Odds against winning 2025 AA Boys state championship

[O-townClown]

5:2 Moorhead
4:1 Stillwater
6:1 St. Thomas
6:1 Shakopee
7:1 Edina
10:1 Rogers
50:1 Lakeville South
50:1 Andover

[grindiangrad-80]

I’m liking Andover with those odds.

[yesiplayedhockey]

Can someone smarter than me come up with these numbers

For each town playing in the state, list the number of kids that moved into their program after Bantams

For the private schools, list the numbers of kids that played for another high school team before transferring to said private school

It would be interesting to see how many kids are still playing the "transfer" portal game to their advantage while coaches, AD's and the USHSL sit on their hands

HOPEFULLY the numbers are going down

[StanleyCup55]

Can someone smarter than me come up with these numbers

For each town playing in the state, list the number of kids that moved into their program after Bantams

For the private schools, list the numbers of kids that played for another high school team before transferring to said private school

It would be interesting to see how many kids are still playing the "transfer" portal game to their advantage while coaches, AD's and the USHSL sit on their hands

HOPEFULLY the numbers are going down

Stillwater
#1 - G - Sr - Cal Conway - Played youth hockey at Andover. Played sophomore and junior year of high school at Andover then transferred to Stillwater for this year.

Andover
#19 - Forward - Freshman - Jack Rykkeli
Played bantam AA at Anoka and transferred to Andover for his sophomore year.
*Camden Langfield played for Little Caesars in Michigan but played a year of Bantam AA at Andover. Not sure if his story of where he’s actually from.

Shakopee
#31 - Goalie - Jr - Owen Lunneborg
Grew up in Bloomington and played mostly tier 1 midget hockey. Enrolled at Shakopee this year for his senior season. This is his first year in the MSHSL.

#8 - Forward - Jr - Tristan Wassengeso
#9 - Forward - Sr - Peyton Chase
Both played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan. #8 played for Chaska HS last year. #9 played for Chaska HS two years ago.

#3 - Defense - Jr - Jack Kultgen
Played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan but has played all of his HS at Shakopee.

#28 - Forward - Sr - Ben Box
Played bantam AA at Eden Prairie. Played three years at Totino Grace then transferred to Shakopee this year.

#40 - Defense - Jr - Jaxon Johnson
Played bantam AA for Rochester. Went to Northstar Christian Academy in Alexandria last year.

#14 - Forward - Jr - Cody Sawyer
Grew up in Colorado and played AAA in CO. Played for Shakopee HS last year.


Lakeville South
#22 - Forward - Sr - Brayden Olsen
Played at Northfield HS in 2021-22 and in 2022-23. At South HS last year and this year.
#11 - Forward - Soph - Colby Olsen
Played one year of bantam at Northfield then his second year of bantam at Lakeville South.


Moorhead
Not sure on them. Far as I know all homegrown team?

Edina
All are Edina products

Rogers
#25 - Defense - Sr - Jackson Smithknecht
Played St. Michael-Albertville youth hockey and STMA HS up until last year. Transferred to Rogers for his senior year.

#5 - Defense - Sr - Brady Sorrentino
Played bantams at Osseo-Maple Grove. Sophomore year at Holy Family then transferred to Rogers for Jr and Sr year.

St Thomas Academy
#4 - Forward - Sr - Jackson Rudh
Played youth hockey at Cottage Grove and played his Fresh, Soph and Jr years at Park. Transferred to STA this year.

Most of these kids played youth at West St Paul but everyone else on this team has played their entire HS careers at STA.

[SpreadOut!]

So I assume all these kids who played for other high school teams last season “moved” to meet eligibility requirements to play this season with new high schools?

[WarmUpTheBus]

Can someone smarter than me come up with these numbers

For each town playing in the state, list the number of kids that moved into their program after Bantams

For the private schools, list the numbers of kids that played for another high school team before transferring to said private school

It would be interesting to see how many kids are still playing the "transfer" portal game to their advantage while coaches, AD's and the USHSL sit on their hands

HOPEFULLY the numbers are going down

Stillwater
#1 - G - Sr - Cal Conway - Played youth hockey at Andover. Played sophomore and junior year of high school at Andover then transferred to Stillwater for this year.

Andover
#19 - Forward - Freshman - Jack Rykkeli
Played bantam AA at Anoka and transferred to Andover for his sophomore year.
*Camden Langfield played for Little Caesars in Michigan but played a year of Bantam AA at Andover. Not sure if his story of where he’s actually from.

