Unless you were Wayzata or a team that played Wayzata, things went more or less according to plan in the opening week and a half. Not a ton of movement here, and as has long been the case, I’m not going to overreact to a single win or loss or assume that one team has to be ahead of another just because they beat them. One game does not a season make, and we need trends, not individual results, to make significant moves.
1. Eden Prairie (2-0)
-The Eagles came out flying as advertised, and took care of a pair of mid-tier opponents. They got offense from a variety of sources, not just Casey Mittelstadt, which is an encouraging sign. Expect more of the same this week.
This week: Thurs at Bloomington Jefferson, Sat vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
2. Stillwater (2-0)
-It wasn’t an overwhelming opening week for the Ponies, but they responded well to an early deficit against Lakeville South and locked down their two wins. At this point, and with no great shocks among the team below them, I’m not inclined to move them based on any of that. They now settle in to Suburban East play, and won’t face another top 20 team until the St. Louis Park tournament at the end of the month.
This week: Thurs vs. Roseville, Sat at Cretin-Derham Hall
3. Elk River (2-0)
-It’s all fun and games for the Elks as they maraud their way through the underbelly of the Northwest Suburban Conference. They face their first substantial test on Saturday against Centennial.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at #13 Centennial
4. Grand Rapids (2-0)
-That top line took care of business for the Thunderhawks, as they got past Minnetonka in overtime and rolled over a down Benilde team. It should be another productive week for that offense against three of their longtime northern opponents at the IRA Civic Center.
This week: Tues vs. Virginia, Fri vs. Roseau, Sat vs. Warroad
5. Holy Family (3-0)
-The Fire’s first ever Turkey Trot championship had them looking pretty solid, with a tight defensive win over Edina and a convincing win over Maple Grove in the final. With this defense and depth up front, they’re looking formidable. St. Thomas poses their next test; a win will solidify their top-5 standing.
This week: Thurs at New Prague, Sat vs. #8 St. Thomas Academy
6. Edina (3-1)
-The Hornets are rather quietly off to a good start, with a narrow loss to a strong Holy Family team and a comfortable win over their main rival for the 6AA crown, Wayzata. It’s early, of course, and there will be many more meetings between the two, but it’s a good start for a young but very talented defense. As has become the norm, they now take a week off before they host the Edina Classic.
This week: Idle
7. Lakeville North (1-0)
-A high-scoring win in the opener against St. Thomas Academy has the Panthers moving up a few spots. Mid-level South Suburban teams await this week, though one is a chance at redemption from last year.
This week: Thurs at Eastview, Sat vs. Farmington
8. St. Thomas Academy (2-1)
-Picked up a nice win over Minnetonka in their first game, but the loss to Lakeville North drops the Cadets a spot. They have little trouble racking up the shots, but the goals haven’t always been proportionate. Next up are a couple of conference foes before a big one with Holy Family.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Thurs at Simley, Sat at #5 Holy Family
9. Minnetonka (1-2)
-The Skippers opened with two losses, but both were by one goal to top ten teams, so no real concern there for a young group. A workmanlike effort against Duluth Marshall got them their first win, and their next two opponents are decent, but should be wins.
This week: Tues at Blaine, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson
10. Lakeville South (1-1-1)
-The Cougars acquitted themselves fairly well in three tough opening games, with an outburst against Breck, a respectable showing in a loss to Stillwater, and tie in Hermantown. They’re a deep, steady team with good defense, and the 1AA race is shaping up to be a good one. This has to be the first time in a long time, if not ever, that there have been two top-10 1AA teams. They now have a busy week of conference play, including one of the teams right below them, Prior Lake.
This week: Tues vs. Rosemount, Thurs at Burnsville, Sat vs. #12 Prior Lake
11. Wayzata (1-3)
-What do you do with some stumbling Trojans? The Maple Grove loss is the only really glaring one, and while they lost a tight one to East, they also rolled over a very good Hermantown team, which washes that out some. The talent is here, so I’m not going to drop them too far unless they take some more questionable losses.
