AA Rankings for 1/3/16

[karl(east)]

Happy 2016! Most teams are hitting the halfway point in their schedules, and now that we’re through holiday tournaments, I can feel a lot more confident in my methods. That said, there’s so much parity this year that the gap between the top few spots and the bottom few feels as small as it’s ever been, meaning teams are liable to move up or down a lot faster than usual. Being pushed downward to accommodate a rising team isn’t necessarily a bad sign, either. Without further ado:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-0-1)
-The Red Knights’ Sports Authority Tournament was a tale of survival more than anything. They barely hung on to a tie against Lakeville North, got outplayed by Elk River, and pulled a stunning last-second reversal against mediocre Maple Grove. A healthy Connor Mayer will certainly help the cause. Still, this team’s confidence keeps on growing, and I’m genuinely surprised that we have an undefeated team heading into January. After the St. Thomas game, they get into the easier stretch of their schedule.
This week: Tues vs. #7 St. Thomas Academy, Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

2. Blaine (10-2)
-Took care of business against White Bear Lake and Duluth East. The Bengals’ shortcomings are no secret, but they continue to get things done, and now they get to settle into a string of conference games. They only have one serious non-conference opponent (Hill-Murray) left on the schedule, so they should be able to pile up the wins.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat at Maple Grove

3. Eden Prairie (10-2)
-The Eagles didn’t do anything too flashy at Ridder, but they got three wins, and have now won both the Edina Classic and the Schwan Cup Gold. After some high-scoring affairs earlier in the year, they now seem to be locking down more on the defensive end, which is an important step. They host a couple of northern visitors this week.
This week: Fri vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. Duluth East

4. Holy Family (10-3)
-No one did more for their stock in a holiday tournament than the Fire, who went 3-0 in St. Louis Park against a very tough slate. Wins over Stillwater and Lakeville North prove they can skate with just about anyone, and with wins over Prior Lake and Minnetonka, they’ve all but clinched a top-2 seed in 2AA. Now it’s time to run up that record, as they play nothing but Wright County Conference games in January. The road game with Delano this week is probably the toughest of the bunch.
This week: Tues at Delano, Thurs at New Prague

5. Minnetonka (9-4)
-The Skippers beat Centennial and Edina before falling by one goal to Eden Prairie in the Schwan Cup Gold final. They’re quietly building a very strong resume, and three of their four losses are by one goal to top four teams in the state. They don’t score a lot, but are steady and seem to be improving as time goes along. They now have a few warm-up games for Lake Conference play.
This week: Thurs vs. Holy Angels, Sat vs. Blake

6. Edina (9-5-1)
-The Hornets had a little bit of everything this past week: a tie with St. Thomas Academy, a loss to Minnetonka, a narrow win over Hill, and a comfortable win over White Bear. None of those are huge stock boosters, but they’ve piled up enough wins against decent teams, and have been competitive enough in their losses, to edge upward here. Hill awaits them again this week.
This week: Sat at #12 Hill-Murray

7. St. Thomas Academy (7-2-3)
-It was largely a positive Schwan Cup for the Cadets; while they couldn’t beat Wayzata a second time, they did go undefeated, including a quality tie with Edina. This seems high, and they still have some offensive power outages, but they’re improving, and they certainly belong around the teams they just tied in the rankings. They get the next crack at Benilde now, and also face one of the better Class A contenders.
This week: Tues at #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Sat at South St. Paul

8. Wayzata (9-4-1)
-The Trojans had a second ugly loss to lead off the Schwan Cup, but rebounded with a solid win over Burnsville and a tie with St. Thomas Academy to somewhat amend for the 5-0 flop a week earlier. They’ve shown their potential all season long, and this ranking reflects a strong resume that includes wins over Edina and Holy Family. That capacity for a clunker, however, looms every game. Just one game this week as they gear up for Lake Conference play.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington

9. Elk River (8-4-1)
-Like Holy Family, the Elks had a big week in St. Louis Park, as they beat Prior Lake and Lakeville North and pushed Benilde to the limit. They just generally look like a solid, disciplined team that isn’t going to beat itself, and that can be more valuable than the talent that some of the teams below them have. They’re doing all of this with their top player out hurt, too. Just one game this week, and it’s against a mid-level section opponent.
This week: Tues vs. Andover

