Class A Rankings 1-11-15

[pekyman]

HSHW, you do a great job and I agree with your rankings for the most part, but sometimes I think you get a little caught up on the scores of each game... A Cathedral loss 5-2 to Hermantown while getting outshot by 20 does not seem better than a EGF 3-0 loss while the shots were pretty much even.

In addition, the 3rd goal by HT was an empty net.

[BigTen]

EGF should be ranked above St Cloud Cathedral. They have defeated them head to head, they have a better record, and have a few more impressive victories than the Crusaders. Strength of schedule is also in EGF's favor.

[HShockeywatcher]

HSHW, you do a great job and I agree with your rankings for the most part, but sometimes I think you get a little caught up on the scores of each game... A Cathedral loss 5-2 to Hermantown while getting outshot by 20 does not seem better than a EGF 3-0 loss while the shots were pretty much even.

The goals scored in a game is virtually everything I use to compare teams (and always has been).
SOG, by itself, doesn't specifically tell you anything.
The point of the game is to score goals. How you do that is up to you. The way I can be the most objective and consistent week to week, year to year, is to use the scores of the games played.

Compare a 0-2 loss (since the 3rd was an empty netter) to a 2-5 loss:
Similar margin in both games. One team allowed the opponent to score fewer goals but didn't manage to score any, while the other team allowed more goals while scoring a couple of their own.
Everyone will have their own opinion, but mine is that 0 is bad. It's super hard to compare since you can't multiple it and make it bigger; who's to say you'd score at all given 10 periods? Maybe this team just has your number defensively.

Like I've said already, it's entirely possible EGF is the 2nd best team in the state; they're still the defending state champs, have most of their core back from last year, though they did lose some key parts, and their only Class A loss is to the #1 team. When you get shut out but that team, though, and two other quality teams lost to them by a similar margin and scored two more goals than you, it's hard to put you up there.

There's a good case that can be made to have EGF, Mahtomedi or Alexandria at #2. I'm not convinced one way or another yet.

EGF should be ranked above St Cloud Cathedral. They have defeated them head to head, they have a better record, and have a few more impressive victories than the Crusaders. Strength of schedule is also in EGF's favor.

The EGF game was Cathedral's second of the season, when they started the year 0-3 and have since gone 10-2 scoring twice in each of their losses. It's this time in the season that games earlier in the season mean less and less. Yes, I would use the game to rank two teams if they both made it to state, but when comparing to all teams as of today more recent games against quality opponents is a better indicator imo.
They play Breck, Orono and Delano in their next 3 so they will either earn their ranking or fall over the next couple weeks.

[TTpuckster]

I guess I shouldn't make too big of a thing out of the #1 EGF goalie being out.
Since the back-up shout out Roseau last night, 8 - 0.
He was also in the nets when EGF beat St. Cloud Cathedral 6 - 2 early in the year.
He just had 1 bad game against Grand Forks Red River, but has looked good in every other game.

[ted2you]

No way they are the 6th best team in class A. I would have said that before the Roseau game as well. They are inconsistent and the loss of their top 4 D'men hurt them. The Grand Forks Red River game is the sticking piece in slotting EGF. Three goals on their first three shots and a team that started to press facing a hot goal tender can explain it, but does it excuse it? EGF lacks discipline on the ice for my taste. They take too many penalties at the wrong times. Its almost as if they feel they have to dominate every game physically, when they have more than enough talent to win. EGF has periodic power outages, last season as well as this. But here is where the #6 argument doesn't wash with me. Early or late in the year, EGF beat Cathedral and the fact they weren't playing good hockey can't be that much of an excuse. EGF beat Delano, Breck, Blaine, Warroad. If your supposition is that Marshall is better than EGF and a tie with Mahtomedi makes them both better than EGF, you lose me. EGF lost to Hermantown, and Bemidiji, I suppose you could say they weren't playing well at that time, but they are both well above average teams. In the end it will be settled on the ice, but Alexandria, Cathedral, Marshall, and Mahtomedi will not be on the ice for the last game of the season, it will be EGF and Hermantown. It will be fun to see who has the biggest target on their back.

