KRACH SOS

hockeyhead · Post by **hockeyhead** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 1:46 pm

One flaw that I find in the Krach SOS is... There are 8 teams from the Lake conference in the top 16, and the top 4 teams are from the Lake. Isn't th Lake down from where it's been in past years. How can so many teams be so high on the SOS? Maybe someone can answer this... Just something to think about... I know ghshockey does a great job putting this together. Hockeyhead Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... keyhead</A> at: 1/19/06 2:03 pm

hubbaa · Post by **hubbaa** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 2:01 pm

because they have all played ep, which will skew the sos...

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 2:05 pm

Yep - and also how EP will never get too high in SOS as they can't paly themselves. This was something that MNHOCKEYGAL pointed out last year and it is true - this is a weighted sum/average essentially and so with one or two games against EP and weak other opponents you still have a strong SOS. Statistically there is a better way, but I just haven't taken the time to address this yet. SOS is a rough guide - plus... Some of those Lake Teams may actually have decent NC SOS??? I haven't looked... Lake is down, but on average it's a better conference than many others obviously.

sghfan · Post by **sghfan** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 2:40 pm

I had already figured out that only teams that play EP twice will end up on top of the SOS. But I must question the statement "the Lake is down". I don't think it is down compared to last year. Comparing the most current Krach rankings with those from the end of last season: EP, Burnsville, Chaska, Eagan, Apple Valley, and Rosemount are all ranked higher today than at the end of last season. Lakeville North is slightly below Lakeville last year; Lakeville South is a pretty good A school this year. Jefferson is slightly below last year. Eastview is down. Kennedy is way down (but not as low as Rosemount was last year). Okay, EP only went up from 3 to 1, but I have seen them twice and they sure look "up" to me. I think the Lake is better top to bottom than almost all the other conferences this year. The season isn't over yet so much could change. We should look at the end of the season.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 8:39 pm

I'm revamping this now using a different algorithm - we'll see if it's any better... Instead of using the raw rating values and the KRACH accepted algorithm, I'm likely just using an inverse ranking sum - more later... As to the Lake being "up" or "down" I'd say it's all relative. Meaning, when you compare this or last year to 2003-4 - nothing compares.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:20 pm

I like this better, and I think it makes more sense. It's been "normalized" - meaning same as before, but now doesn't punish the best for not being able to play themselves (EP), and also doesn't help the others for being able to play the very top team (EP) more than others... Neat part is that the SOS now is an average ranking of all opponents faced - meaning that if you take the ranks of all opponents for a team, add them up, divide by the number of games, you get the average rank of the opponents. RK TEAM SOS 1 Wayzata 23.850 2 Cloquet/Esko/Carlton 26.389 3 Edina 31.048 4 Hibbing 31.095 5 South St. Paul 32.600 6 Hill-Murray Pioneers 32.700 7 Roseville 32.944 8 Stillwater 33.550 9 Grand Rapids/Greenway 33.636 10 White Bear Lake 34.684 11 Benilde-St. Margarets 35.278 12 Blaine 35.889 13 Hopkins 36.350 14 Eden Prairie 36.500 15 Mounds View 36.737 16 Simley 36.850 17 Cretin-Derham Hall 38.000 18 Hastings 38.850 19 Warroad 38.947 20 Eastview 39.600 21 North St. Paul Polars 39.842 22 Woodbury 40.167 23 Park of Cottage Grove 40.500 24 Forest Lake 41.900 25 Burnsville 41.950 26 Anoka 43.750 27 Andover 43.789 28 Elk River 43.810 29 Henry Sibley 43.905 30 Academy of Holy Angels 44.900 31 Mahtomedi 45.150 32 Champlin Park 45.300 33 Centennial 45.684 34 Bloom. Jefferson 45.737 35 Eagan 45.900 36 Osseo 46.579 37 Park Center 47.333 38 Chaska 48.500 39 Lakev. North 49.143 40 Rob. Armstrong 49.300 41 Coon Rapids 49.350 42 Bloom. Kennedy 49.500 43 Chisago Lakes/Pine City 50.000 44 Maple Grove 50.400 45 Lakev. South 50.762 46 Blake 51.105 47 Roch. Mayo 52.333 48 Richfield 52.500 49 Duluth East 53.158 50 Apple Valley 53.200 51 Bemidji 53.200 52 Prior Lake 53.350 53 Roch. John Marshall/Century 53.471 54 Buffalo 54.118 55 Minnetonka 54.200 56 Moorhead 54.611 57 Roseau 55.000 58 Duluth Central/Denfeld 56.789 59 Totino-Grace 58.050 60 New Prague 58.053 61 St. Louis Park 58.300 62 St. Cld. Tech 58.650 63 Farmington 60.600 64 Albert Lea Tigers 63.412 65 Owatonna 64.000 66 St. Francis/North Branch 64.350 67 Irondale 64.600 68 St. Paul Blades 65.125 69 Rob. Cooper 65.450 70 Mankato West 66.895 71 Hutchinson 67.053 72 Brainerd 67.421 73 Winona Winhawks 68.083 74 Red Wing 69.222 75 St. Paul United 69.444 76 Thief River Falls 70.389 77 Breck 70.500 78 St. Cld. Icebreakers 71.350 79 Austin 71.353 80 Shakopee 72.053 81 Spring Lake Park/St. Anthony 72.150 82 Rosemount 72.200 83 Fergus Falls 72.556 84 Minneapolis Novas 73.111 85 Little Falls 73.368 86 River Lakes Stars 73.400 87 Proctor/Hermantown/Marshall 74.167 88 Mankato East 75.067 89 Faribault 75.200 90 Willmar 75.368 91 Detroit Lakes 75.750 92 International Falls 75.882 93 Silver Bay/Two Harbors 75.941 94 Northfield 76.500 95 Crookston 77.875 96 Rogers 79.100 97 Alexandria 79.286 98 Sartell/Sauk Rapids Stormn Sabres 79.300 99 Lake of the Woods 79.529 100 St. Agnes/St. Bernards/Concordia Academy 82.062 101 Tri-City 82.235 102 Princeton 82.941 103 Orono 83.105 104 North Wright County River Hawks 83.400 105 Eveleth 84.437 106 Cambridge-Isanti 84.450 107 Minnehaha Academy 84.778 108 Mound-Westonka 85.200 109 Moose Lake 85.467 110 New Ulm 85.556 111 East Grand Forks 86.571 112 St. Peter/Lesueur-Henderson 89.000 113 Park Rapids 89.714 114 Morris/Benson/Hancock 91.235 115 Waseca 95.278 116 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato 97.333 117 Fairmont 98.444 118 Long Prairie-Grey Eagle/Wadena-Deer Cr 102.294 119 Marshall 102.412 120 Babbitt-Embarrass 102.700 121 Luverne 104.647 122 Worthington 105.250 123 Tartan 107.455 124 Redwood Valley 107.750 125 Windom Area Eagles 110.353 126 Dodge County 111.267 Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... ckeyfan</A> at: 1/19/06 9:21 pm