10. Stillwater (11-1)
-Flattened their weaker competition this past week, but blew a lead against Holy Family and lost their shot at a second quality win. There’s some good talent here, but their defense didn’t seem ready when the Fire upped the pressure as the game went on. And with their schedule, they may never get that exposure they could use to prepare themselves for these sorts of games. For now, they’ll have to content themselves with locking up a top-2 seed in 4AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Woodbury, Sat vs. White Bear Lake

11. Lakeville North (5-4-1)
-The Panthers showed their ceiling in applying heavy pressure in the Benilde tie, but it was downhill from there, with losses to Holy Family and Elk River. I think they’re better than this, but they only have one quality win (Grand Rapids) and are losing games they should win. They have no trouble piling on the shots, but the weaknesses in back persist, and the offense didn’t score nearly enough against deep, disciplined opponents. They now launch into South Suburban play; they’re the only real front-line team there, so this should be a chance to pile up some wins, though they do face two of the better teams out there this week.
This week: Tues vs. Burnsville, Thurs at Eagan, Sat vs. #15 Prior Lake

12. Hill-Murray (8-4)
-The Pioneers had their best game of the season in a rout of a Wayzata team that had already beaten them, and followed that up with a couple of fairly close losses to better teams. That keeps them steady in this part of the rankings, as they need a second top-quality win to go any higher. They get a second crack at Edina in as many weeks this Saturday.
This week: Thurs at Hastings, Sat vs. #6 Edina

13. Grand Rapids (8-4-1)
-Took care of their two opponents this past week, but it wasn’t always smooth; they’ve given up four or more goals in five of their last six games. That’s a familiar story, and they’re going to need a better defensive effort to win 7AA. A strong week this week could flip the script completely, as a couple of old nemeses come to town.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown, Thurs vs. Duluth East, Sat vs. Andover

14. Bemidji (9-1-2)
-This may appear harsh; like any ranked team, the Lumberjacks can play with anyone. But now that they’ve suffered a loss to middling Cloquet, it’s hard to justify putting a team whose signature win is over Brainerd in the top ten. While their schedule makes it hard to find opportunities to improve on that, games with Hermantown and Hill-Murray will give them a shot. This week, meanwhile, should allow for some stat padding.
This week: Tues at Crookston, Sat at St. Cloud Tech

15. Prior Lake (7-4)
-The Lakers had a deflating Sports Authority tournament; the loss to Moorhead in particular stings. They had no trouble skating with some of the better teams in the state, but the finishing wasn’t there, and their defense gambles forward far too often. The week ahead is a busy one, and gets steadily harder as it goes along.
This week: Tues vs. Shakopee, Thurs vs. Farmington, Sat at #11 Lakeville North

The Next Ten

Burnsville (5-6-1)
-The record isn’t pretty, but they usually hang in there against better teams, and had a big win over Centennial to salvage their Schwan Cup. They now go visit Lakeville North, followed by a section game against improving Rosemount.

Centennial (6-5-1)
-The Cougars had a rough Schwan cup; their offense in particular seemed to abandon them despite playing most of their opponents evenly on the shot counter. Osseo and Anoka are up next.

Anoka (8-3)
-Rolled past a bunch of Class A teams to claim the Schwan Cup Bronze crown. I think they have potential to move up into the top 15, but will need a second real quality win to do so. The week ahead is huge for their section seeding fate, as they’re on the road against Maple Grove and a Centennial team that beat them the first time around.

Farmington (6-3-1)
-No action this past week for the Tigers, but they get back at it in a big way this week, with road games against Wayzata and Prior Lake before coming home to play Eastview. Time to learn a little more about this group.

Brainerd (6-3-1)
-Lost twice on their visit to the Iron Range area, but were competitive in doing so, and gave Rapids a good run. They remain the second-best team in 8AA. They’ve got a tough A game against St. Cloud Apollo and a visit to Roseau this coming week.

Duluth East (5-5)
-Looked very capable of doing some damage in the loss to Blaine, but until they actually get a few quality wins, they’re on the outside looking in. A huge week awaits, as they play one of their biggest 7AA games against Grand Rapids and one of their toughest overall games at Eden Prairie.

