AA Rankings for 12/20/15

[karl(east)]

The top two spots became much clearer this past week; most of the rest, not so much, though I do feel pretty good about the top 15 teams listed here actually being the state’s top 15 at the moment. Your rankings:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-0)
-One spot, at least, is not in dispute: the Red Knights stay on top after picking off another top-5 team this week. They’re not doing it in convincing fashion, and I still think there is cause for concern that other teams will pass them as they get everything together. But they’re also learning how to win these close ones, and that can be more valuable than having all the talent. Just one game this week, and it comes against a mid-table team in the section.
This week: Tues at Hopkins

2. Eden Prairie (7-1)
-Not much doubt here either, as the Eagles rolled through the Edina Tournament to win three games there for the first time ever. They gave up nine goals in the process, which is a lot, but they have the firepower to overwhelm most anyone in their way, and for now, that’s enough. Another big test looms this week.
This week: Wed at #8 Blaine

3. Stillwater (8-0)
-I remain very skeptical of this ranking, and this past week’s even game with Bloomington Jefferson did nothing to ease that. Still, no one else has the credentials to claim this spot at the moment, so here are the Ponies.

4. Wayzata (8-2)
-The Trojans got past a good Holy Family team; outside of one bad weekend up north, they’ve taken care of everyone in their way. (How baffling does that East loss look now?) The Buffalo win was a bit tight, but they’re certainly playing the style of hockey they want to play, and in that, they’re a nose ahead of the rest of this top ten mess. They now get a St. Thomas Academy team that has been off to a very slow start.
This week: Tues at St. Thomas Academy

5. Lakeville North (4-2)
-Once again, the Panthers are getting some benefit of the doubt, but after twin 6-0 wins over South Suburban teams this past week, they seem to be going in the right direction defensively. Lakeville South’s win over Farmington has made their life in 1AA a bit easier, and they can strengthen their claim on a top seed with a win this week.
This week: Wed vs. Lakeville South

6. Prior Lake (6-1)
-Time to give this team some recognition: they’re flattening everyone in their way since a season-opening loss to Eden Prairie, with a goal margin of 37-4 in six straight wins. There’s no real signature win in there yet, but there is a lot to like. They have a decent chance to keep that gaudy mark going this coming week.
This week: Tues vs. Chanhassen

7. Bemidji (6-0-2)
-It wasn’t a terribly pretty week for the Lumberjacks, as they tied East Grand Forks and had a tight game with Brainerd, but they did remain undefeated.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau

8. Blaine (7-2)
-The Bengals’ lack of depth reared its head in the Anoka loss. The tight game with Benilde still shows they can compete with anyone when at their best, but this team’s flaws are not hard to see. They need some quality zone time and pressure out of their lower lines, even if they don’t score much. Their Wednesday game will showcase some of the finest talent in the state.
This week: Wed vs. #2 Eden Prairie

9. Edina (6-4)
-By Edina standards this was a weak Holiday Classic, but they still beat a decent Elk River team and gave Eden Prairie the best game of anyone. Given their youth, continued lumps are likely. But not this week.
This week: Sat at St. Louis Park

10. Holy Family (7-3)
-Coughed up six goals to Wayzata, which sets them back temporarily. The Fire are at bay until the St. Louis Park Tournament next week.
This week: Idle

11. Elk River (6-3)
-The Elks’ big win over Grand Rapids gave them the one result they needed in the Edina Classic, and throws 7AA into total turmoil. They have their shortcomings, but have done a pretty good job of playing with quality competition and sticking to the classic Elks style. With a little more offensive output, they’ll be deadly. A win over Centennial will push them even further upward.
This week: Tues vs. Centennial

12. Grand Rapids (6-4-1)
-This weekend showed both the Thunderhawks’ promise and their shortcomings, as they had a dominant period to take down Edina and fell flat against Elk River. The Eden Prairie game hit the middle ground, and probably best reflects this team: plenty of firepower, but some questions on defense, and a need to prove they can sustain efforts over the course of three periods. For all their flashes to date, they’ve still only won just over half their games, though they are now through with the toughest part of the schedule.
This week: Idle

13. Minnetonka (5-3)
-A convincing win over Hermantown helps the Skippers’ case, and they gave Blaine a good game as well. They’re moving in the right direction, and will start to climb the ladder if they continue to play this way. A middling Jefferson team is up next.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson

