A State Seeding???

[ClassAGuy]

What we got now for seeds for Class A??

1A- Northfield
2A- Orono
3A- Luverne
4A- Mahtomedi
5A- St Cloud Cathedral
6A- Northern Lakes
7A- Hibbing
8A- East Grand Forks

[rainier2]

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. Orono
6. EGF
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

In every ranking I've seen, Hibbing was the highest ranked team to get to state, they had to beat the #2 and #4 teams to get there, and they beat the next highest ranked team, Cathedral, 6-3. Hibbing is an obvious #1 seed.

[lakescountrylife]

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. Orono
6. EGF
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

In every ranking I've seen, Hibbing was the highest ranked team to get to state, they had to beat the #2 and #4 teams to get there, and they beat the next highest ranked team, Cathedral, 6-3. Hibbing is an obvious #1 seed.

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

[TTpuckster]

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. Orono
6. EGF
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

In every ranking I've seen, Hibbing was the highest ranked team to get to state, they had to beat the #2 and #4 teams to get there, and they beat the next highest ranked team, Cathedral, 6-3. Hibbing is an obvious #1 seed.

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

Yup. Their record is only 13-13-2. Not too impressive, even though they played a tough schedule.

[rainier2]

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. Orono
6. EGF
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

In every ranking I've seen, Hibbing was the highest ranked team to get to state, they had to beat the #2 and #4 teams to get there, and they beat the next highest ranked team, Cathedral, 6-3. Hibbing is an obvious #1 seed.

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

The 2-5 seeds were all ranked ahead of EGF and they all won their last game also. EGF got crushed by Cathedral 11-5, Northfield tied Cathedral, Orono only lost to Cathedral 4-2, and Northern Lakes split with Cathedral.

[lakescountrylife]

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. Orono
6. EGF
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

In every ranking I've seen, Hibbing was the highest ranked team to get to state, they had to beat the #2 and #4 teams to get there, and they beat the next highest ranked team, Cathedral, 6-3. Hibbing is an obvious #1 seed.

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

Yup. Their record is only 13-13-2. Not too impressive, even though they played a tough schedule.

Record is not impressive? Seems like you are the kind of person that would have put Red Lake Falls over EGF based on record.

Punishing class A teams for playing a tougher schedule?

Plus, didn't Orono blow out Hibbing?

tt…did St Thomas Academy travel to any other class A team outside the metro? EGF from StTA is a five hour drive. An eternity for metro teams

[rainier2]

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

Yup. Their record is only 13-13-2. Not too impressive, even though they played a tough schedule.

Record is not impressive? Seems like you are the kind of person that would have put Red Lake Falls over EGF based on record.

Punishing class A teams for playing a tougher schedule?

Plus, didn't Orono blow out Hibbing?

tt…did St Thomas Academy travel to any other class A team outside the metro? EGF from StTA is a five hour drive. An eternity for metro teams

What do you think the seeds should be?

[elliott70]

Based on odds of winning I would go
1A- Northfield. 5
2A- Orono. 7
3A- Luverne 8
4A- Mahtomedi 6
5A- St Cloud Cathedral 1
6A- Northern Lakes 3
7A- Hibbing. 2
8A- East Grand Forks. 4


But a nice group with no clear cut favorite and anything could happen.
Looking forward to Friday afternoon March 7.

[bardown27]

My guess for class A seedlings based on current ranking and H2H vs the tournament field:

1. Hibbing
2. Cathedral
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. EGF
6. Mahtomedi
7. Orono
8. Luverne

[HSPuckFan]

How much do the coaches factor in H2H and strength of schedule?I think if it's a factor at all Mahtomedi should be ahead of Orono but can totally understand if they're not.I think if Orono and Mahtomedi played a 7 game series Orono probably wins it but they don't and the one game they did play Mahtomedi won.

[TTpuckster]

EGF just beat the #1 team in class A and you put them at #6?

Yup. Their record is only 13-13-2. Not too impressive, even though they played a tough schedule.

Record is not impressive? Seems like you are the kind of person that would have put Red Lake Falls over EGF based on record.

Punishing class A teams for playing a tougher schedule?

Plus, didn't Orono blow out Hibbing?

tt…did St Thomas Academy travel to any other class A team outside the metro? EGF from StTA is a five hour drive. An eternity for metro teams

Yea. And don’t forget that Wayzata also went up there.
I am from EGF and played my HS hockey there, (or some facsimile thereof of hockey). I am Green Wave through and through. Ask my wife. Or better yet, ask Elliott, . I’m just saying that, if I am a person doing the seeding, and looking at their body of work, I, personally could not put them very high.
That being said, this year, this state tournament is wide open. Or as slappy would have put it many years ago, “It’s up for grabs”, and everybody knows it.

[ClassAGuy]

How much do the coaches factor in H2H and strength of schedule?I think if it's a factor at all Mahtomedi should be ahead of Orono but can totally understand if they're not.I think if Orono and Mahtomedi played a 7 game series Orono probably wins it but they don't and the one game they did play Mahtomedi won.

