Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

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elliott70
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Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

1 Hermantown 7A 18-3-1
2 Mahtomedi 4A 16-5-1
3 Totino 4A 16-6-0
4 Alexandria 6A 17-5-0
5 St Cloud Cathedral 6A 19-3-0

6 Warroad 8A 12-9-2
7 Thief River Falls 8A 14-6-3
8 East Grand Forks 8A 16-8-0
9 Orono 2A 14-8-0
10 Greenway 7A 10-13-0

11 Sartell 6A 15-7-0
12 Virginia 7A 9-13-0
13 Delano 2 A 12-9-1
14 Monticello 5A 15-7-1
15 Northfield 4A 14-7-0

16 Marshall 3A 19-2-1
17 Mound 2A 14-9-1
18 Mankato East 1A 15-6-1
19 Litchfield 3A 11-93
20 Minnesota River 1A 16-4-0

Others (in no particular order):
Lourdes 1A
Duluth Denfeld 7A
North Branch 5A
Breck 2A
New Ulm 3A
Albert Lea 1A
Princeton 5A
Lourdes 1A
Pine City 5A
Mankato West 1A
Stang5280
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by Stang5280 »

Mother Nature once again wreaked havoc on the schedule, causing the postponement or cancellation of nearly every game Thursday. Despite the abbreviated schedule, we still ended up with an interesting slate of Class A contests, with a number of upsets Saturday. The names remain the same, but there was quite a bit of shuffling in the rankings. I assumed the rankings would become more clear by this stage of the season, but the opposite has been the case lately.

1. Hermantown (18-3-1) (LW 1)
W 6-0 @ Superior, W 6-2 @ Eveleth, W 5-2 @ Bemidji
Amidst all the chaos, the Hawks tightened their talons around the top perch. After last week's close call against Mahtomedi, Hermantown methodically dispatched three solid opponents on the road. After shutting out Wisconsin's #4 team, the Hawks scored four unanswered to close out Eveleth, and then came out flying with four straight early goals against Bemidji. They have three games remaining: Virginia, at Cloquet, and Grand Rapids.

2. Totino-Grace (16-6-0) (LW 3)
L 0-4 @ Andover
Due to the cancellation (postponement?) of the Blaine game, the Eagles only played once this week, against the #4 AA team. TG was unable to generate any offense, but still managed to hang around despite being heavily outshot, so not a bad showing. The last portion of the schedule is a home contest with Centennial and a visit to Breck.

3. Mahtomedi (16-5-1) (LW 4)
L 1-7 @ STA, W 6-2 vs Cathedral
What a roller coaster ride for the Zephyrs, who were run out of the building by STA Tuesday night, looking nothing like the team that pushed Hermantown to the brink last week. Mahtomedi then flipped the script against SCC, with a surprisingly one-sided victory. The schedule for the final week is a bit lighter, with Stillwater, Breck, and Roseville on the horizon.

4. St. Cloud Cathedral (19-3-0) (LW 2)
L 2-6 @ Mahtomedi
In what turned out to be their only outing of the week, the Crusaders were blasted by Mahtomedi. How does one rank Cathedral after that performance? While SCC has a more impressive collection of wins, the losses are similar (ranked AA teams and Hermantown), and the Zephyrs have a decisive H2H win. So they tumble down below TG and Mahtomedi, with the caveat that all three teams are tightly bunched. Next week will be a hectic one, with Breck, Holy Family, and Monticello all on the docket.

5. Alexandria (17-5-0) (LW 6)
L 2-5 vs Brainerd, 2-0 vs EGF
The Cardinals couldn't quite keep up with Brainerd in a penalty filled affair, losing Doherty to a DQ in the process. That didn't haunt them, however, as Alexandria turned around and shut out EGF thanks to outstanding goaltending from Rosch. The showdown with Sartell was either postponed or possibly cancelled altogether, so Alex's only other action is a Tuesday trip to St. Cloud.

6. East Grand Forks (16-8-0) (LW 5)
L 3-6 @ Warroad, L 2-4 vs Roseau, L 0-2 @ Alexandria
Just a horrendous stretch for the Green Wave, dropping all three games this week and four of their last five. EGF's scoring punch seems to have disappeared over the past few weeks. They still slot in ahead of TRF due to their Jan. 22 win over the Prowlers, but the margin is very thin. Conveniently, the Wave happen to host Thief River Falls Tuesday night in their season finale, which will determine the top seed in 8A.

7. Thief River Falls (14-6-3) (LW 7)
L 1-2 vs Roseau, W 7-0 @ Red Lake Falls
As usual, the Prowlers were able to keep things close against a superior opponent, but they couldn't quite manage the equalizer against Roseau. TRF had no such trouble with Red Lake Falls, scorching the back of the Eagles' net. As noted above, the Prowlers have a chance to snatch the top seed from EGF, and then travel to Bemidji to close out the regular season.

