AA Rankings for 1/4/15

[karl(east)]

We’re through the holiday tournaments, most teams are hitting the halfway point in their schedules, and we can now judge the teams almost strictly on results. As I often do this time of year, I’ve added the teams’ records against top-25 opponents and a few top Class A teams after the overall records. These are rough guides, not anything definitive.

1. Lakeville North (12-0/9-0)
-Marched through St. Louis Park undefeated, and while there were tests this past week—Benilde jumped on them early, Wayzata hung in there until the end, and even struggling Eagan held them in check—they passed them all. With zero elite teams left on the schedule, it’s no stretch to start talking about an undefeated season. I may be in the minority here, but I think it’s better for them not to lose; better to believe they can do something special than drop one and allow some doubt to creep in. Though short on top-notch competition, there are a lot of decent teams left on the schedule, and they play two of those teams this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat at Eastview

2. St. Thomas Academy (10-0/5-0)
-Won the Schwan Cup with relative ease, though upsets did clear out the top 3 other teams in the field. While their road hasn’t been as hard as North’s, they’ve beaten a few quality teams along the way, and since they’re undefeated into January, they leapfrog Edina. Each of their next two weeks involves a game with Benilde, one of their top conference opponents, and a directional St. Paul. If they can get through that unscathed, they too might be a contender for a perfect regular season.
This week: Tues at #11 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Sat vs. South St. Paul

3. Edina (12-1-2/10-1-2)
-It may seem silly to be critical of a team that demolished Duluth East and handled Hill-Murray in the past week, but there were some cracks in the walls for the Hornets, as they tied Minnetonka, barely beat White Bear, and marched to the penalty box with reckless abandon. They’ve made an art of surviving those penalties, and they usually have a little midseason dip every year, but as always, the trends bear watching. They have some good time to recover from their tournaments now, with just two games in the next two weeks, though both are against high-quality opposition.
This week: Sat vs. #6 Hill-Murray

4. Elk River (11-3/6-3)
-A 4-2 win over Maple Grove might seem like a step back after an 11-4 victory the first time around, but I’d argue otherwise: for the first time all season, the Elks kept a quality opponent under 4 goals, and won a game without an offensive explosion. They followed that up with a strong win over Centennial, further underscoring the point: when this team holds down strong opposition, they’ll be tough to beat. The schedule is noticeably easier from here on out, with only four remaining opponents that I’d consider a serious threat to a team of this caliber.
This week: Sat at Champlin Park

5. Wayzata (7-4-2/5-4-2)
-The Trojans lost twice in St. Louis Park; the narrow loss to North isn’t a disappointment, but the Moorhead game is a head-scratcher. Their win over Holy Family helps in 6AA, though they’ll have to battle the Fire again this week. This team is right there with the best, but it seems like they’re just missing some little thing that might push them solidly into that group with the top three.
This week: Tues vs. #6 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #15 Holy Family

6. Hill-Murray (8-4/4-4)
-The Pioneers lost twice in the Schwan Cup, and while they’re obviously a quality team, they have yet to score a win over anyone else in this top tier, and slide toward the back of it. They have a chance to fix that this week, with visits to Wayzata and Edina.
This week: Tues at #5 Wayzata, Thurs vs. Hastings, Sat at #3 Edina

7. Eden Prairie (8-5/7-5)
-The Eagles began their Schwan Cup on a high note by beating Hill, but subsequent losses to Burnsville and Minnetonka ate away at the cushion between them and the crowded tier of teams right below. They’ve shown how dangerous they can be in some of their bigger wins, but they’ve now lost four of their last five, and one more loss will probably drive them from the top ten. Up next: a road trip to the north.
This week: Fri at Cloquet, Sat at Duluth East

8. White Bear Lake (9-2/1-1)
-This is a gut call that goes against my usual bias in favor of teams with strong schedules, but the Bears had no problems skating with Edina on Saturday, and for now I’m willing to dismiss the East Ridge loss as a trap game fluke. If they can avoid letdowns against the respectable teams they play this week, I’ll be even more of a believer.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South, Thurs at Roseville, Sat vs. Cretin-Derham Hall

