AA Rankings for 12/31/17

[That guy for that thing]

East: Oldtimer, the Hounds have been tough to read so far, even for someone who watches most of their games. There's been some continued line-juggling, though not a ton. The lower lines generate great zone time but the finishing has been lacking. The top line has moments where it looks untouchable, but a couple of its members seem to wander into and out of games a bit more than they should. Goaltending remains uncertain. I've never seen a team that's undefeated feel less undefeated than this one...at least they've done well mentally and haven't coughed any of these games up. Really curious to see what they do on Saturday at Pagel, which has been a house of horrors for East in the past.

Tough to top that analysis. But I would add that the amount of time East appears loose and disorganized - mostly in their own end, but plenty of times all over the rink - ought to be of some concern. Even the WMD line has had issues with this. Plenty of time to work through it but with the amount of returning players East has, all familiar with the System, they should be more disciplined.

I also do not think if would be unreasonable to break up the WMD line here and there. Dropping Mageau to the second line and bumping up Lyle to work with Worth and Donovan, for example. A second line of Mageau, Baker/Anderson, Lanigan would rock.

Lastly, is Donovan just not a goal scorer? The kid is too skilled, too physically gifted and too much of a presence in the offensive end to not be more of a finisher. He's piling up the assists, but 2 goals (please correct if wrong ) in 9 games as the first line center seems way low.

I think that line combination suggestion is worth tinkering with.

Donovan did have a somewhat more normal goals-to-assists ratio last season, and had about even numbers of goals and assists in the Elite League. He certainly can score himself; it's just not happening a ton yet this season. There are times when I think he should go to the net more.

Question with this, Lyle and Worth are both left wingers? Who gets moved over. Would putting Lyle on the right set him up for some back door one timers or would it spur Lyle setting up Donovan some more.

Donovan lacking goals and racking assists, I think, is because both Mageau and Worth are scoring. Someone has to set him up. Put a set up man like Lyle with Donovan and worth and we could see Donovan's scoring abilities reappear.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name? Not just Karl's rankings, most people have them in the top 10. I know they brought St. Thomas into OT, but their best win of the season so far is Brainerd or STMA. Their losses (other than Lakeville South) are all to solid teams, but I have to wonder if a less traditional team like Buffalo or St. Cloud had their exact results, would they be in the top 10?

It's a long season, and their Lake Conference schedule should sort this out, but right now at least they seem to be in the mid-late teens range. Put it this way, if I'm Holy Family, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the 2 seed in section 2AA.

[O-townClown]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name?

Very good observation. Hasn't been a great run thus far.

[HockeyonFire]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name?

Very good observation. Hasn't been a great run thus far.

. Lakeville South secures the 1-seed in section one after that 6-1 win against Eden Prairie. Goalie and defense continues to be a problem in Ep. Don’t count out prior lake. Ep at prior lake Thursday. A Laker Win gives Pl a great chance at the 3 seed.

[ryguyMN]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name? Not just Karl's rankings, most people have them in the top 10. I know they brought St. Thomas into OT, but their best win of the season so far is Brainerd or STMA. Their losses (other than Lakeville South) are all to solid teams, but I have to wonder if a less traditional team like Buffalo or St. Cloud had their exact results, would they be in the top 10?

It's a long season, and their Lake Conference schedule should sort this out, but right now at least they seem to be in the mid-late teens range. Put it this way, if I'm Holy Family, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the 2 seed in section 2AA.

The showing against St. Thomas got EP into the top ten. Who else do you put at #10? Do you run a lottery or pick a name out of a hat with the five or six other teams all grouped with EP (Wayzata, Duluth Marshall, Cloquet, Elk River, etc.)? I'm being half serious as there is so much parity right now with this part of the rankings.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name?

Very good observation. Hasn't been a great run thus far.

. Lakeville South secures the 1-seed in section one after that 6-1 win against Eden Prairie. Goalie and defense continues to be a problem in Ep. Don’t count out prior lake. Ep at prior lake Thursday. A Laker Win gives Pl a great chance at the 3 seed.

HockeyonFire, good point with the PL/EP battle. However, Lakeville South and North still play twice. A draw and you may be correct (though they still have a lot of common opponents left, and South hasn't exactly wow'd with some marginal losses and a tie to Chan), but North can still lock up the 1-seed with a sweep of South.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name? Not just Karl's rankings, most people have them in the top 10. I know they brought St. Thomas into OT, but their best win of the season so far is Brainerd or STMA. Their losses (other than Lakeville South) are all to solid teams, but I have to wonder if a less traditional team like Buffalo or St. Cloud had their exact results, would they be in the top 10?

