AA Rankings for 12/11/16

[karl(east)]

For a second week, the rankings seem like a holding pattern as we await some big games and more results. Thankfully, a lot of those will come this week: the Edina Holiday Classic, always a signal that the season is truly rolling along, is as loaded as it’s ever been. We’ll roll through the sections this week, too.

1. Eden Prairie (4-0)
-It was a second week of fun and games for the Eagles, who are clearly setting the bar for the state this season. Now, however, the real tests begin: the Edina Holiday Classic is as loaded as it’s ever been, and they’ll have to prove themselves three nights in a row. A strong weekend could put them well clear of the rest of the field.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #3 Elk River, Fri vs. #4 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #7 Edina

2. Stillwater (4-0)
-Continue to take care of business against mediocre competition, and are making a pretty strong case over the other contenders for #2. Expect more of the same this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. East Ridge, Sat vs. Park (Cottage Grove)

3. Elk River (4-0)
-Took care of Centennial with a workmanlike effort in their first game against a quality team. After viewing I’m a little skeptical of putting them this high, but I also don’t have a compelling reason to move anyone else above them, so they’ll stay put for now. This week should clear all of that up pretty quickly.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. #4 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #7 Edina

4. Grand Rapids (5-0)
-The Rapids stars continue to pile up the points as they roll through northern competition; this team is really the ultimate test of how deep a one-line group can go in today’s AA scene. The Edina Classic is really an ideal test for them, especially as they have to roll those big players out there three nights in a row with no TV timeouts. If they can get through this without any ill effects, the lack of depth won’t be a major concern.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs. vs. #7 Edina, Fri vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #3 Elk River

5. St. Thomas Academy (5-1)
-The Cadets’ defense came to play this past week, as they shut out two weak opponents and beat Holy Family at their own game. If they can keep this up, they’ll be sitting pretty in their 3AA perch. Just one game this week, and they should roll.
This week: Sat at South St. Paul

6. Holy Family (4-1)
-A loss to St. Thomas shows some of the Fire’s limitations offensively, as they struggled to generate much against a team that can give up some goals. The Wayzata game this week is an interesting one; sure, the Trojans have struggled, but another tough defensive team could give the Fire some trouble. They still have some proving to do to earn a spot in the state’s elite.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Sat a Wayzata

7. Edina (3-1)
-The Hornets were off this past week, but drop because Holy Family dropped. On paper they’re probably the worst of the four teams in the Edina Classic, but historically this has been their playground, so we’ll see how they acquit themselves. On a good night, they can certainly beat any of their three opponents.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #4 Grand Rapids, Fri vs. #3 Elk River, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie

8. Minnetonka (3-2)
-After some low-scoring games to start the season, the Skippers broke out as they steamrolled Blaine, and followed it up by scraping by Bloomington Jefferson. Some interesting road trips await them, as they face respectable Maple Grove and a battle with Hermantown.
This week: Thurs at Maple Grove, Fri at Hermantown

9. Lakeville North (2-1)
-After a quality win to start the season, the Panthers came out and lost to Eastview. The win over St. Thomas now looks somewhat better after the Cadets’ win over Holy Family, but we’ll need more results to judge further. The East game this week should be helpful in that regard.
This week: Tues vs. #13 Duluth East, Thurs at Burnsville, Sat at Shakopee

10. Prior Lake (3-0)
-The Lakers aren’t exactly scoring goals with any authority, but they did pick up a quality win when they pulled one out in overtime against Lakeville South. Beatable South Suburban teams await them this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat at Rosemount

11. Lakeville South (3-2-1)
-A narrow loss to Prior Lake keeps the Cougars hovering around the edge of the top ten after their tough early schedule. Things ease up a bit this week, so we’ll see if they can take care of business against weaker competition.
This week: Tues at East Ridge, Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat vs. Eagan

12. Hill-Murray (4-0)
-While the Pioneers have yet to play a top-flight opponent, they’re looking pretty sharp against some decent teams, which bodes well going forward. The Mahtomedi win is a decent quality result, too. They should be able to flatten their conference opponents this week.
This week: Thurs at Tartan, Sat vs. North St. Paul

13. Duluth East (3-1)
-The Hounds got a good win over Bemidji, then found their offense against Andover. They’re displaying some potential with some strong early defense, but their toughest opponent to date awaits Tuesday, and the Cloquet game, as always, has potential to be interesting.
This week: Tues at #9 Lakeville North, Thurs vs. Cloquet

14. Moorhead (4-0)
-Demolished Fargo South to stay undefeated, and weather knocked out their game with Roseau. Two mid-tier opponents are up in the next six days.
This week: Tues at Brainerd, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

15. Centennial (3-1)
-Appeared a step behind Elk River in their loss to the Elks; there’s decent energy here, but they don’t have the front-end talent of a top-flight team. Just one game this week, and it’s one they should win, but it is a rivalry with section implications, so we can’t take it for granted.
This week: Thurs at Blaine

The Next Five, In No Very Serious Order
This is more vague than usual because it’s just hard to say much: in here we have one very talented team that’s struggling, one that’s looking decent but losing to good competition while shorthanded, two that have a quality win but have to a little more to really prove themselves, and one that has yet to play anyone really significant. It gets messy after that, so I’m just cutting it off at five.

Wayzata (1-4)
-The struggles continue for the Trojans, as they drop a tight one to Breck. The talent is there, but the results just aren’t, and we’re at the point where the rankings need to reflect that. They have another one-game week ahead of them, Holy Family will be a tough one, and a good test to see if their offense can generate anything against a top-flight opponent.

White Bear Lake (5-0)
-Rolling along against weaker competition, and continuing to build a case for a ranking. Cretin this week may be the second-best opponent they’ve had to date, and is a chance to improve the record somewhat.

