AA Rankings for 1/17/16

[karl(east)]

We have one month to go until sections, and the losses are beginning to mount for some teams, though the rankings avoided a huge shake-up this past week. Your rankings:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-0-1)
-The Red Knights are still sitting pretty after a week off that saw losses for the second and third-ranked teams. Farmington has shown occasional flashes this year, so they can’t take that one for granted on Tuesday.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

2. Blaine (13-3)
-The Bengals fell to Centennial, but rebounded with a good win over Elk River. When teams keep Tufte off the board—no easy task—they can beat this team; they stay at #2 with Eden Prairie losing as well, but the gap between them and the chase pack just got a lot narrower. This week will be a tough one, as they face Hill and an Anoka team that seems to have their number.
This week: Tues at #13 Hill-Murray, Sat at Anoka

3. Eden Prairie (13-3)
-The Eagles had to fight back against Wayzata and fell to Minnetonka, so it wasn’t an ideal opening week of Lake Conference play. They’ve done enough to stay right here, but like Blaine, they run the risk of become a one-man show with Mittelstadt; they should have the talent to be more than that. This week is on the easier side, with STA being the toughest opponent.
This week: Tues at #14 St. Thomas Academy, Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Hopkins

4. Minnetonka (13-4)
-A win over Eden Prairie further solidifies Minnetonka’s standing in the top five. Their big wins have all been narrow, but they’re finding ways. If they can take care of Wayzata and Edina this week, there will really be reason to believe.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Wayzata, Sat vs. #13 Edina

5. Holy Family (13-3)
-Took care of Mound in their lone game this past week. This week will be another fairly tame one as we await their return to serious competition.
This week: Thurs vs. Orono

6. Lakeville North (11-4-1)
-The Panthers continue to build steam as they rolled up some big offensive numbers against South Suburban competition. This week’s Farmington rematch is a big one within the section; a win should lock up the top spot in 1AA, while a second loss would muddy things up.
This week: Thurs vs. Farmington, Sat at Burnsville

7. Elk River (11-5-1)
-The Elks scored a convincing win over Anoka, but a loss to Blaine keeps them from going any higher. On the whole, they’re still playing everyone tough and looking sharp. The week ahead looks a little easier, though Maple Grove gave them a one-goal game the first time around.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. Maple Grove

8. Stillwater (15-1-1)
-After the hiccup against White Bear, the Ponies are back to their smooth sailing through the Suburban East. This week we finally get the game we’ve been waiting for, as they take on the reigning champs of 4AA in a battle for the section’s top seed.
This week: Thurs vs. East Ridge, Sat at #13 Hill-Murray

9. Bemidji (13-2-2)
-The good news: the Lumberjacks beat Hermantown, proving they can take down a top-flight team. The bad news: they also lost to Moorhead, which makes 8AA a lot more interesting than it was a week ago. They’re a deep, methodical team that isn’t going to blow many other good teams out; they just need to keep it going. This week shouldn’t involve too much stress.
This week: Sat vs. Alexandria

10. Grand Rapids (12-5-1)
-The Thunderhawks’ defensive efforts look to be improving, as shown in wins over Cloquet and Hibbing. They have Duluth Marshall in a section game this week, plus get a visit from mercurial Wayzata.
This week: Tues at Duluth Marshall, Thurs vs. #11 Wayzata, Fri vs. White Bear Lake

11. Wayzata (10-5-1)
-The Trojans had a decent bounceback week, as they played Eden Prairie close and beat Edina for a second time. This week will show if this is genuine improvement or just another little rise on the Wayzata roller coaster.
This week: Thurs at #4 Minnetonka, Fri at #10 Grand Rapids

12. Edina (10-6-2)
-I’ve given the Hornets some leeway for a while due to the strong schedule and some good early wins. On the whole, though, the record isn’t great, and they’re 0-3 against the two teams right above them and have recent ties against those right below, so this is a logical fit. A win over Minnetonka would flip this narrative somewhat.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #4 Minnetonka

13. Hill-Murray (11-4-1)
-Pulled out a narrow win over St. Thomas. They continue to look respectable, but have yet to do anything to really make a move. That could change this week, as they have a couple of huge ones against a top-five opponent and their chief rival in 4AA.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Blaine, Thurs vs. Henry Sibley, Sat vs. #8 Stillwater

14. St. Thomas Academy (9-5-3)
-Lost to Hill in another low-scoring game against a quality opponent, but their win over Centennial in the Schwan Cup keeps them afloat in the top 15. They could use another quality win, and have a big chance at one against Eden Prairie.
This week: Tues vs. #3 Eden Prairie, Thurs vs. Simley, Sat at Duluth Marshall

