AA Rankings for 12/11/22

[karl(east)]

The chaos has arrived! This time of year always feels like an awkward in between mode, in which we have a few interesting results to work with, but it’s hard to know if that one big win or loss is a statement about where a team is or merely a hiccup. The rankings, however, must go on.

1. Wayzata (5-0)
-The Trojans continue to buzz through top-flight opponents, taking down Hill and Benilde this past week in classic Wayzata fashion with 2-1 and 4-1 scorelines. They continue to compile the quality wins, and in a season where it looks like things will be wide open in AA, they are climbing to the top of the heap with their relentless puck control. They can keep the train going against the defending champs this week.
This week: Sat at #6 Andover

2. Rogers (5-0)
-The Royals showed they’re for real with a second big win, this time over Andover. They stay at number two because their schedule hasn’t been quite the caliber of Wayzata’s, but at this point, they’re an easy choice for this spot. If they take down Minnetonka this week, they’ll solidify a lofty ranking for some time to come.
This week: Thurs vs. Blaine, Sat at #5 Minnetonka

3. Lakeville South (2-1)
-It’s hard to say too much about the Cougars given their light early schedule, but here they are, not doing anything unexpected as chaos ensues around them. Their opponents before Christmas are all of the sort-of-good-but-not-great category.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Sat vs. Eastview

4. St. Thomas Academy (5-0)
-The Cadets took care of business this past week, beating a Blake team that later beat Eden Prairie and taking down Simley. They don’t have the quality wins of the other two undefeated teams near the top here, but they have looked good and are doing what they need to do. On paper their two games this week are wins, but they can’t quite take either opponent for granted, either.
This week: Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at Holy Family

5. Minnetonka (5-1)
-The Skippers did not have a confidence-inspiring week, as they needed overtime to escape Rosemount and lost to a section opponent in Chanhassen. They’re not going to fall too far after their strong start, but we can quiet any talk about them being far ahead of the pack. Doing some damage against Rogers this week could restore some faith here.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. #2 Rogers

6. Andover (3-3)
-What to make of the Huskies? Their losses have all come to top-flight teams, and they have two quality wins to their record, so it’s hardly as if they’ve gone off a cliff. Let’s not forget that last season’s run came from the 5-seed position, and they spent four weeks out of the top five, including several at the end. Still, any aura of invincibility for the defending champs is clearly gone now. The tests just keep coming, with a the new top-ranked team in the state and a quietly strong Champlin team to come.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. #1 Wayzata

7. Chanhassen (4-1)
-Time to start believing here, as the Storm took down Minnetonka to make a 2AA statement. It’s probably the biggest win for the program to date, though time will tell if it sets the stage for anything more. A mystery Gentry team highlights the week ahead.
This week: Thurs at Gentry Academy, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

8. Moorhead (4-3)
-The Spuds collected wins against a couple of section opponents, though the margin of victory over Buffalo still doesn’t suggest that their early season losses are some fluke. Now they just get to sit back and watch things happen around them.
This week: Idle

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (1-2)
-The Red Knights are challenging to place after just three games, as their Andover win has good value, but they’ve come up short against their two big section rivals. Their schedule now heads into a run of private schools, with Cretin providing the first test.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Cretin-Derham Hall, Sat at Holy Angels

10. Maple Grove (4-2)
-Easy pickings against weak competition for the Crimson this past week. While somewhat better than the past few, this week’s opponent hasn’t done much to suggest they’ll be able to hang around in this one, either.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids

11. Edina (1-3)
-Didn’t play, but the Benilde win did acquire a little more cachet after the Red Knights beat Andover. They now head in to their annual Holiday Classic, which doesn’t have quite the intrigue it sometimes does; on paper, this year’s edition is the Hornets’ to lose, though we’ll see what they can make up the stout Grand Rapids defense and a reloading rival on Saturday.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Fri vs. Elk River, Sat vs. Eden Prairie

