AA Rankings for 2/9/25

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by karl(east) »

There’s just one week to go in the regular season, and after over two months of near total stasis at the top, all chaos has finally broken loose. I kind of missed it, and am excited to see what a bunch of other good games do to it this week. It’s also time for one last look at section seeding as we head into playoff hockey. It’s all downhill for me from here.

1. Moorhead (22-1)
-The Spuds enjoyed a week off as they gear up for the final push. The final week is a nasty one, though, with two top teams: either they’ll head into sections as the clear number one, or the state scene will be thrown into total mystery in the regular season’s final week. Either way, they’ll hit the playoffs in battle-tested form.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Rogers, Sat at #2 Hill-Murray

2. Hill-Murray (20-2-1)
-The Pioneers fought past Rogers on Saturday, and with the other four teams in the 2-6 range last week all losing, they are now the clear choice for number two. How do they wrap up the season? Well, how about a rematch with their biggest conference rival who beat them the first time and then a date with number one. The top of these rankings could be remade completely over the next week, and it all runs through Hill.
This week: Thurs at #4 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. #1 Moorhead

3. Stillwater (17-6; 19-4 on ice)
-The charge of the Ponies has begun: with wins over St. Thomas and Cretin in the past two weeks, they have breached a top six that had held the same teams in these rankings since they first in-season edition. Between head-to-head results and overall record, they have a legitimate case for this spot now, though I don’t think they can go higher even if Hill loses twice this week. They’ve got the horsepower to run with anyone, and with the goalie saga apparently resolved, it’s all good news on the St. Croix. They’ll look to fine tune things in the week ahead before setting their sights on a run to the Tourney.
**EDIT: Record has been updated to reflect the Ponies' forfeits. Rankings are based on on-ice results, so this does not change my ranking.
This week: Thurs at East Ridge, Sat at Holy Family

4. St. Thomas Academy (19-4)
-The Cadets dropped a game for a second week in a row, and losing to Maple Grove raises a bit more of an eyebrow than a loss to a Stillwater team that has been in the top ten all season. That is some cause for concern as they head into the most important weeks of the season, but they do have a chance to right the ship—or spiral further—against some of 4AA’s finest this coming week.
This week: Tues vs. #14 White Bear Lake, Thurs vs. #2 Hill-Murray

5. Edina (16-6-1)
-The Hornets stormed back to salvage a tie against Wayzata, but between that and a narrow win against St. Michael-Albertville, this is hardly a classic Edina team burying its opposition at the moment. Instead, they hover, and will take a swing at a Lake Conference title this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. Minnetonka, Sat at #13 Eden Prairie

6. Cretin-Derham Hall (19-3-1)
-The Raiders stumbled against Stillwater but hold on to their eternal perch of number six in the state with Rogers’ bad week. Watching this team frustrates me immensely: they have the depth and raw talent to win the whole thing, but the lack of discipline is consistent and glaring, and they are not pulling together when necessary. They wrap up against two of the better teams in the Suburban East, including a rematch with White Bear that featured some fireworks at the end last time around. Can they keep their composure this time?
This week: Thurs vs. Park of Cottage Grove, Sat vs. #14 White Bear Lake

7. Rogers (19-3-1)
-The Royals tripled their loss total on the season over the past week; while the Hill-Murray loss isn’t terribly damaging, the Andover loss is a bit more concerning for a team that, for as good as the record is, has not seemed to click on all cylinders against the highest-level competition. They get one last shot to make a statement when they head up to face the top-ranked team in the state on Thursday.
This week: Tues vs. Chanhassen, Sat at #1 Moorhead

8. Shakopee (17-5-1)
-It’s showtime in Shakopee, as the Sabers appear to have shaken off their early season slumber and put an exclamation point on their South Suburban championship with a 6-2 win over Rosemount. The star power is here, and it may be showing up at the right time. On paper they should now sail into sections.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Fri at Eastview