St. Michael-Albertville (3-0)
-The Knights are rolling up some impressive margins of victory; we just await a result against a genuinely good team. That won’t come this week, as they have a couple of middling 8AA teams.

Bemidji (2-2)
-Dropped a tight one to Duluth East, but look like they could be a plenty dangerous tough, defensive squad, especially once Pollock returns to the lineup to give the offense a boost. Class A opponents Thief River Falls and Warroad await, followed by another 8AA foe in Rogers.

Maple Grove (3-1)
-Took care of middling Northwest Suburban competition this past week. The Minnetonka game this week should be a good test of their statewide status, while Blaine on Saturday gives them a chance to stake an early claim on a high seed in 5AA.

Normally I’d wait another week before doing sections, but I’m traveling next weekend and just getting the rankings up will be enough of a challenge, so we’ll do this now and revisit in three weeks instead of two.

1AA
9 Lakeville North
11 Lakeville South
-Early results for North and South basically confirm what we thought coming in: they’re both pretty close and in the same ballpark. Those two don’t meet until January. Nothing of note is really happening in the rest of the section.

2AA
1 Eden Prairie
6 Holy Family
8 Minnetonka
10 Prior Lake
-More or less as expected so far, as the big teams are largely performing to expectations. Minnetonka and Prior Lake play on December 20 in the first game of the year between the big four.

3AA
5 St. Thomas Academy
-With a strong start, the Cadets are all alone here. Eastview beat Lakeville North who beat St. Thomas, so at least by the transitive property, the Lightning now have to be somewhere in the picture for a higher seed, though STA already beat them 5-2. Burnsville hasn’t looked great, but they and Jefferson have done enough that they’re still right there in the battle for a high seed, too.

4AA
2 Stillwater
12 Hill-Murray
HM White Bear Lake
-This section is looking pretty good in the early going. Stillwater is living up to expectations, Hill looks strong, White Bear might be the biggest surprise to date with their win over Duluth East and an undefeated record, and even Woodbury looks competitive. Perhaps it won’t be as much of a Pony cakewalk as we’d thought, though we’ll need some more quality wins from Hill and White Bear to call it a serious race. There’s a very good chance those two will both be undefeated for their meeting on December 22.

5AA
15 Centennial
HM Maple Grove
-Blaine’s early struggles have Maple Grove sitting pretty here, and Centennial certainly didn’t do anything to suggest they’re clear of the Crimson, either. The Bengals are still probably the default #3 in a thin section. The Bengals play both Centennial and Maple Grove this week, so we should understand where they stand shortly.

6AA
7 Edina
HM Wayzata
-With an early win over Wayzata and the Trojans’ general struggles, Edina is in the driver’s seat early. But, there’s so much time and so many more games here that we can’t say much. Cretin is probably doing enough to move ahead of Benilde for #3 at this point, but they don’t play, so the whole season will matter in that battle.

7AA
3 Elk River
4 Grand Rapids
13 Duluth East
-No major action here yet. This week will be huge, though, as Elk River and Grand Rapids battle for the pole position and East-Cloquet on Thursday. Marshall and East also play next week, so we’ll have a better idea of where the Hounds stand in relation to the more aspirational tier of 7AA.

8AA
14 Moorhead
HM St. Michael-Albertville
HM Bemidji
-This one is looking pretty competitive three-way race. Moorhead got the first win over Bemidji, but not in a fashion that really settles anything; they play again in the season’s final week. STMA appears plenty sharp, and should be right there with the Spuds and the Jacks, though we’re waiting for some games against quality competition to learn what their ceiling really is.

We should be able to say some more definitive things a week from now. Catch you then.

[hockeygirl2]

great job once again. When I look at your section rankings I couldn't help but wonder why the MSHSL does not realign the sections for hockey. Some are almost always too easy, and some are always hard. Coming out of Section 2 is like winning the State Tournament. There has to be an easier way to posit the teams up.

But I digress. I wish I could be at Braemer this weekend.

[elliott70]

Coming out of Section 2 is like winning the State Tournament.

Huh?

[kniven]

great job once again. When I look at your section rankings I couldn't help but wonder why the MSHSL does not realign the sections for hockey. Some are almost always too easy, and some are always hard. Coming out of Section 2 is like winning the State Tournament. There has to be an easier way to posit the teams up.

But I digress. I wish I could be at Braemer this weekend.

As always.....excellent read Karl!

[karl(east)]

FYI, Lee posted the first PS2 update today: http://minnhock.com/ps2017.htm

[north_bear]

FYI, Lee posted the first PS2 update today: http://minnhock.com/ps2017.htm

1. GR
2. Eden Prairie
3. St Thomas
4. Holy Family
5. Hill Murray

[blueblood]

Richfield at #30? They are playing a JV schedule schedule as co-op with Southwest Christian

[hockeygirl2]

I meant section 2aa almost always has 3 per 4 teams in top 10 unlike the other sections that's all.

The rankings after about 10 on Minnhockey are interesting read but mostly waaaaayyyyyyyy off.

[O-townClown]

I meant section 2aa almost always has 3 per 4 teams in top 10 unlike the other sections that's all.

For sure. Section 6 when it had Wayzata, B-SM, Eden Prairie, Minnetonka in it was as strong as the actual State field for a few years.

[east hockey]

Richfield at #30? They are playing a JV schedule schedule as SCI-op with Southwest Christian

This was a mistake. I had them losing 2-0 to SPA on 12/6. Looking at their schedule at mnhockeyhub.com, they only have two games scheduled. They'll be taken off the list at my first convenience. In other words, next Sunday

Lee

[twincitiespuckmind]

Any updates on Nick Lievermann for Eden Prairie, noticed that he wasn't in the box score/playing versus Benilde?