AA Rankings for 1/26/14

[karl(east)]

With three weeks left in the regular season, the field is as wide open as ever. Saying one team should be ahead of another based on a head-to-head result almost never works; so many teams are capable of beating each other on any given night that we have to rely on as many games as possible to make sense of it all. At this point in the season, momentum is also key. Here’s my best effort:

1. Lakeville North (16-3-1)
-With their unbeaten streak now at 15, the Panthers are likely the first 1AA team to be ranked #1 in the two-class era. They beat an Eastview team that had previously beaten them this past week, which is an obvious sign of improvement, and they held off increasingly pesky Apple Valley, too. They face a decent Jefferson team and their crosstown rival this week; while they look good in both on paper, we’ll see how they handle the new target on their backs.
This week: Tues vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Lakeville South

2. Hill-Murray (15-3)
-The Pioneers tumble from the top after a loss to St. Thomas. There are a few red flags here; the defense continues to shed goals at a fairly high rate for such a highly-ranked team, and they are noticeably lower in the computerized rankings, perhaps on account of some of their relatively close games with mediocre conference opponents. Still, the overall résumé is as good as anyone’s in the state, and even in their losses they tend to be controlling the flow of play. This week is not a difficult one.
This week: Thurs at South St. Paul, Sat vs. North St. Paul

3. Edina (14-4-1)
-The Hornets held serve by beating the bottom two teams in the Lake Conference, Minnetonka and Hopkins. They now play the second of three games with Eden Prairie.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. Holy Angels

4. Wayzata (14-4-1)
-Just how good is the Trojan defense? They have shutouts in three of their last four, all against quality teams, the most impressive being a 5-0 beating of Minnetonka. This team seems to be hitting its stride at the right time, and a second win over Eden Prairie should end any lingering doubt over who the top seed should be in 6AA.
This week: Thurs at Hopkins, Sat vs. #10 Eden Prairie

5. Burnsville (13-5-1)
-It wasn’t a stellar week for the Blaze, as they tied Eden Prairie and needed overtime to get past Eastview, but their difficult schedule and overall body of work is just enough to keep them in the top five. They don’t play any more top 15 teams during the regular season, so they still have some chance at the top seed in 2AA if Edina stumbles, but their opportunities are dwindling.
This week: Tues vs. Eagan, Sat at Apple Valley

6. Elk River (13-3)
-The Elks were left with just one game due to weather this past week, but the biggest news here was off the ice, as they must adjust to life without Andrew Zerban. And after a fairly easy start to the month, the Elks will finally face some big tests this week; they play quality teams in Benilde and Maple Grove, and an improving Andover team gave them a one-goal game back in December. Time to see how they respond to some adversity.
This week: Tues vs. #11 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. #12 Maple Grove, Sat at Andover

7. Blaine (13-3-1)
-Picked up another decent win by beating Minnetonka, though we’ll have to wait until early February before this team gets a couple more games against top ten squads to show their worth. A win over Centennial this week would just about lock up the top seed in 5AA.
This week: Mon at Armstrong, Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at Centennial

8. St. Thomas Academy (11-5-1)
-The Cadets had an up-and-down week, knocking off Hill before succumbing to Breck for a second time this season. I’ve decided to move them up a little because they have clearly shown they can skate with anyone in the state, and their downfall in the Breck game—four shorthanded goals—is correctible, and not likely to be repeated. Still, Breck is not a dominant team, and if rankings are going to be of any use when it comes to State seeding, they need to reflect those losses; that’s why the Cadets stay back behind many of the other title contenders for now. Their relatively easy schedule down the stretch will give them a chance to move up as other teams beat up on one another. A win over rival Cretin this week should lock up the top spot in 3AA.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Henry Sibley, Sat vs. Tartan

9. Duluth East (13-4-1)
-Rolled past Forest Lake in their lone game this past week, and losses around them nudge the Hounds up a bit. Only Wayzata has allowed fewer goals than East in Class AA. They’re comfortable favorites in both of their games this week, but both teams have some shot at an upset.
This week: Tues at Minnetonka, Thurs vs. Lakeville South

10. Eden Prairie (12-5-2)
-The Eagles made some noise this past week, edging Benilde in overtime and tying a top 5 Burnsville team. The talent is here to make a run, and we should learn pretty quickly just how complete this apparent improvement is. The week ahead is Lake Conference brutality at its finest, as they play two top 5 teams on the road.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat at #4 Wayzata

11. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-6-2)
-Fell in overtime to Eden Prairie, and didn’t manage to give Shattuck much of a game, either. They bled 14 goals across the two games, suggesting that the defensive improvement noted earlier in the season was not lasting. While they still have a good offense, they don’t have quite the firepower they had the past two years, when they could get away with games like these. Only one game this week, but it’s another tough one against Elk River.
This week: Tues at #6 Elk River

12. Maple Grove (10-6-2)
-The Crimson won their lone game in a weather-shortened week. Their next two will be big ones; a win over Centennial assures a top-2 seed in 5AA, and the Elk River game is a chance to boost their standing in the statewide picture.
This week: Tues at Centennial, Thurs at #6 Elk River, Sat vs. Armstrong

13. Eastview (14-5)
-The Lightning lost twice this past week, but both were to top five teams, and taking Burnsville to overtime was a big improvement over a 6-1 December loss. They continue to do a good job of hanging around against top teams, and when Driscoll is on, they’re a very tough out. While they’re ranked ahead of everyone left on their schedule, they did lose to Jefferson the first time around, so that game could be a good measuring stick.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

