Sections 1AA, 4AA and 8AA

[SpreadOut!]

…are very weak this year. It’s years like this that I sometimes wish MSHSL would move to hockey playoff system like they do with largest football class…where teams are seeded 1-32 (I realize there are more than 32 AA hockey teams, but you get my point). I doubt MSHSL would ever do this, as there would be years where it’s an all metro tourney (which still could happen under current system), but whoever comes out of sections 1AA, 4AA and 8AA this year will clearly not be among the state’s top 8 teams. Moorhead won both Bantam AA and Peewee AA state championships last year, so 8AA should be stronger over next several years, but 1AA in particular is gonna be pathetically weak for the foreseeable future unless a couple other south metro programs (Prior Lake, Chaska, Chanhassen, Rosemount, Shakopee?) get moved into it.

[Smooth]

I disagree, keep watching

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

(Mike Tice voice) OK, calm down.

It's only been very recently that we've had tournament fields that have been an embarrassment of riches, as far as serious championship contenders. Historically, I'd say most years you had a couple of favorites, and one or two that would be considered a mild surprise if they won the whole thing.

Those sections may well have the weakest entrants, but by historical standards, they're still above average. We don't need constant tinkering so we mess it up, like college football has.

[SpreadOut!]

I can buy the “calm down” argument with 8AA (Moorhead will be strong for next several years) and 4AA (I assume Hill Murray will right the ship after a bad season this year, as they have done historically), but 1AA is a big problem moving forward. The talent with the Lakeville programs drops off dramatically after this year and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. And we all know the problems with the Rochesters. Who else is there? Hastings, Farmington? Nope, not good either. That section has to be addressed.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

We should be grateful for the Lakevilles giving us a good ten years of quality teams from Section 1, as that section was extremely weak for a good 20 years. But, moving forward, Section 1 should be split vertically. There is no inherent justification for a section to run east to west across the bottom of the state. Coupled with the strength of 2AA, a re-jiggering would be wise. I'm not sure how to judge the statewide competitiveness of a section, but some metric of 1/4 final and possibly semifinal wins over a decade would be reasonable.

[farmtown55]

Unlike Edina, Minnetonka, Wayzata and Eden Prairie, Lakeville split into two schools. Student population at these schools is - Wayzata =3,687. Tonka = 3,411. EP = 2,828. Edina = 2683. LVS = 1809. LVN = 1,769. Since 2012 Lakeville schools have won state one time, took second one time and third one time. It they had stayed one school they would have dominated high school hockey for the past ten years like no other school. It is not the fault of those schools that hockey south of the river has fallen off terribly in the past 6-7 years. But, to be honest I have no issues with realignment to make 1AA stronger.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Yeah, those 4 schools are really huge. I can't recall the enrollment for the Edina high schools in, say, 1974, which was around the height of the baby boom enrollment years. Same for the 3 Bloomington high schools at that time.

[goldy313]

1AA….. they have been an issue in hockey for a while. Not so much in other sports and the MSHSL uses the same system for every sport. In section 1 land we have the same complaint in football others do in hockey.

I think next year the MSHSL realigns the sections. John Marshall is probably done as a stand alone program and if the MSHSL allows Dodge County to stay in A that will leave 1AA with 7 teams. The most likely scenario there to add a metro team is to add Rosemount or Apple Valley/Burnsville. Neither does much. Prior Lake, Shakopee, and Chanhassen are just not geographically well suited.

All that said Northfield is one of the largest A schools….and they lost to Century and Mayo. New Prague is another option if they meet the enrollment criteria. Neither do much to improve hockey but are in section 1 in most sports.

Currently in all major sports the MSHSL has made a line in keeping section 1 an “out state” section (Lakeville is still surrounded on 2 sides by agricultural land). Given a chance I don’t think they change that.

Honestly, I think they should put Rosemount and STA in 1AA. They would fit geographically as I don’t think you jump Eagan, especially if you moved Hastings out.

[SpreadOut!]

My recommendation that makes sense geographically and competitively would be to move Prior Lake into 1AA from 2AA, and to swap the sections of Hastings (currently in 1AA) with Rosemount (currently in 3AA). This works on a map, and it would make 1AA more competitive with the addition of two high schools in growing communities that have youth associations fielding competitive AA teams at the peewee and bantam level.

[goldy313]

The problem with Prior Lake is now you take a metro team West of I-35. Not a 1AA team in any form in any sport. Look at the administrative sections.

I think I 35 is the boundary for metro schools. Arbitrary as it is. Owatonna and Lakeville both abut I-35 on the West but don’t cross it.

I don’t think it makes sense, as far as the way the MSHSL does things.

I would think Simley, Park, Rosemount, Apple Valley, Eastview, STA, Eagan, Sibley, Northfield New Prague and the Bloomington schools would end up in 1AA before Prior Lake.

[SpreadOut!]

I guess I’m just looking at north-south, not east-west. When I say makes sense on a map, you wouldn’t be jumping around teams to include Prior Lake in 1AA. I could draw a pretty clean circle in map including them with the rest of the teams in 1AA. Prior Lake is not far at all from Lakeville.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Hockey is different than most sports in MN. There is the relatively huge cluster in the Metro, and then it's very scattered in the rest of the state. I think making an arbitrary decision to use the same paradigm for hockey that you use for all other sports just makes it that much tougher.

I find it interesting that the MSHSL deliberately does not consider competitive balance, but does consider keeping an entire section as an outstate section is desirable. That is also arbitrary in nature.

I'm old enough to remember when it was the Bloomington schools that were dominating Region 1, and later Section 1. When they got shifted out, it was Burnsville and Apple Valley that dominated that section, until they got shifted out.

Back before STA became STAA, I advocated that any A school opting up should get put in Section 1 for 2 or 4 years. So now is a good time to dust off that proposal, though I don't know of any likely candidates.

Hastings is no more of a Sec 1 school than Rosemount or AV.

[SpreadOut!]

100% agree, Pioneer Guy.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

100% agree, Pioneer Guy.

I have serious doubts about your judgement.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Using PageStat, I aggregated section strength based on average ranking:

7AA - Worst, with an average ranking of 63.00
1AA
5AA
4AA
8AA
6AA
3AA
2AA - Best, with an average ranking of 27.62

If you removed the highest ranked team and the lowest ranked team from each section, here's how it breaks down:

1AA - Worst, with an average ranking of 63.66
7AA
8AA
5AA
4AA
3AA
6AA
2AA - Best, with an average ranking of 22.33

Either way, sections 6AA/3AA/2AA would be considered the strongest overall sections and 1AA & 7AA would be considered the weakest. 4AA/5AA/8AA middle of the pack. Do with that what you will.