9. Bemidji (12-1-1/2-1)
-If we use that logic for White Bear, we might as well use it for Bemidji. The Lumberjacks kept their beat going with four more wins, a couple against decent Class A competition. They aren’t blowing these teams out, but they seem to be in pretty good control of the games, and that’s usually enough. This week is a light and easy one; next week is the one that will likely make or break their state ranking.
This week: Tues vs. Crookston

10. Burnsville (6-6-1/3-6-1)
-The Blaze lead off this long stretch of 5- and 6-loss decent teams that populate this part of the rankings, mostly by virtue of their head-to-head win over Benilde. They had a strong Schwan Cup, with a comfortable win over Eastview, a win over Eden Prairie, and a pretty good fight against St. Thomas. They’re now done with their tough nonconference slate, and may be able to settle into a rhythm against South Suburban squads.
This week: Thurs at Shakopee, Sat vs. Lakeville South

11. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-5-2/4-5-2)
-A comeback from 3-0 down versus Prior Lake may have sparked the Red Knights, who also gave Lakeville North a decent fight and beat a Holy Family team they’d previously tied. They haven’t thrived against a tough early schedule, but they’ve survived, and after the first of two with St. Thomas they open play in their new conference, in which they should be heavily favored.
This week: Tues vs. #2 St. Thomas Academy, Thurs at Chanhassen, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

12. Blaine (6-5/4-3)
-Lost a tight one to East Grand Forks in their lone game this past week. It’s not a bad loss, but it doesn’t help them stand out in this crowded middle tier, either. While just as dangerous—if not more so—than the teams right above them, they’ve been a bit too erratic. They play a couple of the better NWSC teams this week, including Maple Grove, who beat them the first time around. The winner should be the favorite for the top seed in 5AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Andover, Sat vs. Maple Grove

13. Moorhead (7-4-2/2-4-2)
-The Spuds join the long list of teams that has been frustratingly inconsistent so far; their trip to St. Louis Park included a huge win over Wayzata, a disastrous outing against North, and a loss to Prior Lake. They had some discipline issues as well, though they still managed to beat Bloomington Jefferson on Saturday. The schedule stays busy this week, as they face undefeated Alexandria and then make another road trip to the Cities.
This week: Tues at Alexandria, Fri at Centennial, Sat at Breck

14. Minnetonka (6-5-1/3-4-1)
-The Skippers made plenty of noise in the Schwan Cup, scoring a tie against Edina and a big win over Eden Prairie. The lopsided loss to St. Thomas shows they’re not a sudden certain contender, but they will be very tough down the stretch. A similarly ranked team awaits this week in Maple Grove.
This week: Tues at Maple Grove, Sat vs. Chanhassen

15. Holy Family (6-5-2/3-4-2)
-The Fire got a nice win over Prior Lake, but losses to two 6AA opponents in the St. Louis Park tournament keeps them from climbing at all. They get a second shot at Wayzata on Saturday, which may be their last real chance to grab a high seed in the section.
This week: Tues vs. Delano, Sat at #5 Wayzata

On the Bubble

Prior Lake (7-4-1/3-4-1)
-The Lakers show how fickle these rankings can be, tumbling from the top ten after a 3-loss week. For a second straight year, a holiday tournament has been their undoing. Still, they can’t be written off yet; they did beat Moorhead, and lost narrowly to Benilde and Farmington. This week brings the ultimate test against Lakeville North, followed by a game with Apple Valley.

Maple Grove (5-6/2-6)
-Giving up seven fewer goals against Elk River than in the first game is an improvement, but the Crimson still lost, and are battling to get back to .500. Two games against 10-15-ranked opposition this week will be big for them—is this team a genuinely competitive one that’s been saddled with a tough schedule, or are they a step behind the rest? Minnetonka and Blaine should help us out there.