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (18-5)
-The Red Knights had a solid trip north, fending off Hermantown and Grand Rapids to collect a couple of quality wins. Those aren’t the sorts of games that are going to move the needle a ton here, but they have been pretty consistent lately, and they aren’t going to go quietly in sections. A 20-win regular season is in the crosshairs this week.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs vs. Chanhassen

10. Holy Angels (20-3-1)
-The Stars enjoyed some target practice against a smattering of very beatable metro area teams. They should wrap things up with another win this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong/Cooper

11. Rosemount (20-3)
-The Irish have had a great regular season but still bleed too many goals, and that came back to haunt them against Shakopee. The schedule hasn’t been hard, but two wins this week will give them the best regular season in program history.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington, Sat vs. Eagan

12. Wayzata (13-7-3)
-The Trojans were ever so close to a regular season sweep of Edina and a likely top seed in 6AA, but the picture has grown murkier after they surrendered three late goals and settled for a tie. It sums up their season, which has had as many flashes against top teams as anyone but has not quite found the consistency to join that group.
This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat at Minnetonka

13. Eden Prairie (15-6-2; 14-7-2 on ice)
-A commanding win over Minnetonka should lock up the top seed in 2AA for the Eagles; has there been a quieter top seed in modern 2AA history? They’ve won eight in a row since a midseason slump and have a decent collection of quality results, even if they may not have Shakopee’s flair. If they can manage a competitive showing against Edina (which they did not the first time around), they may be in position to do some damage.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. #5 Edina

14. White Bear Lake (14-5-3)
-A loss to Centennial dumps the Bears a few spots in the rankings; though the Cougars have a few decent pieces, that is not a loss a top ten team should be taking. It hasn’t been a great past two weeks, which is concerning as their two biggest section rivals surge; can they do anything in a very busy final week to re-apply some pressure in the section?
This week: Tues at #4 St. Thomas Academy, Thurs at Woodbury, Sat at #6 Cretin-Derham Hall

15. Rock Ridge (19-3-2)
-The Wolverines got the job done against Duluth East but had an adventure against Pine City, which was not on my bingo card for something out of a top 15 team this season. Still, they hang on here as the teams below them move around a bit. They close out against a lower tier section opponent whom they have a slight chance of facing again in the quarterfinals.
This week: Tues at Cambridge-Isanti

The Next Ten

Maple Grove (15-7-1; 14-8-1 on ice)
-The Crimson made a statement with a big win over St. Thomas, flashing some potential and perhaps earning a backward glance from a Rogers team that also took a stumble this past week. There have been road bumps this season, but they have the resources to skate with anyone. The rematch with Andover this week, which they won 8-5 a month ago, will be an interesting test of two rising Northwest Suburban recent powerhouses aiming to take down some favorites; Lakeville South isn’t a pushover, either.

Andover (11-12)
-The Huskies put the rest of the state on notice with an upset of Rogers. Yes, they also lost to Blaine this past week; they clearly have some limits, especially on the offensive end. But they play tough, structured hockey and are strong in net, and that should be enough to scare the other 7AA contenders, who are far from perfect teams too. They wrap up with Centennial and Maple Grove, giving them a chance to slip back above .500.

Grand Rapids (15-8-1)
-After falling to Benilde the Thunderhawks are now winless in their past six games against quality competition. They’ve only mustered more than two goals in one of those games, so a power outage is the obvious culprit, though they haven’t found a way to steal one via defense and goaltending, either. It’s not a great trend heading into sections, though a win Hermantown this week could provide a valuable boost as they head into 7AA.

Minnetonka (12-9-2)
-The Skippers’ offense has abandoned them in many big games down the stretch, and a second shutout loss to Eden Prairie dashes any hopes of the 2AA 1-seed, and perhaps the 2-seed too. It doesn’t get any easier in the season’s final week, as they get Wayzata and Edina. We’re still waiting for that one big win here.