This week: Thurs at Breck
12. Prior Lake (1-0)
-Dealt with Chanhassen in their lone game, so there’s not much to say here yet. Lakeville South, which has looked strong in the early going, is up this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Apple Valley, Sat at #10 Lakeville South
13. Centennial (2-0)
-The Cougars racked up a pair of 3-goal wins over decent teams on their northern swing, and now head back to Metro-land. Saturday’s date with Elk River is their first big test of the year.
This week: Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. #3 Elk River
14. Duluth East (1-1)
-Not a big surprise to see the Hounds at 1-1 after their opening week, but the win over Wayzata and the loss to White Bear has things kind of backwards…so we’ll just call it a wash and put them right back where they were in the preseason rankings. Bemidji comes to Duluth for a visit this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Bemidji, Sat at Andover
15. Moorhead (3-0)
-The Spuds made the first move in the 8AA race by pulling out a tight one over Bemidji. It’s hard to say too much about that one at this point in the year, but it’s a step in the right direction. A couple of regional rivals are up next.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Thurs at Fargo South
Bubble Teams
Hill-Murray (2-0)
-The Pioneers are off to a strong start with wins over Burnsville and Eastview in which they flashed some offense. They look like a team that should probably be ranked, but that would require dropping someone else; no one right above them deserves that at this point, unless Hill gets a real signature win. Things get a little more difficult this week, as they face Benilde and Mahtomedi.
Maple Grove (1-1)
-A solid win over Wayzata to open the Turkey Trot boosts the Crimson some, and makes them look like an even more serious player in 5AA. They’ve got some experience, they’ve got some depth, and Sam Huff can put up some big points. They should win both of their games this week.
Bemidji (2-1)
-Lost to Moorhead, but also won a pair of section games, and with Pollock out and the Moorhead game going down to the wire, there’s no cause for concern. Their lone game this week is a road trip to Duluth East, which should be a chance to move up.
St. Michael-Albertville (1-0)
-The Knights made a good early statement with the win over Benilde, proving they belong in the top 20 conversation. This week they have Burnsville, another team hovering around the bubble here.
White Bear Lake (3-0)
-The Bears are off to a strong start with three wins, including one over Duluth East. We’ll wait for them to get a second quality win before getting too excited, but with strong goaltending and a productive top line, they can be a factor in 4AA. Taking care of business against Suburban East teams like East Ridge and Roseville will further help the cause.
Blaine (2-0)
-Had an adventure against Armstrong/Cooper, showing there will be some growing pains as they rebuild, but got the win in the end. Minnetonka gives them their first big-time opponent this week.
Burnsville (0-1)
-Gave Hill a decent game in a losing effort. It gets no easier this week, with Lakeville South and St. Michael-Albertville.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (1-2)
-Lost to STMA and got blanked by Grand Rapids, though it appears they at least held their own 5-on-5 against the Thunderhawks. The win over Duluth Marshall gives them some separation from the mess of teams after them, which I won’t attempt to rank.
That’s all I’ve got this week. Comment away.
AA Rankings for 12/4/16
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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karl(east)
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hockeygirl2
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nice list again. A good week for stillwater. THE ER game against Centennial should be good one. Still not sold on HF forwards, if they get down a couple goals it could be a problem but Moe should keep them in all their games. Prior Lake won 3-1 with an empty net over Chanhassen, I would like to see a few more results there. BSM and Burnsville do not belong in the conversation for top 20.
Great writeup Karl.
And again, the usual tribute to Green 4 this week for excellent play by play game remarks. The local livestreamers should all consider hiring Green 4 for color commentary
Here are some early season first impression thoughts. In order of Karls rankings. Apologies to anyone in advance, I didnt attempt to balance out positives and negatives, these are just initial thoughts that stuck with me.
o EP should be uncontested #1 all season. A great deep lineup at all positions. Capable of putting up huge points by many people. But, I was surprised Enright was able to shutdown EP last night after 5 quick goals.. A person would have thought EP snipers could have added another 5. This left me a bit puzzled, even though Enright is great. Leivermann has to be sure D zone is protected when he carries the puck in, after all the Eagles already have plenty of offensive weaponry.