One thing to factor for H2H is that yes Mahtomedi beat Orono but other H2H with Tourney teams favor Spartans-
Orono beat Hibbing H2H and Hibbing Beat Mahtomedi H2H
Orono tied EGF H2H and EGF Beat Mahtomedi H2H
Orono & Mahtomedi both lost to SCC
Both Orono and Mahtomedi play a very good SOS

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out
My best guess... (#1, #2 & #8 feels like locks)
1- Hibbing
2- SCC
3- Northfield
4- EGF
5- Northern Lakes
6- Orono
7- Mahtomedi
8- Luverne

[TTpuckster]

Yup, “Up for grabs”

And everybody knows it.

[stateofhawkey]

It's a wonderful, chaotic mess and I'm here for it. The parity at the tourney will be awesome to see. I think long gone are the days of 12-0 quarterfinal matchups. I could see the seeding going a lot of ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just end up going by the rankings.

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. EGF
6. Orono
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

It also wouldn't shock me to see SCC get the 1-seed, or EGF be as high as 3 or 4, since they knocked off Warroad. It'll be fun to see!

[rainier2]

It's a wonderful, chaotic mess and I'm here for it. The parity at the tourney will be awesome to see. I think long gone are the days of 12-0 quarterfinal matchups. I could see the seeding going a lot of ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just end up going by the rankings.

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. EGF
6. Orono
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

It also wouldn't shock me to see SCC get the 1-seed, or EGF be as high as 3 or 4, since they knocked off Warroad. It'll be fun to see!

I'd be shocked if SCC got the 1-seed over Hibbing. Can anyone make a convincing case for this? Here's what I see using Class A Guy's most recent rankings:

H2H: Hibbing wins 6-3
Overall record: Hibbing 19-9, SCC 18-8-2
Common opponents: both teams are 9-5
Vs all Class A opponents: 14-3 Hibbing, 15-5-2 SCC
Vs top Class A opponents (roughly top ten): 6-3 Hibbing, 7-4-2 SCC

Hibbing, Hermantown, and Cloquet were all in the top 5 almost the entire season, with Cloquet and Hermantown spending time at #1. Vs these three teams, SCC was 0-3, getting outscored 17-3; Hibbing went 4-2 vs SCC, Cloquet, and Hermantown.

The main argument I've seen for SCC being the 1-seed is that they are the "hottest team" right now. Is this true? Let's take a look:

SCC finished season on an 11-2 run, with close losses to Holy Family and Northern Lakes. Hibbing beat Northern Lakes. SCC had wins vs #6 Monticello x2, #10 Northern Lakes, #11 Little Falls x2, #13 EGF, #15 Mahtomedi, and #20 Detroit Lakes.

Hibbing finished season on a 9-2 run, with close losses to Eden Prairie and Rock Ridge, and wins vs #2 Hermantown, #4 Cloquet x 2, #14 Chisago Lakes, and #20 Detroit Lakes. Hibbing did not lose to any team SCC beat during their 11-2 run, going 5-0 vs those teams.

To me, running up the score vs Little Falls and Monticello in the playoffs isn't enough to overcome a 6-3 H2H loss and a 0-3-1 record vs top 5 teams while Hibbing went 4-2 vs top 5 teams.

[elliott70]

I hope Hibbing and East Grand Forks are in opposite brackets.
Not likely but would make me happy.

[east hockey]

I hope Hibbing and East Grand Forks are in opposite brackets.
Not likely but would make me happy.

If EGF is seeded 6th as some think, they will be assuming that Hibbing is #1

Lee

[elliott70]

I hope Hibbing and East Grand Forks are in opposite brackets.
Not likely but would make me happy.

If EGF is seeded 6th as some think, they will be assuming that Hibbing is #1

Lee

That works.
And hoping they both win their Qfinal games.

[BobSaget]

It's a wonderful, chaotic mess and I'm here for it. The parity at the tourney will be awesome to see. I think long gone are the days of 12-0 quarterfinal matchups. I could see the seeding going a lot of ways, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just end up going by the rankings.

1. Hibbing
2. SCC
3. Northfield
4. Northern Lakes
5. EGF
6. Orono
7. Mahtomedi
8. Luverne

It also wouldn't shock me to see SCC get the 1-seed, or EGF be as high as 3 or 4, since they knocked off Warroad. It'll be fun to see!

I'd be shocked if SCC got the 1-seed over Hibbing. Can anyone make a convincing case for this? Here's what I see using Class A Guy's most recent rankings:

H2H: Hibbing wins 6-3
Overall record: Hibbing 19-9, SCC 18-8-2
Common opponents: both teams are 9-5
Vs all Class A opponents: 14-3 Hibbing, 15-5-2 SCC
Vs top Class A opponents (roughly top ten): 6-3 Hibbing, 7-4-2 SCC

Hibbing, Hermantown, and Cloquet were all in the top 5 almost the entire season, with Cloquet and Hermantown spending time at #1. Vs these three teams, SCC was 0-3, getting outscored 17-3; Hibbing went 4-2 vs SCC, Cloquet, and Hermantown.

