AA Rankings for 1/15/17

HockeyonFire · Post by **HockeyonFire** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:16 pm

Clarkkent wrote:
hockeygirl2 wrote:Nice job Karl. Great thoughts on Lee and Eden Prairie strategy. Makes sense. A lot of teams seem to try and put their focus on the regular season and overplay their players before the playoffs. Two bad things happen when coaches do that and that is the kids get worn down and don't develop everyone. You can't win playing two lines in sections and state. Many coaches overlook this during the season.
Ya, Lee doesn't ever overplay his horses during the regular season

Ya, Lee doesn't' ever overplay his horses during the regular season. Also to the Hill Murray fan, the Family beat Edina so if anyone deserves to be #3 it is the Family. Hill's best win is a win against a limping STA squad

BlueLineSpecial · Post by **BlueLineSpecial** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:21 pm

HockeyonFire wrote:
Clarkkent wrote:
hockeygirl2 wrote:Nice job Karl. Great thoughts on Lee and Eden Prairie strategy. Makes sense. A lot of teams seem to try and put their focus on the regular season and overplay their players before the playoffs. Two bad things happen when coaches do that and that is the kids get worn down and don't develop everyone. You can't win playing two lines in sections and state. Many coaches overlook this during the season.
Ya, Lee doesn't ever overplay his horses during the regular season
Ya, Lee doesn't' ever overplay his horses during the regular season. Also to the Hill Murray fan, the Family beat Edina so if anyone deserves to be #3 it is the Family. Hill's best win is a win against a limping STA squad

Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?

HockeyonFire · Post by **HockeyonFire** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:32 pm

/quote]

Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?[/quote]

HF resume: vs. Edina W, vs. Maple Grove W, Grand Rapids W,
at Blaine W, at Delano W, at Wayzata W,

vs. Lakeville North T,

Hill resume: STA W, Mahtomedi W, at Mahtomedi W,

vs. EP T, at Tartan T, at WBL T

Yeah....

BlueLineSpecial · Post by **BlueLineSpecial** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:38 pm

HockeyonFire wrote:/quote]

Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?

HF resume: vs. Edina W, vs. Maple Grove W, Grand Rapids W,
at Blaine W, at Delano W, at Wayzata W,

vs. Lakeville North T,

Hill resume: STA W, Mahtomedi W, at Mahtomedi W,

vs. EP T, at Tartan T, at WBL T

Yeah....[/quote]

HF has the better resume. But wayzata? Good call on beating that 5-9 team as a signature win

WestMetro · Post by **WestMetro** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:27 pm

Great job Karl, and very tough few weeks to keep things logical and in harmony.

Agree with others that said MH might be a little underrated.

Last time I looked, I think Randklev, Oconnell and Stetz were all over 25 points
so theyve got some great offensive weaponry.

And Kosobud and Frisch are top Dmen

Leonard is 91%

I always look forward to their trips down to the West Metro

I think we will see them at the X this year.

Goldyismoldy · Post by **Goldyismoldy** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:44 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
By the way, everyone makes the 'Hill plays a soft schedule' argument. Based on conference it's harder for them some seasons to compile an ultra challenging strength of schedule. But they typically do a good job of tough scheduling. Here is Karl's top 10 and the number of games where that team won or tied a team in Karl's top 15 + bubble teams (top 20 teams):

Stillwater 2
Edina 7
ER 5
HM 5
Centennial 6
EP 4
HF 5
LN 6
STA 4
GR 4

Hills wins/ties against good competition is right in line with every other top 10 team.

A tough schedule isn't just wins and ties, its games played. The first # is games played against Karl's AA top 15.