o SW overpowered LVS for 2 1/2 periods, but before that, Eisele showed some vulnerablilty with Cory Checco getting 3 fairly unobstructed snipes right by him.
o Planning to see the Elks at Centennial next Saturday. Should be one of best games of season.
o A little disappointed in Thawks, in that I expected them to beat Tonka by 3 goals, especially without Clay Hanus. Their first line is super, when they get a good look , or even a reasonable look, you get a pretty good feeling the puck is going in the net. ( I havent had that level of confidence about good look conversion rates since Nick and Jack Poehling senior year)
o The Family is doing what they have to do. Great goal tending. One of best D corps in the state controlling blue line and keeping slot clear, and experienced forwards consistently putting puck in net in opportunistic situations
o Wont be seeing Hornets until Braemar tourney. But not surprised they have moved up a bit. Great D and snipers can help things, and goaltending situation looks promising after 4 games.
o Havent seen LVN. Surprised they were able to put up so many goals against expected quality STA goaltending, STA defensive must have fallen down somewhat that game. On the other hand, LVN own goaltending situation is unresolved by giving up too many goals in same game
o A young STA team. Good goaltending against Tonka, apparently less so against LVN. Offense looked a bit disorganized in Tonka game , not unexpected so early, but the older Christy stepped up to get job done. D kept it close against Tonka but apparently couldnt shut down LVN forwards as well.
o Tonka, another young team with great potential. Offense showed opportunistics against STA, but needs to improve puck flow to their fullest great potential as season progresses. Loss of Hanus for season is huge, and best thoughts for him and family on recovery. ( Departure of Dom Picciano hurt this team in short run, even if the long run it works out)
o Excited about this LVS group. Cory Checco could be one of best pure snipers in state with great speed and hard wrister . There are 3-4 others who could get 20-25 points for balanced scoring. DiLaura did well in high pressure situations. Forwards could do a little more forechecking , and Dmen need to keep low slot clear, especially against a top 5 team like SW, where I didnt think they made adequate game plan adjustments in periods 2 and 3. Karl can comment about the Htown game where they obviously did well in the most unfriendly of environments
And again, the usual tribute to Green 4 this week for excellent play by play game remarks. The local livestreamers should all consider hiring Green 4 for color commentary
Here are some early season first impression thoughts. In order of Karls rankings. Apologies to anyone in advance, I didnt attempt to balance out positives and negatives, these are just initial thoughts that stuck with me.
o EP should be uncontested #1 all season. A great deep lineup at all positions. Capable of putting up huge points by many people. But, I was surprised Enright was able to shutdown EP last night after 5 quick goals.. A person would have thought EP snipers could have added another 5. This left me a bit puzzled, even though Enright is great. Leivermann has to be sure D zone is protected when he carries the puck in, after all the Eagles already have plenty of offensive weaponry.
o SW overpowered LVS for 2 1/2 periods, but before that, Eisele showed some vulnerablilty with Cory Checco getting 3 fairly unobstructed snipes right by him.
o Planning to see the Elks at Centennial next Saturday. Should be one of best games of season.
o A little disappointed in Thawks, in that I expected them to beat Tonka by 3 goals, especially without Clay Hanus. Their first line is super, when they get a good look , or even a reasonable look, you get a pretty good feeling the puck is going in the net. ( I havent had that level of confidence about good look conversion rates since Nick and Jack Poehling senior year)
o The Family is doing what they have to do. Great goal tending. One of best D corps in the state controlling blue line and keeping slot clear, and experienced forwards consistently putting puck in net in opportunistic situations
o Wont be seeing Hornets until Braemar tourney. But not surprised they have moved up a bit. Great D and snipers can help things, and goaltending situation looks promising after 4 games.
o Havent seen LVN. Surprised they were able to put up so many goals against expected quality STA goaltending, STA defensive must have fallen down somewhat that game. On the other hand, LVN own goaltending situation is unresolved by giving up too many goals in same game
o A young STA team. Good goaltending against Tonka, apparently less so against LVN. Offense looked a bit disorganized in Tonka game , not unexpected so early, but the older Christy stepped up to get job done. D kept it close against Tonka but apparently couldnt shut down LVN forwards as well.
