AA Rankings for 12/21/14

[karl(east)]

We’re a month deep into the season now. This is, typically, the hardest week to do this: there are enough games in the books to say significant things about some teams, but not about others, and we’re still not quite at the point where we can throw preseason expectations out the window.

Most teams only play once, if at all, this coming week, but there are enough big ones that there will be rankings next week. Next week’s will also include the customary holiday tournament preview and the section run-through, which will happen every other week from then until the end of the regular season.

1. Lakeville North (7-0)
-The beat goes on for top-ranked North; they didn’t blow out Rosemount or Lakeville South, but they’re taking care of business without too much stress, and have a decent cushion as #1 right now. They play one of their tougher December games on Tuesday.
This week: Tues at #6 Hill-Murray

2. Edina (8-1-1)
-The Hornet’s weren’t entirely dominant in winning three games in their Holiday Classic, which for opponents can either be an encouraging sign that they’re vulnerable, or a worrying sign that they still have a ways to go before they peak. Recent history would suggest the latter, but this team isn’t flawless, either. No matter what, they’re taking care of business for now, and remain a top-2 team. Their lone game this week is an important one within the section.
This week: Sat vs. #10 Burnsville

3. St. Thomas Academy (6-0)
-The Cadets remain in their holding pattern after two wins in conference play, though Tartan was a bit of an adventure. Now, things finally start to get interesting, and we’ll know what to make of this team. Up first: Wayzata, another top-5 team right there with them in the rankings.
This week: Tues at #5 Wayzata

4. Eden Prairie (7-2)
-Strong wins over Elk River and Grand Rapids solidify the Eagles’ standing among the top teams, and they gave Edina a very good fight as well. For now, that’s enough to make them a top-5 team, and a serious threat to repeat in 6AA. Blaine offers yet another challenge this week.
This week: Tues vs. Blaine

5. Wayzata (6-1-2)
-A tie against Burnsville is a setback for the Trojans, and only the deeper turmoil for other teams in this part of the rankings keeps them from dropping. Their game with St. Thomas gives them a chance to reassert themselves; holding up with just one loss against this schedule is hardly a disappointment.
This week: Tues vs. #3 St. Thomas Academy

6. Hill-Murray (6-1)
-The Pioneers took their first stumble of the year against Blaine, but rebounded with a quality win over Maple Grove to stay among the top teams in the state. This week, they get a crack at #1.
This week: Tues vs. #1 Lakeville North

7. Elk River (8-3)
-The Elks didn’t play nearly as badly against Eden Prairie and Edina as the scoreline suggests, and got a key section win over Grand Rapids. Still, one fact remains: this team continues to bleed goals at an alarming rate, and all of the top-15 teams they’ve played have scored at least 4 against them. It’s very hard to win anything meaningful that way. Their schedule the rest of the way is also very easy, with the 5AA contenders and Duluth East the only good teams left.
This week: Sat at Forest Lake

8. Prior Lake (6-1-1)
-The Lakers are looking more and more like a contender after a 4-goal win over a decent Eastview squad. They rest up this week before making their debut in the St. Louis Park Tournament.
This week: Idle

9. White Bear Lake (8-0)
-I have a lot of reservations about putting a team with zero top-25 wins this high, but the Bears are getting the job done. They got a big section win over Stillwater, which gives them something that at least resembles a quality win. They’re one of the few teams with two games this week, and the Centennial game will probably be their toughest test yet. It could either lock them in up here, or send them falling a very long way.
This week: Tues at Centennial, Sat vs. East Ridge

10. Burnsville (3-4-1)
-A tie with Wayzata suggests the Blaze aren’t out of their league in this part of the rankings, and while there’s still cause for some skepticism here, they continue to hold up fairly well against quality competition. For now, that’s enough to stay relevant. Up next: Edina, who they did finally manage to beat in the regular season last year.
This week: Sat at #2 Edina