Shakopee
#31 - Goalie - Jr - Owen Lunneborg
Grew up in Bloomington and played mostly tier 1 midget hockey. Enrolled at Shakopee this year for his senior season. This is his first year in the MSHSL.

#8 - Forward - Jr - Tristan Wassengeso
#9 - Forward - Sr - Peyton Chase
Both played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan. #8 played for Chaska HS last year. #9 played for Chaska HS two years ago.

#3 - Defense - Jr - Jack Kultgen
Played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan but has played all of his HS at Shakopee.

#28 - Forward - Sr - Ben Box
Played bantam AA at Eden Prairie. Played three years at Totino Grace then transferred to Shakopee this year.

#40 - Defense - Jr - Jaxon Johnson
Played bantam AA for Rochester. Went to Northstar Christian Academy in Alexandria last year.

#14 - Forward - Jr - Cody Sawyer
Grew up in Colorado and played AAA in CO. Played for Shakopee HS last year.


Lakeville South
#22 - Forward - Sr - Brayden Olsen
Played at Northfield HS in 2021-22 and in 2022-23. At South HS last year and this year.
#11 - Forward - Soph - Colby Olsen
Played one year of bantam at Northfield then his second year of bantam at Lakeville South.


Moorhead
Not sure on them. Far as I know all homegrown team?

Edina
All are Edina products

Rogers
#25 - Defense - Sr - Jackson Smithknecht
Played St. Michael-Albertville youth hockey and STMA HS up until last year. Transferred to Rogers for his senior year.

#5 - Defense - Sr - Brady Sorrentino
Played bantams at Osseo-Maple Grove. Sophomore year at Holy Family then transferred to Rogers for Jr and Sr year.

St Thomas Academy
#4 - Forward - Sr - Jackson Rudh
Played youth hockey at Cottage Grove and played his Fresh, Soph and Jr years at Park. Transferred to STA this year.

Most of these kids played youth at West St Paul but everyone else on this team has played their entire HS careers at STA.

Jackson Smithknect has played for Roger’s the last 3 seasons so he didn’t transfer for just his senior year

[skiumah]

Mom/Dad, I'd like to transfer to Edina next year...said no (Minnesota raised) kid ever.

At least a kid from out of state wasn't taught to hate Edina. Maybe Edina could pick up transfers that way.

[yesiplayedhockey]

Thanks

My guess is some kids did it legally and some just skirted the rule that MSHSL league has no desire to enforce.

I think if today you went to the "new" addresses of some of these kids, their "new" house's driveway will not be plowed

Go to their former address, not only is the driveway plowed but you will be able to follow the tire tracks all the way to the X.

[O-townClown]

#8 - Forward - Jr - Tristan Wassengeso
#8 played for Chaska HS last year.

Wow, impressive work compiling that list!

Minor point, but for accuracy Tristan Wassengeso played for a Sioux Falls Power midget team last season. The prior year he was a freshman on Chaska's Varsity and even played games against his older brother Colton who was then a junior for the Storm.

[GoldenBear]

Thanks

My guess is some kids did it legally and some just skirted the rule that MSHSL league has no desire to enforce.

I think if today you went to the "new" addresses of some of these kids, their "new" house's driveway will not be plowed

Go to their former address, not only is the driveway plowed but you will be able to follow the tire tracks all the way to the X.

Funny! probably some truth too. GB

[bardown27]

Can someone smarter than me come up with these numbers

For each town playing in the state, list the number of kids that moved into their program after Bantams

For the private schools, list the numbers of kids that played for another high school team before transferring to said private school

It would be interesting to see how many kids are still playing the "transfer" portal game to their advantage while coaches, AD's and the USHSL sit on their hands

HOPEFULLY the numbers are going down

Stillwater
#1 - G - Sr - Cal Conway - Played youth hockey at Andover. Played sophomore and junior year of high school at Andover then transferred to Stillwater for this year.

Andover
#19 - Forward - Freshman - Jack Rykkeli
Played bantam AA at Anoka and transferred to Andover for his sophomore year.
*Camden Langfield played for Little Caesars in Michigan but played a year of Bantam AA at Andover. Not sure if his story of where he’s actually from.

Shakopee
#31 - Goalie - Jr - Owen Lunneborg
Grew up in Bloomington and played mostly tier 1 midget hockey. Enrolled at Shakopee this year for his senior season. This is his first year in the MSHSL.

#8 - Forward - Jr - Tristan Wassengeso
#9 - Forward - Sr - Peyton Chase
Both played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan. #8 played for Chaska HS last year. #9 played for Chaska HS two years ago.