14. Holy Family (12-4-1)
-A shutout loss to Roseau ends the Fire’s winning streak, and while they were shorthanded due to injuries, it does reveal some lack of depth. It’s their first loss to anyone outside the top 15, so it doesn’t hurt too much, though that Benilde quality win is starting to look pretty lonely. They’re back to Wright County Conference play this week, which should mean two more wins.
This week: Tues vs. Mound-Westonka, Sat at Hutchinson

15. White Bear Lake (12-5-1)
-The Bears had a great weekend up north, knocking off Hermantown and Grand Rapids by twin 4-1 scores. They’ve been inconsistent, but they’ve been trending in the right direction more often than not lately, and when they’re on, they can play with anyone in the state. Because of that, I’ll give them some benefit of the doubt and throw them to the front of this group of bubble teams. They have nothing but conference games left, and need to take care of business there.
This week: Thurs vs. Stillwater, Sat at Park

And Beyond

Grand Rapids (14-5)
-The Thunderhawks lost to White Bear and didn’t look particularly good doing it. While they’re having no trouble owning the weaker teams they’ve played, they’ve been handled with ease in their last two games against quality AA teams, which is not a good sign as they head down the stretch. Their game with Moorhead this week is their last against a AA opponent, and gives them a chance to settle things down somewhat.

Centennial (10-7)
-Weather delayed the Cougars’ game with Maple Grove for a few days; that sets up a huge week, as they play the two teams ahead of them in 5AA. A higher seed is within reach if they take care of business.

Eagan (12-7-1)
-The Wildcats had a decent week, beating Lakeville South and Rosemount comfortably. The week ahead offers two teams they lost to during the first round of SSC play, Burnsville and Prior Lake; they were competitive in both, so we’ll see if they can take the next step and pick up a win or two.

Roseau (13-5-1)
-A win over Holy Family boosts the Rams’ ranking, and while the Moorhead tie means they won’t have an easy time getting out of 8AA, it should be enough to lock up the top seed. They have their rematch with rival Warroad this week, plus a home game against Bemidji; a win over the Warriors would help boost their standing. I’m waiting for one more good win to push them toward the top 15; the 8A frontrunners are good, but they’re not out-of-this-world good.

Andover (11-7)
-Drew some attention with a 7-0 win over Cloquet, and continue to work their way up the rankings. Still, they haven’t played anyone near the caliber of Elk River on this recent run, so we’ll see how they handle the Elks this week. They have some big games left, and with a strong finish, they could swipe the 3-seed in 7AA away from Grand Rapids.

Cretin-Derham Hall (12-4-1)
-The Raiders are stumbling some down the stretch, with losses in two of their last four; this isn’t good for a team that had been staking its high ranking on dominance in the Suburban East Conference. They can turn it around in a hurry if they can knock off St. Thomas.

Moorhead (9-9-1)
-A tie with Roseau was some improvement over the December meeting, and considering East Grand Forks’ success this season, that loss doesn’t hurt much. They move down through no real fault of their own, but someone has to make way as other teams move up, and nine losses is a lot, even against a good schedule.

Minnetonka (7-12)
-The Skippers have now lost five straight, but four of those have been against top ten teams, and there are just enough quality results on their record to keep them from falling any further. The tough string continues this week, as they face Duluth East and a Hopkins team that beat them two weeks ago.

Bloomington Jefferson (9-8-1)
-Just when it seemed like the Jaguars were turning a corner with wins over Eagan and Prior Lake, they went and lost to crosstown rival Kennedy for the first time in 14 years. It’s not a terrible loss considering the rivalry factor and Kennedy’s improvement this year, but it does erase some momentum and complicate what might have been an easy path to the 3-seed in 2AA. The week ahead is a tough one, with Lakeville North and Eastview on tap.

Prior Lake (8-10-1)
-The Lakers have hit the skids, and could easily have fallen out of the top 25. A narrow loss to Wayzata is excusable; the Apple Valley and Lakeville South losses, on the other hand, might make it a struggle simply to get to a .500 record. They’re still dangerous when they’re on, but they need to right the ship in a hurry.

That's it for now. We'll do sections again next week.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Good read Karl! Looking forward to next week with the section breakdown.

[QuietObserver]

Of note - the two goals Kennedy scored are goals that never would have went in on Martens who was unable to play on Saturday due to injury.

[HShockeywatcher]

Good job as always.

8. St. Thomas Academy (11-5-1)
-The Cadets had an up-and-down week, knocking off Hill before succumbing to Breck for a second time this season. I’ve decided to move them up a little because they have clearly shown they can skate with anyone in the state, and their downfall in the Breck game—four shorthanded goals—is correctible, and not likely to be repeated. Still, Breck is not a dominant team, and if rankings are going to be of any use when it comes to State seeding, they need to reflect those losses; that’s why the Cadets stay back behind many of the other title contenders for now. Their relatively easy schedule down the stretch will give them a chance to move up as other teams beat up on one another. A win over rival Cretin this week should lock up the top spot in 3AA.
This week: Tues at Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Henry Sibley, Sat vs. Tartan

The Breck losses are unfortunate, but it's interesting to note that the Cadets are the only team in the state to beat both your #1 and #2 team.
A solid argument could be made to be seeded higher than Blaine, but it's really a wash, and all of Elk River's losses came in a span of 3 days so I have no qualms about where they're ranked.
With games remaining against both Cretin and Holy Family, they have a shot on going on a run now that no other team will likely do.
Without the Breck losses, they'd probably be higher, but oh well.

