AA Rankings for 11/30/14

[karl(east)]

It’s an interesting first set of in-season rankings: there was practically zero movement in the top ten, but it’s wide open beyond that. Because of that, I’ve added an unusually long watch list, and am generally being pretty conservative and trying not to react too much to a single game. Here you go:

1. Edina (3-0-1)
-New year, same old Edina. It’ll take more than a Wayzata tie to knock them from the top spot, especially with dominant wins over everyone else they played. Their busy early schedule continues with a 3-game week, with two possible 3AA contenders bookending the much-anticipated rematch with Lakeville North.
This week: Tues vs. Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs at #2 Lakeville North, Sat vs. Rosemount

2. Lakeville North (1-0)
-The Panthers had an adventure in their opener, giving up 5 goals to Farmington and needing overtime to escape. To repeat my line from the preseason rankings, this isn’t the same old 1AA. Still, one game isn’t enough to raise any serious alarms, and they’ll stay at #2. Next up is a grudge match with #1, which will tell us a lot about this group. Has there ever been a bigger regular season game in Lakeville?
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Edina

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (2-0)
-The Red Knights are off to a strong start, solidifying their spot ahead of the rest with a 5-3 victory over Elk River. Based on a small sample size, the defense seems somewhat improved, and they have quality depth. The schedule stays tough this week, with Burnsville and Hill up next.
This week: Tues vs. #12 Burnsville, Sat vs. #7 Hill-Murray

4. St. Thomas Academy (0-0)
-While the rest of the state beats up on one another, the Cadets lie in wait. Their December schedule is not overly difficult, with two middling programs on the docket this week.
This week: Wed at Rosemount, Sat at Holy Angels

5. Elk River (1-1)
-The good news: the Elks’ explosive offense is as advertised, and they beat a good Wayzata team to stay in the top five. The bad news: they’ve sieved up ten goals in two games, which is not exactly a championship formula. After those tough openers, things ease up for a bit now in conference play, though if Maple Grove shows up that could be a good game.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove, Sat vs. Champlin Park

6. Wayzata (3-1-1)
-The Trojans had a busy and mostly positive start to their year, with a big tie against Edina and wins over Hermantown and Duluth East. The Elk River loss was a bit high-scoring for comfort, but with the Trojans’ schedule, they’re probably going to have a few games like that. The week ahead is a fairly easy one by their standards, as they play two South Suburban teams looking to distinguish themselves.
This week: Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat at Lakeville South

7. Hill-Murray (1-0)
-The Pioneers pulled out a 3-2 win over a good Burnsville team in their opener, which keeps them in the 7-spot. Their season continues its gradual start on Saturday, when they face off against Benilde in a great stylistic clash.
This week: Sat at #3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

8. Eden Prairie (2-0)
-This is the first team to move from their preseason ranking position, as the Eagles climb one whole spot. They got a pair of quality wins, with an offensive outburst against Maple Grove and a much more defensive showing against Prior Lake. Next up are a pair of South Suburban teams that could give them a fight.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat vs. Farmington

9. Duluth East (0-1)
-The Hounds were a bit flat in their opener in Wayzata, but with no one else making many moves in these parts of the rankings, a loss to a higher-ranked team is no reason to drop them. Their next few weeks are on the lighter side, and include a bunch of section games, beginning with a decent Andover squad.
This week: Thurs vs. Superior, Sat at Andover

10. Grand Rapids (2-0)
-The Thunderhawks haven’t exactly put their defensive concerns to rest yet, but they’ve scored plenty of goals in their wins, so they fill the vacuum at #10 for now. They stay up north for their next four, with Roseau and Warroad headlining the coming weekend.
This week: Tues vs. Virginia, Fri vs. Roseau, Sat vs. Warroad

11. Prior Lake (0-1-1)
-A tie against Lakeville South wasn’t an ideal start to the year, but they gave Eden Prairie a good fight in their second game, so there’s no reason to doubt the Lakers too much yet. This week’s lone game will be key for 2AA positioning.
This week: Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

12. Burnsville (1-1)
-Gave Hill a good fight before cruising past Eagan, which is enough to solidify their top 15 spot. They have a very tough schedule between now and Christmas, with Benilde and the first of three Lake teams turning up this week.
This week: Tues at #3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Minnetonka

13. Holy Family (2-1)
-After a nightmarish open against Edina, the Fire bounced back with wins over respectable Maple Grove and Stillwater teams. It’s a step in the right direction, but better showings against top-10 teams are needed to go much higher. Their next challenge comes in the form of Breck.
This week: Tues vs. Breck, Thurs vs. Holy Angels

14. Moorhead (1-1)
-The Spuds played a couple of teams in this tier tight, beating Minnetonka before falling to Blaine. That will probably be par for the course this season, as their tough defense keeps them in low-scoring games. Key section games against Bemidji and Buffalo loom this week.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Fri at Fargo South/Shanley, Sat vs. Buffalo

15. Blaine (1-1)
-The Bengals had a weird opening weekend, falling to Roseau before beating Moorhead; I kept them behind the Spuds because their loss is weaker. Opponents this week are a couple of teams in similar states of uncertainty, as they play Northwest Suburban newcomer Totino and limping Maple Grove.
This week: Thurs at Totino-Grace, Sat at Maple Grove

And now, a long list of teams on the watch list in rough order.