Farmington (10-3/1-3)
-On the rise some after a win over Prior Lake and continued easy pickings against the teams they should beat. They can solidify their top-20 standing with a win over Eastview this week.

Centennial (7-5/2-5)
-The Cougars had a nice start to their week with a triumph in the Schwan Cup Silver, but a lopsided loss to Elk River keeps them from making any headway up the rankings.

Eastview (6-5/2-4)
-The Lightning didn’t have a great Schwan Cup Gold debut, but they saved some face with a win over Duluth East on the last day; they enter the top 20 by virtue of their head-to-head result against Lakeville South. Farmington and Lakeville North are up this week.

Lakeville South (5-4-1/1-4-1)
-A loss to Breck derailed their chances in the Schwan Cup Silver. A three-game week including White Bear and Burnsville should test them.

Duluth East (5-5-1/1-5)
-The Hounds’ gimpy start continued with a rough Schwan Cup, though they did scrape out a win over Hopkins to keep themselves relevant. They’ve got a huge week ahead of them versus rivals Denfeld and Grand Rapids, plus a visit from Eden Prairie.

Hopkins (10-3-1/1-1-1)
-The Royals drop some after a Schwan Cup Bronze loss to Anoka, but acquitted themselves fairly well against 7AA teams, taking Duluth East to overtime and tying Grand Rapids. They play just once this week, and it’s on the road against Jefferson.

Grand Rapids (7-8-1/1-6-1)
-Got some wins to get up off the mat and shore up their standing in the section, but a loss to Mahtomedi and a tie with Hopkins keeps the Thunderhawks where they are in the rankings. They also have a big week ahead of them, with a visit to Hermantown before the pivotal 7AA clash with Duluth East.

Cretin-Derham Hall (7-4-2/0-3)
-Seem to be getting on a roll now, albeit against unremarkable competition. A key SEC battle with White Bear looms Saturday.

[WestMetro]

Agree on 1-8. Although I could be persuaded to move Wayzata down a ways until I see if they beat Hill.

Virtually impossible to order 9-15, and for that matter 9-20. For example , if going on results only, shouldnt Hopkins and Farmington be right up there with Bemidji?

Anyway, should be interesting to see how the two statistical based rankings compare to your rankings this week.

(Regarding Prior Lake. They beat Moorhead even though 2 key injuries in Harris and Hanson. I wonder if those guys will be healthy for Lakeville North. Also, were there any Prior Lake game misconducts coming out of the Spud slugfest?)

[karl(east)]

Virtually impossible to order 9-15, and for that matter 9-20. For example , if going on results only, shouldnt Hopkins and Farmington be right up there with Bemidji?

To answer this one...Hopkins just lost to DE and tied GR, so it's hard to argue they should be noticeably higher than those two. They have a good goalie, but don't seem to have the skating depth of a top-20 team.

Farmington, maybe, but the win over depleted PL was their first genuine quality win of the year. Other than that, they're just riding a close loss to North in November. Still waiting to see them play a few more big games.

I'll agree Bemidji is a bit of a stretch, but their loss and tie were a long time ago, and they do have 2 certifiable quality wins since (Moorhead, EGF). The week after this coming one--Moorhead, at EGF, Hermantown--is pretty much going to decide their ranking fate.

I could see dropping Wayzata further, but it's hard to argue that the teams immediately behind them have done much lately to justify moving them ahead of the Trojans. Wayzata-Hill this week will be helpful.

[karl(east)]

In case you don't get enough of my blather in the rankings, here's some more in blog post form: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/01/05/hal ... 2014-2015/

[GOALIEPOPS]

Agree on 1-8. Although I could be persuaded to move Wayzata down a ways until I see if they beat Hill.

Virtually impossible to order 9-15, and for that matter 9-20. For example , if going on results only, shouldnt Hopkins and Farmington be right up there with Bemidji?

Anyway, should be interesting to see how the two statistical based rankings compare to your rankings this week.