15. Centennial (10-5-1)
-The Cougars came roaring back to life with a win over Blaine; it probably isn’t quite enough to claim the top seed in 5AA, but it does put the Bengals on notice. A three-game week gives them a chance to build on this recent momentum, and includes a section game and a couple of nonconference opponents that could potentially offer some competition.
This week: Tues at White Bear Lake, Thurs at Maple Grove, Sat at Moorhead

Bubble Teams

Prior Lake (11-5)
-I really think this team should be ranked based on how they’re cleaning up in the South Suburban, and they gave Lakeville North a very tight game recently, too. Their problem is a lack of wins against anyone in the top 15, so they’re on the outside looking in right now. They won’t get that win this week, but they do have a couple of decent opponents, and could climb back up if someone else falters.

Moorhead (10-7)
-Hey there, Potatoes: this week’s wins over Bemidji and Brainerd right back in the heat of things in 8AA. They aren’t overwhelming in any one area, but there’s talent at every position, and they’re young and improving. They’re on the road against section opponents Roseau and St. Michael-Alberville, and host surging Centennial.

Lakeville South (8-5-1)
-The Cougars look to be building some steam, as they tied Burnsville and are winning by decent margins against other South Suburban teams. They lost badly to Prior Lake the first time around, so we’ll see if they show any improvement.

Burnsville (7-8-2)
-Clipped Farmington in a narrow win to hang in here on the bubble. Eagan and Lakeville North are up this week.

Farmington (9-5-1)
-Lost narrowly to Burnsville, which drops them a few spot. A very tough week looms, as they host top-ranked Benilde and have their rematch with Lakeville North.

Duluth East (8-7)
-Steps in the right direction for the Hounds this past week, albeit against middling competition. This week’s game with Prior Lake will be a good bellwether.

Rosemount (8-6)
-Beat Eagan, but came back to earth some in a humbling at the hands of Prior Lake. This week should be easier, and includes an important section game against Eastview.

Anoka (8-6)
-It’s been rough lately for the Tornadoes, with section losses to Maple Grove and Centennial and then a blowout at the hands of Elk River. A second win over Blaine would right the ship in a hurry.

St. Michael-Albertville (11-4-2)
-The competition has been lousy, but the Knights have won seven straight, and have quality wins over Breck and Duluth East. This week’s Moorhead game will give a better idea of how real they are.

[WestMetro]

I like the placement of Stillwater and Bemidji together.

I guess the case could be made that Tonkas win last night launched them past HF to gain the #4 slot. Like you mentioned, theyve got a couple of tough LC games this week while HF has an easy one.

[karl(east)]

I like the placement of Stillwater and Bemidji together.

I guess the case could be made that Tonkas win last night launched them past HF to gain the #4 slot. Like you mentioned, theyve got a couple of tough LC games this week while HF has an easy one.

Yeah, I felt I had to reward Tonka somehow for the win over EP instead of just keeping the top 5 the same. Makes 2AA a bit more interesting, too. If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3.

[HockeyonFire]

"If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3."

As someone who has followed EP HC Lee Smith and the old Section 6AA the last five years I can honestly say that even if Tonka were to beat EP again, EP won't allow Holy Family to obtain the top-seed and will instead give Minnetonka the top-seed with EP somehow getting the 2 and Holy Family will get the 3 EVEN IF-> Holy Family wins out at Grand Rapids and at Stillwater and finishes the regular season 22-3. Therefore as a Fire fan I have to cheer for EP to win at Minnetonka so HF can keep the 2 seed...its sad but that's reality and why I can't stand EP.

[Clarkkent]

I like the placement of Stillwater and Bemidji together.

I guess the case could be made that Tonkas win last night launched them past HF to gain the #4 slot. Like you mentioned, theyve got a couple of tough LC games this week while HF has an easy one.

Yeah, I felt I had to reward Tonka somehow for the win over EP instead of just keeping the top 5 the same. Makes 2AA a bit more interesting, too. If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3.

Your logic is hard to understand. If the above is true, why would you have Tonka #4 now with HF#5?

[blueblood]

I see history repeating itself again this season...

[Clarkkent]

"If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3."

