AA Rankings for 12/24/17

[karl(east)]

1. Edina (8-0)
-A shorthanded Hornet squad got a bit of a test from Cretin, but these things are all relative for Edina so far this season, and in the end, it was another three-goal win against a top ten team. Next they face their biggest test to date, as we get our first 1-vs.-2 battle of the season on neutral ice.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold, starting Tues vs. #2 Minnetonka

2. Minnetonka (8-0-1)
-The Skippers pasted Jefferson and took care of Chaska this past week. Now we’ll see what they’re made of when they head into the Schwan Cup: if they can’t compete with the Hornets, can anyone?
This week: Schwan Cup Gold, starting Tues vs. #1 Edina

3. St. Thomas Academy (6-1)
-The Cadets continue to shore up their elite credentials as they blasted rival Hill-Murray into running time. They have a lay-up in the first round of the Schwan Cup, and presuming they make the final, they’ll have their chance to show they’re on par with one of the two teams that’s currently above them.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold, starting Tues vs. Burnsville

4. Duluth East (6-0-2)
-The Hounds certainly made things adventurous this week, but they did walk away with three wins against quality opponents. The issues they encounter seem to change by the game, which leaves some uncertainty going forward. Just one game this week, and it’s against an opponent they should beat, but again is capable of adding some intrigue.
This week: Sat vs. Blaine

5. White Bear Lake (7-0-2)
-The Bears nailed down their first regular season win over Hill-Murray in over a decade to cement frontrunner status in 4AA. They didn’t take out the Pioneers in the way some other teams have, but it was an important win for morale. They should make it through December undefeated before a meeting with Edina in early January.
This week: Thurs at Bloomington Jefferson

6. Centennial (5-1-1)
-The Cougars suffered their first loss of the season in a competitive game with Duluth East. While they didn’t generate a ton of offense there’s not much shame in that either, so they’ll hold steady in the rankings. Hill actually looks like a pretty friendly first-round Schwan Cup draw right now, but if they get past that one, the real tests will begin.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold, starting Tues vs. Hill-Murray

7. Holy Family (7-2-1)
-The Fire is starting to burn a bit brighter, as it steamed past a decent Maple Grove team for a fourth straight win. They have a fairly tough draw for the jamboree in Prior Lake, and that Moorhead game in particular could strengthen their top ten standing.
This week: Hockey for Life Classic—Thurs vs. #15 Elk River, Fri vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. #9 Moorhead

8. Cretin-Derham Hall (5-2-1)
-Put up a respectable showing in a loss to Edina, so they don’t drop at all for that. On paper they look to be on a collision course with Mahtomedi in the Schwan Cup Silver, though their first round game isn’t a free pass, and their side of the bracket is certainly the more difficult one, with Breck or Buffalo awaiting in the second round.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver, starting Tues vs. St. Louis Park

9. Moorhead (7-3)
-Reason for concern for the Spuds? After a loss to Cloquet, they’ve now dropped games against the three best non-section opponents they’ve played. They’ve taken care of business in the 8AA, but their shot at a high state seed is slipping away. They have a pretty favorable draw in the Hockey for Life tournament, but that Holy Family game is going to be big for regaining some statewide cred.
This week: Hockey for Life Classic—Thurs vs. Chaska, Fri vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. #7 Holy Family

10. Duluth Marshall (6-2-1)
-After taking Duluth East to overtime and giving Minnetonka a pretty good run as well, the Hilltoppers are proving they’re a legitimate contender. They’re probably thinner than all the teams above them, but they’ve got a couple of stars and everyone else knows their roles. If they can win their holiday tournament, in which they have a fairly favorable draw, they’ll further solidify this position.
This week: Hilltopper Holiday Classic, starting Wed vs. Anoka

11. Wayzata (4-3-1)
-Just when I was about to say nice things about the Trojans and how they were avoiding last season’s December follies this year, they go and lose to Blake. They’re a new entrant in the Hilltopper Holiday Classic this coming season, so we’ll see how they stack up against mostly northern competition, including an interesting opener.
This week: Hilltopper Holiday Classic, starting Wed vs. #14 Cloquet