12. Hill-Murray (2-2)
-The plodding, low-scoring games continue for the Pioneers, as they fell to Wayzata in a tight one but also struggled to put Tartan away. Given history it’s hardly cause for concern at this point, but it’s worth watching. We’ll see what they make of a Class A power next.
This week: Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Sat at Hastings

13. Stillwater (4-1)
-A few 4AA teams are stockpiled here, and the Ponies are sitting pretty after they followed up their Maple Grove win last week with a victory over section rival White Bear. The Centennial loss keeps them from going too high, but there’s definitely something to watch here. The Woodbury schools take center stage this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Woodbury, Sat vs. East Ridge

14. White Bear Lake (4-1)
-A loss to Stillwater sets the Bears back some here; they rebounded by putting up eight on Roseville. After Eastview they don’t play another top 20 team until late January, so the opportunity is here to run up a gaudy record, but the question of how well they stack up with the known quantities in the top ten will linger.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Forest Lake

15. Cretin-Derham Hall (3-2)
-The Raiders rolled past the Woodburys, which helps provide a stable baseline here, and they remain ranked by virtue of the Eden Prairie win. Benilde now gives them a chance to prove something.
This week: Thurs at #9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. Park (Cottage Grove)

The Next Ten

Eden Prairie (1-3)
-The Eagles lost one they probably should not have against Blake, and then took it out on Duluth East to finally get a win. They probably have the most to prove of the teams in Edina this week: can this young group make a statement and show they’re a contender?

Eastview (4-1)
-Plugging along against conference competition and doing what they need to do. A busy week awaits, including a quality White Bear team and conference frontrunner Lakeville South. Can they make any sort of move here?

Centennial (3-2-1)
-The Cougars aren’t giving us very consistent data points in the early going, having tied Hermantown and beaten Stillwater while also losing to White Bear and Eastview. This slot will do for now. They continue a run of northern foes with Duluth East and Roseau this coming week.

Grand Rapids (5-1)
-The Thunderhawks couldn’t quite hang on against Warroad, bringing their undefeated run to an end, but this team certainly has its formula down. No team has scored more than three goals in any contest they’ve been involved in so far. We’ll see if they can keep that up against some strong Metro attacks when they head to Edina this week.

Shakopee (1-1)
-A loss to Lakeville North cools some of the Saber hype. They’re now deep into conference play and should theoretically be okay against Apple Valley/Burnsville and Eagan.

Holy Family (5-1)
-Won both their games this past week, but eking one out against Prior Lake doesn’t make a convincing case to climb here. We’ll see what they can do with St. Thomas in their lone game ahead of them here.

Blake (3-2)
-A win over Eden Prairie is a nice get for the Bears, but none of their other results quite inspire confidence in their top 20 status quite yet. They are idle this coming week.

Holy Angels (3-0)
-Beat St. Paul Academy in their only game this past week. Benilde now looms as their first serious test.

Champlin Park (4-1)
-Putting up some decent scorelines, but they have lost to Woodbury. Andover is up next as a reality check.

Totino-Grace (1-2)
-Their two losses aren’t bad, and they beat the Elk River team that was otherwise angling for this spot, so I’ll give the Eagles some momentary love. They now get a visit from Thief River Falls.

Sections
For my own sanity I’m doing this a week earlier than I’d normally do it; it’ll be three weeks until I do it again.

1AA
3 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Rochester Mayo
Hastings
-The North win over Shakopee signals some potential, but we’ll get a clearer picture when the Lakevilles meet for the first time this week. Mayo and Hastings tied, which does little to clarify the 3- and 4-seeds, but they do appear likely to grab those two at the moment. Otherwise, we wait to learn more.

2AA
7 Chanhassen
5 Minnetonka
16 Eden Prairie
20 Shakopee
21 Holy Family
-Chanhassen has made the early statement with the win over Minnetonka and have given themselves a fighting chance at the top seed in a section where that distinction has real value. Shakopee has the early Holy Family win to its name, but beyond that, we’re in a waiting game here.