As someone who has followed EP HC Lee Smith and the old Section 6AA the last five years I can honestly say that even if Tonka were to beat EP again, EP won't allow Holy Family to obtain the top-seed and will instead give Minnetonka the top-seed with EP somehow getting the 2 and Holy Family will get the 3 EVEN IF-> Holy Family wins out at Grand Rapids and at Stillwater and finishes the regular season 22-3. Therefore as a Fire fan I have to cheer for EP to win at Minnetonka so HF can keep the 2 seed...its sad but that's reality and why I can't stand EP.

If section 2AA sections seeds are as whacked as last years 6AA seeds. Everyone will know that Urick and Smith have way too much power. Last years 6AA seeds where an embarrassment to the process.

[karl(east)]

I like the placement of Stillwater and Bemidji together.

I guess the case could be made that Tonkas win last night launched them past HF to gain the #4 slot. Like you mentioned, theyve got a couple of tough LC games this week while HF has an easy one.

Yeah, I felt I had to reward Tonka somehow for the win over EP instead of just keeping the top 5 the same. Makes 2AA a bit more interesting, too. If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3.

Your logic is hard to understand. If the above is true, why would you have Tonka #4 now with HF#5?

Record in the section is (usually) the main criteria for seeding. I think Tonka's body of work is now better than HF's, but because HF beat Tonka back in December, that will take precedent at the seeding meeting. It's not uncommon for the rankings and the seeds to not align, and that's fine.

[Clarkkent]

Yeah, I felt I had to reward Tonka somehow for the win over EP instead of just keeping the top 5 the same. Makes 2AA a bit more interesting, too. If EP wins the rematch with Tonka I'd still give them the top seed, but if Tonka wins again, give the Fire the top seed with Tonka at 2 and EP at 3.

Your logic is hard to understand. If the above is true, why would you have Tonka #4 now with HF#5?

Record in the section is (usually) the main criteria for seeding. I think Tonka's body of work is now better than HF's, but because HF beat Tonka back in December, that will take precedent at the seeding meeting. It's not uncommon for the rankings and the seeds to not align, and that's fine.

Your right, it should, but the seeds didn't work that way last year in 6AA

[HockeyonFire]

If section 2AA sections seeds are as whacked as last years 6AA seeds. Everyone will know that Urick and Smith have way too much power. Last years 6AA seeds where an embarrassment to the process.

Exactly. Holy Family went 17-6-2 last year and got stuck with the 5 seed while Benilde went 14-9-2 and got the 4 while the other three teams were:
1. EP 16-9
2. Tonka 12-11-2
3. Wayzata 11-11-1

[HockeyonFire]

This will definitely change every week but as of right now this is it-

Minnetonka vs. Holy Family “body of work” (record vs. Karl’s top-15)

Minnetonka 13-4, (4-4)
W: @#3 EP, vs. #12 Edina, @#14 STA, #15 Cent, #1 (A) Hermantown,
@Moorhead,
L: #2 Blaine, vs. #3 EP, @#5 Holy Family, @#10 GR

Holy Family 13-3 (4-2) + head-to-head
W: #4 Minnetonka, vs. #6 Lakeville North, vs. #8 Stillwater, @#14 STA,
vs. Prior Lake, Lakeville South,
L: #11 Wayzata, vs. #12 Edina, @#2 (a) Breck

[WestMetro]

HOF , based on your view of things, what do you think could be or should be done about the situation , if anything?

[HockeyonFire]

HOF , based on your view of things, what do you think could be or should be done about the situation , if anything?

If Minnetonka beats Eden Prairie later this year then Holy Family should be ahead of Minnetonka, become the 1 seed, IF and only IF Holy Family can win out and go 22-3 while beating Grand Rapids and Stillwater. Otherwise Minnetonka should be #1, EP #2, HF #3..If EP beats Tonka then the seedings should be clear and EP #1, HF #2 and Tonka #3....
for this week if Minnetonka defeats Wayzata or Edina then they will have one more win then Holy Family in the top-15 and I would put Tonka ahead of Holy Family. the more wins the better. I hope HF goes Independent next year so that HF doesn't have to play Class A anymore and that the seeding process can be fair.

[Clarkkent]

Is going Indepentant for HF even a remote possibility?

[Sparlimb]

HOF , based on your view of things, what do you think could be or should be done about the situation , if anything?

If Minnetonka beats Eden Prairie later this year then Holy Family should be ahead of Minnetonka, become the 1 seed, IF and only IF Holy Family can win out and go 22-3 while beating Grand Rapids and Stillwater. Otherwise Minnetonka should be #1, EP #2, HF #3..If EP beats Tonka then the seedings should be clear and EP #1, HF #2 and Tonka #3....
for this week if Minnetonka defeats Wayzata or Edina then they will have one more win then Holy Family in the top-15 and I would put Tonka ahead of Holy Family. the more wins the better. I hope HF goes Independent next year so that HF doesn't have to play Class A anymore and that the seeding process can be fair.