12. Eden Prairie (4-3)
-Slipped past an okay Blaine team, which will keep them in roughly the same spot for another week; while they haven’t done anything terribly impressive yet, their losses are to good teams, and I prefer to reward consistency over what some of the teams right below them have been doing.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold, starting Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville

13. Stillwater (5-0)
-The Ponies are undefeated, though still very much untested outside of the Cloquet game. That one is looking better after the Jacks’ recent success, so I feel compelled to move them up despite the lack of good measuring sticks here. This week should give us a much better purchase on reality.
This week: Hockey for Life Classic—Thurs vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Fri vs. #15 Elk River, Sat vs. Lakeville North

14. Cloquet (7-3-1)
-The Lumberjacks are a bit of an enigma right now: they’ve got a win over Moorhead and a tie with Duluth East, but they also have losses to Stillwater and Superior. They were outshot badly in those two games against top ten teams, but my December mantra is usually that one can be a fluke but two is a trend. They’ve got the talent to finish the opportunities they get, and could prove a lot more with a strong weekend in Duluth.
This week: Hilltopper Holiday Classic, starting Wed vs. #11 Wayzata

15. Elk River (6-3)
-Followed up their strong week in the Holiday Classic with a loss to Maple Grove and a narrow escape against Anoka, and while they did outshoot the Crimson and Tornadoes by a lot, this team has been giving up goals in bunches against good competition, so I’m not inclined to write that off. The offensive potential is there, as they showed against Edina, but the résumé does not scream top ten otherwise. All three of their games this week could be interesting, with the first of them carrying the most weight for rankings.
This week: Hockey for Life Classic—Thurs vs. #7 Holy Family, Fri vs. #13 Stillwater, Sat vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s

The Next 12 (Because it’s Christmas and I’m feeling generous)

Maple Grove (4-3-2)
-Got a nice win over Elk River, but couldn’t get much going against Holy Family, and they slip out of the top 15 as someone had to make way for Cloquet. They’re getting outshot and often by a lot in all their big games, but Ethan Haider can make anything interesting, and they’ve got a couple of quality results mixed in here to keep them on the fring5e of the top 15. They just get to sit and watch as the holiday tournament carnage unfolds around them.

Lakeville North (3-4-1)
-The Panthers rebounded from a loss to Apple Valley with a win over a pretty good Eagan team and a competitive showing against Duluth East. With Prior Lake, Chaska, and Stillwater coming up in the draw, it’s not hard to imagine them having a strong Hockey for Life Tournament.

Andover (7-1)
-Time to give the Huskies some due: they have a first quality win now after a solid performance against Blaine, and that lone loss, 9-3 to Duluth East, wasn’t nearly as bad as the final scoreline made it look. They’re certainly in the hunt for a home game in the 7AA playoffs, and could shore up their section credentials with good results against Forest Lake and Grand Rapids this week.

Brainerd (5-2)
-Not a bad week for the Warriors, who beat a good A team in Alexandria and rolled past Grand Rapids. They continue to beat the teams they should beat. Up next: the Hilltopper Holiday Classic, opening with section rival Bemidji.

St. Michael-Albertville (6-1)
-Hammered North Branch in their lone game this past week. They now embark on their inaugural Schwan Cup Gold adventure, which will be trial by fire, though they are at least on a somewhat more favorable side of the bracket, and will face Eden Prairie first.

Blaine (3-3-2)
-Tough week for the Bengals, who lost to Andover and gave Eden Prairie a competitive game before falling as well. They make the trip to Duluth to play East this week.

Hill-Murray (4-3-2)
-This was not one of the finer weeks in Hill history, as they were put in running time by St. Thomas and fell to rival White Bear as well. They’re right back at it with the Schwan Cup Gold, beginning with Centennial.

St. Louis Park (3-3-1)
-Not a bad start for the Orioles, whose losses are all to top 10 teams, and have a win over Lakeville South. The tie to Benilde isn’t helpful for those of us trying to sort out section seeds, but there’s a rematch in February to give us a second crack at that.