(Regarding Prior Lake. They beat Moorhead even though 2 key injuries in Harris and Hanson. I wonder if those guys will be healthy for Lakeville North. Also, were there any Prior Lake game misconducts coming out of the Spud slugfest?)

to my understanding there were 4 but that's 2nd party. It sounds to me like the "slugfest" could have been avoided if the officials had taken control of the game.

[WarmUpTheBus]

Agree on 1-8. Although I could be persuaded to move Wayzata down a ways until I see if they beat Hill.

Virtually impossible to order 9-15, and for that matter 9-20. For example , if going on results only, shouldnt Hopkins and Farmington be right up there with Bemidji?

Anyway, should be interesting to see how the two statistical based rankings compare to your rankings this week.

(Regarding Prior Lake. They beat Moorhead even though 2 key injuries in Harris and Hanson. I wonder if those guys will be healthy for Lakeville North. Also, were there any Prior Lake game misconducts coming out of the Spud slugfest?)

to my understanding there were 4 but that's 2nd party. It sounds to me like the "slugfest" could have been avoided if the officials had taken control of the game.

Yes, it was all the referees' fault. The players and coaches were just innocent bystanders

[Tenoverpar]

"were there any Prior Lake game misconducts coming out of the Spud slugfest?"

led to

"Yes, it was all the referees' fault. The players and coaches were just innocent bystanders"

someone's got anger issues

[GOALIEPOPS]

Agree on 1-8. Although I could be persuaded to move Wayzata down a ways until I see if they beat Hill.

Virtually impossible to order 9-15, and for that matter 9-20. For example , if going on results only, shouldnt Hopkins and Farmington be right up there with Bemidji?

Anyway, should be interesting to see how the two statistical based rankings compare to your rankings this week.

(Regarding Prior Lake. They beat Moorhead even though 2 key injuries in Harris and Hanson. I wonder if those guys will be healthy for Lakeville North. Also, were there any Prior Lake game misconducts coming out of the Spud slugfest?)

to my understanding there were 4 but that's 2nd party. It sounds to me like the "slugfest" could have been avoided if the officials had taken control of the game.

Yes, it was all the referees' fault. The players and coaches were just innocent bystanders

Pretty sure that's not what I said. Clearly the kids fighting take the blame and sit games for it but you have to be pretty naïve to say the way a game is called doesn't lead to things getting out of hand.

[goldy313]

Couldn't resist a shot or two at Farmington could you Karl?

Mitch has the Tigers with a stronger schedule than either White Bear Lake or Bemidji....... No, no bias at all......

[WestMetro]

A very good read Karl, right on for all AA comments and perspectives!!
(OK , perhaps a little overhype for Bemidji.)

In case you don't get enough of my blather in the rankings, here's some more in blog post form: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/01/05/hal ... 2014-2015/

I want to repost one of your sentences because this fact is greatly underreported, with all the press being given to LVN, STA and ED.

"The Wayzata Trojans are slogging their way through what might be the toughest schedule the state has ever seen "

If any reader has ever seen a tougher 25 game schedule in recent decade high school hockey, we'd all like to know about.

[youwannaknowme]

I would say Burnsville's schedule has been pretty tough: LN, BSM, Wayzata, Edina, Hill, St. Thomas, Eden Prairie, Prior Lake

[OTB987]

MyHockeyRankings has the following teams with the toughest schedule through 12/31:

#1. Eden Prairie - 95.20
#2. Benilde - 95.12
#3. Burnsville - 94.98
#4. Hill - 94.66
#5. Wayzata - 94.64

LVN was 6th followed by MG and Edina.

Over the last 10 games the following teams have had the toughest schedule:

#1. Benilde - 95.52
#2. Eden Prairie - 95.37
#3. Burnsville - 94.82
#4. Hill - 94.66
#5. LVN - 94.62

Followed by Edina, MG and Wayzata.