Farmington (1-1)
-The Tigers served notice to the rest of the state on Tuesday when they took Lakeville North to overtime. It’ll take more than one game to show they’ve really arrived, but it’s obviously an encouraging sign. After finishing off their Rochester slate they play their one difficult nonconference opponent, Eden Prairie.

Lakeville South (0-0-1)
-A tie with Prior Lake is a positive sign for South, though as with Farmington, one game isn’t quite enough to get them ranked. Doing something positive this week in their lone game, which is against Wayzata, probably would.

White Bear Lake (1-0)
-The Bears took care of business against Park, and will face a more substantial test against Bloomington Jefferson this week.

Centennial (0-1)
-Hard to say much about a 5-0 opening loss to Edina. Games against Osseo and Anoka this weekend give them a chance to beef up the record.

Minnetonka (1-1)
-Another 1-1 team puttering along; the Skippers scored twice in each of their first two, falling to Moorhead but beating Anoka. This week’s game with Burnsville will be instructive.

Cretin-Derham Hall (1-1)
-Blew out Holy Angels to get off to a good start, but spotted 7 goals to Mahtomedi next. The Zephyrs are good, but it’s hard to know if they’re that good, so the Raiders hold steady here.

Stillwater (1-1)
-The Ponies are not among the teams making an early impact, with a narrow win over Orono and a loss to Holy Family. They now settle into Suburban East play, where they should be able to beef up their record.

Maple Grove (0-3)
-The Crimson were handled easily by three quality opponents, and drop the furthest of anyone after one week. It’s early, but they’ll need to right the ship quickly, or else this season could spiral downhill in a hurry. That’s especially true with Elk River and Blaine coming up this week.

Bloomington Jefferson (2-0)
-The decent wins to start the season have the Jaguars climbing into the picture. With Prior Lake and White Bear this week, they have a chance to make even more of a statement.

Andover (1-0)
-Did what they needed to do against Robbinsdale. A battle with Duluth East looms.

Eastview (1-0)
-Another decent team that won a game it was supposed to win. A busy week includes two 3AA teams and Eden Prairie.

Roseau (2-1)
-The impressive win over Blaine was followed by a loss to St. Cloud Tech, but their control of play in both games suggests the Rams won’t go lightly in 8AA this season.

Cloquet (2-1)
-Off to a decent start and pouring lots of shots on opponents. Goaltending may be a concern. Have a tough one against Hermantown this week.

[Rich Clarke]

For what it's worth, the Hockey Hub has the Rams at 2-1, having opened the season on November 25 with a 5-1 win over Thief River Falls.

[karl(east)]

For what it's worth, the Hockey Hub has the Rams at 2-1, having opened the season on November 25 with a 5-1 win over Thief River Falls.

Correct, thanks.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Only thing I would say about Rapids D is they had Bemidji in running time going into the 3rd and the whole team checked out mentally early in that period, which is only natural when you're up by 6 goals. Against Forest Lake Rapids was without Connor LaRoque and Jack Dunnell on D and Jonah Bischoff at forward. I think the defense is much improved from last year, though I certainly understand wanting to see consistency with that against Roseau/Warroad this week. John Stampohar, Soph. D, appears to be the next great defensemen in a line of names that would include Jake Bischoff and Alex Goligoski.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Good rankings Karl!

[GolfGuy7900]

Curious about Maple Grove as I've followed the kids for a few years. Were they over rated, or simply not show up last week? I realize they played two good teams in WAY and EP, but losing to HF seems concerning

[bubblehockey27]

Curious about Maple Grove as I've followed the kids for a few years. Were they over rated, or simply not show up last week? I realize they played two good teams in WAY and EP, but losing to HF seems concerning

A lot of youth there, especially on defense. Also took a lot of untimely penalties against HF. Not a loss the Crimson want to have, but there's plenty of time left. I guess we'll know more after this week.

[minnscout]

Maple Grove seems to be lacking speed and high end skill.

[GolfGuy7900]

Thanks for the context from both of you

[WestMetro]

Maple Grove has a lot of very good experienced talent and 2 potentially great goalies. But MinnScout is correct that talent is not high end great

I had hoped team would have matured and be more disciplined than last year, but some of the old habits reappeared against HF, a game they could and should have won. Also, the score against EP shouldnt have been more lopsided than the Wayzata loss

At this point its correct to drop out of top 10, but the bottom of the top 10 is still fluid and if they get act together they could reappear and should still be competitive with Blaine for the section finals.

[Awil95]

Managed to get out to watch the hf/Stillwater game the other day . HF was absolutely dominat looking on the power play . Not sure how many goals were scored but they looked really good. Could play in there favor against less disciplined teams

[Sats81]

Managed to get out to watch the hf/Stillwater game the other day . HF was absolutely dominat looking on the power play . Not sure how many goals were scored but they looked really good. Could play in there favor against less disciplined teams

You on the 2nd or 3rd line over there?

[Awil95]

Managed to get out to watch the hf/Stillwater game the other day . HF was absolutely dominat looking on the power play . Not sure how many goals were scored but they looked really good. Could play in there favor against less disciplined teams

You on the 2nd or 3rd line over there?

Actaully stopped playing 2 years ago and am graduated . The power play looked good just my 2 cents . I didn't catch the Edina stream but just saying the power play looked good

[elliott70]

Perhaps all 15 will be in a different spot tomorrow, maybe #4 will be the same.