A Rankings for 3/7/21

[ClassAGuy]

Well in a normal year this would be the morning after the Tourney...

Instead its the last week of the regular season and we will find out who the best of Class A is! Gentry vs Hermantown is gonna be great!

8AA with Warraod taking control is the clear thirs best team followed by Mahtomedi and EGF..

After the Top five yuck its either a really down year or a ton of parity from a positive look.

Top 3 seeds at Tourney are locked with 7A, 4A, and 8A.... After that anything can happen and the 4 and 5 seeds are gonna be huge as un seeded this year will get routed by top 3 teams.

Top 5-
1. Hermantown
2. Gentry
3. Warroad
4. EGF
5. Mahtomedi

The Rest
6. Fergus Falls
7. Little Falls
8. Duluth Denfeld
9. Delano
10. Dodge County
11. Mankato East
12. Breck
13. SW Chrtistian
14. Hutchinson
15. Orono
16. Northern Lakes
17. Chisago Lakes
18. Alexandria
19. Litchfield Dassel Cokato
20. Sartell

Stab in the Dark
1A Fav- Dodge COunty
2A Fav- ???? Delano
3A Fav- Hutchinson
4A Fav- Gentry
5A Fav ????? Chisago Lakes or Monticello
6A Fav- ????? Fergus Falls
7A Fav- Hermantown
8A Fav- Warroad

[elliott70]

1. Warroad
2. Hermantown
3. Gentry
4. EGF
5. Mahtomedi
6. Fergus Falls
7. Delano
8. Duluth Denfeld
9. Little Falls
10. Mankato East
11. Breck
12. Northern Lakes
13. Sartell
14. Dodge County
15. SW Christian
16. Chisago Lakes
17. Orono
18. Monticello
19. Hutchinson
20. Alexandria

[elliott70]

State qualifiers and Seeding - projection

1 Hermantown vs Hutchinson
4 Fergus Falls vs 5 Delano

2 Gentry vs Monticello
3 Warroad vs Mankato East

1 & 2 decided by upcoming game.

Of course, Mahtomedi cannot be counted out of an upset over Gentry.
East Grand could beat Warroad.
Fergus could fall to Little Falls.
Monticello - lots of different scenarios.
Mankato East could easily be Dodge County.
Hutchinsom might be Litch or New Ulm.

I am locking in Htown and Delano.

[bardown27]

State qualifiers and Seeding - projection

1 Hermantown vs Hutchinson
4 Fergus Falls vs 5 Delano

2 Gentry vs Monticello
3 Warroad vs Mankato East

1 & 2 decided by upcoming game.

Of course, Mahtomedi cannot be counted out of an upset over Gentry.
East Grand could beat Warroad.
Fergus could fall to Little Falls.
Monticello - lots of different scenarios.
Mankato East could easily be Dodge County.
Hutchinsom might be Litch or New Ulm.

I am locking in Htown and Delano.

Elliott, curious why you would seed Delano in front of Hutch? Hutch is 1-0-1 against Delano this year, and save for 5 non-conference games, Hutch is 7-3-2 in the WCC and Delano is 7-4-1

[elliott70]

State qualifiers and Seeding - projection

1 Hermantown vs Hutchinson
4 Fergus Falls vs 5 Delano

2 Gentry vs Monticello
3 Warroad vs Mankato East

1 & 2 decided by upcoming game.

Of course, Mahtomedi cannot be counted out of an upset over Gentry.
East Grand could beat Warroad.
Fergus could fall to Little Falls.
Monticello - lots of different scenarios.
Mankato East could easily be Dodge County.
Hutchinsom might be Litch or New Ulm.

I am locking in Htown and Delano.

Elliott, curious why you would seed Delano in front of Hutch? Hutch is 1-0-1 against Delano this year, and save for 5 non-conference games, Hutch is 7-3-2 in the WCC and Delano is 7-4-1

Coaches voting - taking a guess they give them the benefit of the doubt based on the past.
Predicting what might happen - not what I may necessarily do.