I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if both Hill and Lakeville North make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do.

[karl(east)]

The Breck losses are unfortunate, but it's interesting to note that the Cadets are the only team in the state to beat both your #1 and #2 team.
A solid argument could be made to be seeded higher than Blaine, but it's really a wash, and all of Elk River's losses came in a span of 3 days so I have no qualms about where they're ranked.
With games remaining against both Cretin and Holy Family, they have a shot on going on a run now that no other team will likely do.
Without the Breck losses, they'd probably be higher, but oh well.

I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if both Hill and Lakeville North make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do.

Not a bad point, but I would point out that the amount of parity between the top 8 or so means there's relatively little difference between a win over #1 and a win over #7. The mystique that comes with beating the top two just isn't there. If STA takes care of business they'll certainly pass the loser of ER-Blaine, maybe more if others lose. The Blaine-Hill game will also give us another measuring tool.

I also don't think head-to-head results among the State Tourney entrants have ever really mattered for seeding, nor do I think they should. That leaves too much off to chance results and upsets in sections. Go with the rankings based on 28 games played, without regard for head-to-head.

Also, thanks for the note on Martens. That explains things some, though the Jefferson offense should be able to muster more than one goal against Kennedy, too.

[HShockeywatcher]

Not a bad point, but I would point out that the amount of parity between the top 8 or so means there's relatively little difference between a win over #1 and a win over #7. The mystique that comes with beating the top two just isn't there. If STA takes care of business they'll certainly pass the loser of ER-Blaine, maybe more if others lose. The Blaine-Hill game will also give us another measuring tool.

I'm not disagreeing with how you have things in the least. I think there'd be a solid case for one higher, I think going to OT and losing 6-3 with one good Class A team is better than the 3-1 domination EGF put on Blaine that I'm still convinced should've been a shut out, but that's neither here nor there. I also think Elk River has put together a good season...while it could be argued on the reverse that they have two quality wins, one of which is over Edina, a team they also lost to and the other Blaine and they lost to both your 10 and 16 teams.
While I disagree with your comment about mystique, I don't think it warrants them being ahead of Burnsville.

I also don't think head-to-head results among the State Tourney entrants have ever really mattered for seeding, nor do I think they should. That leaves too much off to chance results and upsets in sections. Go with the rankings based on 28 games played, without regard for head-to-head.

So, if there is so much parity among the top teams, what else are you going to use? With North, Hill, Burnsville/Edina, STA, Blaine and Wayzata all having really good seasons and all having losses to lower teams, how do you not use head to head results to sort things out? Of the 6 I mentioned, one doesn't get ranked...

Of course, since the coaches vote, St Thomas probably won't be ranked anyway

[karl(east)]

So, if there is so much parity among the top teams, what else are you going to use? With North, Hill, Burnsville/Edina, STA, Blaine and Wayzata all having really good seasons and all having losses to lower teams, how do you not use head to head results to sort things out? Of the 6 I mentioned, one doesn't get ranked...

Of course, since the coaches vote, St Thomas probably won't be ranked anyway

What else would you use? The rankings as they are, which do take head-to-head results into account when teams are really close, but still rely on the whole body of work above all else. The Breck losses, the Benilde loss, and the AHA tie don't just disappear because of who else makes the Tourney. Those two wins are great, but STA only has one other win against a team even mentioned in the rankings, Minnetonka. They're the only team in the top ten with a losing record against other ranked teams.

STA is plenty good enough to win the whole thing, but they just haven't played well enough night in and night out to grab a high seed at the moment. I'd buy the Blaine argument, but anything more would be a stretch.

Also, if we're going to get into conspiracy theories, I'd think the coaches of the top three teams would have every incentive to give STA a 4/5 seed if they really want to avoid them. They wouldn't want to chance a random draw meeting with STA in the first round, would they?

[almostashappy]

I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if both Hill and Lakeville North make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do.

Dear HSHW,

Thanks ever so much for the presumptive and arrogant bulletin board material.

Sincerly,

The Rest of Section 3AA

[HShockeywatcher]

So, if there is so much parity among the top teams, what else are you going to use? With North, Hill, Burnsville/Edina, STA, Blaine and Wayzata all having really good seasons and all having losses to lower teams, how do you not use head to head results to sort things out? Of the 6 I mentioned, one doesn't get ranked...

Of course, since the coaches vote, St Thomas probably won't be ranked anyway

What else would you use? The rankings as they are, which do take head-to-head results into account when teams are really close, but still rely on the whole body of work above all else.

STA is plenty good enough to win the whole thing, but they just haven't played well enough night in and night out to grab a high seed at the moment. I'd buy the Blaine argument, but anything more would be a stretch.

Also, if we're going to get into conspiracy theories, I'd think the coaches of the top three teams would have every incentive to give STA a 4/5 seed if they really want to avoid them. They wouldn't want to chance a random draw meeting with STA in the first round, would they?

I guess I'm not sure if you're arguing with me or trying to put words in my mouth and arguing with those, or what?

My comments and question weren't about one team; with regards to STA I have more than once specifically agreed with where you have them ranked. I'm not saying any losses disappear, simply that all of the top 6 teams likely the make state have had good seasons and all have had bad losses (well, aside from Hill really). I also think you and I disagree on the significance of when games were played in a season.