Eagan (8-3-1)
-Quietly going on a nice little run; no real quality wins, but the losses are to good teams, they’ve tied decent Eastview, and beat Bloomington Jefferson to help their 3AA standing this past week. Next up: Lakeville North, in a real test of that nice record.

Moorhead (5-6)
-Got a win over Prior Lake, which rescues an otherwise forgettable Sports Authority tournament. They play some good A teams this week, including Thief River Falls and Breck.

Rosemount (5-5)
-The Irish deserve some mention after winning the Schwan Cup Silver, a run that included wins over Lakeville South, Breck, and Mahtomedi. They also gave St. Thomas a very tight game earlier in the year, which makes them relevant in 3AA.

Lakeville South (4-5)
-Beat Eastview in the Schwan Cup Silver finale to edge out the Lightning for this last spot in the rankings. Can help their case against Rosemount this week.

[WestMetro]

Very interesting contrarian view on the No. 5 slot!

[Cedar Riverside]

The Cadets are going to knock off the top rated Red Knights Tuesday! You heard it here first! The Cadets are a disciplined team that are keeping opponents shots coming from the outside. With BSM slumping as of late, I think STA can pull it off with a grinding 3-2 victory.

As of right now the team to beat is Eden Prairie with Blaine being a close second. Tufte and Mittelstadt are the two best players in hs hockey and can both take over any game. Not to mention, they both have great supporting casts that are the reason they are so hard to play against.

Teams ranked 4-15 could beat each other any given night as well. All of those teams have some flaws but still can be dangerous any given night.

Also the team to keep an eye on down the stretch is Duluth East. We all saw what they did last year down the stretch and I believe this team is just as good or if not better than their"miracle" team from last year.

The only team on your list Karl that really is irrelevant and shouldn't be mentioned is Eagan! They have weak goaltending and really are a cupcake team in my opinion!

Thanks for another great set of rankings and I am glad I made an account on the forum. This is fun!

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Are they really going to let Rosemount into the Gold division next season? After winning the Silver they barely rate a mention in Karl's rankings.

Say it won't be so. I'd rather Breck come back.

[MNHockeyFan]

With BSM slumping as of late, I think STA can pull it off with a grinding 3-2 victory.

Lots of teams would love to be "slumping" with no losses! But you're right, STA could pull it off with a grinding 3-2 victory, as could a dozen or more other teams.

[Nuts&Bolts]

I'd guess Rosemount will decide or be encouraged to stay in the silver division and Duluth East will make a return to the gold division replacing Centennial.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Always a great read Karl.
Elks are 7AA "cred" this week.

[HShockeywatcher]

Are they really going to let Rosemount into the Gold division next season? After winning the Silver they barely rate a mention in Karl's rankings.

Say it won't be so. I'd rather Breck come back.

There are 8 players on their roster with more than 2 points...and they're all seniors. I wouldn't be surprised if this team got as high as the 2 seed in sections this year, but I would be really surprised if they were a top 15 team next year.

[Sats81]

My opinion is Minnetonka is not a top 5 team (and I think Karl knows this) and Wayzata at 8? STA 7?

[karl(east)]

My opinion is Minnetonka is not a top 5 team (and I think Karl knows this) and Wayzata at 8? STA 7?

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

[Sats81]

My opinion is Minnetonka is not a top 5 team (and I think Karl knows this) and Wayzata at 8? STA 7?

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

[elliott70]

My opinion is Minnetonka is not a top 5 team (and I think Karl knows this) and Wayzata at 8? STA 7?

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

And Bemidji

[Sats81]

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

And Bemidji

even though they lost to cloquet, i agree. i think they are a legit top 10 team

[elliott70]

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

And Bemidji

even though they lost to cloquet, i agree. i think they are a legit top 10 team

Not very often a team goes undefeated in regular season.
Need the special blend of talent, schedule, and leadership.
No one expected Bemidji to go undefeated. They lost at the right time of the year. They could win out but have at least 7 tough games left in regular season.
After that, well, don't lose. If they make it to the X, they will have a shot, especially with a lot of parity in AA.

[karl(east)]

My opinion is Minnetonka is not a top 5 team (and I think Karl knows this) and Wayzata at 8? STA 7?