o Tonka, another young team with great potential. Offense showed opportunistics against STA, but needs to improve puck flow to their fullest great potential as season progresses. Loss of Hanus for season is huge, and best thoughts for him and family on recovery. ( Departure of Dom Picciano hurt this team in short run, even if the long run it works out)
o Excited about this LVS group. Cory Checco could be one of best pure snipers in state with great speed and hard wrister . There are 3-4 others who could get 20-25 points for balanced scoring. DiLaura did well in high pressure situations. Forwards could do a little more forechecking , and Dmen need to keep low slot clear, especially against a top 5 team like SW, where I didnt think they made adequate game plan adjustments in periods 2 and 3. Karl can comment about the Htown game where they obviously did well in the most unfriendly of environments
Rapids was short three players this weekend, two of which will be second liners, I believe.WestMetro wrote:Great writeup Karl.
And again, the usual tribute to Green 4 this week for excellent play by play game remarks. The local livestreamers should all consider hiring Green 4 for color commentary
Here are some early season first impression thoughts. In order of Karls rankings. Apologies to anyone in advance, I didnt attempt to balance out positives and negatives, these are just initial thoughts that stuck with me.
o EP should be uncontested #1 all season. A great deep lineup at all positions. Capable of putting up huge points by many people. But, I was surprised Enright was able to shutdown EP last night after 5 quick goals.. A person would have thought EP snipers could have added another 5. This left me a bit puzzled, even though Enright is great. Leivermann has to be sure D zone is protected when he carries the puck in, after all the Eagles already have plenty of offensive weaponry.
o SW overpowered LVS for 2 1/2 periods, but before that, Eisele showed some vulnerablilty with Cory Checco getting 3 fairly unobstructed snipes right by him.
o Planning to see the Elks at Centennial next Saturday. Should be one of best games of season.
o A little disappointed in Thawks, in that I expected them to beat Tonka by 3 goals, especially without Clay Hanus. Their first line is super, when they get a good look , or even a reasonable look, you get a pretty good feeling the puck is going in the net. ( I havent had that level of confidence about good look conversion rates since Nick and Jack Poehling senior
o The Family is doing what they have to do. Great goal tending. One of best D corps in the state controlling blue line and keeping slot clear, and experienced forwards consistently putting puck in net in opportunistic situations
o Wont be seeing Hornets until Braemar tourney. But not surprised they have moved up a bit. Great D and snipers can help things, and goaltending situation looks promising after 4 games.
o Havent seen LVN. Surprised they were able to put up so many goals against expected quality STA goaltending, STA defensive must have fallen down somewhat that game. On the other hand, LVN own goaltending situation is unresolved by giving up too many goals in same game
o A young STA team. Good goaltending against Tonka, apparently less so against LVN. Offense looked a bit disorganized in Tonka game , not unexpected so early, but the older Christy stepped up to get job done. D kept it close against Tonka but apparently couldnt shut down LVN forwards as well.
o Tonka, another young team with great potential. Offense showed opportunistics against STA, but needs to improve puck flow to their fullest great potential as season progresses. Loss of Hanus for season is huge, and best thoughts for him and family on recovery. ( Departure of Dom Picciano hurt this team in short run, even if the long run it works out)
o Excited about this LVS group. Cory Checco could be one of best pure snipers in state with great speed and hard wrister . There are 3-4 others who could get 20-25 points for balanced scoring. DiLaura did well in high pressure situations. Forwards could do a little more forechecking , and Dmen need to keep low slot clear, especially against a top 5 team like SW, where I didnt think they made adequate game plan adjustments in periods 2 and 3. Karl can comment about the Htown game where they obviously did well in the most unfriendly of environments
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Immigrant Fan
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Karl does such a good job with breakdown and rationale for rankings. Tough so early in the season and so few views of top teams against each other. Interesting as I've heard a few pucksters recently spout that you can't tell much from Bantam AA anymore as a judge of high school because so many kids leave. Yet going into Bantam AA state tournament 3 years ago, EP was ranked 1st, followed I believe by Stillwater and Elk River (LVS was ranked high as well but upset in regions). Edina was there as well as GR and Wayzata and Hermantown. Only team not in the expected mix in AA High School this year was Woodbury. Semis were Edina v. GR and Stillwater v. Elk. GR won it. Private schools aside, top HS teams this year seem to be EP, Stillwater, Elk, GR, Edina... Wayzata won AA last year and Hermantown A. Hard to argue Bantam AA doesn't mean much...