I don't have any conclusions I have drawn about how seeding should go. I am simply making observations and asking questions. Like in Class A, you could make arguments for almost any order and it wouldn't be terrible. I could see almost any of those 6 not getting seeded and not being shocked depending on the order of the others.

Please don't tell me you took a sarcastic comment seriously...

The Breck losses, the Benilde loss, and the AHA tie don't just disappear because of who else makes the Tourney. Those two wins are great, but STA only has one other win against a team even mentioned in the rankings, Minnetonka. They're the only team in the top ten with a losing record against other ranked teams.

While I don't really care to nit pick other comments, I'm curious how you figure they have a losing record against top teams ...
STA is 4-3 against teams on your list. If you add in the top Class A teams, they then become 6-5.

I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if both Hill and Lakeville North make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do.

Dear HSHW,

Thanks ever so much for the presumptive and arrogant bulletin board material.

Assuming I was in any way being arrogant, I'd say "pot, meet kettle," but I really don't think throwing the idea out there that a [likely] top seed makes it to state is arrogant. I also do genuinely think it'll be interesting.

[nahc]

Karl: Great job as usual!!!! You hit the nail right on the head concerning how open a field there is for the upcoming Sections and State tourney. Should be a great run for a lot of these teams!!!

[almostashappy]

I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if both Hill and Lakeville North make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do.

Dear HSHW,

Thanks ever so much for the presumptive and arrogant bulletin board material.

Assuming I was in any way being arrogant, I'd say "pot, meet kettle," but I really don't think throwing the idea out there that a [likely] top seed makes it to state is arrogant. I also do genuinely think it'll be interesting.

1. You could have easily said, "I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if STA, Hill and Lakeville North all make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do." But instead you start with the base assumption that the Cadets will win their section. That's presumptive.

2. I'd enjoy hearing your examples of my pot-colored arrogance.

3. I seem to recall karl saying in last week's rankings that 3AA was one of the deeper sections out there this year. That makes starting with an unqualified assumption that the Cadets will represent 3AA even more tenuous. But go ahead...tell us all why STA is so-o-o-o-o much better than Eastview/Eagan/CDH...there's plenty of room on those team's bulletin boards for your pearls of wisdom.

[HShockeywatcher]

1. You could have easily said, "I think it'll be interesting to see how they are seeded at state if STA, Hill and Lakeville North all make it and neither Benilde or Burnsville do." But instead you start with the base assumption that the Cadets will win their section. That's presumptive.

3. I seem to recall karl saying in last week's rankings that 3AA was one of the deeper sections out there this year. That makes starting with an unqualified assumption that the Cadets will represent 3AA even more tenuous. But go ahead...tell us all why STA is so-o-o-o-o much better than Eastview/Eagan/CDH...there's plenty of room on those team's bulletin boards for your pearls of wisdom.

You may have been unaware, but only the teams that make it to state get seeded at state.
I'm also curious why it wasn't arrogant of me, in your opinion, to assume that any of the other teams I mentioned would be at state?
Hill went to OT with WBL; it's pretty presumptive of me to assume they'll be at state, isn't it?

I don't have any 3AA pearls of anything to bestow on anyone. I have seen one of the section's teams play this year, although I'm looking forward to Tuesday's game, the semifinals and finals. If common opponent results tell us anything, I think there will be 3 very good games in sections this year.

Eastview beat Eagan in OT. Cretin beat Eagan by 1.
STA beat North, EV beat and lost to North, Eagan lost to North and play them again.
STA and EV both lost to Burnsville by 1 and Eagan by 2.
STA beat Prior Lake and both EV and Eagan lost to them.
If STA wins tomorrow, they should be 1 and the margin may factor in to who of EV or CDH gets the 2 seed. If CDH wins tomorrow, they should be #1, probably dropping STA to 3 or 4. Lots can still happen in this section.

It would be nice if EV would play STA and CDH next year and if Eagan and STA could get a game.

[karl(east)]

I guess I'm not sure if you're arguing with me or trying to put words in my mouth and arguing with those, or what?

My comments and question weren't about one team; with regards to STA I have more than once specifically agreed with where you have them ranked. I'm not saying any losses disappear, simply that all of the top 6 teams likely the make state have had good seasons and all have had bad losses (well, aside from Hill really). I also think you and I disagree on the significance of when games were played in a season.

I don't have any conclusions I have drawn about how seeding should go. I am simply making observations and asking questions. Like in Class A, you could make arguments for almost any order and it wouldn't be terrible. I could see almost any of those 6 not getting seeded and not being shocked depending on the order of the others.

Please don't tell me you took a sarcastic comment seriously...

You asked a question and I gave an answer, and used the team we were already talking about as an example. Otherwise, I think we're mostly in violent agreement.

Yeah, I took your sarcasm seriously. I say this not as a criticism, but...I'm not sure you're aware of the tone your words often seem to have when you write about STA on here. Maybe others will disagree, but it just comes across as very, very earnest and defensive. Maybe this is a legacy of your days of doing Class A rankings when a lot of people tried to criticize you for perceived bias towards STA. (I add here that I agreed with your ranking of STA most, if not all, of the time.) You probably don't mean it that way, but maybe, just maybe, this is why people don't seem to react the way you might expect them to when you write about STA. There was no emoticon to help convey tone, either.

While I don't really care to nit pick other comments, I'm curious how you figure they have a losing record against top teams ...
STA is 4-3 against teams on your list. If you add in the top Class A teams, they then become 6-5.