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

The Elks will certainly be ahead of STA and Wayzata after they both lost last night (though STA did play about as well against BSM as the other top 10 teams have). Comparing Elky and Tonka:

Elks beat Rapids, Tonka lost to Rapids
Tonka beat Edina, Elks lost to Edina
Tonka beat Centennial, ER tied them
Tonka's losses to Blaine and EP were closer than ER's
Tonka has other quality wins over STA and Hermantown; ER has one over Lakeville North.

So I fail to see how that really comes out in ER's favor.

Stilly and Bemidji are lower due to SOS...maybe I'm too harsh on that front. Time will tell. But I'm suspicious of sliding teams with weak schedules up the rankings simply because they're not losing, only to have to drop them a lot when they finally play someone and lose. That's happened quite a bit in the early going this year.

[Sats81]

Right...not how I would rank these teams in terms of talent (except Wayzata, where there are other issues, and is obviously due for a drop now after the loss to Farmtown), but that's where they fall based on their wins and losses. The teams who are more talented need to prove it consistently.

agreed, just don't see how STA, Tonka, Wayzata are ahead of Elk River....I would even have Stillwater ahead of all of them as well at his point.

The Elks will certainly be ahead of STA and Wayzata after they both lost last night (though STA did play about as well against BSM as the other top 10 teams have). Comparing Elky and Tonka:

Elks beat Rapids, Tonka lost to Rapids
Tonka beat Edina, Elks lost to Edina
Tonka beat Centennial, ER tied them
Tonka's losses to Blaine and EP were closer than ER's
Tonka has other quality wins over STA and Hermantown; ER has one over Lakeville North.

So I fail to see how that really comes out in ER's favor.

Stilly and Bemidji are lower due to SOS...maybe I'm too harsh on that front. Time will tell. But I'm suspicious of sliding teams with weak schedules up the rankings simply because they're not losing, only to have to drop them a lot when they finally play someone and lose. That's happened quite a bit in the early going this year.

Thanks for clarification on ER and Tonka...didn't realize that. My bad.

[elliott70]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

[BodyShots]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

Rapids

[green4]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

I'd probably take tonka, I like them, I had no problem with them at 5 this week. It would be a close game that could go either way though. I'm excited to see Elk when Murray gets back.

[elliott70]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

I'd probably take tonka, I like them, I had no problem with them at 5 this week. It would be a close game that could go either way though. I'm excited to see Elk when Murray gets back.

So Tonka 5 and Er 6 would be a good ranking????

[Sats81]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

I'd probably take tonka, I like them, I had no problem with them at 5 this week. It would be a close game that could go either way though. I'm excited to see Elk when Murray gets back.

So Tonka 5 and Er 6 would be a good ranking????

I still think Tonka at 5 too high. Don't buy them being that good.

[green4]

The question is if ER met Tonka tomorrow night on neutral ice, who would win?

I'd probably take tonka, I like them, I had no problem with them at 5 this week. It would be a close game that could go either way though. I'm excited to see Elk when Murray gets back.

So Tonka 5 and Er 6 would be a good ranking????

I would have been okay with it, I expected Elk to be around there.

[gitter]

I'd probably take tonka, I like them, I had no problem with them at 5 this week. It would be a close game that could go either way though. I'm excited to see Elk when Murray gets back.

So Tonka 5 and Er 6 would be a good ranking????

I still think Tonka at 5 too high. Don't buy them being that good.

While I tend to agree...who do you put there right now? LN? Edina (who they beat)? Stillwater? Its almost like they have to be there by default at this point in time. They do have a couple good wins.

[Sats81]

So Tonka 5 and Er 6 would be a good ranking????

I still think Tonka at 5 too high. Don't buy them being that good.

While I tend to agree...who do you put there right now? LN? Edina (who they beat)? Stillwater? Its almost like they have to be there by default at this point in time. They do have a couple good wins.

I honestly would say Stillwater or Elk River in 5 slot. Both ahead of STA, Wayzata and Edina at this point.

[WestMetro]

Tom Hansen is often underrated, and at 92 gaa pc is keeping skips in every game.

I think Karl has laid out the case why Tonka should be ahead of Elk, at least for now until Murray returns

Suppose you could keep SW at 5 based on record like LPH did, but their schedule has been pretty weak