The main argument I've seen for SCC being the 1-seed is that they are the "hottest team" right now. Is this true? Let's take a look:

SCC finished season on an 11-2 run, with close losses to Holy Family and Northern Lakes. Hibbing beat Northern Lakes. SCC had wins vs #6 Monticello x2, #10 Northern Lakes, #11 Little Falls x2, #13 EGF, #15 Mahtomedi, and #20 Detroit Lakes.

Hibbing finished season on a 9-2 run, with close losses to Eden Prairie and Rock Ridge, and wins vs #2 Hermantown, #4 Cloquet x 2, #14 Chisago Lakes, and #20 Detroit Lakes. Hibbing did not lose to any team SCC beat during their 11-2 run, going 5-0 vs those teams.

To me, running up the score vs Little Falls and Monticello in the playoffs isn't enough to overcome a 6-3 H2H loss and a 0-3-1 record vs top 5 teams while Hibbing went 4-2 vs top 5 teams.

Here’s one way I could see the top seed going to Cathedral…

The coaches decide to throw out the regular season results because they are so chaotic and instead vote based on who they think is the best team heading in the tournament.

I don’t see that happening, but that’d be the reason it would happen, IMO. With coaches voting there is always the potential for leaving logic behind.

As a disclaimer, I’m not even close to pretending that Cathedral is the best heading in…just playing Devil’s advocate.

[elliott70]

odds are
Wednesday
11 am
Mahtomedi #7 vs St Cloud Cathedral #2
1 pm
Orono #6 vs Northfield #3
6 pm
Luverne #8 vs Hibbing #1
8pm
East Grand Forks #5 vs Northern Lakes #4

[Mite-dad]

I would find it hard not to put HIbbing at 1. They have the toughest section, and the head to head victory over SCC. And I hope they win it all! But I would not be surprised to see SCC repeat. They are peaking at the right time and have a very tournament experienced team. They will be a tough out I think.

[The51]

FWIW, here is how Pagestat would seed them

1. Hibbing
2. Orono
3. St. Cloud Cathedral
4. Northfield
5. East Grand Forks
6. Mahtomedi
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

I like using the metrics they do for seeding sections but I would probably prefer using something like pagestat to seed state.
So many uneven schedules etc and head to heads from long ago, just use something that encapsulates the entire season as best as possible...

[rainier2]

I would find it hard not to put HIbbing at 1. They have the toughest section, and the head to head victory over SCC. And I hope they win it all! But I would not be surprised to see SCC repeat. They are peaking at the right time and have a very tournament experienced team. They will be a tough out I think.

Agreed. Although Hibbing should get the #1 seed, SCC's top line is outstanding and really humming right now. I like Hibbing's overall depth, but I think EGF also has the horses to wear teams down. The only team that would surprise me if they won it all would be Luverne, but even they played Cloquet fairly tough in a 4-1 loss where CEC only had a 34-24 shot advantage. No team in the tournament can take any opponent lightly and expect to win, unlike past years where there were several QF blowouts.

[east hockey]

FWIW, here is how Pagestat would seed them

1. Hibbing
2. Orono
3. St. Cloud Cathedral
4. Northfield
5. East Grand Forks
6. Mahtomedi
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

I like using the metrics they do for seeding sections but I would probably prefer using something like pagestat to seed state.
So many uneven schedules etc and head to heads from long ago, just use something that encapsulates the entire season as best as possible...

I reran PageStat (the #'s you show have the seedings as they were prior to the start of Sections), through last night's games:

1. Hibbing
2. St Cloud Cathedral
3. Orono
4. Northfield
5. Mahtomedi
6. East Grand Forks
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

Tonight's final two section games shouldn't move the needle--I'll have the pre-state PageStat ratings posted to my website some time tomorrow

Lee

[rainier2]

FWIW, here is how Pagestat would seed them

1. Hibbing
2. Orono
3. St. Cloud Cathedral
4. Northfield
5. East Grand Forks
6. Mahtomedi
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

I like using the metrics they do for seeding sections but I would probably prefer using something like pagestat to seed state.
So many uneven schedules etc and head to heads from long ago, just use something that encapsulates the entire season as best as possible...

I reran PageStat (the #'s you show have the seedings as they were prior to the start of Sections), through last night's games:

1. Hibbing
2. St Cloud Cathedral
3. Orono
4. Northfield
5. Mahtomedi
6. East Grand Forks
7. Northern Lakes
8. Luverne

Tonight's final two section games shouldn't move the needle--I'll have the pre-state PageStat ratings posted to my website some time tomorrow

Lee

Interesting to see EGF drop a spot despite the Warroad win. I suppose the Cathedral pastings of their playoff foes boosted them up a spot.