PageStat 2018-19

[east hockey]

As of now, there are six disagreements between PageStat and the various section seedings:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne

There could (and probably will) be more as the rounds progress.

Lee

Might be a dumb question, but this is a list of disparities between how PageStat would seed vs. how the sections actually ended up being seeded? So PageStat would have seeded HF 4th and PL 5th but actual seeding was reversed?

It's just a list of games where lower seeded teams were ranked higher in PageStat. If you follow me on Twitter, I tweeted the complete list, by section of seedings vs PageStat seedings.

Lee

[east hockey]

Two more games added to the list:

Section 2AA quarterfinals: (5) Holy Family over (4) Prior Lake
Section 3AA first round: (9) East Ridge over (8) Apple Valley
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6AA first round: (9) St Louis Park over (8) Hopkins
Section 7AA quarterfinals: (5) Elk River over (4) Forest Lake
Section 3A quarterfinals: (5) Hutchinson over (4) Luverne
Section 6A semifinals: (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell
Section 4A quarterfinals: (5) St Paul Academy over (4) St Paul Johnson

No disagreements tonight. PageStat stands at +1 over the seedings

Lee

[east hockey]

There were two disagreements tonight, and PageStat got 'em both. Holy Family beat Prior Lake and Hutchinson beat Luverne.

Eight more to be determined, possibly more depending on other games to be played:

Section 1AA semifinals: (4) Lakeville South over (1) Hastings
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6A semifinals: (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell
Section 4A quarterfinals: (5) St Paul Academy over (4) St Paul Johnson
Section 6AA semifinals: (3) Wayzata over (2) Benilde-St Margarets
Section 8AA semifinals: (3) Brainerd over (2) Roseau
Section 7A semifinals: (3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld
Section 8A semifinals: (3) Warroad over (2) Thief River Falls

PageStat sits +3

Lee

[east hockey]

St Paul Academy beat St Paul Johnson 2-0 tonight to put PageStat up +4 on the seedings.

Seven disagreements upcoming:

Section 1AA semifinals: (4) Lakeville South over (1) Hastings
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6A semifinals: (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell
Section 6AA semifinals: (3) Wayzata over (2) Benilde-St Margarets
Section 8AA semifinals: (3) Brainerd over (2) Roseau
Section 7A semifinals: (3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld
Section 8A semifinals: (3) Warroad over (2) Thief River Falls

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's clearing her throat.

Lee

[Stang5280]

Section 1AA semifinals: (4) Lakeville South over (1) Hastings

That seems to be the most interesting conflict as the only one of the group that isn’t a “coin flip” game between teams separately by only one seed.

Without forcing you to do too much research, can you recall the greatest disparity in seed lines where PS has predicted (correctly?) the lower seed to win. I skimmed the archives way back to 2014 to find a similar prediction, with (4) Eagan defeating (1) CDH in the 3AA semis (before knocking off (3) STA to advance to state).

[east hockey]

Section 1AA semifinals: (4) Lakeville South over (1) Hastings

That seems to be the most interesting conflict as the only one of the group that isn’t a “coin flip” game between teams separately by only one seed.

Without forcing you to do too much research, can you recall the greatest disparity in seed lines where PS has predicted (correctly?) the lower seed to win. I skimmed the archives way back to 2014 to find a similar prediction, with (4) Eagan defeating (1) CDH in the 3AA semis (before knocking off (3) STA to advance to state).

I found three:

2003: (5) Lakeville over (1) Rochester J.M. Lakeville won 4-0

By the way, Lakeville was the PageStat underdog in all three of their section games. They won them all.

2001: (5S) Duluth Denfeld over (1N) International Falls. Denfeld won 3-2.

7A was split into north and south sub-sections back in those days.

1999: (6) Rochester John Marshall over (2) Albert Lea. JM won 2-1.

There has never been an upset pick of more than four places.

Lee

[east hockey]

[edited to add a possible H-M vs WBL match up in 4AA)

PageStat goes up +5 with Brainerd beating Roseau.

Still unresolved:

Section 1AA finals: (4) Lake South over (2) Lake North
Section 4AA quarterfinals: (5) Woodbury over (4) Irondale
Section 6A semifinals: (3) Alexandria over (2) Sartell
Section 7A semifinals: (3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld
Section 8A semifinals: (3) Warroad over (2) Thief River Falls

In addition, there could be three more:

1. If Mankato East wins their semi in 1A, they'll be a PageStat underdog in the section final.
2. If (1) Totino-Grace and (2) Mahtomedi win their semis, PageStat favors Mahtomedi
3. If Hill-Murray and White Bear Lake win their semis, PageStat favors Hill-Murray

Lee

[goldy313]

You have #4 South (26) ranked higher than #2 North (32).

[east hockey]

You have #4 South (26) ranked higher than #2 North (32).

Caught it, edited it.

[east hockey]

PageStat is +7. It's over.

Remaining disagreements:

1AA finals: (4) Lakeville South over (2) Lakeville North
7A semis: (3) Greenway over (2) Denfeld (Greenway is up 5-1)
8A semis: (3) Warroad over (2) Thief River Falls (TRF up 1-0?)

