6AAGuy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:41 am
SECoach wrote: ↑Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:15 am
Not all virus act the same. Influenza is rarely asymptomatic, whereas it is very common in Covid19. People with flu/Covid symptoms are staying home for the most part, or at least masking and distancing. This has greatly lowered the incidence of influenza spread. Covid on the other hand is very often asymptomatic. Asymptomatic, non-mask, non social distancing carriers (such as at a large rally or Christmas party), are the folks who are greatly contributing to the rampant spread of this virus, and in my opinion, can also take the most credit for things being closed down right now. This is why flu numbers are down, and Covid numbers are up.
A Johns Hopkins study of the flu disagrees with you: "As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic, which may in part be due to pre-existing partial immunity. Asymptomatic patients shed virus and can transmit the disease, but not at the same rate as symptomatic individuals."
Again, I'd posit that people are socially distancing and wearing masks which is why flu numbers are down. Those big parties and events you're talking about (where are they, by the way??) would also pass flu among them (implications from the Hopkins findings) as well as COVID.
Not seeing much of those parties in MN. How many large Christmas parties is anyone invited to (or going to) this year?
You would have to provide some specific numbers, from the same source, on both Covid and Influenza asymptomatic % for me accept that "A Johns Hopkins study disagrees".
In any event I've had the opportunity to stand on a bench over 40 times through the fall and into winter and view 16-20 players, from 16-20 different families, non-masked, face to face within inches, speaking to each other. You can literally see the droplets hitting the other player. Of course none of them were showing symptoms, but yet there were positive tests among them before they realized it and spread it. I don't personally believe the actual play on the ice is as much a problem as lack of distancing on the bench.
Back on the Friday night prior to the pause at midnight, I had the opportunity to drive past several bars and restaurants on the way to a rink. The parking lots were all overflowing with what I assume were lots and lots of folks getting in that last in person, non-masked, beverage or meal before the pause. Far from scientific I know, but that alone tells me that many, likely asymptomatic people, made their way into large crowds for that last fix. This also gives me the opinion that there are lots and lots of folks not taking the possibility of getting, and then unknowingly spreading the virus and their social activities are more important. I've also spent a fair amount of time in greater Minnesota and surrounding states rural areas. My personal observation is that in those areas, masks are often being worn ONLY when required. Again, people who feel sick, even with what may be the common cold, are staying home and distanced. Many, many, people who feel fine are not.
I work with several folks that even though they are around others, go without masks, as long as they are among like thinkers. Sure, when I'm around they wear masks. As soon as I leave, the masks come off. My opinion is that this is common. Although I'm not in attendance, I suspect there are many gatherings in Minnesota that replicate gatherings in DC and other places that are largely unmasked and not distanced. They just aren't on the news like some events are. These are simply my observations and options but studies, interpreted by the layman, have about as much value in trying to prove experts wrong.
