AA Rankings for 2/7/16

[karl(east)]

With one week to go in the regular season, never before have rankings felt so useless. We have a clear #1, then a heap of teams that can beat each other on any given night. Barring an upset in a thin section, there’s also not a whole lot to be gained from getting seeded at State, either. It’s just that wide open. Still, we have to try to figure it all, so here’s one last in-season effort:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (22-0-1)
-The rest of the rankings may seem a mess, but we have certainty at the top: the Red Knights are still undefeated after they held off a late Eden Prairie charge on Saturday. Even with a loss to Wayzata this week, they’ll be #1 heading into sections, and are the team to beat. Their consistency under pressure has been excellent, but that pressure will only ramp up in the coming weeks.
This week: Thurs at #7 Wayzata, Sat vs. St. Louis Park

2. Stillwater (21-1-1)
-It was another easy ride for the Ponies this past week; like most of my #2s this year, I really don’t like this, but they’re doing what they need to do against their schedule. This week, however, does have some legitimate challenges: they could only muster a tie against White Bear a month ago, and lost to Holy Family over the Holidays. With wins this week, they’ll have beaten every team they’ve played this year.
This week: Thurs at White Bear Lake, Sat vs. #4 Holy Family

3. Blaine (18-4)
-The Bengals are rolling through the underbelly of the Northwest Suburban. As with Stillwater, I have my concerns; they’ve played three top 20 teams in the past month, and two of those ended in lopsided losses. Still, they have the star power, and they’re taking care of business against weaker opponents. Expect more of the same this week.
This week: Mon vs. Champlin Park, Wed vs. Armstrong/Cooper, Sat vs. Roseville

4. Holy Family (17-4)
-This is perhaps the toughest team to rank this week. They lost to Grand Rapids; the game was close but the shots weren’t. It was an outdoor game, which isn’t always the best gauge of a team, but it’s also their only relevant opponent in the past month. For now, their body of work is still better than most, so I’m keeping them toward the top. A loss this week, however—even to Stillwater—and I’ll be less forgiving.
This week: Tues at St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs vs. St. Cloud Cathedral, Sat at #2 Stillwater

5. Minnetonka (17-6-1)
-Okay, raise your hand if you had the Skippers winning the Lake Conference at the start of the year. I’m still not quite sure how they’re doing it, but depth and hard work seems to pay off, and after avenging their Wayzata loss and fighting Eden Prairie tight again, they’re in position to do so with a win over Edina this week.
This week: Thurs at #11 Edina, Sat vs. #13 Duluth East

6. Eden Prairie (15-6-2)
-The Eagles are now winless in their last four, though they did at least show some fight near the end of the Benilde game. The potential is still there, but they’re running low on time to string it all together, and will have a minefield to get through in 2AA. One final date with Edina looms; a win would be a good way to generate some momentum heading into sections.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #11 Edina

7. Wayzata (15-7-1)
-Looked excellent in a win over Edina, but turned around and saw their win streak halted by Minnetonka on Saturday. As with Eden Prairie, they have the pieces to do some damage in sections, but there are still some looming questions. With a section final rematch in two weeks a distinct possibility, it’ll be interesting to see how they play the Benilde game.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Hopkins

8. Lakeville North (16-5-1)
-Took care of Lakeville South to retake their position atop 1AA, and grinded out a Hockey Day win over Duluth East. They’re much stronger defensively than they were in December, which could serve them well over the next month. They’ve got two interesting ones in their final week, as they face St. Thomas and Prior Lake.
This week: Tues vs. #12 St. Thomas Academy, Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Prior Lake

9. Grand Rapids (17-6-1)
-Beating Holy Family has the Thunderhawks back in the top ten. They’ve won 9 of 10, with the lone loss to Wayzata, and are carrying play in every game, so there’s good reason to be optimistic about this surging squad. The talent is there to make a deep run.
This week: Fri at Duluth Denfeld