Possible:

4AA: If (2) Hill-Murray and (1) White Bear Lake win their semis, PageStat has HM
1A: If (1) Mankato East wins their semi, PageStat has either Albert Lea or Minn. River
4A: If (2) Mahtomedi and (1) Totino Grace win their semis, PageStat has Mahtomedi

Lee

[goldy313]

That Irondale/Woodbury game turned south for the coaches fast

[east hockey]

That Irondale/Woodbury game turned south for the coaches fast

All I saw was the 9-3 final.

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat is +9. With Warroad and Greenway winning, it's running up the score

Remaining disagreement:

1AA finals: (4) Lakeville South over (2) Lakeville North

Possible:

4AA: If (2) Hill-Murray and (1) White Bear Lake win their semis, PageStat has HM
4A: If (2) Mahtomedi and (1) Totino Grace win their semis, PageStat has Mahtomedi

Lee

[edited to remove the Mankato East in 1A final possibility]

[goldy313]

I was at the 1AA games today and was talking with a Lakeville South parent. Seeding is different in every section and who you seed where and why changes. In 1AA, unless you are John Marshall, the semi finals and finals are played at a neutral site, so seeding is generally based on a pretty set criteria; head to head, overall record, and common opponents. Hastings was the unanimous #1 seed, I don’t think anyone thought they were the best team but they had earned the top seed due to their regular season. Hockey doesn’t have what football does in district schedules so things in hockey become much more complex.

Pagestat and QRF have a place but until you have a system where section teams play each other at least 1AA has a good system, like NCAA football where the regular season matters. Maybe the “best” computer team doesn’t get the top seed. Rather the best team based on the regular season gets the top seed. Of course in 1AA it only matters as far as last line change, not home rink. That matters too.

South had a good argument for the #2or #3 seed over North and Century but not #1. Though most would agree South was better than Hastings prior to today’s game.

[karl(east)]

Congrats to QRF on its dominant postseason!

I would think that the sensible answer to the 1AA seeding conundrum would be for the Lakevilles to get Hastings and a Rochester or two on their schedules. Like goldy said, I think most of us suspected the Lakevilles were the somewhat better teams here, but when they don't play each other and Hastings does reasonably well against some common opponents, the Raiders get themselves a pretty good case.

[goldy313]

Hastings has never been in 1AA or even section 1 in my memory gong back to the mid 1970’s at least until last year. Scheduling the Raiders posed no issue until
Last year. I believe this is more an MSHSL issue than any section 1 issue.

Hopefully come the new section assignments the MSHSL realizes 1AA is schools South of the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers. Give us Lakeville, New Prague, Hastings
, and the rest. 7AA and 8AA also deserve their own area. Being a “State” tournament demands as much.

[east hockey]

PageStat is +9.

Remaining disagreements:

1AA finals: (4) Lakeville South over (2) Lakeville North
4A: (2) Mahtomedi over (1) Totino-Grace
4AA: (2) Hill-Murray over (1) White Bear Lake

I have the least confidence in the Hill-Murray pick.

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat is +10.

PageStat disagrees with the seedings in tonight's last section finals:

4A: (2) Mahtomedi over (1) Totino-Grace
4AA: (2) Hill-Murray over (1) White Bear Lake

Lee

[elliott70]

Lee
Do you re-work things for the state tourney?

[goldy313]

What is the best PageStat has been versus the coaches?

[east hockey]

What is the best PageStat has been versus the coaches?

+7 in 2003

Lee

[east hockey]

Lee
Do you re-work things for the state tourney?

There will be a reposting of the ratings after tonight.

I have never kept track of how PageStat does predicting the State Tournament, but that's easily done.

Lee

[east hockey]

Splitting the final two picks, PageStat ends up +10 over the seedings. There were 16 disagreements, with PageStat going 13-3 in those games.

The 16 disagreements were the most since 2010 (17) and the third most since I started doing this in 1999. The +10 margin was the best yet, passing the +7 it managed in 2003.

PageStat has won 13 seasons, the seedings have won seven. One year was a tie. PageStat is a cumulative +45 since 1999. Its average win margin increased in the 2010-19 decade (+2.8 average) over 2000-01 (+1.3). This surprises me considering the average disagreements per year has decreased from 13.3 in the previous decade to 10.7 in this decade.

It's a fun project and I'll be studying it in the off season to see if anything can be done to make it better (adjust the margin cap, adjust the momentum ratio)

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat seeds the State Tournament teams

Class AA

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. Eden Prairie
4. St. Thomas Academy
5. Duluth East
6. Moorhead
7. White Bear Lake
8. Lakeville South

Class A

1. St. Cloud Cathedral
2. Mahtomedi
3. East Grand Forks
4. Greenway
5. Delano
6. Minnesota River
7. North Branch
8, New Ulm

[goldy313]

PageStat does a great job.
Coaches are kind of screwed, there was no way you could legitimately vote Hastings not #1, yet logic would make them them the #3 or#4 seed. In this way district scheduling like football does is an advantage.

Congrats to PageStat, it has shown a superior predictor to the coaches, but it raises the age old question of how we value the regular season.