14. Hill-Murray (6-2)
-The Pioneers took care of a good Class A team in Mahtomedi, then won a couple of easier conference games. They still aren’t aweing anyone with their performances, but they’re taking care of business, and will look to continue to do so on Tuesday.
This week: Tues at Tartan

15. Centennial (6-2)
-The Cougars took care of business this past week, taking down to teams in the tier just below them. With wins over Maple Grove and Anoka and Blaine losing to the Tornadoes, they’re still in the conversation for the top spot in the section. Elk River gives them another quality conference test this week.
This week: Tues at #11 Elk River

The Next Ten

Anoka (4-3)
-The Tornadoes scored a big win over Blaine this past week, which vaults them back into the rankings conversation. Their losses were all competitive games against quality teams, and there is some real talent here. They’ll look to avoid a letdown this Tuesday against an Andover team that’s done a good job of being a pest to a bunch of teams.

Burnsville (3-4-1)
-The Blaze plug along in Blaze-like fashion, but beating teams they should beat and losing to teams that are better than them. This ranking rewards their consistency, and shows how much turmoil there has been just outside of the top 15.

St. Thomas Academy (5-2-1)
-Took care of some weaker opponents this past week, but we’re still waiting for the Cadets to do something against a relevant team. They seem to apply plenty of pressure, but the goals don’t always follow. Since they’re young, that will probably come.

Farmington (5-3-1)
-The loss to Lakeville South sets the Tigers back a few spots, but they’ve done enough otherwise to stay in the top 20 conversation.

Moorhead (4-3)
-Their losses are all lopsided games against quality teams, but a win over Jefferson is a respectable result. They can shore up their 8AA seeding position if they beat Brainerd Tuesday.

Brainerd (4-1-1)
-Gave Bemidji a decent fight, which keeps them in ranking consideration. A big game with Moorhead looms this week.

Maple Grove (4-6)
-No good wins, but no bad losses either, and most of them have been competitive. It’s now their turn to take a crack at a limping Duluth East.

Bloomington Jefferson (4-5)
-Like Maple Grove, they lose to teams they should lose to and beat teams they should beat. The tight game with Stillwater is encouraging, though that may be more of a commentary on Stillwater than it is on the Jags. After a tough game with Minnetonka they play St. Paul Johnson in the South St. Paul Premier Tournament, which starts Saturday and wraps into next week.

Duluth East (4-4)
-The Hounds have been in freefall; the Centennial loss wasn’t too shocking, but they now have three ugly ones on their record. They simply haven’t come together yet. Patience.

Lakeville South (2-3)
-The Cougars showed some life this week after a rocky start, as they steamrolled Shakopee and upset Farmington. Now they get a crack at their crosstown rival, where they’ll look to keep it going.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Thanks again for the great read and look forward to the podcast on Cold Omaha tonight.

[WestMetro]

Good writeup, thanks for your time every week for research and authorship.

Agree with 1 to 4, and agree with Stillwater comments.

A couple of differences of opinion below:

Despite Anoka loss, I would leave Blaine in top 5 at No. 5.

I would keep GR in lower top 10 instead of PL. Due to their strength of schedule they have played versus a few of the others, and also their win over Edina at difficult Braemar environment.

Overall, I agree with your top 15.

Biggest surprises for me recently. Collapse of Duluth East, its completely unexplained. By contrast, the rise of Elk River despite the injury to Murray; Zerban, Perbix and Meyers have really stepped up!

I am looking forward to see things sorts themselves out a bit at Schwans and St Louis Park tournaments. Especially at SLP , to see how Stillwater, HF, PL and and LVN sort out, and to see if BSM can remain undefeated ,

[HShockeywatcher]

No one's talking about it, so I'll just go ahead and bring it up...

Karl had Wayzata at 4 and St Thomas outside the top 15 (18 if order matters. LPH had them at 6 and 18 respectively.
St Thomas shut out Wayzata 5-0 on home ice. They had 5 different scorers. Have they simply had a slow start after losing a couple key players from last year and are actually a top team? Wayzata's clearly not a bad team with their good wins and multiple quality opponents this year.

I haven't seen either team play. What happened?

[Sats81]

No one's talking about it, so I'll just go ahead and bring it up...

Karl had Wayzata at 4 and St Thomas outside the top 15 (18 if order matters. LPH had them at 6 and 18 respectively.
St Thomas shut out Wayzata 5-0 on home ice. They had 5 different scorers. Have they simply had a slow start after losing a couple key players from last year and are actually a top team? Wayzata's clearly not a bad team with their good wins and multiple quality opponents this year.