I do use Class A, and count the following as quality wins: PL, Tonka, LVN, HM. You could make a case for Duluth Marshall, which would get it to 5-5, but I'm not buying Totino. In both PS2 and Mitch's rankings, they're in the mid-30s, alongside teams like Lakeville South, Farmington, and Rosemount.

I don't disagree with your Class A ranking of these teams because when teams are right next to each other (as Breck/DM/T-G are in Class A rankings) I'm fine with bumping up the team that has a head-to-head win. Clearly these teams are capable of beating some pretty good opponents. But for my purposes here I think it makes more sense to look at the whole picture when judging whether something is a "quality win" or not. Thus Breck (largely on the strength of its two wins over STA!) is a legit top-25ish team in the state, whereas DM is borderline and Totino doesn't quite get there.

It's an arbitrary cutoff for "quality win" (as any cutoff would be), but it was a quick way to show how putting precedent on one or two games over the overall picture can be misleading.

[Traxler]

1. Lakeville North (16-3-1)
-With their unbeaten streak now at 15, the Panthers are likely the first 1AA team to be ranked #1 in the two-class era. They beat an Eastview team that had previously beaten them this past week, which is an obvious sign of improvement, and they held off increasingly pesky Apple Valley, too. They face a decent Jefferson team and their crosstown rival this week; while they look good in both on paper, we’ll see how they handle the new target on their backs.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Lakeville South

Looks like the Tuesday game is vs. Bloomington Jefferson, not at. I know, nitpick, but accuracy is good.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

1. Lakeville North (16-3-1)
-With their unbeaten streak now at 15, the Panthers are likely the first 1AA team to be ranked #1 in the two-class era. They beat an Eastview team that had previously beaten them this past week, which is an obvious sign of improvement, and they held off increasingly pesky Apple Valley, too. They face a decent Jefferson team and their crosstown rival this week; while they look good in both on paper, we’ll see how they handle the new target on their backs.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Lakeville South

Looks like the Tuesday game is vs. Bloomington Jefferson, not at. I know, nitpick, but accuracy is good.

Ya...that's nit picking.....when I looked at last week's rankings (01-19-2014), under Burnsville it said that game between Burnsville and EP was at EP......so I drove all the way over to EP......

[hockeyfan893]

In an effort to both contribute constructively and perhaps quell some of the heated discussions regarding Section 3AA with some cool and calm discussion, I have compiled the following information. "Top Teams" Refers to the top 15 plus the bubble teams listed in the most recent update of Karl's weekly rankings. I would like to preface everything by saying that if I have made a mistake anywhere below, please feel free to correct me and I will edit and readjust my analysis as necessary. My motivation for doing this was the previous discussion regarding a "presumption" that STA is the clear and logical favorite to come out of 3AA and the objection raised to it by a supporter and follower of another 3AA team.

Wins over Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: Lakeville North 5-2 (12/7); Minnetonka 4-1 (12/10); Prior Lake 6-3 (12/28); Hill Murray 4-2 (1/23)
Eagan: Edina 2-1 (12/7); Hermantown 4-1 (A, 12/28); Bloomington Jefferson (1/4)
Eastview: Lakeville North 4-3 (11/26); Andover 4-1 (12/26); Eagan 3-2 (1/11)
CDH: Eagan 2-1 (12/13); White Bear Lake 3-1 (1/11)

Losses to Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: Hill Murray 2-3 (12/12); Burnsville 2-3 (12/26); Breck 4-5 (12/27); Benilde 3-4 (1/7); Breck 3-6 (1/25)*
Eagan: Burnsville 1-3 (12/14); Prior Lake 3-4 (12/17); Lakeville North 2-4 (1/7); Eastview 2-3 (1/11); Bloomington Jefferson 3-4 (1/18)
Eastview: Burnsville 1-6 (12/10); Bloomington Jefferson 1-4 (12/17); Prior Lake 3-5 (1/14); Lakeville North 1-4 (1/21); Burnsville 2-3 (1/25)
CDH: Eden Prairie 2-6 (12/13); Edina 2-5 (12/31)

Questionable/Worrisome Outcomes and Losses
St. Thomas Academy: Holy Angels 4-4 (11/30); Arguably the second loss to Breck given Breck's recent slide.*
Eagan: Lakeville South 3-5 (11/26); Cretin Derham Hall 1-2 (12/26); Eastridge 4-4 (1/2)
Eastview: None to speak of.
CDH: Forest Lake 3-3 (12/5); Forest Lake 3-4 (1/16); Stillwater 2-3 (1/23)

Record against Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: 4-5 *(4-4 excluding second loss to Breck)
Eagan: 3-5
Eastview: 3-0
CDH: 2-2

The records of these 4 squads against top teams reflect the level of parity that has been mentioned all too often in high school hockey this season. One might as well be flipping a coin, or so it seems.

CDH is likely not a threat to the other three teams here. Yes, they beat Eagan once, but countless other games indicate that this team does not deserve being given the same consideration when playoffs come around. From here, it gets harder.

Eagan and Eastview have both lost to Burnsville, Prior Lake, Bloomington Jefferson, and Lakeville North by fairly similar scores. The losses to top teams, quite conveniently, are a wash.

Eastview beat Lakeville North and Eagan beat Edina, both top 5 teams respectively, however these results are outdated in my mind at this point in the season, especially given the rise of Lakeville North. Fortunately, Eagan and Eastview played head-to-head fairly recently, with Eastview edging out the win. In my mind, this warrants giving Eastview the slight edge when it comes to playoffs.