8. Orono (14-8-0) [LW 8]
W 7-0 vs Hutchinson, W 4-0 @ Mound Westonka
The Spartans pitched a shutout for the week, romping over Hutchinson and exacting revenge for their earlier loss to Mound Westonka. That victory seals up the top seed in 2A for Orono, though that isn't particularly advantageous since all of the games are played at a neutral site and their likely semifinal opponents are basically interchangeable.

9. Warroad (12-9-2) (LW 9)
W 6-3 vs EGF
With the Bemidji game being cancelled, the Warriors only played once this week, but made an emphatic statement in the process by putting away EGF with three goals in the third. If it wasn't already, 8A is a three horse race now. Warroad just has a single game remaining at Lake of the Woods.

10. Greenway (10-13-0) (LW 11)
W 5-0 @ Hibbing, W 6-1 vs SP Johnson
The Raiders breezed past two weaker opponents this week, and continued to improve their sectional standing along the way. Speaking of which, Greenway concludes with two more 7A opponents, International Falls and Eveleth. Holding serve should earn them at least the three seed, and possibly the two depending on what Denfeld does.

11. Monticello (15-7-1) (LW 10)
L 2-7 @ Champlin Park, W 5-2 vs Chisago Lakes
Champlin Park trampled the Moose (bad pun alert!), but they rebounded nicely and took care of business versus Chisago to wrap up the top seed in what could be a volatile section. Monticello next faces Princeton in a rescheduled contest, then has a difficult final game at Cathedral.

12. Mankato East (15-6-1) (LW 14)
W 6-1 vs Mankato West, W 8-2 vs Austin, W 6-4 @ South St. Paul
The Cougars racked up three more victories, with two being routs. While none were against particularly impressive competition, they have now won nine in a row and have not lost since the calendar turned to 2019. The remaining schedule is a bit more challenging, with East facing Owatonna, Century, and St. Cloud. They can secure the Big 9 title with wins over the former two.

13. Sartell-St. Stephen (15-7-0) (LW 12)
W 6-2 @ Willmar, L 3-5 @ Mankato West
The ship continues to sink in Sartell as the Sabres suffered a bad loss down in Mankato, which included the teams combining for six goals and 28 penalty minutes in the third period. Their season concludes with a dicey 6A contest with Little Falls, followed by Fergus Falls, and possibly Alexandria.

14. Marshall (19-2–1) (LW 15)
W 4-1 vs Luverne
The Tigers dispatched Luverne fairly easily in their only action, likely wrapping up the Big South title as a result. The final week is a busy but manageable one, starting off with a rescheduled game with Willmar, then closing out with Morris/Benson and Waseca.

15. Duluth Denfeld (11-8-3) (LW 13)
W 5-3 vs Eveleth, W 5-1 @ North Shore, vs L 0-8 Holy Family
Denfeld was one of the few teams not impacted by a postponement or cancellation this week. The wins over Eveleth and North Shore put the Hunters in the driver's seat for the two seed, though they will likely meet Greenway in the semis regardless. Holy Family then smacked around Denfeld pretty good, which is why they drop a bit. Another busy week Is coming up, starting with a Monday game against Hibbing, a rematch with Eveleth, and finally a cross-town showdown with Duluth Marshall.

Next Five Up (what the heck, let’s rank ‘em):

16. Delano (12-9-1) (LW 18)
W 5-3 @ LDC, W 2-0 vs Minneapolis

17. Minnesota River (16-4-0) (LW 17)
Idle

18. Breck (12-10-1) (LW 20)
W 4-2 vs Minneapolis, W 8-4 vs Minnehaha

19. Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato (11-9-3) (LW 19)
L 3-5 vs Delano

20. Albert Lea (13-8-1) (LW 16)
L 2-4 vs Austin, W 3-1 vs Mankato West, T 0-0 @ Hastings

Out: None

A few notes:
- While it felt like Warroad deserved to jump up in the rankings after their big win over EGF, the two teams ahead of them played well enough to maintain their spots, and TRF swept the season series with them.
- There are two clusters of teams that are difficult to separate: Totino-Grace through Cathedral, and EGF through Warroad.
- Everything after about #13 in the rankings basically amounts to a crapshoot, or rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Similar to last season, there isn't great depth in Class A.
- The ranked Class A teams fared poorly against AA opposition this week, which has also been a seasonal trend.
- Honorable mentions go to Northfield, North Branch, Virginia, Little Falls, and Pine City (in no particular order).
- After a slow start, Pine City is now undefeated in its last nine games, going 8-0-1, with wins over Denfeld and Princeton in the last two.
- Minnesota River is the winner of the weather disruption contest, with all three of their games being postponed or cancelled this week.
zooomx
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by zooomx »