10. Bemidji (20-2-2)
-The Lumberjacks reached the 20-win mark for a second straight year with three wins this past week, though the narrowness of the wins over Brainerd and (especially) Sartell raises some red flags. They wrap things up against Thief River Falls, and could (probably) end up with the most regular season wins in school history.
This week: Fri vs. Thief River Falls

11. Edina (13-8-2)
-Wayzata rolled over the Hornets in their lone game this past week, which dims some of the talk about a late season Hornet surge. With Minnetonka and Eden Prairie up next, though, they still have a chance to make some last-minute noise. It seems like they’re still fighting to find some balance.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #6 Eden Prairie

12. St. Thomas Academy (14-5-5)
-Avenged an earlier 1-0 loss to Hill with a 1-0 win of their own, and a tie to Mahtomedi also reinforces their standing as a quality but beatable team. This week’s tangle with North gives them one last shot at a quality win.
This week: Tues at #8 Lakeville North

13. Duluth East (14-8)
-Ran their winning streak to eight before falling on Hockey Day. Playing with top teams doesn’t seem to be an issue, but the forward lines still seem somewhat unsettled, and there are just enough defensive lapses to sow some doubt. They have a crowded final week, with games against decent Lakeville South and a season-ending road trip to Minnetonka.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Thurs at Superior, Sat at #5 Minnetonka

14. Elk River (15-7-1)
-Like Blaine, they took care of business against weaker Northwest Suburban competition. Hill-Murray poses their last challenge of the regular season, though it can’t do them any good toward section seeding; still, if they can get everyone back in the lineup clicking together, they’d head into sections on a high note.
This week: Wed vs. #15 Hill-Murray, Thurs vs. Coon Rapids

15. Hill-Murray (14-7-2)
The Pioneers continue their less than compelling run down the stretch with a shutout loss to St. Thomas; they’ve won just once in their last five. If they can’t do something against Elk River this week, they could easily finish the regular season outside the top 15.
This week: Wed at #14 Elk River, Sat vs. Moorhead

In the Chase Pack

Prior Lake (17-6)
-Slipped by Farmington to keep up the steady stream of wins against weaker teams. A good showing against Lakeville North would be a good close to a strong season for a team that could surprise somebody in the 2AA playoffs.

Centennial (15-6-1)
-Steamrolled Coon Rapids, and it should be more of the same this coming week against weaker conference competition. The schedule hasn’t been overly difficult, but they’ve quietly gone on a very nice run since the start of 2016, and shouldn’t be taken lightly in sections or even at State if they get that far.

Lakeville South (14-7-1)
-Lost to North, which dims some of the enthusiasm over the previous Farmington win, but they still have a chance to rise some with games against Duluth East and Burnsville this week.

Burnsville (11-10-2)
-Got over the .500 mark for the first time all season with a couple of 3AA wins. A win against Lakeville South, whom they tied the first time around, would provide some decent momentum heading into the most open section in AA.

Farmington (13-8-1)
-Lost a narrow one to Prior Lake and continue to tread water. They should be able to win their final two against Shakopee and Eastview.

Moorhead (14-9)
-Got a respectable Class A win over East Grand Forks, and continue to hover in the picture. They conclude with a visit to Hill-Murray on Saturday.

St. Michael-Albertville (14-6-2)
-Beat Buffalo in a tight game to stay in the 20-25 range. Holy Family presents a final week challenge.

Anoka (12-9)
-Rattled off a couple more wins, but lost a chance at a useful ranking game against STMA due to weather. They’ve got three games this week, but none look overly difficult.

Likely seeding orders, with one week to go:

1AA
8 Lakeville North
18 Lakeville South
20 Farmington
-North’s win over South gives us perfect cyclical logic between the top three: North swept South, who swept Farmington, who swept North. This means it comes down to overall body of work; North laps the competition here, and deserves the top seed. 2 vs. 3, while not a huge deal in the long run, tips toward South right now due to their slightly better overall record. Unless Farmington can solve its Cougar woes, it looks like we’re in for another all-Lakeville final here.