It's a long season, and their Lake Conference schedule should sort this out, but right now at least they seem to be in the mid-late teens range. Put it this way, if I'm Holy Family, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the 2 seed in section 2AA.

The showing against St. Thomas got EP into the top ten. Who else do you put at #10? Do you run a lottery or pick a name out of a hat with the five or six other teams all grouped with EP (Wayzata, Duluth Marshall, Cloquet, Elk River, etc.)? I'm being half serious as there is so much parity right now with this part of the rankings.

Good point. I'm now stumped. You could jumble around the 9-15 teams on Karl's rankings and make an argument either way. I guess the point I'm making is that EP has benefited from a relatively high pre-season ranking given all of their unknowns.

[mnmouth]

Tough to top that analysis. But I would add that the amount of time East appears loose and disorganized - mostly in their own end, but plenty of times all over the rink - ought to be of some concern. Even the WMD line has had issues with this. Plenty of time to work through it but with the amount of returning players East has, all familiar with the System, they should be more disciplined.

I also do not think if would be unreasonable to break up the WMD line here and there. Dropping Mageau to the second line and bumping up Lyle to work with Worth and Donovan, for example. A second line of Mageau, Baker/Anderson, Lanigan would rock.

Lastly, is Donovan just not a goal scorer? The kid is too skilled, too physically gifted and too much of a presence in the offensive end to not be more of a finisher. He's piling up the assists, but 2 goals (please correct if wrong ) in 9 games as the first line center seems way low.

I think that line combination suggestion is worth tinkering with.

Donovan did have a somewhat more normal goals-to-assists ratio last season, and had about even numbers of goals and assists in the Elite League. He certainly can score himself; it's just not happening a ton yet this season. There are times when I think he should go to the net more.

Question with this, Lyle and Worth are both left wingers? Who gets moved over. Would putting Lyle on the right set him up for some back door one timers or would it spur Lyle setting up Donovan some more.

Donovan lacking goals and racking assists, I think, is because both Mageau and Worth are scoring. Someone has to set him up. Put a set up man like Lyle with Donovan and worth and we could see Donovan's scoring abilities reappear.

Worth as a RH shot must feel more comfortable on the off wing. Maybe Lyle as a LH shot would do well on his off wing, but likely each would be at their natural wing spot. Obviously I have no pipeline to Coach Randolph’s ear, (nor would he listen anyway) but putting a beast worker who’s good in the corners on the top line might be what they need. Mageau on the 2nd line puts a big body scorer with 2 skill guys. We’ll see what happens after the Southern road swing this weekend. Randolph has a ton of options at forward combos.

[Stang5280]

Blake: Another team in Andover's boat in that they could be mentioned (and were last week), but I don't think they clearly belong in the top 25. I'm not wildly impressed by their Orono win; Orono is 42nd in the PageStat, around the likes of Roseau and Bemidji, who I don't think anyone is trying to claim are top 25 teams. That leaves just the Wayzata win, which is good, but with two borderline/questionable losses (Bemidji is 45th in PageStat, Minneapolis 53rd), I don't think it adds up to something too impressive. We're at the point now where I want to see a second quality win out of teams.

After Blake’s 6-2 thrashing of my Mustangs last night, I am begrudgingly becoming a believer in them. This is one of Breck’s weaker teams in recent memory, so I know it doesn’t count as a quality win in that respect, but Blake really seems to be putting things together. The Bears are a very young team, so it makes sense that they would start slowly and improve as the season progresses.

My dad attended the game last night and passed along a few general observations. First, the game had a very different feel from the teams’ recent contests, which Breck had dominated. Breck hung around for the first two periods last night, but there was a sense that Blake could break open the game at any time, which is exactly what happened in the third when they exploded for four goals. Blake is not very deep but their first two lines are good enough to play with nearly anyone. In particular, the two freshman forwards (Miller and Broz) are super talented. They are both still tiny physically, but lightning fast and excellent playmakers and finishers. As with most young teams, Blake is prone to defensive lapses, but their goalie (also a freshman) is very solid.

