AA Rankings for 2/2/14

[karl(east)]

There are two weeks to go in the regular season, and while the top part of the rankings is pretty stable for once, several sections have become zoos. We’ll run through those in a moment, but first, the rankings:

1. Lakeville North (18-3-1)
-The Panthers continue to score in bunches, putting up seven goals in games against Jefferson and crosstown rival South. The unbeaten streak is now at 16, and though South did hang around for two periods to give them some hope in sections, the Panthers are still in thorough command of 1AA. A road trip to Duluth this week provides one last test against a top ten team, and Eagan isn’t an easy out, either.
This week: Thurs at #7 Duluth East, Sat vs. Eagan

2. Hill-Murray (17-3)
-No worries this past week, as the Pioneers rolled past the directional St. Pauls. Their next game is their last big test of the year, and could play a role in deciding State Tournament seeding.
This week: Wed vs. #6 Blaine, Thurs vs. Richfield, Sat vs. Simley

3. Edina (16-4-1)
-The Hornets fended off Eden Prairie to earn their second win of the season over the Eagles, and beat Holy Angels as well. They’ve tightened up defensively over the past few weeks, allowing just one goal in each of their last four. Up next is Wayzata in a game that could easily wind up deciding the Lake Conference champion.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Wayzata, Sat at Hopkins

4. Wayzata (16-4-1)
-The Trojans kept up their defensive dominance in a second shutout win over a dangerous Eden Prairie team, clinching the top seed in 6AA in the process. The Edina game looms this week; it will be their last game against a ranked team.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat at Minnetonka

5. Burnsville (15-5-1)
-The Blaze squeaked by Eagan before handling Apple Valley this past week. Many of their important games recently have been tight, but they’re getting the job done. They now play a pair of decent 2AA foes, though they handled both in the teams’ first meetings of the year. They’re the only team in the top seven that doesn’t play another top-seven team this week.
This week: Thurs at Prior Lake, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

6. Blaine (15-3-1)
-The Bengals survived a scare against Centennial to secure a fifth straight win. They have a huge week ahead of them, with four road games, including a battle with Hill and a game that could easily decide the Northwest Suburban Conference champion. This team can be as dominant as any when they’re on; can they put it all together now and finally climb into the top 5?
This week: Mon at Armstrong, Wed at #2 Hill-Murray, Thurs at #11 Elk River, Sat at Champlin Park

7. Duluth East (14-4-1)
-Bad weather left the Hounds with a second straight one-game week, and they nearly coughed one up against Lakeville South before grabbing an overtime win. They often win ugly, but they just keep winning, and with a lot of attrition in this part of the rankings, they edge their way up. The schedule gets busy now, and their next two games are big ones against rival Cloquet and top-ranked North.
This week: Mon vs. Cloquet, Thurs vs. #1 Lakeville North, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville

8. Eden Prairie (12-7-2)
-Two losses to top five teams this past week for the Eagles; they did a good job of hanging with Edina, but struggled to get through the Wayzata defense. Somehow this means they move up in the rankings, but it’s been that sort of year. A battle with Benilde this week will be huge 6AA seeding.
This week: Thurs vs. Minnetonka, Sat vs. #10 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

9. Maple Grove (12-6-2)
-The Crimson had been hovering around the top teams for most of the year, waiting to get a big win, and they finally got it by knocking off Elk River. They have an interesting game on Tuesday, when they play an Andover team that beat them in early January, and will also hope a big section battle with Centennial doesn’t get delayed by weather for a third time this season.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Andover, Wed at Centennial, Sat vs. Osseo

10. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-6-2)
-Cold weather wiped out the Red Knights’ lone game of the week. Their extra rest sets them up for games with a good Class A team in Totino-Grace and a pivotal 6AA game against Eden Prairie.
This week: Tues at Totino-Grace, Sat at #8 Eden Prairie

11. Elk River (13-5)
-The Elks had a rough week, falling to Maple Grove and Andover. Neither one is a terrible loss with the way those two have been playing lately, but they are going to need to right the ship soon if they want to stay relevant in the rankings. Their two games with 5AA contenders this week could make a world of difference in how we think of this team heading into sections.
This week: Mon vs. Anoka, Thurs vs. #6 Blaine, Sat at Centennial

12. St. Thomas Academy (13-6-1)
-A loss to Cretin drops the Cadets back out of the top ten, though they bounced back with easy wins over two Classic Suburban teams. Tuesday’s battle with Holy Family looks to be their only competitive game remaining.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Holy Family, Thurs at Mahtomedi, Sat at South St. Paul