Bemidji (16-5-2)
-The Lumberjacks have been models of steadiness this season, and while a tie with East Grand Forks is another of the sort of results that have kept them from ever cracking the top 15, they continued their steady procession against teams not named in Moorhead in 8AA by taking down respectable Elk River 4-1. Their final week gives them a chance to avenge their earlier loss to Warroad.

Lakeville South (13-9)
-Edged Prior Lake to keep the steady train going for the clear class of 1AA and South Suburban for teams not named Shakopee or Rosemount. They have an interesting final week, with three games in three days including two Northwest Suburban teams around them here in the rankings, Maple Grove and Champlin Park.

Holy Family (16-6)
-Fended off Sartell to collect a decent win and hold steady here. A three-game final week includes a shot at Stillwater.

Champlin Park (14-8)
-The Rebels logged wins against Forest Lake and Blaine, with the latter likely securing the 4-seed in 5AA. They have a three-game, all nonconference final week highlighted by a game with Lakeville South.

Park of Cottage Grove (13-9-1)
-The Wolfpack are on a bit of a skid following losses to White Bear Lake and, more concerningly, Woodbury. Respectable Two Rivers (a likely quarterfinal opponent) and Cretin make for a tough push to the end, too.

Blaine (14-9)
-This is not an enthusiastic pick here, but they have at least avoided bad losses lately, which none of the other contenders for this spot can say. Elk River and Woodbury, who had a pretty good past week, make for an interesting last two games; I considered both for this spot.

1AA
21 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Rochester Century/John Marshall
New Prague
-This section hasn’t moved much all season, and it shouldn’t in the final week of the regular season, either. South remains the prohibitive favorite; North’s narrow win over New Prague this past week suggests they are the best of the rest, but hardly far above the field. Century/John Marshall had one flashy result against Holy Family that gave a hint of belief, but that’s about all there is.

2AA
13 Eden Prairie
8 Shakopee
19 Minnetonka
22 Holy Family
-Eden Prairie should have the top seed sealed after a second win over Minnetonka; they have a perfect section record. Two versus three has arguments both ways, but I think Shakopee has done enough down the stretch (while Minnetonka has faded) that they deserve the 2-seed in spite of the Holy Family loss. The Fire lurk as a respectable 4-seed.

3AA
4 St. Thomas Academy
6 Cretin-Derham Hall
11 Rosemount
24 Park of Cottage Grove
-I think this one is set, too; Rosemount has some argument for a 2-seed, but I just don’t think the strength of schedule is there. Park against St. Thomas has some decent juice for a potential semifinal.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
3 Stillwater
14 White Bear Lake
Gentry Academy
-I’m pretty comfortable with this one too, as Stillwater’s revenge win over White Bear and overall body of work has the Ponies edging the Bears for the 2-seed. Gentry has the early win over Roseville to make them the favorite for the 4-seed, with Woodbury perhaps clambering into that 4-5 quarterfinal with a win over Roseville this past week.

5AA
7 Rogers
16 Maple Grove
Totino-Grace
23 Champlin Park
25 Blaine
-Rogers stands astride this section in pursuit of its first Tourney berth, though the Andover loss does leave a sliver of hope for the chase pack here. The pecking order is straightforward after that, though anyone between two and five is good enough to beat one of the others on any given night, and even Centennial showed a flash this past week with a win over White Bear Lake. Totino’s loss to Mankato West has dropped the Eagles from the top 25, but they’ve done enough in the section to be the 3-seed.

6AA
5 Edina
12 Wayzata
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
10 Holy Angels
-Many sections are pretty clear to seed; this one is not. I think the Hornets’ overall effort and tie with Wayzata is probably enough to take the top seed; they certainly are the team to beat here regardless of how the vote goes. Beyond that the rankings are a jumble relative to the seeds, but based on section work, I think this is the right order.