Solid rankings once again. Not sure I would sneak Alex above SC Cathedral but I believe the two teams are pretty close at this point. The top 5 look really good with some degree of separation between 5 and 6. Another hard break between 11 and 12. Nice job Elliott!
greenwayraider
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by greenwayraider »

Section five has developed into one of the most interesting sections. This section is no longer the weakest one. The semifinal with Monticello, Princeton, Pine City and North Branch will be as entertaining as any.
Stang5280
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by Stang5280 »

greenwayraider wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:01 pm Section five has developed into one of the most interesting sections. This section is no longer the weakest one. The semifinal with Monticello, Princeton, Pine City and North Branch will be as entertaining as any.
Agreed... particularly if Monticello makes it out of the section, they will not be a pushover in the state quarterfinals. North Branch is also very young with a super sophomore class, so they should be a force to be reckoned with for the next few years.
elliott70
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

Section choices
1A
Difficult but I will put it all on Mankato East.
Dark horse Minnesota River.
elliott70
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

2A
Orono
Dark horse
Delano
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

3A
Marshall
or
LItchfield
Dark horse
Luverne
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

4A
Mahtomedi
Dark horse
Totino
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

5A
Monticello
Dark horses
North Branch and Pine City
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

6A
Alexandria or St Cloud Cathedral
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

7A
Hermantown
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

8A
East Grand or Thief River or Warroad
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

State seed
1 Hermantown
2-3 Alex or St. Cloud Or Maht or Totino
4 section 8
5 Orono
Stang5280
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by Stang5280 »

elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:13 pm 4A
Mahtomedi
Dark horse
Totino
You’re not exactly going out on a limb with your dark horse pick there, my friend :wink: 4A is probably more an “or” situation since it is hard to see anyone other than the top two seeds winning.

Also, I’m hurt that you didn’t pick Breck as your dark horse for 2A. They did make a run to the section final last year and pushed Orono to OT, even after their terrible regular season. But Delano is probably the right call, since they seem to have a higher upside when they are playing well.
Stang5280
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by Stang5280 »

PageStat Top 25 Class A Teams
Thru games of 2/10/19
Overall ranking in parentheses

1 (9) HERMANTOWN 7A
2 (24) ST CLOUD CATHEDRAL 6A
3 (28) MAHTOMEDI 4A
4 (31) TOTINO-GRACE 4A
5 (36) EAST GRAND FORKS 8A
6 (38) ALEXANDRIA 6A
7 (41) ORONO 2A
8 (47) GREENWAY 7A
9 (49) WARROAD 8A
10 (53) SARTELL 6A
11 (56) THIEF RIVER FALLS 8A
12 (57) MONTICELLO 5A
13 (62) DELANO 2A
14 (65) BRECK 2A
15 (68) DULUTH DENFELD 7A
16 (70) MANKATO EAST 1A
17 (71) VIRGINIA 7A
18 (74) MARSHALL 3A
19 (75) NORTHFIELD 4A
20 (76) ALBERT LEA 1A
21 (78) MINNESOTA RIVER 1A
22 (80) LITTLE FALLS 6A
23 (81) NORTH BRANCH 5A
24 (82) ST PAUL ACADEMY
25 (84) MOUND WESTONKA 2A
MrBoDangles
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by MrBoDangles »

elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:13 pm 4A
Mahtomedi
Dark horse
Totino
Totino beat Mahtomedi 5-1 this year... so White Horse?
elliott70
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by elliott70 »

MrBoDangles wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:50 pm
elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:13 pm 4A
Mahtomedi
Dark horse
Totino
Totino beat Mahtomedi 5-1 this year... so White Horse?
Totino has a shot but I feel the favorite right today is Mahtomedi by 2 goals.
MrBoDangles
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Re: Class A Top Twenty 2/10/19

Post by MrBoDangles »

Stang5280 wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:54 pm
greenwayraider wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:01 pm Section five has developed into one of the most interesting sections. This section is no longer the weakest one. The semifinal with Monticello, Princeton, Pine City and North Branch will be as entertaining as any.
Agreed... particularly if Monticello makes it out of the section, they will not be a pushover in the state quarterfinals. North Branch is also very young with a super sophomore class, so they should be a force to be reckoned with for the next few years.

North Branch outshot Monticello by a wide margin in the final last year... Great goalie performance. NB should easily be top 10 next year with all they bring back..
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