13. Eastview (16-5)
-Methodically took care of a pair of conference opponents, continuing to boost a very strong record. They face two more mid-level SSC teams this week; their remaining schedule isn’t overly difficult, but they must avoid a slip-up to grab a high seed in a messy 3AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South, Sat vs. Rosemount

14. Andover (13-7)
-The Huskies showed they’re a real contender this past week, as their 5-2 win over Elk River capped an 8-game winning streak that includes 3 wins over top 20 teams. They’ve shown they can beat just about anyone in the NWSC when they’re on, and we don’t know how high their ceiling is yet. A second win over Maple Grove would boost them even further.
This week: Tues at #9 Maple Grove, Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. Anoka

15. Holy Family (14-4-1)
-No troubles in Wright County play for the Fire, though they drop a spot to accommodate Andover. Their game against St. Thomas this week will be their last chance to do something against a AA contender this season. Even though it’s not a section game, it’s a big one for the Fire to prove they belong in the conversation here, since their schedule just doesn’t give them many such opportunities.
This week: Tues at #12 St. Thomas Academy, Wed vs. Orono, Sat vs. Delano

Bubble

White Bear Lake (14-5-1)
-Needed overtime to escape Stillwater, which could mean they’re in for a dangerous semifinal with the Ponies. But they got the job done in the end, and also shut out Park. They play three teams from the middle tier of the Suburban East this week; strong wins this week would ease some of the worries about a possible upset before they reach the finals in 4AA.

Cretin-Derham Hall (15-4-2)
-Knocking off St. Thomas gives the Raiders the signature win outside the SEC that they so sorely needed, and might just be enough to nab the top seed in 3AA. They also tied Mounds View, however, and that complicates things: they had no trouble skating with the talented Cadets, but the consistency really hasn’t been there down the stretch; they’ve only won three of their last six SEC games. They’ll look to find some steadiness this week against decent Roseville and East Ridge teams.

Eagan (13-8-1)
-The Wildcats are quietly doing well down the stretch, as they gave Burnsville a one-goal game and won comfortably against a Prior Lake team that had beaten them in December. It’s probably worth pointing that they are noticeably higher in the computer rankings, and while that is probably because they’re taking care of weaker teams by larger margins, it does show they can probably hang with anyone when they’re playing their tight defense. Only one game this week, but it’s against top-ranked North.

Centennial (11-8)
-The Cougars continue to be pesky, but come up short: they’ve played four games against higher-ranked teams over the past month, and lost them all by one goal. They have two more shots against NWSC teams that have beaten them by one goal this week, with Maple Grove and Elk River on the docket.

Roseau (14-6-1)
-The Rams lost to Warroad for a second time this season, but that doesn’t affect them negatively in the rankings, and a second big win over Bemidji assures them of the top seed in 8AA and what looks to be a fairly easy road to the section final. Their remaining games are all against Class A opponents, though they do have something to prove this week, since both Thief River Falls and East Grand Forks have beaten them this season.

Grand Rapids (14-7)
-Losses to Virginia and Moorhead send the Thunderhawks plummeting; with the way they’ve been playing lately, even this may be a bit generous. They only have Class A opponents left, though a win over Hermantown this week would help their standing somewhat.

Moorhead (10-10-1)
-The Spuds had an up-and-down week; a loss to Brainerd gives the Warriors some hope in the 8AA race, but they came back to pick up a good win over Grand Rapids. Their only game this week is a make-up of a weather-delayed game against Thief River Falls on Saturday.

It’s a royal mess after that; in rough order, I’ll say: Bloomington Jefferson, Stillwater, Brainerd, Prior Lake.

Sections:

1AA
1 Lakeville North
-North’s 7-2 win over South keeps them far ahead of the field. South’s 6-3 victory over Rochester Mayo should assure them of a spot in the top 3, despite the ugly record; I’m guessing Farmington will take the 2-seed due to their strong record, but common opponents suggest a tight semifinal, with a slight edge to South. The second Mayo-Owatonna game on Feb. 11 will likely decide the 4-seed.