7AA
15 Rock Ridge
18 Grand Rapids
17 Andover
Forest Lake
-The Wolverines, who are undefeated in the section, are now the favorite to claim the top seed here. Grand Rapids and Andover are a bit of a coin flip for the 2-seed, as the coaches will need to weigh Rapids’ stronger record against the head-to-head result, though the functional difference is not large. Similarly, Forest Lake and Duluth Marshall could flip in the fight for the 4-seed, unless the Hilltoppers lose to Duluth East or Cambridge this coming week.

8AA
1 Moorhead
20 Bemidji
Sartell
Elk River
-The top two are set, as they have been for a while. Sartell, with wins over Elk River and St. Michael-Albertville, has, I think, done enough to grab the 3-seed, while the Elks have tied Roseau and done enough elsewhere to get a home game in the first round. If anyone has a claim to going higher it’s probably Roseau, but the STMA loss is killer for the Rams.
Sparlimb
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by Sparlimb »

East-Side Rankings for 02/09/2025

1. Moorhead (22-1)
2. Hill-Murray (20-2-1)
3. Saint Thomas Academy (19-4)
4. Rogers (19-3-1)
5. Edina (16-6-1)
6. Stillwater (19-4)
7. Cretin-Derham Hall (19-3-1)
8. Shakopee (17-5-1)
9. White Bear Lake (14-5-3)
10. Benilde-St. Margaret (18-5)
11. Holy Angels (20-3-1)
12. Rock Ridge (19-3-2)
13. Wayzata (13-7-3)
14. Rosemount (20-3)
15. Eden Prairie (14-7-2)
16. Minnetonka (12-9-2)
17. Maple Grove (14-8-1)
18. Grand Rapids (15-8-1)
19. Bemidji (16-5-2)
20. Holy Family (16-6)

Also Receiving Votes: Andover (11-12), Champlin Park (15-8), Two Rivers (17-3-2)
bardown27
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by bardown27 »

Karl can you explain your rationale for having Shakopee ahead of Benilde? Benilde has the H2H win, had 2 wins vs your current top 10 (Shakopee has none), and common opponents Benilde is 8-0 while Shakopee is 5-3
East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

I guess this is why I'm coming to give greater weight to Spar's ranking than Karl's. Karl just goes by his gut, but Spar, why he just tallies up the votes and let's the chips fall where they may. 8)

This is the first week I favor Spar's rankings over those of The Great Man. (Did I ever tell you about the time I touched the hem of his garment at St Louis Park Rec?)

Rogers needs a bit of luck and slightly better play to win the title. HM, Moorhead, & STA can do it on their own. Stillwater and Cre-TINE would need the planets to align. Edina? That's a bit tougher to say, They're certainly capable, and never underestimate the ability of a coach with loads of tournament experience to get enough mileage out of a dark horse to get to the final. This could be the difference for Rogers and STA, with coaches that have no tournament experience. (Yeah, I know Strobel was in it as a player, I was in section 210. That experience will of marginal help to him coming in as a head coach.)

How the pairings shake out will be very interesting. Section 1, 2, and 7 look to be unseeded, and the higher seeds won't get screwed drawing any of those. Edina losing to anyone in sections would give #4 a softer draw; it's a similar story for STA. I'd much rather draw STA than Cre-TINE. It seems highly likely that there will be 4 solid contenders on Friday night, any of which will be capable of winning two games.

Getting to Friday night is the goal every season. When you've gotten that far, anything is possible.
Hockey Is For Everyone
bardown27
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by bardown27 »

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:57 pm I guess this is why I'm coming to give greater weight to Spar's ranking than Karl's. Karl just goes by his gut, but Spar, why he just tallies up the votes and let's the chips fall where they may. 8)

This is the first week I favor Spar's rankings over those of The Great Man. (Did I ever tell you about the time I touched the hem of his garment at St Louis Park Rec?)