[pekyman]

Let's Play Hockey
Jan 14

1 HERMANTOWN (10)
2 Duluth Marshall
3 East Grand Forks
4 Mahtomedi
5 Alexandria
6 Breck
7 St. Paul Academy
8 St. Cloud Cathedral
9 Thief River Falls
10 Duluth Denfeld
11 Delano/Rockford
12 Warroad
13 St. Cloud Apollo
14 Fergus Falls
15 Luverne
16 New Prague
17 Orono
18 Sartell-St. Stephen
19 Detroit Lakes
20 Bloomington Kennedy

[HShockeywatcher]

Cathedral lost to Breck in OT so they will drop at least a spot.
How do people think Cathedral compares to Delano?

Mahtomedi hasn't lost to a Class A team yet and will likely get to state (assuming they make it) with two losses to Hill Murray, two losses to St Thomas, a tie with Duluth Marshall and a bunch of wins. Are they #2 if Hermantown makes it?

Where is Alexandria in all of this mix? How are they compared to Mahtomedi? How bout Marshall?
They have a 4 game week next week capped off with hosting Bemidji, then they finish the season with 7 games against 7 teams with 1 currently winning record between them. Even if they were to lose the Bemidji game, 23-1-1 is still impressive.

How bout Denfeld and St Paul Academy?
SPA beat a very good Breck team and only has losses to Mahtomedi and Denfeld, but Denfeld has close losses to Hermantown, Cathedral, Duluth East, and Bemidji while SPA is their only notable win.

Or Apollo?
They tied Alexandria and Bemidji early, lost a couple close section games and have won their last 9 but they best team in that stretch has been Orono.

What about the 5 spots beyond 15? Anyone not being mentioned who should be?

[hockey9011]

Cathedral lost to Breck in OT so they will drop at least a spot.
How do people think Cathedral compares to Delano?

Mahtomedi hasn't lost to a Class A team yet and will likely get to state (assuming they make it) with two losses to Hill Murray, two losses to St Thomas, a tie with Duluth Marshall and a bunch of wins. Are they #2 if Hermantown makes it?

Where is Alexandria in all of this mix? How are they compared to Mahtomedi? How bout Marshall?
They have a 4 game week next week capped off with hosting Bemidji, then they finish the season with 7 games against 7 teams with 1 currently winning record between them. Even if they were to lose the Bemidji game, 23-1-1 is still impressive.

How bout Denfeld and St Paul Academy?
SPA beat a very good Breck team and only has losses to Mahtomedi and Denfeld, but Denfeld has close losses to Hermantown, Cathedral, Duluth East, and Bemidji while SPA is their only notable win.

Or Apollo?
They tied Alexandria and Bemidji early, lost a couple close section games and have won their last 9 but they best team in that stretch has been Orono.

What about the 5 spots beyond 15? Anyone not being mentioned who should be?

fergus had a bad loss to St. Cloud tech today. I see them dropping at least a spot or two

[HShockeywatcher]

fergus had a bad loss to St. Cloud tech today. I see them dropping at least a spot or two

The Otters suffered their first bad loss of the year, so they will drop a couple spots.
Any other thoughts?

[hockey9011]

fergus had a bad loss to St. Cloud tech today. I see them dropping at least a spot or two

The Otters suffered their first bad loss of the year, so they will drop a couple spots.
Any other thoughts?

They also tied a weak brainerd team this week that Apollo and Sartell just beat by 4 and 5 respectively.. So I see fergus switching with Sartell to be the 5th best team in 6A as of lately. Cathedral drops a few as breck moves up a few.
TRF switches with Warroad after that win this week.. Curious to see what Warroad looks like when Roth and Jaycox get back in the lineup. tip Top of the rankings stay the same unless D Marshall can beat Hermantown tonight, although I still wouldn't think that's enough to switch those two

[HShockeywatcher]

fergus had a bad loss to St. Cloud tech today. I see them dropping at least a spot or two

The Otters suffered their first bad loss of the year, so they will drop a couple spots.
Any other thoughts?

They also tied a weak brainerd team this week that Apollo and Sartell just beat by 4 and 5 respectively.. So I see fergus switching with Sartell to be the 5th best team in 6A as of lately. Cathedral drops a few as breck moves up a few.
TRF switches with Warroad after that win this week.. Curious to see what Warroad looks like when Roth and Jaycox get back in the lineup. tip Top of the rankings stay the same unless D Marshall can beat Hermantown tonight, although I still wouldn't think that's enough to switch those two

The most important thing is the result and who's won most recently imo. Had Hermantown lost tonight, they'd move down, but nope, they kept it together and won again. Smooth sailing for them from here on out.