluth East, Eden Prairie, or another big name ran off the streak North has against the teams North has those big names would be higher than 5 and given more than what Karl is giving them.

Maybe North never wins another game, then they should drop but to hold them down based on they might lose? That seems strange.

[east hockey]

2 or 3, ahead of Burnsville and Wayzata and based on their result with Hill Murray maybe in front of them as we'll.

My point was more that because of who they are and that they're a 1AA team Karl needs to see more out of them, since beating Hill and Burnsville isn't enough for a 1AA team, though I belive if Duluth East, Eden Prairie, or another big name ran off the streak North has against the teams North has those big names would be higher than 5 and given more than what Karl is giving them.

Maybe North never wins another game, then they should drop but to hold them down based on they might lose? That seems strange.

Karl has them 5th, PageStat has them 4th. Since PageStat doesn't consider or care what section a team plays in, I'd say Karl's pick of 5th is pretty accurate.

But let's suppose for a minute Karl suffers from "Anti 1AA Bias" (I don't believe he does). Isn't it warranted? This section is 3-13 in championship round games since 2000. The Lakeville schools are 1-9 during that time, 5-16 overall. Have they performed better than many expected? Even at that low winning percentage, yes. Some people think they're an automatic 0-2 each year at state, sort of how people see 3A. So in that sense, I guess they've exceeded expectations. For what it's worth.

So, I have two questions, the first for everyone else, the second for you, Goldy:

1. If North was in a different section, would they be ranked higher by human pollsters?

2. If North was in a different section, would you care they were "only" ranked 5th?

Lee

[karl(east)]

2 or 3, ahead of Burnsville and Wayzata and based on their result with Hill Murray maybe in front of them as we'll.

My point was more that because of who they are and that they're a 1AA team Karl needs to see more out of them, since beating Hill and Burnsville isn't enough for a 1AA team, though I belive if Duluth East, Eden Prairie, or another big name ran off the streak North has against the teams North has those big names would be higher than 5 and given more than what Karl is giving them.

Maybe North never wins another game, then they should drop but to hold them down based on they might lose? That seems strange.

I don't think any bias I might have against North has anything to do with their section. Any lack of benefit of the doubt has more to do with them being a total surprise. I mean, did anyone see this coming? Anyone at all? I would be just as skeptical if, say, Cretin or Bloomington Jefferson or Brainerd had gone on this sort of run. (Those are the teams that were around them in the preseason rankings, which were based on a pretty dispassionate take based on returning players and youth rankings and so on. I don't think that method has ever discriminated against 1AA; I think I was pretty accurate with the one other serious contender that section has put out since I started doing this, 2012 Lakeville South.)

They are also one of the few teams on this list I haven't seen play yet. Not sure if that helps them or hurts them, but for now, I've been forced to rely on secondhand accounts.

Those things may be acting on a subconscious level; I don't know. The conscious reason, however, is the quality of their losses. They lost to STA (11), Eastview (13), and Minnetonka (18). Compare that to the 2-4 teams' lossses:

Burnsville: Hill (1), Edina (3), North (5), Benilde (10)
Edina: Hill (1), Burnsville (2), Elk River (6), Eagan (20)
Wayzata: Hill (1), Burnsville (2), Edina (3), Duluth East (7)

The wins over Hill and EP are great, and the tie with Blaine certainly doesn't hurt (though it doesn't help either now that they're ranked ahead of the Bengals). But North has, to date, been a bit more likely to lose to good-but-not-great teams. That raises some concern. And yes, they've been incredibly hot lately, but the same can be said of Burnsville, and they can't match Edina's SOS.

Also, fixed the typo in the opening paragraph.

[goldy313]

First to Karl, someone must have seen it coming, Hill Murray wouldn't have scheduled them otherwise. The South Suburban is a tough conference and the team in front is discounted, even behind a team they beat 5-2. I do believe that you wouldn't be, at least as skeptical if it were say Jefferson putting up these wins or Roseau or Grand Rapids as they have history. That's the bias, name recognition and association. Again my issue isn't so much you ranked them #5, it's your ranking, it's the comments about them and needing to see more. You wouldn't say that about a number if teams had they done the same.

Lee, you use past precedent but in high school teams turn over every year or two. Go back 3 years and 1AA is 4-4, better than a few others including 5AA, 8AA, 3AA, and equal to 2AA Edina's record in that span. That's more relevant than 2002. To answer your questions, yes I think North would be higher in the human polls if they were in another section or named Benilde, Jefferson, or some other heavy hitter. I think if you put North's schedule up but took their name off of it you have a top 2 team. To the second, no I wouldn't care as much heck I don't complain Blaine or Maple Grove are over rated as those teams haven't had a state tournament win this decade. Pagestat has North .01 behind Hill, a virtual tie for 3rd, your'e system is slow to punish and slow to reward so to be a .01 out of third coming from where North started is a very nice leap and shows adaptation where I think human polls show a bias and will look to keep them down while looking to boost others up.

There aren't many section 1 backers around here, usually I'm it. When we have good teams were discounted and even with North having a great year thus far (New Prague and Mankato West in 1A) I don't believe that 1AA or 1A will draw a top 4 seed no matter how the year ends. That's just the way it is.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

I'll cop to an anti-1AA bias. Thought it's weakening. Maybe I'm from the Show Me State.

[almostashappy]

First to Karl, someone must have seen it coming, Hill Murray wouldn't have scheduled them otherwise. The South Suburban is a tough conference and the team in front is discounted, even behind a team they beat 5-2. I do believe that you wouldn't be, at least as skeptical if it were say Jefferson putting up these wins or Roseau or Grand Rapids as they have history. That's the bias, name recognition and association. Again my issue isn't so much you ranked them #5, it's your ranking, it's the comments about them and needing to see more. You wouldn't say that about a number if teams had they done the same.