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WarmUpTheBus
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YouthHockeyHub
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Good take...yes, some years it doesn't translate and others it does. In 2014 here is who played in Bantam AA State:
North: Grand Rapids and Hermantown (cant' remember who Herm beat)
South: Stillwater and Edina (Edina beat LVS to go)
West: Eden Prairie and White Bear Lake (Bears beat Prior Lake to go)
East: Woodbury and Elk River (Elks beat Tonka to go)
Notes:
-I said it on the podcast, WBL has some talent and might give STW and Hill some trouble this year.
-The Edina win over EP was fun to watch - Edina played the perfect game to slay the best team in state that year.
-Woodbury put lightning in a bottle over in Cottage Grove that weekend to make it, they beat Elk River, STMA and Tonka...they were a 14 seed of the 32 BAA Metro teams that year.
-EP beat Hermantown in OT for consolation, take 1 guess who had the GWG.
One thing that gets missed in this "they were good at Bantams so 3 years later they will be good as seniors" theory is the Sophomore effect. Sophs like Jack Jensen and Perbix were playing PeeWees and will have an impact in the top 6. Stillwater isn't bolstered by 10th or 11th graders, that hurts their depth....same with Rapids. Elk River, Edina, PL, EP and Tonka have those guys and by the end of the year will make a difference.
North: Grand Rapids and Hermantown (cant' remember who Herm beat)
South: Stillwater and Edina (Edina beat LVS to go)
West: Eden Prairie and White Bear Lake (Bears beat Prior Lake to go)
East: Woodbury and Elk River (Elks beat Tonka to go)
Notes:
-I said it on the podcast, WBL has some talent and might give STW and Hill some trouble this year.
-The Edina win over EP was fun to watch - Edina played the perfect game to slay the best team in state that year.
-Woodbury put lightning in a bottle over in Cottage Grove that weekend to make it, they beat Elk River, STMA and Tonka...they were a 14 seed of the 32 BAA Metro teams that year.
-EP beat Hermantown in OT for consolation, take 1 guess who had the GWG.
One thing that gets missed in this "they were good at Bantams so 3 years later they will be good as seniors" theory is the Sophomore effect. Sophs like Jack Jensen and Perbix were playing PeeWees and will have an impact in the top 6. Stillwater isn't bolstered by 10th or 11th graders, that hurts their depth....same with Rapids. Elk River, Edina, PL, EP and Tonka have those guys and by the end of the year will make a difference.
Great takes Tony. I forgot it was WBL and not Wayzata. No doubt the younger players have an effect, and the transfers have an effect. My point is Bantam AA is not dead... There are plenty of very good players, and I do believe we lose sight of the fact that the name on the front of the jersey matters... Team and community depth can be lost by the "superstar" players that may stay or leave. Stars help, but team wins. Good teams with stars are tough to beat (EP...).
Your old price was tube steak smothered in underwear....way to step up your game!!green4 wrote:I'll do it for cheap too, someone tell the livestreamers that my services can be bought for a hotdog a gameWestMetro wrote:
And again, the usual tribute to Green 4 this week for excellent play by play game remarks. The local livestreamers should all consider hiring Green 4 for color commentary
Well, I didn't want to intrude with such an offer but, now that the idea is back on the table....edgeless2 wrote:Your old price was tube steak smothered in underwear....way to step up your game!!green4 wrote:I'll do it for cheap too, someone tell the livestreamers that my services can be bought for a hotdog a gameWestMetro wrote:
And again, the usual tribute to Green 4 this week for excellent play by play game remarks. The local livestreamers should all consider hiring Green 4 for color commentary