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-5-1)
-The tie to arena-mates St. Louis Park was the Red Knights’ lone action this past week. A tough set of Hockey for Life games awaits them next, including Stillwater, Holy Family, and Elk River. Any sort of positive result there probably helps them.

Eagan (6-2)
-Good record and a wins over Eastview and Lakeville South push the Wildcats toward the top of the South Suburban, though the loss to Lakeville North keeps them from making any sort of larger leap. As usual, they’re in the South St. Paul tournament this week.

Eastview (7-3)
-Took care of some middling competition this past week. They now continue with a comparatively easy stretch with games against Champlin Park and Shakopee.

Blake (5-3)
-A win over Wayzata grabs the Bears some attention, and they’ve beaten Orono as well recently. If they can continue to build on this, they could play their way into a higher seed in 6AA. They’re idle this coming week.

[WestMetro]

Excellent report!

(But what happened to Chaska? They had a decent showing against Tonka)

[ryguyMN]

Excellent report!

(But what happened to Chaska? They had a decent showing against Tonka)

I've seen recaps stating that Minnetonka blew by Chaska, but had a friend at the game that was impressed with Chaska and thought they played better as the game went on. They were sort of nipping at the Skippers heels the whole game to keep the score close, despite being outshot by 25 when it was over.

Have to give Karl props for putting together a list this week. I had the same top five, but drew a blank between 6 and 10. With Christmas and now Schwan's Cup action today, I haven't given this week much thought because the landscape is going to change again over the next three days.

[HockeyonFire]

MNHSPuck Top 25+1 (Based on what a team has done with their schedule up to Dec. 25)

1. Edina 8-0
2. Tonka 8-0-1
3. STA 6-1
4. Duluth East 6-0-2
5. WBL 7-0-2
6. Centennial 5-1-1
7. Holy Family 7-2-1
8. Stillwater 5-0 *beat Cloquet
9. Cloquet 7-3-1 *TIED Duluth East, beat Moorhead
10. Moorhead 7-3
11. Duluth Marshall 6-2-1 *only losses to Tonka and East.
12. Andover 7-1 *only loss to East, beat Blaine 5-3
13. Wayzata 4-3-1 *beat CDH
14. CDH 5-2-1 *won at EP
15. Elk River 6-3 *beat EP 5-4 (ot)
16. EP 4-3 *beat Blaine in ot
17. Blaine 3-3-2 *beat MG
18. Maple Grove 4-3-2
19. STMA 6-1
20. Brainerd 5-2 *beat BSM
21. BSM 3-5-1 *beat LN
22. LN 3-4-1 *beat Eagan
23. Eagan 6-2
24. Chaska 6-2 *losses to Tonka and Sartell, no good wins
25. Eastview 7-3 *beat Hill 5-1
26. Hill-Murray 4-3-2 *no defining wins

[CakeScout17]

So, #1, #2 and #5 in one bracket and STA alone in top bracket?
Maybe this is slotted earlier in the Fall, but wouldn't you bracket this about 7-10 days out and balance brackets for a (theoretically) higher quality tourney?

Interested in seeing Centennial...Having seen all the STA and Tonka kids at Fall Elite league I know how strong those teams are - and BOTH with top-notch goalies.

Hornets better buckle up!

Good luck and health to ALL!

[HShockeywatcher]

So, #1, #2 and #5 in one bracket and STA alone in top bracket?
Maybe this is slotted earlier in the Fall, but wouldn't you bracket this about 7-10 days out and balance brackets for a (theoretically) higher quality tourney?

Interested in seeing Centennial...Having seen all the STA and Tonka kids at Fall Elite league I know how strong those teams are - and BOTH with top-notch goalies.

Hornets better buckle up!

Good luck and health to ALL!

Holiday tournaments are generally slated months in advance. Also, from what people say, often the first round games are requested by the schools for various reasons, usually section match ups. St Thomas and Burnsville, for example, are in the same section and likely want to make sure they have a section matchup. Not sure about the rest of the match ups; Eden Prairie, Edina and Minnetonka are in the same conference so it would make sense for them to all have played the other 3 teams first round, since Tonka and EP are the only other two in the same section. No idea beyond that...