[WestMetro]

No, I think Karl and I mean from Thanksgiving all the way through Mid February. Conference and non conference. Not a single gimme the whole way, even Hopkins because of Kuemichel

[karl(east)]

Exactly, WestMetro. I'm looking at the whole season when judging Wayzata's SOS, not just the games played to date, which is what the computerized rankings do. I agree that Burnsville, LVN, and BSM are on par with them so far, but they all get a little weaker down the stretch with conference play. Eden Prairie, on the other hand, is definitely on Wayzata's level.

This is why I'm being fairly forgiving when those two lose...when you play that sort of schedule, you're going to have a few hiccups. Even though they're piling up a few losses, they still have winning records against other top-25 teams, which, as the records show, is not easy to do.

From January on, the bread and butter of these rankings has always been quality wins. If you're collecting those wins, you'll move up.

[karl(east)]

Apparently I'm in a blogging mood this week. Some thoughts on the value of rankings like mine and HSHW's that are done by stupid, biased humans vs. "objective" computer rankings and LPH: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/01/07/in- ... jectivity/

[MNHockeyFan]

Apparently I'm in a blogging mood this week. Some thoughts on the value of rankings like mine and HSHW's that are done by stupid, biased humans vs. "objective" computer rankings and LPH: http://apatientcycle.com/2015/01/07/in- ... jectivity/

Very interesting and well-written article, Karl. I've always had the same thoughts about computer rankings as what you said here:
"For starters, let’s stop trying to pretend the computers are 'objective.' They’re not. Sure, they don’t play favorites, care nothing for tradition or coaching, or for some of the excuses one often hears out of a losing team. They can see everything, which no human can do. But somewhere behind it all, a human has to decide how much weight to give to each of the results, and at what point we stop caring whether a team wins by 6 or 8 or 10 goals, and how much to value recent games versus old games, and so on."
Exactly! Change the weightings, and you get a different result - but how do you determine how much to give each one to produce the most accurate rankings? Certainly a team's results over its last five games say more about it's current strength than its first five games, but HOW MUCH more? And how much (if any) weight should you have the computer give to goal differential? Does your coach like to run up the score or does he utilize different tactics to not run up the score? Maybe your two most impressive wins came when the other teams' two best players were out of the lineup for some reason? Lots of variables that are hard or impossible to program into an algorithm.

Anyway, well done and keep up the good work!

[LSQRANK]

The key to a good weighting algorithm is it needs to be a reasonable model of a game situation which is applied consistently across the entire data set. AI techniques can be utilized as well. Most other ranking systems only use raw score due to how the data is collected, which is not a very good model by itself because other factor come into play when evaluating the overall performance between two hockey teams on any given contest. Below is the latest AA rankings extracted from the MN/WI/ND combined scores