2 Stillwater (13-1)
8 Edina (11-3-1)
8 Elk River (12-3)
4 Hill-Murray (10-1-3)
8 Centennial (10-3)
8 Eden Prairie (9-4-2)
7 Holy Family (10-3-2)
5 Lakeville North (10-2-2)
7 St. Thomas Academy (11-4-1)
6 Grand Rapids (10-4-1)
6 Maple Grove (10-3)
5 White Bear Lake (9-3-2)
7 Duluth East (8-5-1)
7 Minnetonka (9-6)
8 Blaine (8-5-1)

Post by **karl(east)** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:44 pm

Good discussion flowing today. A couple quick responses:

ER vs. Hill at 3/4: as others have said, strength of schedule--or, perhaps better said, quality wins--is what made the difference. Elky has 5 wins I'd consider quality (Cent, EP, GR, LVN, Blaine), plus losses to the top two and another top 10 team (though 2 of them were lopsided). Hill has one (STA), maybe three if you argue that the two over Burnsville should count. Their lone loss is to a lower-ranked team than anyone ER has lost to, and they tied an EP team that ER beat. (The other ties don't really affect them one way or the other; WBL isn't a bad tie, and they avenged the Tartan tie convincingly last week.)

The answer to the Moorhead and White Bear Lake arguments is basically the same: I'm a little lower than some on those two due to the lack of consistently. Obviously, they've shown flashes: WBL is 1-0-2 against the top 5, and Moorhead's blown out two of the 2AA top three. But the bad results are also in there. White Bear has lost to Cretin and Woodbury, who (whatever QRF says) are not top tier teams; they're beating some of the bad teams on their schedule by very narrow margins. the Spuds lost to Brainerd and Prior Lake and tied Alexandria; their other two non-wins, a Roseau loss and the Breck tie, aren't great, but don't scream top 15, either. That's a lot of results that raise some questions, which you just don't see from most of the top 15. I trust consistent teams a lot more than the inconsistent ones.

The other thing I look for at this point in the regular season is momentum, but momentum needs to involve more than one game. Edina is rolling, so no one denies they belong at #2; Rapids has won just one of their last five, so no one has any real objections to their fall. A team like Moorhead, on the other hand, followed up their first big win over HF with a loss to otherwise disappointing Prior Lake, and tied Breck after the Tonka win--again, not bad, but not great, either. They're exciting, they're talented, and I like them to win 8AA...but they've shown no consistency yet, period.

BlueLineSpecial · Post by **BlueLineSpecial** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:51 pm

Goldyismoldy wrote:
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
By the way, everyone makes the 'Hill plays a soft schedule' argument. Based on conference it's harder for them some seasons to compile an ultra challenging strength of schedule. But they typically do a good job of tough scheduling. Here is Karl's top 10 and the number of games where that team won or tied a team in Karl's top 15 + bubble teams (top 20 teams):

Stillwater 2
Edina 7
ER 5
HM 5
Centennial 6
EP 4
HF 5
LN 6
STA 4
GR 4

Hills wins/ties against good competition is right in line with every other top 10 team.
A tough schedule isn't just wins and ties, its games played. The first # is games played against Karl's AA top 15.

2 Stillwater (13-1)
8 Edina (11-3-1)
8 Elk River (12-3)
4 Hill-Murray (10-1-3)
8 Centennial (10-3)
8 Eden Prairie (9-4-2)
7 Holy Family (10-3-2)
5 Lakeville North (10-2-2)
7 St. Thomas Academy (11-4-1)
6 Grand Rapids (10-4-1)
6 Maple Grove (10-3)
5 White Bear Lake (9-3-2)
7 Duluth East (8-5-1)
7 Minnetonka (9-6)
8 Blaine (8-5-1)

Agreed SOS is more than wins/ties, its games played. When you look at SOS by itself. But when you're trying to determine rankings of teams based a lot on SOS, wins/ties are what matters. BSM and Wayzata have tougher schedules than several of the top 15. But no one is talking about why they aren't in the discussion. And that's because they aren't winning (or tying) those challenging games.

Anyhow, I've spent an inordinate amount of time looking at teams schedules today. And in doing this I agree that Hills schedule to this point is worse than a good percent of the top 10 teams. So maybe they do belong below the HFs and EPs and Centennials of the world. Edina/ER/MP over the next two weeks will tell us a lot.

Thanks GisM for pulling the above numbers. Fun to see and it takes a little time to pull that kind of thing together. More than 'Hill sucks' anyway

Goldyismoldy · Post by **Goldyismoldy** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:59 pm

I'm starting to wonder why Stillwater is in the top 10...