2AA
3 Edina
5 Burnsville
(23) Bloomington Jefferson
Prior Lake
-While Edina still has a couple of big games left that could push them downward, they are now comfortable favorites for the top seed. Burnsville plays Prior Lake and Bloomington Jefferson, the likely 3- and 4-seeds this week; both are possible semifinal previews. Neither one is exactly seizing the initiative in the race for #3; at this point, I’d give it to Jefferson since they won the later meeting and will likely finish with a slightly better record. A win over Burnsville for either would lock them in at #3.

3AA
13 Eastview
(17) Cretin-Derham Hall
12 St. Thomas Academy
(18) Eagan
-Perhaps the most confusing section I have ever seen. The top four are close enough for head-to-head results to matter, and Eastview and Cretin are both unbeaten in the section. The question then becomes whether Cretin’s win over St. Thomas is enough to make up for their otherwise weaker regular season; they have two questionable losses and two questionable ties, while Eastview only has one poor loss and that came early in the season. Since Eastview has some quality wins, too, I’m going with the Lightning, though I’d understand if the coaches voted otherwise. If they do think Cretin deserves the top spot, Eastview should probably drop to #3 behind St. Thomas. There’s also the matter of the Eastview-Eagan game on Feb. 11; the loser is almost certainly #4, while an Eastview win would help their cause for #1, and an Eagan win would get them up to #3. An upset loss for any of these teams over the next two weeks could have a real impact, too. Barring a number of upsets, this section is unlikely to have a team seeded at State, no matter who wins.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
(16) White Bear Lake
(24) Stillwater
-No surprises here, and everything looks to be locked in. Stillwater’s OT loss to White Bear suggests there will be a good semifinal there, and the Bears can’t assume they’ll be in the title game against Hill. Roseville seems most likely to end up at #4.

5AA
6 Blaine
9 Maple Grove
(19) Centennial
-Blaine’s win over Centennial probably gets them the top seed; while they will play Maple Grove on Feb. 14, they already beat the Crimson 9-3, and have had the stronger season. They’d have to lose another game or to cough up the top spot. The Centennial-Maple Grove game this week will probably decide the 2-seed, though Maple Grove could lose that one and still be #2 with a win over Blaine. Rogers should be locked in at #4.

6AA
4 Wayzata
8 Eden Prairie
15 Holy Family
10 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Wayzata has itself the top seed after a second win over Eden Prairie. 2-4 remains unsettled, though, and comes down to this Saturday’s Eden Prairie-Benilde game. An Eden Prairie win should give them the 2-seed, and could leave Benilde with the 4-seed, with their head-to-head loss to Holy Family. Holy Family is the wild card here, and a win over St. Thomas would really help them prove the Benilde win wasn’t a fluke. With a win over the Cadets, they could claim the 3-seed; perhaps even the 2-seed if Benilde beats Eden Prairie. Ultimately, it will come down to what the other coaches think of the Fire’s schedule. Further down, Hopkins should have the 5-seed, as they beat Minnetonka for a second time to send the Skippers (7-13) to their fifth straight loss—with their next four games all against top ten teams as well.

7AA
11 Elk River
7 Duluth East
14 Andover
(21) Grand Rapids
-This section became a mess in a hurry. First, there is now a legitimate debate at the top, with Elk River owning the head-to-head win over East, but East boasting a higher ranking and fewer section losses. They’re close enough to each other that I’m keeping Elk River at #1 for now, but if the Elks drop further or East gets a big win over Lakeville North, that will change. Andover, meanwhile, climbs to #3; yes, they lost to Forest Lake, but the late-season win over Elk River has to count for something, and Grand Rapids is not playing like a top-3 seed right now. Forest Lake is probably locked in at #5. This section’s odds at a high seed at State are shrinking, though a 4 or a 5 remains a possibility.

8AA
(20) Roseau
(22) Moorhead
(25) Brainerd
-Roseau has the top spot locked up, but Brainerd threw a wrench into the race for the 2-seed with a win over Moorhead. With the win in the second meeting and a stronger record—albeit against a much weaker schedule—Brainerd has a good argument for the #2 now, but I’d still give it to the Spuds due to their overall body of work, which includes wins over the likes of Breck and Grand Rapids. No matter what, it should set up a great semifinal. Bemidji is the 4-seed.

There are a ton of big games this week. Go enjoy some. Thanks for reading.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Being #1 means having a target on your back. It's tough for an experienced program, doubly so for an up-and-comer like Lakeville North. Best case for a team like that is about a 5 or 6 ranking. It gives them something to prove.