Code: Select all

LSQRANK         Team SEC CLS Abrev   Score    GD    avgSS    PPc     PKc    G  (W-L-T)   percent
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1       LakevilleN  1 AA LVN       -0.30   0.0     0.75   30.6    92.0   12  (12- 0-0) 1.000  
  2            Edina  2 AA EDN       57.74   0.6     0.76   20.4    86.4   15  (12- 1-2) 0.867  
  3      SaintThomas  3 AA STA      132.41   1.3     0.70   41.2    84.4   11  (11- 0-0) 1.000  
  4          Wayzata  6 AA WYZ      146.90   1.5     0.77   23.9    87.5   14  ( 7- 5-2) 0.571  
  5    WhiteBearLake  4 AA WBL      170.77   1.7     0.63   23.4    81.5   12  (10- 2-0) 0.833  
  7      EdenPrairie  6 AA EP       213.05   2.1     0.76   37.1    76.1   13  ( 8- 5-0) 0.615  
  8              BSM  6 AA BSM      236.82   2.4     0.80   19.0    72.9   13  ( 5- 6-2) 0.462  
  9         Moorhead  8 AA MOR      252.93   2.5     0.72   15.2    81.8   14  ( 7- 5-2) 0.571  
 11          Bemidji  8 AA BMJ      259.19   2.6     0.58   29.3    93.0   15  (13- 1-1) 0.900  
 12       Minnetonka  6 AA MTK      262.62   2.6     0.76   23.9    78.3   13  ( 7- 5-1) 0.577  
 13       HillMurray  4 AA HM       263.31   2.6     0.74   30.9    80.4   13  ( 9- 4-0) 0.692  
 14       Burnsville  2 AA BNV      267.71   2.7     0.78   15.7    93.2   13  ( 6- 6-1) 0.500  
 16         ElkRiver  7 AA ER       271.47   2.7     0.71   35.7    69.0   14  (11- 3-0) 0.786  
 17       Farmington  1 AA FAM      272.23   2.7     0.62   37.1    89.2   13  (10- 3-0) 0.769  
 18       HolyFamily  6 AA HF       286.19   2.9     0.74   28.4    83.6   14  ( 6- 6-2) 0.500  
 20          Cloquet  7 AA CLQ      301.42   3.0     0.59   21.2    80.6   13  ( 7- 6-0) 0.538  
 21              CDH  3 AA CDH      309.19   3.1     0.66   25.5    88.6   13  ( 8- 4-1) 0.654  
 22      GrandRapids  7 AA GR       318.13   3.2     0.70   21.0    69.6   17  ( 7- 9-1) 0.441  
 23        PriorLake  2 AA PRL      318.15   3.2     0.70   19.6    78.6   12  ( 7- 4-1) 0.625  
 24       Stillwater  4 AA STW      318.83   3.2     0.63   19.0    83.0   13  ( 9- 4-0) 0.692  
 26       Centennial  5 AA CEN      322.90   3.2     0.69   24.2    81.1   12  ( 7- 5-0) 0.583  
 27       MapleGrove  5 AA MG       334.92   3.3     0.71   25.6    67.5   12  ( 5- 7-0) 0.417  
 28           Blaine  5 AA BLA      336.12   3.4     0.70   28.0    73.0   11  ( 6- 5-0) 0.545  
 29       LakevilleS  1 AA LVS      336.81   3.4     0.70   26.5    77.8   11  ( 4- 5-2) 0.455  
 31        BloomJeff  2 AA BLJ      349.86   3.5     0.67   22.7    84.9   13  ( 7- 6-0) 0.538  
 36         Rosemont  3 AA RSM      376.87   3.8     0.71   25.0    65.5   13  ( 3-10-0) 0.231  
 38       MoundsView  4 AA MSV      379.99   3.8     0.63   24.2    87.9   12  ( 6- 5-1) 0.542  
 39         Eastview  3 AA EVW      385.05   3.9     0.66   24.2    84.6   12  ( 7- 5-0) 0.583  
 41          Hopkins  6 AA HOP      389.97   3.9     0.57   25.9    88.2   14  (10- 3-1) 0.750  
 42           Roseau  8 AA RSU      396.13   4.0     0.59   21.2    81.4   13  ( 7- 6-0) 0.538  
 44       HolyAngels  2 AA HA       398.07   4.0     0.62   22.6    75.4   12  ( 7- 5-0) 0.583  
 45            Anoka  5 AA ANK      398.87   4.0     0.61   11.8    83.3   12  ( 7- 5-0) 0.583  
 47       DuluthEast  7 AA DUL      401.03   4.0     0.68   11.6    83.7   12  ( 6- 5-1) 0.542  
 49        EastRidge  3 AA ERG      408.94   4.1     0.62   14.6    83.3   12  ( 5- 6-1) 0.458  