11. Maple Grove (4-5)
-After everything that went wrong in the early going, the Crimson have looked decent of late, beating their two chief rivals for the 5AA crown, plus a decent Andover team. An inability to do more against Hill-Murray cost them further chance to move up, but they’ve at least proved their relevance and seem to have the hot hand, so we’ll reward them. They’re off this week.
This week: Idle

12. Grand Rapids (4-6)
-Lost all three of their Edina games, and have now dropped six straight. It’s all against good competition, and a number of the games have been close, but sooner or later, a team needs to figure out how to win an important game. At the very least they’re a step behind the Metro powers, and need to shore things up and play complete games. They should be able to get back into the win column over the next few weeks.
This week: Tues at Cloquet

13. Bemidji (7-1-1)
-A win over East Grand Forks gives the Lumberjacks a real signature victory, and solidifies their top-15 standing. A 20-win season isn’t out of the question. A win over Roseau this week would give them a near-stranglehold over 8AA.
This week: Tues at Roseau

14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-3-2)
-The Red Knights get the early season prize for inconsistency. They have two nice wins over top-six teams, but are also struggling mightily to put away mild-level competition, with a loss and two ties this past week. Things don’t get any easier for a while yet, either, with a road trip to one of Class A’s top teams this week.
This week: Tues at Duluth Marshall

15. Moorhead (5-2-2)
-A tie with Benilde lifts the Spuds back into the top 15, and shows they’ll probably be a factor for most of the way. They’re off this week, but will get a chance to make a bigger impact against a very difficult slate in St. Louis Park the following week.
This week: Idle

On the Bubble

Holy Family (5-3-2)
-The Fire have ties against the two teams immediately above them; they draw the short straw because they lack Benilde’s quality wins and Moorhead’s consistency, but they’re certainly in the picture here. They’re idle until the St. Louis Park tournament.

Blaine (5-4)
-The Bengals are about as inconsistent as it gets, with a big win over Hill-Murray and a head-scratching loss to Anoka in the same week. They’re awfully reliant on their top few forwards, and will need to get more consistent contributions to move up at all here. They have a chance to prove a bit more against Eden Prairie on Tuesday.

Minnetonka (4-4)
-The Skippers are certainly showing they’ll be competitive against quality teams, as proven by the wins over Benilde and Burnsville. But, like Blaine, they’re not consistent in the early going, and losses to Holy Family and (especially) Armstrong/Cooper keep them out of the top 15. Bloomington Jefferson is up on Tuesday.

Centennial (4-3)
-Pulled out a 3rd period comeback against Duluth East before falling in a tight one to Maple Grove. They seem consistently competitive, if a bit erratic within games themselves. The White Bear Lake game this week will be useful in comparing the Northwest Suburban to the Suburban East.

Duluth East (4-2-1)
-The Hounds continue to be rather mediocre, and coughed up a game against Centennial this past week. They’re probably better than this, but logic dictates that they fall back here until they get a few quality wins. They have a week to regroup before things get considerably tougher in the Schwan Cup.

Lakeville South (2-3-1)
-The win over Farmington has the Cougars with the early edge for the 2-seed in 1AA, but that and a tie with Prior Lake are about all they have to claim so far. After an off week, they’ll have a chance to make a statement in the Schwan Cup Silver.

Farmington (6-3)
-The Tigers spotted seven goals to Lakeville South, which drives them from the top 15. They have that narrow loss to North, but not a whole lot else to their credit quite yet, with losses to all 3 top-30 teams they’ve played. They are not among the teams whose lives get more difficult in the next few weeks, with a game against Owatonna this week.

Watch list: Hopkins, Andover, Eastview

[TheHockeyDJ]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

[hockey59]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

The NWSC is better than you think DJ. ER is a very talented team...that simply lacks a top end goalie...but still has the talent edge in 7AA. And 5AA is a 4 deep section, not 3 deep. Anoka's win over Blaine, days after Blaine beat HM, shows they are in the mix.