Goldyismoldy · Post by **Goldyismoldy** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:02 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote: More than 'Hill sucks' anyway

I save that one for Sparlimb.

Sparlimb · Post by **Sparlimb** » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:54 pm

HockeyonFire wrote:
Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?

HF resume: vs. Edina W, vs. Maple Grove W, Grand Rapids W,
at Blaine W, at Delano W, at Wayzata W,

vs. Lakeville North T and a grand total of 0 trips to state, ever

Hill resume: STA W, Mahtomedi W, at Mahtomedi W,

vs. EP T, at Tartan T, at WBL T

Yeah....[/quote]

FIFY

green4 · Post by **green4** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:11 pm

HockeyonFire wrote:
Clarkkent wrote:
hockeygirl2 wrote:Nice job Karl. Great thoughts on Lee and Eden Prairie strategy. Makes sense. A lot of teams seem to try and put their focus on the regular season and overplay their players before the playoffs. Two bad things happen when coaches do that and that is the kids get worn down and don't develop everyone. You can't win playing two lines in sections and state. Many coaches overlook this during the season.
Ya, Lee doesn't ever overplay his horses during the regular season
Ya, Lee doesn't' ever overplay his horses during the regular season. Also to the Hill Murray fan, the Family beat Edina so if anyone deserves to be #3 it is the Family. Hill's best win is a win against a limping STA squad

I have to respectfully disagree on HF being worthy of #3. They just got plastered by Moorhead and even if we think the spuds are underrated, that loss is too ugly.

blueblood · Post by **blueblood** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:26 pm

Greeny:

Thanks for input on HF and the Spuds. When are week 7 results coming out?

Goldyismoldy · Post by **Goldyismoldy** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:38 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
HockeyonFire wrote:
Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?
HF resume: vs. Edina W, vs. Maple Grove W, Grand Rapids W,
at Blaine W, at Delano W, at Wayzata W,

vs. Lakeville North T and a grand total of 0 trips to state, ever

Hill resume: STA W, Mahtomedi W, at Mahtomedi W,

vs. EP T, at Tartan T, at WBL T

Yeah....

FIFY[/quote]

"Hill sucks"

BlueLineSpecial · Post by **BlueLineSpecial** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:43 pm

Goldyismoldy wrote:
Sparlimb wrote:
HockeyonFire wrote:
Would that be the same limping STA squad Holy Family lost to?
HF resume: vs. Edina W, vs. Maple Grove W, Grand Rapids W,
at Blaine W, at Delano W, at Wayzata W,

vs. Lakeville North T and a grand total of 0 trips to state, ever

Hill resume: STA W, Mahtomedi W, at Mahtomedi W,

vs. EP T, at Tartan T, at WBL T

Yeah....
FIFY

"Hill sucks"[/quote]

lol I was waiting for that one all day

Goldyismoldy · Post by **Goldyismoldy** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:49 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
lol I was waiting for that one all day

Just got home. Sparlimb is another guy that "married up". Like I said, opposites attract.

Sparlimb · Post by **Sparlimb** » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:27 pm

Goldyismoldy wrote:
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
lol I was waiting for that one all day
Just got home. Sparlimb is another guy that "married up". Like I said, opposites attract.

Found myself a nice Harding girl. Public skewl all the way!!!

goldy313 · Post by **goldy313** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:12 am

Page2stat has Hill Murray at #2, just sayin.....

Section 8 guy · Post by **Section 8 guy** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 4:40 am

elliott70 wrote:You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...

Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Im probably biased but agree with a lot of this.......although I'm a week out on St. Mikes yet.

In regards to consistency, hard to say Moorhead and WBL are inconsistent and not fully apply the same label to Rapids. At least with the first two a good chunk of their sins are a while back. Also agree with Holy Family being a handful of notches too high.

Great read as always Karl!

Sparlimb · Post by **Sparlimb** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 7:58 am

goldy313 wrote:Page2stat has Hill Murray at #2, just sayin.....

HAL likes HM. That said, Hill's hard part of the schedule is about to start. So there won't be any questions about how good they are in about 2 weeks. And the beauty of high school hockey is we start a big tournament after the regular season and even the worst team has a chance.