3AA
4 St. Thomas Academy
15 Cretin-Derham Hall
17 Eastview
Rosemount
-The Cadets are sitting pretty after wins over their two chief rivals in this section, though the Cretin rematch looms before Christmas. A win there and they may have the top seed sealed, with the question of the 2-seed lingering until a late January meeting between Cretin and Eastview. Rosemount’s overtime effort with Minnetonka suggests the Irish may not go lightly in sections.

4AA
12 Hill-Murray
13 Stillwater
14 White Bear Lake
Woodbury
-This section is now looking wide open among the top three, as Stillwater has vaulted into the picture with the win over White Bear. Woodbury has been passable while Gentry remains something of a mystery given their schedule, so we’ll see if one of them emerges in time in the race for the 4-seed.

5AA
2 Rogers
10 Maple Grove
18 Centennial
24 Champlin Park
25 Totino-Grace
-The top four here have yet to play one another, but there are a few contests among them in the coming weeks that will help clarify things. For now it looks like one tier for the top two teams and another for the next two, with Totino potentially in the picture as well. This section may be as deep as the two in the West Metro this season.

6AA
1 Wayzata
11 Edina
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
22 Blake
23 Holy Angels
-The order is pretty straightforward among the top three right now, but the Edina-Wayzata meetings will have a chance to changes that. Benilde, meanwhile, may already be consigned to the 3-seed, barring some craziness here.

7AA
6 Andover
19 Grand Rapids
Duluth East
Coon Rapids
-Rapids has been a pleasant surprise here so far, though it remains to be seen if Andover’s vulnerabilities are substantial enough to make this a race. East has proven it can rout the lower-tier teams here but has yet to do anything of note against a quality opponent. It’s a bit of a wasteland after the top three.

8AA
8 Moorhead
Elk River
St. Cloud
Sartell
-Hello, parity: even the clear number one, Moorhead, has had two pretty close calls against sections teams that are nowhere near the top 25. Elk River’s win over Roseau has them looking decent in the race for the 2-seed, but beyond that, it’s basically a guessing game. St. Cloud has looked respectable and Sartell escaped with a win against Bemidji, so we’ll throw those two in the top four for now.

[Cookster]

WIthout a doubt, Karl, reading your rankings is part of my Sunday ritual. Walk the dog, read the rankings. Thanks for what you do to make winter go by a little easier

Interesting in your comment that seems spot on. Benilde is probably stuck in the 3 spot in their section, and they have 20+ games to go. That is the challenge when you play Wayzata and Edina early and sections later. Maybe they should think about moving some Metro West section games up and playing Wayzata and Edina in Jan/Feb like they have done with Eden Prairie.

[WestMetro]

Well done . How late did you have to work last nite to sort the situation out after the Chan win ?!?!

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great stuff as always, Karl!

Prior Lake is quietly playing a little better than I expected after everything they lost. Nothing earth-shattering, but they could yet prove to be a tough out for whoever draws them in sections.

[stateofhawkey]

Kare 11's Top 11 posted yesterday on the MNHockey TV Twitter Page

1. Rogers
2. Wayzata
3. Chanhassen
4. Minnetonka
5. St. Thomas Academy
6. Grand Rapids
7. Hill-Murray
8. Lakeville South
9. Stillwater
10. Maple Grove
11. Holy Family

[Mite-dad]

I just gotta say, it is so cool to see Rogers ranked in the top! It is definitely the sore thumb in these rankings! Can we still claim them as an "outstate" team? Just nice to see a non-traditional school in the top rankings.

[elliott70]

Kare 11's Top 11 posted yesterday on the MNHockey TV Twitter Page
versus Karl's rankings
Of course KARE 11 had an extra game.

1. Rogers 2
2. Wayzata 1

3. Chanhassen 7
4. Minnetonka 5

5. St. Thomas Academy 4

6. Grand Rapids 19
7. Hill-Murray 12

8. Lakeville South 3

9. Stillwater 13
10. Maple Grove 10

11. Holy Family 21

Andover 6
Moorhead 8
Benilde 9

[Slap Shot]

It's not often you see both EP and Edina out of the top 10 at the same time.