[Corn Cobb]

1 - Gentry Academy
2 - Hermantown
3 - Warroad
4 - Mahtomedi
5 - Fergus Falls
6 - Duluth Denfeld
7 - East Grand Forks
8 - Breck
9 - Delano
10 - Little Falls
11 - Mankato East
12 - Dodge County
13 - Minneapolis
14 - Hutchinson
15 - Alexandria
16 - Orono
17 - Tartan
18 - Sartell-St. Stephen
19 - Thief River Falls
20 - Mankato West

[Stang5280]

Sorry these are a bit later than usual, but I wasn't able to get much done ahead of time, and the chaotic results dictated some reworking. There were a few big matchups amongst ranked teams this week, and one monumental upset, but perhaps the biggest news came off the ice with the announcement of a blockbuster to cap off the regular season. Enjoy the rankings.

1. Hermantown (15-1-0) [LW 1]
W 6-0 @ Duluth Marshall, L 3-6 @ Grand Rapids
The Hawks had a poor week by their lofty standards. Hermantown struggled to put away a weak Marshall crew, then suffered their first loss of the season to a very strong Rapids team. While there's no shame in losing to a top AA program, there is some cause for concern, as the defense and goaltending were shaky without Pierce in the lineup. As a late addition to the schedule, the battle with second-ranked Gentry suddenly becomes the game of the week, and the most intriguing of the regular season.
Next: Mon vs Duluth East, Thu vs Cloquet, Fri vs Gentry

2. Gentry Academy (12-0-0) [LW 2]
Idle
The Stars saw their week wiped out due to Covid quarantine following their game with Minneapolis. I gave some consideration to bumping Gentry to the top spot, but they haven't faced any competition near the level of Grand Rapids. That all goes out the window this Friday, as they travel up to Hermantown in a possible preview of the state final. Gentry will have a busy dance card with four games in five days, but none of the other teams should pose a threatl.
Next: Tue @ SCC, Thu @ Minnehaha, Fri @ Hermantown, Sat @ SW Christian

3. Warroad (10-4-2) [LW 5]
W 4-2 @ EGF, W 5-0 @ TRF, W 6-1 @ SCC
The Warriors leapfrog the two teams ahead of them last week by avenging their earlier defeat at the hands of their 8A rival. Warroad jumped on the Green Wave early, and then hung on over the final two stanzas until sealing the deal with an empty net. Jack Orchard was outstanding, saving the Warriors' bacon with several key stops. They were on cruise control the rest of the week, adding two five-victories and getting the lower lines some action. The week ahead features an interesting matchup with the 6A contender Flyers.
Next: Mon @ Crookston, Sat vs Little Falls

3. East Grand Forks (7-8-0) [LW 3]
L 2-4 @ Moorhead, L 2-4 @ Warroad
The losses continue to pile up for the Green Wave, as they fall back below .500 after dropping a pair by identical scores, including an empty-netter in both. In both instances EGF dug a hole on the scoreboard (3-0 at Moorhead, and 3-1 at Warroad) from which they could not recover. This may be the most talented Class A team to ever have a losing record at this stage of the season. That said, the defense and goaltending have been shaky, and those weaknesses were on full display. The Wave should rebound and cruise to a few victories ahead of a final weekend rubber match with Roseau. The two teams have split the prior meetings, with each being a one-goal game.
Next: Mon vs TRF, Thu @ Kittson, Sat vs Roseau

5. Mahtomedi (7-6-1) [LW 4]
L 2-3 @ Hastings
Hastings is a fine enough squad, but should not defeat a purported Class A title contender. The Raiders pumped a combined 77 shots on net in the two tilts, and even a stellar netminder like Dardis can only hold up so long under that barrage. The Zephyrs are now 1-6-1 against AA opponents, and have not faced any single A team ranked ahead of them. Mahtomedi has a busy finish to the season, with three section games and some seeding implications on the line, given their paucity of 4A contests. They are also scheduled to face STA next Monday.
Next: Mon vs SSP, Wed vs Tartan, Sat @ Johnson

6. Fergus Falls (12-1-0) [LW 7]
W 6-0 @ Sauk Rapids
With the Saturday skirmish against Crookston cancelled, the Otters ended up hitting the ice only one. It was a routine victory, though required three third-period scores to finally put the game away. Isaac Young came up big with two goals, which makes that seven in the last four games. Fergus Falls kicks off the final week with a showdown with Little Falls, with the winner taking the top seed in 6A.
Next: Mon @ Little Falls, Thu vs Willmar, Sat @ Bemidji