Rogers needs a bit of luck and slightly better play to win the title. HM, Moorhead, & STA can do it on their own. Stillwater and Cre-TINE would need the planets to align. Edina? That's a bit tougher to say, They're certainly capable, and never underestimate the ability of a coach with loads of tournament experience to get enough mileage out of a dark horse to get to the final. This could be the difference for Rogers and STA, with coaches that have no tournament experience. (Yeah, I know Strobel was in it as a player, I was in section 210. That experience will of marginal help to him coming in as a head coach.)

How the pairings shake out will be very interesting. Section 1, 2, and 7 look to be unseeded, and the higher seeds won't get screwed drawing any of those. Edina losing to anyone in sections would give #4 a softer draw; it's a similar story for STA. I'd much rather draw STA than Cre-TINE. It seems highly likely that there will be 4 solid contenders on Friday night, any of which will be capable of winning two games.

Getting to Friday night is the goal every season. When you've gotten that far, anything is possible.
WBL just lost to an 8-15 Centennial team and Spar has WBL in his top 10, ahead of a BSM team who’s losses are to #1, 2, 3, 5 and 12. don’t give him his flowers so fast.
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by BlueLineSpecial »

I'd rank BSM ahead of WBL. Not sure there's a ton of difference in the ceiling for either team, styles of play aside. Both have a tendancy in recent weeks to let average teams hang around, and/or require some last-minute heroics to win/tie/keep a game closer on the scoreboard than it should have been.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year
East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Hockey Is For Everyone
green4
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by green4 »

If you look back a week, Spar actually moves WBL up a spot from 10 to 9 after losing to centennial
green4
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by green4 »

If you look back a week, Spar actually moves WBL up a spot from 10 to 9 after losing to centennial
elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by elliott70 »

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:26 pm Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Middle?
raidergrad72
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by raidergrad72 »

elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 3:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:26 pm Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Middle?
So, you finally looked in the mirror with the Forum mic attached at your house and saw what we've known all along. :-P
TTpuckster
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by TTpuckster »

:lol:
elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 3:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:26 pm Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Middle?
:lol:
What is a Green Wave anyway?
East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 3:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:26 pm Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Middle?
Didn't you hear? The Boomers, which I am not one of re-defined middle age to be older than it used to be.
Hockey Is For Everyone
elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by elliott70 »

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 5:30 pm
elliott70 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 3:43 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:26 pm Yeah, I really only said that about Spar for two reasons. One is I think The Great Man has Stillwater a bit high, and Spar does not. The other is that I'm just saying something nice about Spar in in the event I take a shot a him some other time.

Consider all of my posts to be the erudite ramblings of a middle aged lunatic.
Middle?
Didn't you hear? The Boomers, which I am not one of re-defined middle age to be older than it used to be.
After seeing you in person I would say you are a bit beyond middle.
Sparlimb
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by Sparlimb »

green4 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:35 pm If you look back a week, Spar actually moves WBL up a spot from 10 to 9 after losing to centennial
True, but when I do the weekly rankings, I update the records and try and re-rank from that. But I also play a game in my head of what have I seen. Benilde played an even game against Grand Rapids, so that didn't inspire confidence. Either does WBL's loss and it looks like they'll get Stillwater in the section semi's and be done. But as I always say, the best part of high school hockey is none of it matters. You can be a 6 seed (see Buffalo last year) and play a 7 seed in the section semis and then have your shot to go to state. Everyone gets put back in the bucket, so to speak.

Here's what I've seen so far. In the 40 or so games I've watched, Moorhead looks the best. That will be put on the line this week however. Hill-Murray isn't quite as good, but if they beat Moorhead and then make state, they are likely the #1 seed. Cretin looks like they could beat anyone on the right day, or possibly just take 3 majors in 4 minutes just cause they felt like belting the other team in the head.

As much as I respect Rapids, I would like to see Rock Ridge make it because with the metro teams that are in 7AA, it will be hard for them to find another year. But I think Rapids can beat anyone any night too. What's interesting is both Holy Angels and BSM can beat Wayzata and Edina on semi-final night, but just like last year, I bet it doesn't happen. This coming from a guy who was the loudest Chris Student fan one year at Mariucci when they upset the hornets in OT. Ask ChrisK, he was there with me.