Seedings are for pretenders. Just beat the teams in front of you and all will be well.

[Sats81]

HOF , based on your view of things, what do you think could be or should be done about the situation , if anything?

If Minnetonka beats Eden Prairie later this year then Holy Family should be ahead of Minnetonka, become the 1 seed, IF and only IF Holy Family can win out and go 22-3 while beating Grand Rapids and Stillwater. Otherwise Minnetonka should be #1, EP #2, HF #3..If EP beats Tonka then the seedings should be clear and EP #1, HF #2 and Tonka #3....
for this week if Minnetonka defeats Wayzata or Edina then they will have one more win then Holy Family in the top-15 and I would put Tonka ahead of Holy Family. the more wins the better. I hope HF goes Independent next year so that HF doesn't have to play Class A anymore and that the seeding process can be fair.

Seedings are for pretenders. Just beat the teams in front of you and all will be well.

Amen.

[Gotothenetman]

Rosemount (8-6)
-Beat Eagan, but came back to earth some in a humbling at the hands of Prior Lake. This week should be easier, and includes an important section game against Eastview.


I would agree, and no excuses but it was unfortunate that Rosemount had to play there backup goalie. Starter had a family event. Backup gave up 3 goals on 9 shots to start the game. Got pulled after 4th goal and they played a 10th grader to finish the game. Tough spot to get your first varsity action. Still s bubble team at best.

[nahc]

Totally agree with Sparlimb and SATS .... win and move on........ doesn't matter where you play..... just win.

[elliott70]

Section 8AA seeding is important because of the seven team section. #1 gets the bye which is a help.

[Sparlimb]

Section 8AA seeding is important because of the seven team section. #1 gets the bye which is a help.

Moorhead v STMA in the semis and the final versus Brrrmidji will be the only two good games. Those 3 will have an easy first round game...

[elliott70]

Section 8AA seeding is important because of the seven team section. #1 gets the bye which is a help.

Moorhead v STMA in the semis and the final versus Brrrmidji will be the only two good games. Those 3 will have an easy first round game...

So we are discounting Brainerd?

[Sparlimb]

Section 8AA seeding is important because of the seven team section. #1 gets the bye which is a help.

Moorhead v STMA in the semis and the final versus Brrrmidji will be the only two good games. Those 3 will have an easy first round game...

So we are discounting Brainerd?

Well Brainerd has a nice team, but I think Bemidji will get by them easily in sections. We'll see. Long time until then.

[HShockeywatcher]

Rosemount (8-6)
-Beat Eagan, but came back to earth some in a humbling at the hands of Prior Lake. This week should be easier, and includes an important section game against Eastview.


I would agree, and no excuses but it was unfortunate that Rosemount had to play there backup goalie. Starter had a family event. Backup gave up 3 goals on 9 shots to start the game. Got pulled after 4th goal and they played a 10th grader to finish the game. Tough spot to get your first varsity action. Still s bubble team at best.

I'm not sure how it's humbling to lose 7-1 to a team you previously lost to 9-1. I don't think it matters where they are ranked, but they beat Burnsville on the road, Eagan on the road and Eastview on the road and lost to St Thomas by 1, again on the road. They have 3 losses between Lakeville North and Prior Lake and 3 one goal losses. Not a team anyone in the section will want to face.

[elliott70]

Pagestat as of 1-16-16
1 EDEN PRAIRIE drop 1
2 BENILDE ST MARGARETS rise 1
3 LAKEVILLE NORTH drop 2
4 HOLY FAMILY hold
5 PRIOR LAKE drop 3
6 BLAINE drop 2
7 BEMIDJI hold
8 MINNETONKA hold
9 EDINA drop 1
10 STILLWATER drop 1
11 ELK RIVER drop 1
12 GRAND RAPIDS hold
13 HILL MURRAY rise 4 or 5
14 CENTENNIAL rise 1
15 WAYZATA rise a lot
16 ST THOMAS ACADEMY rise 2
17 FARMINGTON rise 2
18 MAPLE GROVE hold
19 MOORHEAD rise 1
20 DULUTH EAST rise 3 or 4


Now all the rise, drop, hold may not balance out, but there should be some significant change. Which may translate into who is coming into their own as we near February and section play.

Based on what has happened this week thus far I would expect...