7. Delano (9-6-1) [LW 9]
W 6-0 vs New Prague, T 2-2 @ Hutch, W 8-2 vs Orono
The Tigers sandwiched two six-goal romps around a tie with a stout Hutchinson squad. The Orono victory was particularly impressive, as Delano ripped off six straight goals in short succession after falling behind 1-0, and in fact scored on their first six shots. The Hutch tie isn't too concerning, with those other Tigers lurking just outside the top 10, and Delano had a large advantage in shots and zone time. The upcoming week is in flux due to the Carver County Covid advisory, with the Holy Family game already scrubbed, and Chaska potentially being in the same boat.
Next: Thu vs Chaska

8. Little Falls (9-3-1) [LW 6]
L 2-4 vs Northern Lakes, L 2-3 vs Dodge County, W 3-2 @ Denfeld
This was certainly not the way I anticipated the Flyers' week going, as they won the game expected to be the most difficult, and lost the other two, including perhaps the most seismic upset of season. Northern Lakes followed the blueprint of allowing Little Falls to fire away from outside and pounce on odd-man rushes, while Dodge County simply outplayed them in a choppy, chippy contest. Go figure, the Flyers rebounded the next day and potted a late goal to knock off the Hunters. For all of the Sturm und Drang, it matters little, as these were all intersectional games, and Little Falls' true fate lies before them. The big money contest is Monday night against the Otters, though there is another chance to improve 6A's standing in the season finale.
Next: Mon vs Fergus Falls, Thu vs River Lakes, Sat @ Warroad

9. Duluth Denfeld (7-3-1) [LW 8]
W 5-0 vs Virginia, W 7-0 @ Proctor, L 2-3 vs Little Falls
The Hunters racked up style points and goals in pummeling two 7A foes, but coughed up a late third-period tally to fall to Little Falls. Denfeld has proven that they are clearly the second best team in the section, but that was their only game of the season against a decent Class A competitor not named Hermantown. Denfeld has two final week tests versus 7AA opponents, and will be gunning for their first win over East in many years after battling the Hounds to a draw to open the season.
Next: Mon vs Cloquet, Thu vs Duluth East, Sat vs Greenway

10. Dodge County (11-3-1) [LW 18]
W 5-1 vs Lourdes, W 3-2 @ Little Falls, W 8-4 @ Tartan
After some fool suggested last week they were a fraud, the Wildcats unsheathed their claws and shot down that notion, jumping into the top 10. After breezing past Lourdes, they took down two ranked teams. Yes, there are some bad losses along the way, but the Little Falls win is a real coup given the lackluster schedule. Brody Lamb was his usual stellar self and put up some big numbers, but his line mate Donovan was the real hero, netting the game winner over the Flyers and scoring four more times against Tartan. Dodge County has semi-interesting contests with Chisago and Waseca, but should finish the final week without a blemish.
Next: Mon vs Chisago, Thu @ Century, Sat vs Waseca

11. Breck (10-5-0) [LW 11]
W 2-1 @ Johnson, W 5-1 vs Johnson, L 0-3 @ Holy Angels
The Mustangs swept the Johnson home-and-home, but couldn't do anything against Holy Angels, who has given IMAC teams fits. That's still enough to keep them treading water for now. The first Johnson win was a struggle, with Jack Thomson recording 41 saves, while the second was a thoroughly dominant performance. Breck can lock up the top seed in 2A, but faces a tall task Tuesday trying to tackle a tough Southwest Christian team.
Next: Tue @ SW Christian, Fri @ Orono, Sat @ Minnehaha

12. Mankato East (12-3-0) [LW 15]
W 6-4 vs Century, W 6-0 @ Mankato West
The Cougars needed two late goals to put away a down Century crew, despite posting a 59-20 shots advantage, but had no such struggles with West, dominating their rival from start to finish. Interestingly, there were six different goal scorers in each contest, which suggests some scoring depth that hasn't been on display much this season. East should plow through three overmatched opponents to enter the playoffs on a hot streak as the likely #2 in 1A.
Next: Tue @ Austin, Thu @ Mayo, Sat vs Albert Lea