#3 - Defense - Jr - Jack Kultgen
Played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan but has played all of his HS at Shakopee.

#28 - Forward - Sr - Ben Box
Played bantam AA at Eden Prairie. Played three years at Totino Grace then transferred to Shakopee this year.

#40 - Defense - Jr - Jaxon Johnson
Played bantam AA for Rochester. Went to Northstar Christian Academy in Alexandria last year.

#14 - Forward - Jr - Cody Sawyer
Grew up in Colorado and played AAA in CO. Played for Shakopee HS last year.


Lakeville South
#22 - Forward - Sr - Brayden Olsen
Played at Northfield HS in 2021-22 and in 2022-23. At South HS last year and this year.
#11 - Forward - Soph - Colby Olsen
Played one year of bantam at Northfield then his second year of bantam at Lakeville South.


Moorhead
Not sure on them. Far as I know all homegrown team?

Edina
All are Edina products

Rogers
#25 - Defense - Sr - Jackson Smithknecht
Played St. Michael-Albertville youth hockey and STMA HS up until last year. Transferred to Rogers for his senior year.

#5 - Defense - Sr - Brady Sorrentino
Played bantams at Osseo-Maple Grove. Sophomore year at Holy Family then transferred to Rogers for Jr and Sr year.

St Thomas Academy
#4 - Forward - Sr - Jackson Rudh
Played youth hockey at Cottage Grove and played his Fresh, Soph and Jr years at Park. Transferred to STA this year.

Most of these kids played youth at West St Paul but everyone else on this team has played their entire HS careers at STA.

A few to add to this list:

Lakeville South:
Carson Hauger - played soph year for Hopkins
Oscar Balkins - played last year for Windy City U16

Shakopee:
Landon Huh - played bantams for Chaska/Chan 22/23 season
Cooper Siegert - played bantams for Faribault, I believe the 21/22 season

Rogers:
Jayden Kurtz - played first year of bantams for Blaine

Andover:
Chase Foy - played first year of bantams for GB Jr Gamblers
Brody Peterson - played first year of bantams at Andover, then played for windy City last year
Will Thackeray - played Duluth East Bantam AA last year

[CrimsonCakeEater]

Can someone smarter than me come up with these numbers

For each town playing in the state, list the number of kids that moved into their program after Bantams

For the private schools, list the numbers of kids that played for another high school team before transferring to said private school

It would be interesting to see how many kids are still playing the "transfer" portal game to their advantage while coaches, AD's and the USHSL sit on their hands

HOPEFULLY the numbers are going down

Stillwater
#1 - G - Sr - Cal Conway - Played youth hockey at Andover. Played sophomore and junior year of high school at Andover then transferred to Stillwater for this year.

Andover
#19 - Forward - Freshman - Jack Rykkeli
Played bantam AA at Anoka and transferred to Andover for his sophomore year.
*Camden Langfield played for Little Caesars in Michigan but played a year of Bantam AA at Andover. Not sure if his story of where he’s actually from.

Shakopee
#31 - Goalie - Jr - Owen Lunneborg
Grew up in Bloomington and played mostly tier 1 midget hockey. Enrolled at Shakopee this year for his senior season. This is his first year in the MSHSL.

#8 - Forward - Jr - Tristan Wassengeso
#9 - Forward - Sr - Peyton Chase
Both played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan. #8 played for Chaska HS last year. #9 played for Chaska HS two years ago.

#3 - Defense - Jr - Jack Kultgen
Played bantam AA at Chaska/Chan but has played all of his HS at Shakopee.

#28 - Forward - Sr - Ben Box
Played bantam AA at Eden Prairie. Played three years at Totino Grace then transferred to Shakopee this year.

#40 - Defense - Jr - Jaxon Johnson
Played bantam AA for Rochester. Went to Northstar Christian Academy in Alexandria last year.

#14 - Forward - Jr - Cody Sawyer
Grew up in Colorado and played AAA in CO. Played for Shakopee HS last year.


Lakeville South
#22 - Forward - Sr - Brayden Olsen
Played at Northfield HS in 2021-22 and in 2022-23. At South HS last year and this year.
#11 - Forward - Soph - Colby Olsen
Played one year of bantam at Northfield then his second year of bantam at Lakeville South.


Moorhead
Not sure on them. Far as I know all homegrown team?