 59        StMichael  7 AA SMA      431.77   4.3     0.55   20.5    84.8   11  ( 8- 3-0) 0.727  
 61        Roseville  4 AA ROS      437.48   4.4     0.61   29.3    86.4   13  ( 7- 6-0) 0.538  
 63            Osseo  5 AA OSS      446.78   4.5     0.53   22.9    80.4   11  ( 7- 4-0) 0.636  
 67          Andover  7 AA AND      455.04   4.6     0.66   21.6    70.7   10  ( 3- 6-1) 0.350  
 70    RochesterMayo  1 AA RMY      460.39   4.6     0.48   24.3    85.4   12  (10- 2-0) 0.833  
 71       ForestLake  7 AA FL       467.48   4.7     0.64   17.6    83.3   12  ( 4- 7-1) 0.375  
 74           Rogers  5 AA ROG      473.28   4.7     0.54    2.8    94.4   14  ( 5- 9-0) 0.357  
 81           Tartan  4 AA TAR      486.29   4.9     0.56   25.6    80.0   14  ( 7- 6-1) 0.536  
 85         Hastings  3 AA HAS      488.23   4.9     0.61   19.6    73.2   14  ( 4- 9-1) 0.321  
 87       Chanhassan  2 AA CHN      491.72   4.9     0.59   18.0    68.9   13  ( 3- 7-3) 0.346  
 89         Woodbury  3 AA WBY      497.52   5.0     0.59   22.7    86.5   13  ( 6- 6-1) 0.500  
 90            Eagan  3 AA EAG      502.61   5.0     0.66   10.2    57.1   12  ( 2- 9-1) 0.208  
 91          Buffalo  8 AA BUF      505.98   5.1     0.60   10.4    76.3   13  ( 6- 7-0) 0.462  
 92  ArmstrongCooper  6 AA ARM      507.12   5.1     0.51   19.2    83.7   12  ( 7- 4-1) 0.625  
 99         Brainard  8 AA BRN      523.41   5.2     0.58   19.6    70.7   13  ( 5- 8-0) 0.385  
104    RochesterCENT  1 AA RCT      536.16   5.4     0.47   23.3    86.0   14  ( 6- 5-3) 0.536  
105      RochesterJM  1 AA RJM      536.64   5.4     0.52   14.7    85.7   13  ( 6- 7-0) 0.462
111         Owatonna  1 AA OWT      541.55   5.4     0.54   20.6    70.5   12  ( 4- 7-1) 0.375  
116     ChamplinPark  5 AA CHP      549.68   5.5     0.61   14.3    81.4   13  ( 3-10-0) 0.231  
128      NorthStPaul  4 AA NSP      590.41   5.9     0.56    4.2    75.0   13  ( 3-10-0) 0.231  
129      AppleValley  3 AA APV      594.32   5.9     0.62   11.8    81.0   12  ( 4- 6-2) 0.417  
135         Irondale  4 AA IRO      613.08   6.1     0.54    8.7    88.6   11  ( 2- 8-1) 0.227  
137       RiverLakes  8 AA RL       615.10   6.2     0.44   17.9    79.1   13  ( 8- 3-2) 0.692  
139           ParkCG  3 AA PCG      617.73   6.2     0.56   11.7    80.0   13  ( 2-10-1) 0.192  
142        StFrancis  7 AA STF      621.79   6.2     0.56   19.4    70.3   12  ( 0-12-0) 0.000  
146      StCloudTech  8 AA STC      627.39   6.3     0.53    6.4    86.2   14  ( 3- 9-2) 0.286  
148             MAML  8 AA MAM      630.57   6.3     0.46   13.2    63.6   15  ( 4-11-0) 0.267  
158         Shakopee  2 AA SHK      657.30   6.6     0.57   18.4    75.0   12  ( 2- 9-1) 0.208  
171        Cambridge  7 AA CAM      687.85   6.9     0.42   10.5    76.8   13  ( 6- 7-0) 0.462  
177       CoonRapids  5 AA CR       728.23   7.3     0.52    6.3    80.0   12  ( 1-10-1) 0.125  
185      DodgeCounty  1 AA DC       773.67   7.7     0.37   13.0    79.4   14  ( 4-10-0) 0.286  
202          BigLake  8 AA BIG      896.88   9.0     0.33   11.1    78.4   14  ( 2-12-0) 0.143  

[WestMetro]

Yes, I think we all look at the various statistical methods and results.

But next Sunday, Karl will know that Wayzata's captain Stevens has a broken ankle and is out for 4-6 weeks, which none of the history based statistical methods can factor in.

[WestMetro]

Already got a note to correct: a broken Wrist, not Ankle