Hopefully we'll see the best Section 1 team in the Tournament since the Civic Center days. I think it's great.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Being #1 means having a target on your back. It's tough for an experienced program, doubly so for an up-and-comer like Lakeville North. Best case for a team like that is about a 5 or 6 ranking. It gives them something to prove.

Hopefully we'll see the best Section 1 team in the Tournament since the Civic Center days. I think it's great.

Dude,
do you need to get slapped........Lakeville is not your common section 1 team.......they are not worried about getting to the state tourney.......they are worried about not winning the state ship.......they are that good....

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Being #1 means having a target on your back. It's tough for an experienced program, doubly so for an up-and-comer like Lakeville North. Best case for a team like that is about a 5 or 6 ranking. It gives them something to prove.

Hopefully we'll see the best Section 1 team in the Tournament since the Civic Center days. I think it's great.

Dude,
do you need to get slapped........Lakeville is not your common section 1 team.......they are not worried about getting to the state tourney.......they are worried about not winning the state ship.......they are that good....

If that's true, Lakeville N fans shouldn't worry at at. With that kind of over-confidence, they'll get dumped in the semis by Mayo.

[Tenoverpar]

Wow, I would say I was previously quietly rooting for L-NORTH to climb the rankings, as it was good to see a non-perrenial big dog going up the ladder..but now I can't wait to see them lose. What a RICHARD

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Wow, I would say I was previously quietly rooting for L-NORTH to climb the rankings, as it was good to see a non-perrenial big dog going up the ladder..but now I can't wait to see them lose. What a RICHARD

I was not serious about the comment above....just trying to stir up the pot as I have never been to a game, but if I don't have to see Hill or Edina...I will be happy.

[Tenoverpar]

"You had me at Hill"

[nahc]

As usual, GREAT job Karl!!!!

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Wow, I would say I was previously quietly rooting for L-NORTH to climb the rankings, as it was good to see a non-perrenial big dog going up the ladder..but now I can't wait to see them lose. What a RICHARD

Read the last two lines of my first post to see how I feel about Lake N's post season prospects. I'd love to see them at the X. (I'd love to see the Pioneers smash their glass slipper. You'd all be so P.O.'ed at us, just like when we did it to your beloved Roseau on '08.)

[bemused]

A very wide disparity between your rankings and Pagestat and Mitch Hawker's rankings. The most glaring difference is where you have Duluth East. They have DE rated #15 and #16.
I have not seen DE in a few weeks but that smells like some home cooking from here..I guess we'll see after LN. The #7 team should be able to beat them at home..

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Wow, I would say I was previously quietly rooting for L-NORTH to climb the rankings, as it was good to see a non-perrenial big dog going up the ladder..but now I can't wait to see them lose. What a RICHARD

Read the last two lines of my first post to see how I feel about Lake N's post season prospects. I'd love to see them at the X. (I'd love to see the Pioneers smash their glass slipper. You'd all be so P.O.'ed at us, just like when we did it to your beloved Roseau on '08.)

Actually, I was thinkin more like 2011 when WBL smashed Hill's slipper.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Actually, I was thinkin more like 2011 when WBL smashed Hill's slipper.[/quote]

Dept. Of Duh! We're not Cinderella. We're the Evil Empire.

We now close this remedial session of The Proper use of Sports Metaphors and resume our normal broadcast schedule.

[karl(east)]

A very wide disparity between your rankings and Pagestat and Mitch Hawker's rankings. The most glaring difference is where you have Duluth East. They have DE rated #15 and #16.
I have not seen DE in a few weeks but that smells like some home cooking from here..I guess we'll see after LN. The #7 team should be able to beat them at home..

When reading the computerized rankings, it's important to not just look at the ranking, but the actual rating number. If you look at those, you'll see the margins between some teams are minimal to nonexistent. Those ratings also prove what we've assumed: there is a ton of parity this year, and there are more teams within 1 or 2 goals of the top than in any other recent year. So I suppose it's natural that I'm not agreeing with them as much as usual, since very small things (a few empty-netters here and there, for example) can make the difference between 2 or 3 spots.

All of that said, East is noticeably lower in the computerized rankings because it is based around GF and GA, and East has had a bunch of narrow wins over mediocre or bad teams that other good teams have blown out (Cloquet, Apple Valley, Cambridge, Lakeville South). They're just not an explosive team, and I also think they're less talented than several teams right behind them, but they're playing reasonably well as a team, while some of those others have not been.