Edina
All are Edina products

Rogers
#25 - Defense - Sr - Jackson Smithknecht
Played St. Michael-Albertville youth hockey and STMA HS up until last year. Transferred to Rogers for his senior year.

#5 - Defense - Sr - Brady Sorrentino
Played bantams at Osseo-Maple Grove. Sophomore year at Holy Family then transferred to Rogers for Jr and Sr year.

St Thomas Academy
#4 - Forward - Sr - Jackson Rudh
Played youth hockey at Cottage Grove and played his Fresh, Soph and Jr years at Park. Transferred to STA this year.

Most of these kids played youth at West St Paul but everyone else on this team has played their entire HS careers at STA.

I always find the "Edina Recruits" whiners funny. Edina doesn't need to recruit, and in fact they hemorrhage talent to private schools like STA and BSM and Blake and Breck. In fact last year Michael Risteau transferred in from BSM and Giles stuck him on the third line, so I wonder if there's an active effort to dissuade high school transfers.

[Doc Holliday]

I always find the "Edina Recruits" whiners funny. Edina doesn't need to recruit, and in fact they hemorrhage talent to private schools like STA and BSM and Blake and Breck. In fact last year Michael Risteau transferred in from BSM and Giles stuck him on the third line, so I wonder if there's an active effort to dissuade high school transfers.

Not only STA/BSM/Blake & Breck, but former youth product Brooks Suter now suits up for the Moorhead Bantam AA.

I understand his dad lost his job in St. Paul so I get the whole job transfer thing, but that one may be on another level!

[SpreadOut!]

Thanks

My guess is some kids did it legally and some just skirted the rule that MSHSL league has no desire to enforce.

I think if today you went to the "new" addresses of some of these kids, their "new" house's driveway will not be plowed

Go to their former address, not only is the driveway plowed but you will be able to follow the tire tracks all the way to the X.

100% true. The question is why won’t the MSHSL enforce?

Additionally, as we all know this is happening everywhere, why did the MSHSL go after Cal Conway, who transferred from Andover to Stillwater I assume using the same “I got an address!!” method that others use but the MSHSL doesn’t go after? Did someone submit video of Conway at home in Andover on school nights or something? Is this what it takes?

[slacsap]

MSHSL has no interest in enforcing the transfer rule because of the potential legal action that would follow in most cases.

When they are put in a situation where they have to act, they do so like they did in the Conway case, declare a player ineligible for most of the regular season, but allow them to play in the post-season. Boy, that's a deterrent.

[SpreadOut!]

MSHSL has no interest in enforcing the transfer rule because of the potential legal action that would follow in most cases.

When they are put in a situation where they have to act, they do so like they did in the Conway case, declare a player ineligible for most of the regular season, but allow them to play in the post-season. Boy, that's a deterrent.

What legal action would deter them from enforcement? If a kid “has an address” but doesn’t actually live at said address and there is proof of it, that’s pretty clear cut. Are you saying parents with means would sue anyway and MSHSL doesn’t have the funds to fight? I gotta thing some day someone is gonna do like what happened on the case this year involving a state legislator who said he lived in Roseville (had an address but clearly didn’t live there) but actually lived in Little Canada. He had to give up his seat in legislature as a result. The tactics the complainants used to prove this guy didn’t actually live in Roseville could easily be replicated to prove a kid “with an address” doesn’t live where he says he does so he can play hockey for the high school where said address falls under.

[SpreadOut!]

MSHSL has no interest in enforcing the transfer rule because of the potential legal action that would follow in most cases.

When they are put in a situation where they have to act, they do so like they did in the Conway case, declare a player ineligible for most of the regular season, but allow them to play in the post-season. Boy, that's a deterrent.

What legal action would deter them from enforcement? If a kid “has an address” but doesn’t actually live at said address and there is proof of it, that’s pretty clear cut. Are you saying parents with means would sue anyway and MSHSL doesn’t have the funds to fight? I gotta thing some day someone is gonna do like what happened on the case this year involving a state legislator who said he lived in Roseville (had an address but clearly didn’t live there) but actually lived in Little Canada. He had to give up his seat in legislature as a result. The tactics the complainants used to prove this guy didn’t actually live in Roseville could easily be replicated to prove a kid “with an address” doesn’t live where he says he does so he can play hockey for the high school where said address falls under.

By the way, the same “we got an address” thing is starting to happen in youth hockey now, too. A couple of the top Peewee AA teams in Minnesota acquired “kids with new addresses” this year but everyone knows—and the parents even admit—their kids don’t live at those addresses.They still go to the same schools in other communities that they have all along. All that’s changed is they “got an address” in the youth association they now play for. We’re heading to “super teams” at all levels on youth hockey in Minnesota if something isn’t done. Pretty soon everyone other than a handful of teams will want to play Class A.