Lee, you use past precedent but in high school teams turn over every year or two. Go back 3 years and 1AA is 4-4, better than a few others including 5AA, 8AA, 3AA, and equal to 2AA Edina's record in that span. That's more relevant than 2002. To answer your questions, yes I think North would be higher in the human polls if they were in another section or named Benilde, Jefferson, or some other heavy hitter. I think if you put North's schedule up but took their name off of it you have a top 2 team. To the second, no I wouldn't care as much heck I don't complain Blaine or Maple Grove are over rated as those teams haven't had a state tournament win this decade. Pagestat has North .01 behind Hill, a virtual tie for 3rd, your'e system is slow to punish and slow to reward so to be a .01 out of third coming from where North started is a very nice leap and shows adaptation where I think human polls show a bias and will look to keep them down while looking to boost others up.

There aren't many section 1 backers around here, usually I'm it. When we have good teams were discounted and even with North having a great year thus far (New Prague and Mankato West in 1A) I don't believe that 1AA or 1A will draw a top 4 seed no matter how the year ends. That's just the way it is.

1. Hill-Murray had North on the schedule this year because it was the second leg of a home-and-home series that started last year when HM blanked the Panthers 7-0 at Aldrich. Had nothing to do with their forecasting LN being good this year (unless you want to backdate that prescience by another 12 months).

2. Player rosters may turn over every 2 or 3 years, but most coaching staffs don't. Your mileage may vary, of course.

3. New year, old whine. Last year it was griping because 1AA was "discounted" as an easy section to advance out of. This year, it's North specifically that is discounted by the cognoscenti. Have to ask...is somebody's job dependent on karl's rankings? Is the gate at Ames taking a hit because the team is being "discounted"? Think that kids would be more likely to open enroll/transfer to LN if the team was shown proper respect in mid-season polls? If it matters that much, do what karl does week in/week out, and put the Panthers wherever you think they deserve to be. And hold in all of that frustration for the post-season, when you'll have the opportunity to say "I told you so" if the Panthers end up where you think they deserve to be ranked now.

[gitter]

I do believe that you wouldn't be, at least as skeptical if it were say Jefferson putting up these wins or Roseau or Grand Rapids as they have history. That's the bias, name recognition and association. Again my issue isn't so much you ranked them #5, it's your ranking, it's the comments about them and needing to see more. You wouldn't say that about a number if teams had they done the same.

Let's not get carried away here. A Top 5 ranking is VERY good. Should it really matter if they are 1, 3 or 5? Any of these teams can beat each other on a given night, and that has been proven throughout this season. So what does it really matter when those are the facts right now?

Here's what I HOPE to see. I hope to see Lakeville North in March playing on Friday night in the semifinals. It would be great for the Lakevilles and for Section 1AA. If they are as good as you seem to believe, they should have a very good chance of doing this. Time will tell.

[Tenoverpar]

Thank you Karl for another great write up.

I'm not certain why Goldy is crying wolf on this...you have steadily moved L-North up in the rankings weekly as they have been on this run. When you come out of the gate 3-3..you don't exactly start at the top. North has as good a chance as anyone to win the whole thing and I'd rather be #1 in the final rankings than on January 12th...

Here's the reality...the top 13 in Karls rankings can and will beat any of the other top 13 on any given day..as these teams play there is parity amongst them. Once you get past that..the next batch down to the 20's shouldn't win against the top 13 but always have a chance and sometimes do.. penalties, untimely turnovers, a hot goalie..anything is possible

I'm just wondering how good Burnsville would have been with Sheehy...

[Sats81]

Thank you Karl for another great write up.

I'm not certain why Goldy is crying wolf on this...you have steadily moved L-North up in the rankings weekly as they have been on this run. When you come out of the gate 3-3..you don't exactly start at the top. North has as good a chance as anyone to win the whole thing and I'd rather be #1 in the final rankings than on January 12th...

Here's the reality...the top 13 in Karls rankings can and will beat any of the other top 13 on any given day..as these teams play there is parity amongst them. Once you get past that..the next batch down to the 20's shouldn't win against the top 13 but always have a chance and sometimes do.. penalties, untimely turnovers, a hot goalie..anything is possible

I'm just wondering how good Burnsville would have been with Sheehy...

How about with Kivihalme too?

[karl(east)]

First to Karl, someone must have seen it coming, Hill Murray wouldn't have scheduled them otherwise. The South Suburban is a tough conference and the team in front is discounted, even behind a team they beat 5-2. I do believe that you wouldn't be, at least as skeptical if it were say Jefferson putting up these wins or Roseau or Grand Rapids as they have history. That's the bias, name recognition and association. Again my issue isn't so much you ranked them #5, it's your ranking, it's the comments about them and needing to see more. You wouldn't say that about a number if teams had they done the same.

This seems like an awful lot of presumptive psychoanalysis, and I don't have the time to go back and drum up old rankings, but I think you'll find similar suspicion of past teams that have had middling starts to their years before going on runs at midseason. I might have a bias to short-term history, as that can be an indicator of good coaching or momentum or something, but not "tradition" in the Rapids/Roseau/Jefferson sense. In fact, I recall back in 09 when I started doing these, I was pretty down on a Jefferson team that went undefeated for much of the season. I just didn't think they were that good. In the end, they weren't. Likewise, you'll see that I'm in no rush to put Roseau very high this year, even though the computerized rankings seem to think much better of them than I do.

As almostashappy said, the scheduling argument is pretty flimsy. I also know that East, for one, has always scheduled a handful of games against 1AA teams (as they have again this season) so as to get a preview of possible State Tourney opponents, whatever their quality relative to the rest of the state.