In addition, I attended the GR vs EP game...GR certainly has some top end talent...but EP shut them down...while GR was unable to shut down EP's top end talent...end of story.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

The NWSC is better than you think DJ. ER is a very talented team...that simply lacks a top end goalie...but still has the talent edge in 7AA. And 5AA is a 4 deep section, not 3 deep. Anoka's win over Blaine, days after Blaine beat HM, shows they are in the mix.

In addition, I attended the GR vs EP game...GR certainly has some top end talent...but EP shut them down...while GR was unable to shut down EP's top end talent...end of story.

Rapids has games vs Wayzata, undefeated WBL, Andover, 8-2 Hopkins, at Moorhead, at Duluth East, and at Hermantown. Elk River plays some tough NWSC games, but I see too much Champlin Park, Osseo, and Irondale. Slight edge to GR based on the super weak teams Elk River has left.

[alcloseshaver]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

See the schedule breakdown in Grand Rapids thread.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

The NWSC is better than you think DJ. ER is a very talented team...that simply lacks a top end goalie...but still has the talent edge in 7AA. And 5AA is a 4 deep section, not 3 deep. Anoka's win over Blaine, days after Blaine beat HM, shows they are in the mix.

In addition, I attended the GR vs EP game...GR certainly has some top end talent...but EP shut them down...while GR was unable to shut down EP's top end talent...end of story.

I watched the EP game, shut down is a bit inaccurate. Rapids dictated play in the 1st half of that game and beat themselves by not capitalizing on chances, especially Miller with a wide open net on a back door pass. EP is a better team right now. But frankly I don't give a crap about any team outside of 7AA. Rapids has 7AA to worry about, EP has 6AA to worry about. That said, Rapids lost by one goal to the 7AA favorites. Let them meet again at Amsoil Arena in February and see what happens then.

[WestMetro]

Agree with 1-9, except I still have Wayzata just below Elk because of head to head loss.

Agree with your 10-17 group, and very hard to nail down order within there.

After watching Eagles battle the Hornets last night, I want to give credit to BP, who way back in August had foresight to rank EP #6 before the Elite season began. At that time many including me might have had Eagles out of top 10 due to heavy graduation and uncertainty of Casey M ability to excel at the varsity level, and also some uncertainty about Durocher in goal. How wrong I was on those two questions. It would not surprise me to see EP move up another notch or two on Karls list at some point.

[TheHockeyDJ]

On a side topic, I noticed that in Class AA, sections 2, 3, 5, and 6 all have their quarterfinals on Thursday, Feb. 19. Looking at it now, which section do you anticipate will have the most interesting 4/5 matchup that night?

[blueblood]

Section 6 - will have 2 outstanding QF games (4v5 and 3v6). Current head to head standings are:

My prediction for Section 6 seeding:

1 and 2 = Ep & Wayzata
3 thru 6 = BSM, HF, Hopkins & Tonka
7 = AC Wings

[Sats81]

Nice work as always. Holiday tourneys should tell us a lot more.

[boblee]

Pretty generous of you to keep Grand Rapids in the top 15.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Nice to see someone else that "gets it" with Elk Rivers schedule the rest of the way. I'm very curious to see how Duluth East does in the Schwann Cup, it seems most years when they struggle early this is the time they start to pick things up.

The NWSC is better than you think DJ. ER is a very talented team...that simply lacks a top end goalie...but still has the talent edge in 7AA. And 5AA is a 4 deep section, not 3 deep. Anoka's win over Blaine, days after Blaine beat HM, shows they are in the mix.

In addition, I attended the GR vs EP game...GR certainly has some top end talent...but EP shut them down...while GR was unable to shut down EP's top end talent...end of story.

I watched the EP game, shut down is a bit inaccurate. Rapids dictated play in the 1st half of that game and beat themselves by not capitalizing on chances, especially Miller with a wide open net on a back door pass. EP is a better team right now. But frankly I don't give a crap about any team outside of 7AA. Rapids has 7AA to worry about, EP has 6AA to worry about. That said, Rapids lost by one goal to the 7AA favorites. Let them meet again at Amsoil Arena in February and see what happens then.

Dominated 6 -1 by EP. Wake up and smell the coffee DJ!