[elliott70]

The problem at the youth level is how do you police it?
A volunteer organization does not have the resources to check addresses of the thousands of kids playing. If there is a complaint it can be checked on but not a lot of complaints. I had 3 this year and none were even close to being valid complaints.

[SpreadOut!]

The problem at the youth level is how do you police it?
A volunteer organization does not have the resources to check addresses of the thousands of kids playing. If there is a complaint it can be checked on but not a lot of complaints. I had 3 this year and none were even close to being valid complaints.

Yeah, the policing at the youth level is certainly an issue. But what’s happening at the peewee AA level I referenced is more blatant. It involves coordination/recruiting between association coaches and AAA programs/businesses the association coaches and board members are involved in. There is some serious “there” there for anyone with authority willing to look under the hood.

[slacsap]

MSHSL has no interest in enforcing the transfer rule because of the potential legal action that would follow in most cases.

When they are put in a situation where they have to act, they do so like they did in the Conway case, declare a player ineligible for most of the regular season, but allow them to play in the post-season. Boy, that's a deterrent.

What legal action would deter them from enforcement? If a kid “has an address” but doesn’t actually live at said address and there is proof of it, that’s pretty clear cut. Are you saying parents with means would sue anyway and MSHSL doesn’t have the funds to fight? I gotta thing some day someone is gonna do like what happened on the case this year involving a state legislator who said he lived in Roseville (had an address but clearly didn’t live there) but actually lived in Little Canada. He had to give up his seat in legislature as a result. The tactics the complainants used to prove this guy didn’t actually live in Roseville could easily be replicated to prove a kid “with an address” doesn’t live where he says he does so he can play hockey for the high school where said address falls under.

The legal action would not necessarily come from the kid "having an address". It would be a challenge to the idea of a transfer student being ineligible. It would be the same legal challenge that caused college sports to change its transfer rules which has led to college athlets playing for two, sometimes three, different schools during their college careers. High school sports are moving in the same direction.

[SpreadOut!]

MSHSL has no interest in enforcing the transfer rule because of the potential legal action that would follow in most cases.

When they are put in a situation where they have to act, they do so like they did in the Conway case, declare a player ineligible for most of the regular season, but allow them to play in the post-season. Boy, that's a deterrent.

What legal action would deter them from enforcement? If a kid “has an address” but doesn’t actually live at said address and there is proof of it, that’s pretty clear cut. Are you saying parents with means would sue anyway and MSHSL doesn’t have the funds to fight? I gotta thing some day someone is gonna do like what happened on the case this year involving a state legislator who said he lived in Roseville (had an address but clearly didn’t live there) but actually lived in Little Canada. He had to give up his seat in legislature as a result. The tactics the complainants used to prove this guy didn’t actually live in Roseville could easily be replicated to prove a kid “with an address” doesn’t live where he says he does so he can play hockey for the high school where said address falls under.

The legal action would not necessarily come from the kid "having an address". It would be a challenge to the idea of a transfer student being ineligible. It would be the same legal challenge that caused college sports to change its transfer rules which has led to college athlets playing for two, sometimes three, different schools during their college careers. High school sports are moving in the same direction.

So, are you are saying the MSHSL is afraid to enforce transfer cases aggressively because they think if they do someone or some entity with deep pockets will eventually challenge the transfer eligibility requirements broadly—seeking a ruling that the eligibility requirements violate some law or rights and should be thrown out completely?

[O-townClown]

Interesting discussion pertinent to the thread subject assessing each team's chances of winning this year's state tournament.

[elliott70]

Interesting discussion pertinent to the thread subject assessing each team's chances of winning this year's state tournament.

You cannot win unless you recruit?…..?

[ryguyMN]

Rogers was left off the odds list. Did they get intimidated by Edina and forfeit?

Rogers: "We bow down to thee green, white, and gold. We shall concede our contest and journey back to the homeland."

[O-townClown]

Rogers was left off the odds list. Did they get intimidated by Edina and forfeit?

Rogers: "We bow down to thee green, white, and gold. We shall concede our contest and journey back to the homeland."

Thank you for catching that. I placed them at 10:1. An oversight or typo.

Anyone wondering why their odds are longer than Edina when I call their tilt a "cointoss game" can ask Chanhassen to explain.