ESP is right about the favorites. I still think CDH beats STA in sections. Stillwater and Hill is going to be a hell of a game if it happens.

And lastly, we should talk about our sleeper pick. Which Elliot has been whispering about all year. The Bemidji Lumberjacks. A team ready for greatness. You heard it here first.
elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by elliott70 »

Sparlimb wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 7:26 pm
green4 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:35 pm If you look back a week, Spar actually moves WBL up a spot from 10 to 9 after losing to centennial
True, but when I do the weekly rankings, I update the records and try and re-rank from that. But I also play a game in my head of what have I seen. Benilde played an even game against Grand Rapids, so that didn't inspire confidence. Either does WBL's loss and it looks like they'll get Stillwater in the section semi's and be done. But as I always say, the best part of high school hockey is none of it matters. You can be a 6 seed (see Buffalo last year) and play a 7 seed in the section semis and then have your shot to go to state. Everyone gets put back in the bucket, so to speak.

Here's what I've seen so far. In the 40 or so games I've watched, Moorhead looks the best. That will be put on the line this week however. Hill-Murray isn't quite as good, but if they beat Moorhead and then make state, they are likely the #1 seed. Cretin looks like they could beat anyone on the right day, or possibly just take 3 majors in 4 minutes just cause they felt like belting the other team in the head.

As much as I respect Rapids, I would like to see Rock Ridge make it because with the metro teams that are in 7AA, it will be hard for them to find another year. But I think Rapids can beat anyone any night too. What's interesting is both Holy Angels and BSM can beat Wayzata and Edina on semi-final night, but just like last year, I bet it doesn't happen. This coming from a guy who was the loudest Chris Student fan one year at Mariucci when they upset the hornets in OT. Ask ChrisK, he was there with me.

ESP is right about the favorites. I still think CDH beats STA in sections. Stillwater and Hill is going to be a hell of a game if it happens.

And lastly, we should talk about our sleeper pick. Which Elliot has been whispering about all year. The Bemidji Lumberjacks. A team ready for greatness. You heard it here first.
elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by elliott70 »

Sparlimb wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 7:26 pm
green4 wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:35 pm If you look back a week, Spar actually moves WBL up a spot from 10 to 9 after losing to centennial
True, but when I do the weekly rankings, I update the records and try and re-rank from that. But I also play a game in my head of what have I seen. Benilde played an even game against Grand Rapids, so that didn't inspire confidence. Either does WBL's loss and it looks like they'll get Stillwater in the section semi's and be done. But as I always say, the best part of high school hockey is none of it matters. You can be a 6 seed (see Buffalo last year) and play a 7 seed in the section semis and then have your shot to go to state. Everyone gets put back in the bucket, so to speak.

Here's what I've seen so far. In the 40 or so games I've watched, Moorhead looks the best. That will be put on the line this week however. Hill-Murray isn't quite as good, but if they beat Moorhead and then make state, they are likely the #1 seed. Cretin looks like they could beat anyone on the right day, or possibly just take 3 majors in 4 minutes just cause they felt like belting the other team in the head.

As much as I respect Rapids, I would like to see Rock Ridge make it because with the metro teams that are in 7AA, it will be hard for them to find another year. But I think Rapids can beat anyone any night too. What's interesting is both Holy Angels and BSM can beat Wayzata and Edina on semi-final night, but just like last year, I bet it doesn't happen. This coming from a guy who was the loudest Chris Student fan one year at Mariucci when they upset the hornets in OT. Ask ChrisK, he was there with me.

ESP is right about the favorites. I still think CDH beats STA in sections. Stillwater and Hill is going to be a hell of a game if it happens.