13. Hutchinson (9-4-2) [LW 12]
W 5-2 vs Waconia, T 2-2 vs Delano, L 2-3 vs SW Christian
The Tigers added a tally to every column of their record this week. Hutch held on for a tie with their big cat brethren, but couldn't keep the momentum going versus a hot Southwest Christian crew. The week ahead features a meeting with a flagging Orono team and a potential preview of the 3A final.
Next: Mon vs Orono, Thu vs Chanhassen, Sat @ New Ulm

14. Southwest Christian/Richfield (10-4-0) [LW NR]
W 8-0 vs Lourdes, W 3-2 @ Hutchinson
These Stars have been shining brightly of late, and the win against Hutch vaults them well into the rankings. Two factors have helped play into their resurgence: health (five players were injured against Minneapolis) and Isaac Haugen emerging as the go-to goalie. Southwest Christian's newfound status will be immediately be tested with a big section scrum with Breck and a weekend date with powerful Gentry.
Next: Tue vs Breck, Thu vs SSP, Sat vs Gentry

15. Northern Lakes (14-2-0) [LW 20]
W 4-2 @ Little Falls, W 7-1 @ Breckenridge, L 5-6 (OT) @ Cambridge
Including in last week's rankings as essentially an afterthought, the Lightning proved they belong with a shocking upset of the Flyers. They play a physical game with some skill up front, and are anchored in net by Adler Hoagland, who stopped 52 of 54 shots. Unfortunately Northern Lakes dug themselves a huge hole Saturday, and couldn't finalize a furious late comeback bid. After playing only three section games to this point, the Lightning finish off with two important 5A contests.
Next: Wed @ St. Francis, Thu @ Monticello

16. Minneapolis (7-4-0) [LW 16]
Idle
An in memoriam ranking. It was a pretty good, if inconsistent season, and now put to rest by Covid. Hopefully you shall return for a postseason appearance, however fleeting.
Next: Season over

17. Alexandria (7-7-1) [LW 10]
W 4-1 @ Monticello, L 2-10 @ Rogers, L 1-4 vs Detroit Lakes
I moved the Cardinals up from 17 to 10 last week, and here they are back down at 17 following two dumbfounding defeats. Losing to a good AA team like Rogers is one thing, but Alex completely rolled over and played dead. The Detroit Lakes loss was even more concerning; the Cardinals were outshot and outplayed by a mid-pack 8A team, which makes one wonder about the presumed strength of 6A. Alexandria will attempt to rebound by seeking payback against two 8AA foes who dealt them previous setbacks.
Next: Mon @ Bemidji, Thu vs Brainerd

18. Thief River Falls (7-6-1) [LW NR]
W 7-0 @ Crookston, L 0-5 vs Warroad
The Prowlers enter the rankings for the first time this season. Don't be deceived by the mediocre record; TRF has actually been solid since a rough start to their campaign. All of their losses are to teams ranked in the A top 10 or AA top 15. While there aren't any signature wins, at least they dispatched Detroit Lakes, unlike the team directly above. Monday's rematch with EGF could very well be a preview of a section semifinal matchup.
Next: Mon @ EGF, Thu vs Red Lake, Sat vs SCC

19. Sartell-St. Stephen (7-7-0) [LW 17]
W 4-1 vs River Lakes, L 2-3 @ Brainerd, W 7-0 @ Morris
The Sabres continued their season-long habit of dropping close contests, falling to a Brainerd bunch whom they defeated a few weeks prior. At least they picked up two section wins, which keeps them in the running to host a quarterfinal. The Cathedral contest will likely determine whether that turns out to be the case, as the Crusaders have a similar section record.
Next: Mon vs Willmar, Thu vs SCC, Sat @ Wadena

20. Detroit Lakes (8-7-0) [LW NR]
W 6-3 vs Park Rapids, W 4-1 @ Alexandria
Why not? The Lakers have a few solid wins over LDC and now Alex, and don't have any bad losses. In fact, all of their defeats are to ranked teams (most in the top 10). DL doesn't have any big scorers, but they are relatively deep, and the return of defenseman Braeden Wimmer against Alex provided a boost. The Tuesday tussle with Cathedral is interesting, but they should mow through the lower tier 8A opponents to secure at least the #4 seed.
Next: Tue @ SCC, Thu vs Wadena, Sat vs Crookston

Out: Orono, Mankato West