I certainly scoffed initially upon hearing the news of Blake opting up to AA since they hadn’t even been a contender in Section 2A for several years. Clearly they have completely remade their program, though, and could develop into a 6AA contender sooner than expected. The schedule is a bit weak this year given the high number of single A opponents, so Blake will need to take advantage of the few opportunities on their schedule for quality wins.

[elliott70]

Blake: Another team in Andover's boat in that they could be mentioned (and were last week), but I don't think they clearly belong in the top 25. I'm not wildly impressed by their Orono win; Orono is 42nd in the PageStat, around the likes of Roseau and Bemidji, who I don't think anyone is trying to claim are top 25 teams. That leaves just the Wayzata win, which is good, but with two borderline/questionable losses (Bemidji is 45th in PageStat, Minneapolis 53rd), I don't think it adds up to something too impressive. We're at the point now where I want to see a second quality win out of teams.

After Blake’s 6-2 thrashing of my Mustangs last night, I am begrudgingly becoming a believer in them. This is one of Breck’s weaker teams in recent memory, so I know it doesn’t count as a quality win in that respect, but Blake really seems to be putting things together. The Bears are a very young team, so it makes sense that they would start slowly and improve as the season progresses.

My dad attended the game last night and passed along a few general observations. First, the game had a very different feel from the teams’ recent contests, which Breck had dominated. Breck hung around for the first two periods last night, but there was a sense that Blake could break open the game at any time, which is exactly what happened in the third when they exploded for four goals. Blake is not very deep but their first two lines are good enough to play with nearly anyone. In particular, the two freshman forwards (Miller and Broz) are super talented. They are both still tiny physically, but lightning fast and excellent playmakers and finishers. As with most young teams, Blake is prone to defensive lapses, but their goalie (also a freshman) is very solid.

I certainly scoffed initially upon hearing the news of Blake opting up to AA since they hadn’t even been a contender in Section 2A for several years. Clearly they have completely remade their program, though, and could develop into a 6AA contender sooner than expected. The schedule is a bit week this year given the high number of single A opponents, so Blake will need to take advantage of the few opportunities on their schedule for quality wins.

Blake has a couple of decent players. They are 2-2 against AA opponents.
They beat Holy Angels, a below average team. Beat Wayzata who has been up and down. Lost to Bemidji, an average team and lost to a good Cretin team.

Against single A they beat a good Orono team by a goal and pulled away from an average (if that) Breck team.

Not world beaters but potential (from where I sit not a top 20 team, maybe 25).

[ryguyMN]

Not to be too knee-jerk about last night's 6-1 loss to Lakeville South (they did outshoot them by a decent margin), but is it time we start ranking Eden Prairie where their results put them, instead of their name? Not just Karl's rankings, most people have them in the top 10. I know they brought St. Thomas into OT, but their best win of the season so far is Brainerd or STMA. Their losses (other than Lakeville South) are all to solid teams, but I have to wonder if a less traditional team like Buffalo or St. Cloud had their exact results, would they be in the top 10?

It's a long season, and their Lake Conference schedule should sort this out, but right now at least they seem to be in the mid-late teens range. Put it this way, if I'm Holy Family, I'm feeling pretty optimistic about the 2 seed in section 2AA.

The showing against St. Thomas got EP into the top ten. Who else do you put at #10? Do you run a lottery or pick a name out of a hat with the five or six other teams all grouped with EP (Wayzata, Duluth Marshall, Cloquet, Elk River, etc.)? I'm being half serious as there is so much parity right now with this part of the rankings.

Good point. I'm now stumped. You could jumble around the 9-15 teams on Karl's rankings and make an argument either way. I guess the point I'm making is that EP has benefited from a relatively high pre-season ranking given all of their unknowns.

To your point, I agree it appears EP was overvalued in the pre-season, the name may had something to do with it. There is still a half a season to play, so the final results will be a better indicator for performance purposes. My expectations weren't real high as Jensen has proven to be the only catalyst offensively as I suspected. EP seems comparable to Wayzata right now and that you don't what you are going to get with each game - very inconsistent.

Other teams, as of right now, ranked too high early on include Moorhead and Hill-Murray. Hill was a pre-season top ten that slid outside the top twenty. This scenario plays every year and why I don't get too excited about pre-season rankings. It's just a talker.

[Stang5280]

Blake has a couple of decent players. They are 2-2 against AA opponents.
They beat Holy Angels, a below average team. Beat Wayzata who has been up and down. Lost to Bemidji, an average team and lost to a good Cretin team.

Against single A they beat a good Orono team by a goal and pulled away from an average (if that) Breck team.