In the end those narrow wins raise some red flags (which I've been noting in the comments every time), but they're not really going to hurt a team's ranking, so long as they are wins. I think results against top teams are what really matter. I'm consistent with that; it just so happens that East is benefiting from it this season.

East has been riding upward the past few weeks mostly as other teams fall, not because of anything they've really done--which is one reason why I'm not giving them the top seed in 7AA just yet--but because no one else has made a leap to fill that void, and they do have a January win over Eden Prairie (right behind them) and tie to Maple Grove (two spots behind, and lost to EP).

[east hockey]

A very wide disparity between your rankings and Pagestat and Mitch Hawker's rankings. The most glaring difference is where you have Duluth East. They have DE rated #15 and #16.
I have not seen DE in a few weeks but that smells like some home cooking from here..I guess we'll see after LN. The #7 team should be able to beat them at home..

When reading the computerized rankings, it's important to not just look at the ranking, but the actual rating number. If you look at those, you'll see the margins between some teams are minimal to nonexistent. Those ratings also prove what we've assumed: there is a ton of parity this year, and there are more teams within 1 or 2 goals of the top than in any other recent year. So I suppose it's natural that I'm not agreeing with them as much as usual, since very small things (a few empty-netters here and there, for example) can make the difference between 2 or 3 spots.

All of that said, East is noticeably lower in the computerized rankings because it is based around GF and GA, and East has had a bunch of narrow wins over mediocre or bad teams that other good teams have blown out (Cloquet, Apple Valley, Cambridge, Lakeville South). They're just not an explosive team, and I also think they're less talented than several teams right behind them, but they're playing reasonably well as a team, while some of those others have not been.

This is an interesting point, and a true one in this case. If I remove the GF/GA and run the numbers assuming that every win is by a one goal margin, here is your Class AA top ten, with their "official" PageStat ranking in parenthesis:

1. Wayzata (3)
2. Edina (4)
3. Lakeville North (2)
4. Burnsville (1)
5. Hill-Murray (5)
6. Blaine (6)
7. Duluth East (14)
8. Benilde-St Margarets (15)
9. Eden Prairie (12)
10. Eastview (11)

In the case of East and Benilde, changing the "cap" made a noticeable difference in their rating. This makes sense--East is +25 in GF/GA differential, Benilde is +28. Teams playing low scoring games (East) are affected more negatively by PageStat--so are teams which score a lot and give up a lot (Benilde).

Which system is better? Mitch and I have had discussions on this, and I don't know the answer for sure. I mean, I haven't crunched enough numbers to know which system is better. I do know that, when applied retroactively, PageStat has a 84.37% accuracy rate in predicting winners, PageStat2 (the system which favors East ) has a 84.93% accuracy. It's pretty much a negligible difference, only about nine games out of the 1,593 played so far this season.

It's fun to speculate and play around with the numbers, but what counts is what happens in late February and early March. In other words, despite the time I put into this, I don't take PageStat as seriously as some who have emailed me with their "interesting" takes do.

Lee

[Ogie]

Looks like life as a road doggie has me missing a whale of a season.

Thanks for the recaps.

[tjkhavgam]

Thanks again for the insite. Looking forward to the last month of the season. Keep up the great work.

[bemused]

Can't wait until Sunday...

[Sats81]

awesome work as always.

[east hockey]

Can't wait until Sunday...

Yep. Can never be too much fodder for the Lessers to play with, eh?

Lee

[elliott70]

Can't wait until Sunday...

Yep. Can never be too much fodder for the Lessers to play with, eh?

Lee

If we have nothing to cheer about you can at least let us FOD in peace.

[east hockey]

Can't wait until Sunday...

Yep. Can never be too much fodder for the Lessers to play with, eh?

Lee

If we have nothing to cheer about you can at least let us FOD in peace.

FOD? Fill Our Days?

Lee

[bemused]

Can't wait until Sunday...

Yep. Can never be too much fodder for the Lessers to play with, eh?

Lee

if you want your insult (missing the ubiquitous emoticon)
to have it's max effect you will need to tell me what a Lesser is…if you were only playing to your minions on the board no need..a little too much inside baseball for me..

[OGEE OGELTHORPE]

That's what Lee calls the good people on "The other Bored"



You Mr. bemused are no Lesser.

Say hi to the kid for us.

[bemused]

That's what Lee calls the people on "The other Bored"



You Mr. bemused are no Lesser.

Say hi to the kid for us.

Ditto!!!