And lastly, we should talk about our sleeper pick. Which Elliot has been whispering about all year. The Bemidji Lumberjacks. A team ready for greatness. You heard it here first.
Moorhead hockey people have told me that after game 1 with Wayzata, Bemidji has given them the biggest challenge.
Bemidji’s biggest problem has been injuries and illness. When at full strength they are pretty good.
But Moorhead is pretty good too.
East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

I thought a Hill Stillwater final may feel a lot like the Rogers game felt last night. Only ten times more tension with a section title on the line. I wouldn't shed a tear to see WB upset the Ponies, which really says something about Stillwater, given how WB has given us so many fits themselves in the final.
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ryguyMN
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by ryguyMN »

I like Stillwater at #3, bold selection. I definitely think they are trending up with Conway back.

STA and WBL seem to be trending down. Edina seems to be just treading water.
Ryan
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ryguyMN
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by ryguyMN »

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:57 pm How the pairings shake out will be very interesting. Section 1, 2, and 7 look to be unseeded, and the higher seeds won't get screwed drawing any of those. Edina losing to anyone in sections would give #4 a softer draw; it's a similar story for STA. I'd much rather draw STA than Cre-TINE. It seems highly likely that there will be 4 solid contenders on Friday night, any of which will be capable of winning two games.
Seeding is now 1-8, starting this season.
Ryan
I like my games and takes juicy
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

ryguyMN wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:57 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:57 pm How the pairings shake out will be very interesting. Section 1, 2, and 7 look to be unseeded, and the higher seeds won't get screwed drawing any of those. Edina losing to anyone in sections would give #4 a softer draw; it's a similar story for STA. I'd much rather draw STA than Cre-TINE. It seems highly likely that there will be 4 solid contenders on Friday night, any of which will be capable of winning two games.
Seeding is now 1-8, starting this season.
You are correct, sir! But I stand by my analysis, that the bottom three seeds will be very comparable.
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ryguyMN
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by ryguyMN »

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 12:30 pm
ryguyMN wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:57 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:57 pm How the pairings shake out will be very interesting. Section 1, 2, and 7 look to be unseeded, and the higher seeds won't get screwed drawing any of those. Edina losing to anyone in sections would give #4 a softer draw; it's a similar story for STA. I'd much rather draw STA than Cre-TINE. It seems highly likely that there will be 4 solid contenders on Friday night, any of which will be capable of winning two games.
Seeding is now 1-8, starting this season.
You are correct, sir! But I stand by my analysis, that the bottom three seeds will be very comparable.
I agree with your analysis; the Friday night games should be good.
Ryan
I like my games and takes juicy
karl(east)
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by karl(east) »

FYI: updated the Stillwater write-up to acknowledge their forfeits, but it doesn't change my ranking of them.

As for the Benilde/Shakopee question, I'm just riding Shakopee momentum and have been a little skeptical on what Benilde's ceiling is this season. From a strict quality wins standpoint I understand the argument, though. This is the time of year when I start to go a bit more by feel, for good or ill.
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by BlueLineSpecial »

karl(east) wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 5:00 pm FYI: updated the Stillwater write-up to acknowledge their forfeits, but it doesn't change my ranking of them.

As for the Benilde/Shakopee question, I'm just riding Shakopee momentum and have been a little skeptical on what Benilde's ceiling is this season. From a strict quality wins standpoint I understand the argument, though. This is the time of year when I start to go a bit more by feel, for good or ill.
George Berkeley wrote that the objects of sense exist only when they are perceived; the trees therefore are in the garden no longer than while there is somebody to perceive them

To this end, Stillwater is 19-4 because somebody was there to witness it. There is no 17-6 except in our imagination :idea:
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/9/25

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy »

ryguyMN wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 11:16 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 12:30 pm
ryguyMN wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:57 am

Seeding is now 1-8, starting this season.
You are correct, sir! But I stand by my analysis, that the bottom three seeds will be very comparable.
I agree with your analysis; the Friday night games should be good.
I have serious doubts about your judgment.
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