2AA
4 Holy Family
5 Minnetonka
6 Eden Prairie
16 Prior Lake
-The Eden Prairie-Tonka tie was most unhelpful; a result either way would have made this clear. Instead, it’s about as much of a mess as is humanly possible. If Holy Family wins out, hey, I’d say give them the top seed for consistency’s sake, but the Lake Conference coaches may have other ideas. Since Tonka and EP are 1-1-1 against each other, I’d just tip the higher seed there to whoever finishes ranked higher, and that’s still very much up for grabs this week. Stay tuned every night to see how they all shift.

3AA
12 St. Thomas Academy
19 Burnsville
-Wins for Burnsville over Rosemount and Eastview assure the Blaze of the 2-seed. Eastview and Rosemount are the likely 3 and 4, and could go either way after splitting their regular season games; Eastview does have a tie with STA to boost its case, but also has two ties with struggling Eagan. Based on that, I’d give the Irish the 3-seed, as they seem to be an upset threat with their solid goaltending. Jefferson would be a tough 5-seed, but has a loss to Eagan in the section dragging down the ship. Eagan, despite some ugly results, could also be a tough out, and also hosts Rosemount this week in one final section game that could further confuse things.

4AA
2 Stillwater
15 Hill-Murray
-Finally, a section without any questions at the top. Tartan’s fade toward the end probably gives White Bear the 3-seed, which could make for a semifinal rivalry renewal.

5AA
3 Blaine
16 Centennial
23 Anoka
Maple Grove
-Centennial does have an argument for #1 with their better section record, but I’m not buying it; Blaine has done enough to stay at the top. Anoka, with a Blaine win and a split with Maple Grove, is #3, and Maple Grove’s easy win over Spring Lake Park this past week assures them of the 4-seed.

6AA
1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
7 Wayzata
11 Edina
-Benilde is now far enough ahead of the field that they should be #1 no matter what happens against Wayzata against Thursday. This section is locked in.

7AA
9 Grand Rapids
13 Duluth East
14 Elk River
-Rapids’ strong late surge should be enough for the top seed. East and Elk River could easily be flipped for 2 or 3; I’d give the slight edge to the Hounds based on recent work unless they lose to Lakeville South on Tuesday. Cloquet should be safe at #4.

8AA
10 Bemidji
21 Moorhead
22 St. Michael-Albertville
Brainerd
-Not much debate left here; Brainerd’s recent struggles have probably cost them any chance they had at #3. Their quarterfinal with (presumably) Roseau could be interesting.

[LASERBLUE135]

Impossible to predict anything this year, and I wouldn't have it any other way! If someone can beat BSM, when it counts, you might as well take the top 15 and throw them in a hat to see who comes out in the end. This is easily the most wide open year I can remember since I've been following MN hockey.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Thanks Karl for the in depth weekly rankings. Always a good Sunday morning read. Hard to believe the regular season is wrapping up this week.

[Gotothenetman]

3AA 
12 St. Thomas Academy 
19 Burnsville 
-Wins for Burnsville over Rosemount and Eastview assure the Blaze of the 2-seed. Eastview and Rosemount are the likely 3 and 4, and could go either way after splitting their regular season games; Eastview does have a tie with STA to boost its case, but also has two ties with struggling Eagan. Based on that, I’d give the Irish the 3-seed, as they seem to be an upset threat with their solid goaltending. Jefferson would be a tough 5-seed, but has a loss to Eagan in the section dragging down the ship. Eagan, despite some ugly results, could also be a tough out, and also hosts Rosemount this week in one final section game that could further confuse things. 


Didn't Rosemount and Burnsville split this year?

[keepyourheadup]

Great job Carl! Thanks. FREE SATS81

[elliott70]

I think you got #1 right.

2 through 12 are interchangeable.

13 - 15 Probably throw Centennial in that group.