St. Thomas is the odd duck here. As Karl has mentioned elsewhere, STA is the only team in the state to have beaten both of the top two teams, LVN and HM. But other than the Hill-Murray win, STA doesn't have much to speak of in terms of performance over the last month. They lost to a sliding Breck team, a lower-than-usual BSM team, and trounced some opponents during an easy stretch of the schedule.

In regards to the aforementioned discussion. Yes, one commentator make a "presumption," however the "presumption" was made in a hypothetical scenario, and thus I believe there was no need to attack said comment as such. Even if an individual favors a certain team and believes in his heart of hearts that his team is the clear favorite and will, definitely, win their section - why attack it? Hell, why even make predictions for games then? If I make a prediction that Team X will beat Team Y, is that not presumptive? It's certainly not arrogant - unless, of course, you happen to support Team Y and I support Team X

Main point here being, there is a high level of parity in Section 3AA just like the rest of the state. Based on the results so far, in my mind, STA, Eagan, and Eastview all stand a solid and near-equivalent chance when it comes to playoffs. That's all that this discussion, boiled down to results and stripped of ad-hominem attacks, can demonstrate effectively.

[almostashappy]

In an effort to both contribute constructively and perhaps quell some of the heated discussions regarding Section 3AA with some cool and calm discussion, I have compiled the following information. "Top Teams" Refers to the top 15 plus the bubble teams listed in the most recent update of Karl's weekly rankings. I would like to preface everything by saying that if I have made a mistake anywhere below, please feel free to correct me and I will edit and readjust my analysis as necessary. My motivation for doing this was the previous discussion regarding a "presumption" that STA is the clear and logical favorite to come out of 3AA and the objection raised to it by a supporter and follower of another 3AA team.

Wins over Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: Lakeville North 5-2 (12/7); Minnetonka 4-1 (12/10); Prior Lake 6-3 (12/28); Hill Murray 4-2 (1/23)
Eagan: Edina 2-1 (12/7); Hermantown 4-1 (A, 12/28); Bloomington Jefferson (1/4)
Eastview: Lakeville North 4-3 (11/26); Andover 4-1 (12/26); Eagan 3-2 (1/11)
CDH: Eagan 2-1 (12/13); White Bear Lake 3-1 (1/11)

Losses to Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: Hill Murray 2-3 (12/12); Burnsville 2-3 (12/26); Breck 4-5 (12/27); Benilde 3-4 (1/7); Breck 3-6 (1/25)*
Eagan: Burnsville 1-3 (12/14); Prior Lake 3-4 (12/17); Lakeville North 2-4 (1/7); Eastview 2-3 (1/11); Bloomington Jefferson 3-4 (1/18)
Eastview: Burnsville 1-6 (12/10); Bloomington Jefferson 1-4 (12/17); Prior Lake 3-5 (1/14); Lakeville North 1-4 (1/21); Burnsville 2-3 (1/25)
CDH: Eden Prairie 2-6 (12/13); Edina 2-5 (12/31)

Questionable/Worrisome Outcomes and Losses
St. Thomas Academy: Holy Angels 4-4 (11/30); Arguably the second loss to Breck given Breck's recent slide.*
Eagan: Lakeville South 3-5 (11/26); Cretin Derham Hall 1-2 (12/26); Eastridge 4-4 (1/2)
Eastview: None to speak of.
CDH: Forest Lake 3-3 (12/5); Forest Lake 3-4 (1/16); Stillwater 2-3 (1/23)

Record against Top Teams
St. Thomas Academy: 4-5 *(4-4 excluding second loss to Breck)
Eagan: 3-5
Eastview: 3-0
CDH: 2-2

The records of these 4 squads against top teams reflect the level of parity that has been mentioned all too often in high school hockey this season. One might as well be flipping a coin, or so it seems.

CDH is likely not a threat to the other three teams here. Yes, they beat Eagan once, but countless other games indicate that this team does not deserve being given the same consideration when playoffs come around. From here, it gets harder.

Eagan and Eastview have both lost to Burnsville, Prior Lake, Bloomington Jefferson, and Lakeville North by fairly similar scores. The losses to top teams, quite conveniently, are a wash.

Eastview beat Lakeville North and Eagan beat Edina, both top 5 teams respectively, however these results are outdated in my mind at this point in the season, especially given the rise of Lakeville North. Fortunately, Eagan and Eastview played head-to-head fairly recently, with Eastview edging out the win. In my mind, this warrants giving Eastview the slight edge when it comes to playoffs.

St. Thomas is the odd duck here. As Karl has mentioned elsewhere, STA is the only team in the state to have beaten both of the top two teams, LVN and HM. But other than the Hill-Murray win, STA doesn't have much to speak of in terms of performance over the last month. They lost to a sliding Breck team, a lower-than-usual BSM team, and trounced some opponents during an easy stretch of the schedule.

In regards to the aforementioned discussion. Yes, one commentator make a "presumption," however the "presumption" was made in a hypothetical scenario, and thus I believe there was no need to attack said comment as such. Even if an individual favors a certain team and believes in his heart of hearts that his team is the clear favorite and will, definitely, win their section - why attack it? Hell, why even make predictions for games then? If I make a prediction that Team X will beat Team Y, is that not presumptive? It's certainly not arrogant - unless, of course, you happen to support Team Y and I support Team X

Main point here being, there is a high level of parity in Section 3AA just like the rest of the state. Based on the results so far, in my mind, STA, Eagan, and Eastview all stand a solid and near-equivalent chance when it comes to playoffs. That's all that this discussion, boiled down to results and stripped of ad-hominem attacks, can demonstrate effectively.