I haven't seen either team play. What happened?

One thing to keep in mind: LPH rankings are arcaic at best. Take them with a huge grain of salt.

[karl(east)]

No one's talking about it, so I'll just go ahead and bring it up...

Karl had Wayzata at 4 and St Thomas outside the top 15 (18 if order matters. LPH had them at 6 and 18 respectively.
St Thomas shut out Wayzata 5-0 on home ice. They had 5 different scorers. Have they simply had a slow start after losing a couple key players from last year and are actually a top team? Wayzata's clearly not a bad team with their good wins and multiple quality opponents this year.

I haven't seen either team play. What happened?

STA is definitely young and slowly coming together. I don't think anyone is surprised to see a slowish start, and there's some talent here that will make them good eventually. They didn't have 5 different scorers (Matsui scored twice) and if you look at their stats, the top line (Jerry-Matsui-Christy) and top D pair (Smallidge-Stucker) are really carrying the load. That's a great top unit, and it may be enough to carry them to State in a weak 3AA, but it doesn't mean they're especially deep.

They'll be back in my top 15 this week, though I try not to overreact to one game in either direction. The Schwan Cup will obviously tell us if this was a fluke or a start of a trend (for both teams).

[Section 8 guy]

Sorry in advance for the question Karl but it is what it is.......

In all the discussion about East no one ever mentions that they were barely a .500 team for most of the season last year. Is it possible it's the tourney run last season that was the anomaly?

[hadenuf]

Well you had to bring it up didn't you? DJ must be busy with "boxing day" or feeding his caribou because this topic is ripe. Can't wait to read the Lord Randolph replies.

[karl(east)]

Sorry in advance for the question Karl but it is what it is.......

In all the discussion about East no one ever mentions that they were barely a .500 team for most of the season last year. Is it possible it's the tourney run last season that was the anomaly?

It's possible; I know I talked directly about this possibility in the preseason rankings.

I don't buy it because of the talent they have. Their top line is all senior forwards who put up big numbers in the elite league. The sophomore class is very deep. Both these groups narrowly lost at State to elite Edina teams in youth state tournaments two years ago, and are largely intact. They've basically controlled play in all of their losses this year, only to be undone by a few breakdowns and some lack of chemistry. Even in watching last year's team lose some games by seemingly ugly scores, like the 5-1 Rapids loss, I had a sense that the changes they needed to make to win weren't large. This year's team has more talent than last year's. I won't guarantee results, but anyone who's just looking at scores is missing the story here.

[Section 8 guy]

Sorry in advance for the question Karl but it is what it is.......

In all the discussion about East no one ever mentions that they were barely a .500 team for most of the season last year. Is it possible it's the tourney run last season that was the anomaly?

It's possible; I know I talked directly about this possibility in the preseason rankings.

I don't buy it because of the talent they have. Their top line is all senior forwards who put up big numbers in the elite league. The sophomore class is very deep. Both these groups narrowly lost at State to elite Edina teams in youth state tournaments two years ago, and are largely intact. They've basically controlled play in all of their losses this year, only to be undone by a few breakdowns and some lack of chemistry. Even in watching last year's team lose some games by seemingly ugly scores, like the 5-1 Rapids loss, I had a sense that the changes they needed to make to win weren't large. This year's team has more talent than last year's. I won't guarantee results, but anyone who's just looking at scores is missing the story here.

Thanks for the take. I tend to agree.

[hadenuf]

Sorry in advance for the question Karl but it is what it is.......

In all the discussion about East no one ever mentions that they were barely a .500 team for most of the season last year. Is it possible it's the tourney run last season that was the anomaly?

It's possible; I know I talked directly about this possibility in the preseason rankings.

I don't buy it because of the talent they have. Their top line is all senior forwards who put up big numbers in the elite league. The sophomore class is very deep. Both these groups narrowly lost at State to elite Edina teams in youth state tournaments two years ago, and are largely intact. They've basically controlled play in all of their losses this year, only to be undone by a few breakdowns and some lack of chemistry. Even in watching last year's team lose some games by seemingly ugly scores, like the 5-1 Rapids loss, I had a sense that the changes they needed to make to win weren't large. This year's team has more talent than last year's. I won't guarantee results, but anyone who's just looking at scores is missing the story here.

Thanks for the take. I tend to agree.

We will see. Where is the goalie who comes in and plays out of his mind and steals a section semi final?