[Teak]

Minnetonka 5-2 Edina

That should change the stinkin’ Rankings, eh?

[MNHockeyFan]

Minnetonka 5-2 Edina

That should change the stinkin’ Rankings, eh?

Just looking at the box score it was no fluke, either. Tonka outshot the Hornets 34-16.

[karl(east)]

Impressive win by Minnetonka tonight.

I'll be honest...I've seen Edina twice, and have not been terribly impressed. Granted, these two games (Elk River and Minnetonka) were probably the worst two they've played, but they've been sloppy at best in back, both in terms of D and goaltending. And while they seemed very deep in some of their early wins, I wonder how much of that is a function of splitting their two sure Mr. Hockey finalists on to different lines. It's an effective way of overwhelming less deep opponents, but when you start matching them up against the forward groups that Tonka, DE, and STA throw out there, I'm not sure it's as much of an advantage.

Sure, they are very good; they still may well be the best team in the state. We'll see how they gameplan for meetings 2 and 3 with the Skippers. But I was certainly never on the "undefeated, let's compare them to the 90s Jags" train. These things will happen over the course of a season, and we'll see how they respond.

Meanwhile, Tonka made us all sit up and pay attention today...good balance, top players leading as they should, great in transition, D making smart decisions, and solid goaltending out of Glockner. If they can close things out in the Schwan Cup, they'll be #1 next week, though I wouldn't be surprised to see STA give them a good run again, if it comes down to those two on Thursday.

Also, picking up on some other stray notes, Chaska probably does belong somewhere in the top 28, or however deep it is I'm going these days. And Centennial's tie with Hill today certainly doesn't help the Cougars' case for a top-6 spot, though someone else needs to do something in that group beyond to move up, too. As ryguy notes, it's not especially pretty right now...Wayzata's struggling, Marshall has no real quality AA wins, CDH just barely slipped by St. Louis Park (not bad for the Orioles)...Holy Family is probably the team I feel best about in that group right now, but we'll see what they bring in Prior Lake later this week. I never really feel good about these things until after the holiday tournaments wrap up.

[O-townClown]

Well stated as always, Karl.

First off, Minnetonka is a very good team that had a great night. I saw their game versus Chaska a few days ago and they hit 4 posts, Hawks buried a breakaway on one of their few chances, and it seemed like a closer game than it was because of a 3-2 score late. Today, no missed opportunities and Minnetonka pulled away from Edina.

The turning point came early. Up 2-1 and on a power play late in the 1st, an Edina defenseman lofted a pass that Molenaar knocked out of the air to create a blue line down breakaway that he converted. 2nd period was ALL Minnetonka. (Edina was credited with 5 shots and four came on one shift.)

Same two teams could play tomorrow and it might be a different outcome, but make no mistake Minnetonka won today because they are at least as good as the Hornets and tonight were so much better for all the reasons Karl points out.

Edina needs to understand that against a strong team the careless risks may catch up to them. Against most it won't matter as the opponent may not be good enough to capitalize and if they do Edina can probably just outscore them.

I'd say 4 kids that previously had looked outstanding were very ordinary tonight. It's only against the best teams that weaknesses are evident.

[ryguyMN]

Even the top three now raise questions. Is STA the new #2 because of the better showing against Minnetonka compared to Edina, but because STA vs Minnetonka was the first game of the year for both schools, does it lose some weight?

[O-townClown]

Even the top three now raise questions. Is STA the new #2 because of the better showing against Minnetonka compared to Edina, but because STA vs Minnetonka was the first game of the year for both schools, does it lose some weight?

Does it matter? In another two days one of those teams will have another loss.

[ryguyMN]

Even the top three now raise questions. Is STA the new #2 because of the better showing against Minnetonka compared to Edina, but because STA vs Minnetonka was the first game of the year for both schools, does it lose some weight?

Does it matter? In another two days one of those teams will have another loss.

True. I got caught up in the #1 vs #2 business. I momentarily forgot there were other games in the tournament.