Thanks for the hard work you've put into your post and your compilation.

My tongue-in-cheek response to HSHW wasn't a critique of his "presumption that STA is the clear and logical favorite to come out of 3AA." Nobody is arguing (at this point) that STA shouldn't be the top seed in 3AA. I would vote for them....and have held that opinion since before Christmas when I was handicapping the implications of the Eagan - CDH match-up. It was the presumption that STA will come out of 3AA, in a hypothetical in which some other top teams would go to State, and others would not. I stand by my first point in my previous post. It would have been so simple to say "If STA and LN and HM make it to the Tourney..."

For the record, as of tonight I'd say the 3AA seeds should be:

1. STA
2. Eastview
3. CDH
4. Eagan


But I'll also say that there are important games over the last 3 weeks of the season that could affect seeds. And I'll also agree that there's a lot of parity in this section, with any of the top four teams capable of beating the other 3 on any given night.

Now, if you want me to quibble with your analysis....it's curious that you label Eagan's victory over Edina as "outdated" at the same time that you identify their season opening loss to Lakeville South as questionable. A little consistency here would be nice. But not mandatory.

Bottom line....as a Wildcat fan, I might "presume" that Eagan is going to have to beat STA at some point in Sections to make it to the Tourney. But it doesn't matter to me when they have that potential opportunity...whether it's the semi's at the Coliseum, or in the final at the Coliseum. And not unless the Cats earn that opportunity by winning in the QF round. Just drop the dang puck and let's get on with it.

[HShockeywatcher]

I don't disagree with your Class A ranking of these teams because when teams are right next to each other (as Breck/DM/T-G are in Class A rankings) I'm fine with bumping up the team that has a head-to-head win. Clearly these teams are capable of beating some pretty good opponents. But for my purposes here I think it makes more sense to look at the whole picture when judging whether something is a "quality win" or not. Thus Breck (largely on the strength of its two wins over STA!) is a legit top-25ish team in the state, whereas DM is borderline and Totino doesn't quite get there.

It's an arbitrary cutoff for "quality win" (as any cutoff would be), but it was a quick way to show how putting precedent on one or two games over the overall picture can be misleading.

We don't need to go by "my rankings," LPH has DM at 4, Breck at 5 and Totino at 6 and Breck has lost to both DM and Totino. No need to split hairs, but hopefully we can both agree that 5-5 is not a losing record...

You asked a question and I gave an answer, and used the team we were already talking about as an example. Otherwise, I think we're mostly in violent agreement.

Yeah, I took your sarcasm seriously. I say this not as a criticism, but...I'm not sure you're aware of the tone your words often seem to have when you write about STA on here. Maybe others will disagree, but it just comes across as very, very earnest and defensive. Maybe this is a legacy of your days of doing Class A rankings when a lot of people tried to criticize you for perceived bias towards STA. (I add here that I agreed with your ranking of STA most, if not all, of the time.) You probably don't mean it that way, but maybe, just maybe, this is why people don't seem to react the way you might expect them to when you write about STA. There was no emoticon to help convey tone, either.

Sure, they tied Holy Angels in the second game of the season with their now back up goalie in net. But I hope coaches would be ranking the teams that make it to state, not the ones who were playing in December. Just like it shouldn't for other teams, like Burnsville or North, for example.
I merely asked a question not pertaining to any specific team. And while you can pick apart one team, there are others you can as well, which is why I think head to head matters a lot. It's why my section rankings (and actual section seedings for the most part) are not the same as the state rankings. Head to head matters a lot.
Do you think it makes sense in seeding 8 teams to have one team ranked directly above a team they lost to because "their body of work is better?"
I guess I wonder why it would be that much different than how section seedings work in your mind. In almost all sections the body of work is used to break up ties when head to head doesn't work, why the other way around when you get to state?

Yes, I have obviously been both earnest and defensive about many things pertaining to STA in the past. There has been plenty to have both feelings about in the past. Yesterday, though, was the first time all season I've even commented on St Thomas and it was to agree with you. Being defensive comes when you are defending something. Here, I have nothing I am defending, nor trying to prove, I'm simply asking a question. While I'd disagree with Blaine being ahead of them, I think them not being seeded is a very real possibility if the 6 teams I mentioned plus Elk River make it.
Not sure how doesn't "convey tone," but we can agree to disagree...

[karl(east)]

We don't need to go by "my rankings," LPH has DM at 4, Breck at 5 and Totino at 6 and Breck has lost to both DM and Totino. No need to split hairs, but hopefully we can both agree that 5-5 is not a losing record...

Just to clear this up...I don't think LPH is any better than you are. When it comes to measuring the achievements of of the AA teams I'm ranking against Class A teams, I'm using the computers and/or some version of my quality wins/losses method, period.

...while you can pick apart one team, there are others you can as well, which is why I think head to head matters a lot. It's why my section rankings (and actual section seedings for the most part) are not the same as the state rankings. Head to head matters a lot.
Do you think it makes sense in seeding 8 teams to have one team ranked directly above a team they lost to because "their body of work is better?"
I guess I wonder why it would be that much different than how section seedings work in your mind. In almost all sections the body of work is used to break up ties when head to head doesn't work, why the other way around when you get to state?