Not world beaters but potential (from where I sit not a top 20 team, maybe 25).

That’s a pretty good TL;DR version of what I was trying to say. The only quibbles I have are categorizing players like Miller as merely “decent” (he’s already a Gopher commit) and focusing on early season results like the Bemidji game. That said, it will be hard to rank Blake this year given the constraints of their weak conference schedule and the number of single-A games they have.

[elliott70]

Blake has a couple of decent players. They are 2-2 against AA opponents.
They beat Holy Angels, a below average team. Beat Wayzata who has been up and down. Lost to Bemidji, an average team and lost to a good Cretin team.

Against single A they beat a good Orono team by a goal and pulled away from an average (if that) Breck team.

Not world beaters but potential (from where I sit not a top 20 team, maybe 25).

That’s a pretty good TL;DR version of what I was trying to say. The only quibbles I have are categorizing players like Miller as merely “decent” (he’s already a Gopher commit) and focusing on early season results like the Bemidji game. That said, it will be hard to rank Blake this year given the constraints of their weak conference schedule and the number of single-A games they have.

Decent is a pretty good comment from me. And he may have committed but he still is pretty young, probably 5 years out from playing college.

[Stang5280]

Decent is a pretty good comment from me. And he may have committed but he still is pretty young, probably 5 years out from playing college.

Fair enough, and a good point about pumping the brakes on early commits. I’m probably reaching to explain away a brutal loss for my alma mater.

[elliott70]

Decent is a pretty good comment from me. And he may have committed but he still is pretty young, probably 5 years out from playing college.

Fair enough, and a good point about pumping the brakes on early commits. I’m probably reaching to explain away a brutal loss for my alma mater.

We all do it.

[karl(east)]

Good talk on EP. Despite the record, they do have 4 wins against teams that would make a two-class top 25, which is more than a lot of teams hovering in the 10-15 part of the rankings can say. Nor were any of their losses poor, though the margins against Cretin and Edina aren't exactly points in their favor. The Hill tie is acceptable, too. The South loss was the first real ugly result, and assuming there's no mass carnage in that part of the rankings, will drive them down in next week's.

Blake's recent success is certainly building a case for top 25; anything higher will require them to take care of business against a pretty favorable schedule in the coming weeks, and maybe do something against one of the three higher-ranked teams left on the schedule (Marshall, EP, Tonka). Outside of that, their only semi-difficult AA opponent is St. Louis Park...it's not hard to imagine 17-19 wins here.

[O-townClown]

1. Minnetonka (10-0-2)
2. St. Thomas (8-1-1)
3. Edina (10-1)
4. White Bear Lake (8-0-2)
5. Duluth East (6-0-3)
6. Holy Family (10-2-1)
7. Cretin-Derham Hall (8-2-1)
8. Centennial (6-2-2)
9. Moorhead (9-4)
10. Eden Prairie (5-4-1)
11. Duluth Marshall (8-3-1)
12. Elk River (8-4)
13. Brainerd (7-3)
14. Wayzata (5-5-1)
15. Cloquet (9-4-1)

Maple Grove (4-3-2)
Hill-Murray (4-4-4)
Blaine (3-3-3)
St. Michael-Albertville (7-3)
Eastview (9-3)
Stillwater (6-2)
Chaska (7-4)
Lakeville North (4-6-1)
Eagan (8-3)
St. Cloud (7-2)

1. Duluth East - only undefeated team remaining, nice win over Tonka
2. St. Thomas Academy - won Schwan Cup
3. Minnetonka
4. Edina - weird to place them this low
5. Holy Family
6. White Bear Lake - I'll ignore the Century loss yielding just 8 shots
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Cretin-Derham Hall

After that it gets awfully strange.

[goldy313]

White Bear was in a trap game following a loss to Edina, still they lost to a team Irondale beat handily. You can choose to ignore that at your own peril. Top 10 teams don't lose to teams in the bottom 60 and not face repercussions. 3 goals on 8 shots shows goaltender and or defensive issues...FWIW Century's goalie is very good, without him they lose to Hopkins and AHA.

That section (4AA) is a crap shoot.

Karl may have a seizure seeing a 1AA team not named Lakeville North actually beat someone. First South bests Eden Prairie 6-1, then this? I would expect him to have WBL in the 100's on Sunday with Fairmont and Worthington as those are the only non Big Nine teams thst would lose to a Big Nine team.