Well, I do use body of work for section seeding, and then use head-to-head as a (rough) tiebreaker. I wrote this on the 7AA thread a little bit ago:

"When teams are in the same general ballpark in the rankings, then yes, it makes a lot of sense to rely on head-to-head match-ups to determine seeding; it's also useful when looking at teams out of the top 20, where things are much more of a crapshoot. But if section record is the primary factor, you can wind up being a slave to some pretty dense logic.

Section seeding should be based on 25 games, not 3 or 4."

I stand by that. Whether you start with overall work or section record, 95% of the time this ends up being roughly the same thing. But sometimes, the logic just gets screwy. A good example here is Grand Rapids last year; they lost a bad St. Francis team and a mediocre Forest Lake team, but were still a top ten team in most rankings. They got the 2-seed, and deservedly so, in my opinion: they clearly were the second-best team in 7AA.

When we get to State, there may not even be 3 or 4 key games that matter--it may be one or two. Maybe zero, if teams like Luverne or Roseau make it this year. I don't see how starting with head-to-head can be very fruitful in that scenario. In the end I can see that getting people into far more logical trouble than the other way around.

There is a logic to starting with head-to-head, but I think this will lead one to (a) potential traps of transitive property logic and/or lack of games at against each other at State, and (b) a position that isn't terribly useful, seeing as there is no evidence of it being used in past State seeding. It follows the rough consensus on the rankings, year in and year out, with perhaps the occasional bump to a team for a head-to-head result that the computers don't prioritize (ie. North over Hill this year.) There might be mild disagreement, but there will be no tortuous logic.

It's also worth noting that, when we get to state, teams that might be "right next to each other" in the rankings of the remaining eight might actually be far apart. Say #15 beat #5, but the other State Tourney entrants are 1-4 and 16 and 17. Should #15 really go ahead of #5? Now take a Tourney where the other six entrants are all between #5 and #15. Do you still put #15 ahead of #5? If not, where's the cutoff? I could go on and on.

Those logical puzzles just don't exist when you use the more comprehensive method, and that is a relief for everyone.

PM me if you want to continue the whole STA/defensiveness discussion, since I don't think the rest of the forum needs to read our little back-and-forth on that front.

[observer]

That's a lot about nothing.

The point is, nobody likes STA.

[DrGaf]

That's a lot about nothing.

The point is, nobody likes STA.

DING DING DING!!!

[Cadets16]

The point is, nobody likes STA.

I like STA.

[Traxler]

The point is, nobody likes STA.

I like STA.

There goes observer's self loathing theory...

[pekyman]

The point is, nobody likes STA.

I like STA.

I like STA in AA.

[HShockeywatcher]

Well, I do use body of work for section seeding, and then use head-to-head as a (rough) tiebreaker. I wrote this on the 7AA thread a little bit ago:

"When teams are in the same general ballpark in the rankings, then yes, it makes a lot of sense to rely on head-to-head match-ups to determine seeding; it's also useful when looking at teams out of the top 20, where things are much more of a crapshoot. But if section record is the primary factor, you can wind up being a slave to some pretty dense logic.

Section seeding should be based on 25 games, not 3 or 4."

I stand by that. Whether you start with overall work or section record, 95% of the time this ends up being roughly the same thing. But sometimes, the logic just gets screwy. A good example here is Grand Rapids last year; they lost a bad St. Francis team and a mediocre Forest Lake team, but were still a top ten team in most rankings. They got the 2-seed, and deservedly so, in my opinion: they clearly were the second-best team in 7AA.

Interesting; I would've used head to head and come to the same conclusion, because in doing so you can't look at one team in a vacuum. While St Francis did have a 1 goal win over Rapids midway through the season, they also got shut out 6-0 by Forest Lake and lost to CEC to end the season. The transitive property almost never works perfectly to seed sections. If it does, great, but in most cases you will look at other things to break it up. All the teams aside from Rapids fell perfectly into place, and considering they beat the 3 seed and tied the 4 seed twice and lost to the 1 seed by 1 goal, I would find it hard to put them anywhere but 2 without considering the rest of the their schedule.
I could be wrong, but I highly doubt their "body of work" would've come into play had those ties to CEC been loses or the OT win to Elk River been a tie or a loss.

I didn't start my rankings until the next season and can't find others to compare to, but I'd be interested in finding them to compare the Class A field of 2008-2009. If you don't look at rankings and simply look at the the teams that were seeded, it seems the nothing more than the transitive property (or head to head) was used for seeding. 1 beat 2, 2 beat 3 and 4 didn't play any of those teams during the season. I remember the discussion that year of how Breck was the favorite to win (and they did).
I wish I had them prior to the tournament, but using PageStat after the tournament puts it: 1 Breck, 2 Warroad, 3 Cathedral, 4 Little Falls and yet they were seeded in the opposite order.
(That could be 100% because the results of those games have factored into the current ranking from that year)

I can't speak to AA, but from watching Class A over the years, I haven't seen a time where there were head to head results and teams were seeded out of order because of body of work at state or at the section level. I haven't followed it as closely, but I haven't seen it at the AA level that I can recall either.

If WBL had won the game against Hill, would you think Hill would still be the top seed in the section because of the rest of their season?

This isn't me being defensive, telling you you're wrong, but simply me explaining my experience. If you know of good examples of times when teams have been seeded in sections or state with vastly different head to head results than their seed because of the rest of their schedule, I'd love to see them.