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 10:16 pm

There's still one potential "flaw" in the SOS consideration, Not really a flaw per se, as much as a point of interpretation. When working with averages, we have to understnad that a team with an arbitraty SOS value could achieve one specific value a multitude of ways. For example, if a team played that top 10 teams of 100, and the bottom 10, they could get a SOS of ~ 50. (1+2+3+...+10)+(91+92+93+...+100)/20 = ~ 50 Similarly, a team could play teams 41-50 and 51-60 and get the same SOS... (41+42+43+...+50)+(51+52+53+...+60)/20 = ~50 Who played the tougher schedule? The team that played 1-10 & 91-100? Or the team that played 41-50 & 51-60??? As a side note, if both teams went 10-10, the team that played the top 10 would be ranked (Power Ranking Wise) 90 or so (Krach assumes they only beat 91-100), and the team that played 41-60 would be ranked 50 or so (Krach assumes only beat 51-60) .

hubbaa · Post by **hubbaa** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 5:20 am

ghs, the new sos is much more accurate. someone said the lake is up this year over last year. I think they are correct, but looking at last year they couldn't have gone anywhere but up. don't get me wrong it is a great league every year but last year was certainly a down year and i would say this year is a little better and next will be stronger still... wayzata league is up with edina and hopkins both fielding better teams..

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:25 am

I'd like to think so - Krach SOS wise I mean. Better now. I want to rerun the last two years too as the new approach would give a more acurate picture too for those years... <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  Agreed on the Lake. Eagan is up, Chaska up a bit?, BV appears stronger, EP is amazingly stronger. Others some minor changes, BK down unfortunately. Again, this is all relative though. Even with 04-05 down in Lake vs. an AMAZING 2-3 year run hitting its peak in 03-04, even the 04-05 Lake was a very strong conference in comparison to others. Similarly, I think we will see the past few years for the Classic Sub. be like the run in the Lake through 03-04, and this season 05-06 is likely the best across the board depth & quality that I've seen in the Classic Sub. My impression is that major losses of players are happening in the Classic Sub. this year and the conference will be rebuilding in 06-07 as the Lake did in 04-05. Again, all relative, and Classic Sub. will still be strong relative to other conferences, but down relative to its own outstanding past. Early prediction on Clasic Sub 06-07 - Sibley will win the conference, HM could be a close 2nd, and after that I have no idea. Could be that Richfield's youth/solid D & G and perseverence pays off, and Mahtomedi & NSP have some younger players that are strong (JV/Youth). Many programs will be rebuilding. NSP has the only top 10 U14 A team & IGH has the only top 10 U12 A team in the state in the conference last I checked - but there isn't always a correlation between top youth and eventual top HS teams due to many things including open enrollment/privates player development, etc. tartan returns to full V action next season as well in the Classic Sub. Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... ckeyfan</A> at: 1/20/06 10:27 am

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Feb 01, 2006 5:54 am

In having talked with more and more coaches recently I get the impression that this is a critical component for consideration when seeding A teams in sections. There appears to be great disparity in record value when looking at SOS of metro A/strong SOS vs. others at times. There appears to be some agreement that the first two determining factors are always head-to-head & common opponents (as they should be), but after that when looking at overall record alone some consideration of the SOS is needed in order to not reward many W weak SOS A teams and punish many L strong SOS A teams too heavily. Ideally all woudl play the same opponents and each other resulting in a conf. like situaton where you could look at record without SOS as then the SOS would be equal for all (having played the same opponents). Unfortunately this isn't the case however ever and some great SOS disparity exists as a result within a single section often. It does appear that more credibility is being given to the new SOS KRACH calculations and also I have heard that this current setup is far more intuitive than the old version. I guess it's easier to understand that there are 126 teams in the state and that the SOS value is the average rank of a team's opponents out of 126. Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... ckeyfan</A> at: 2/1/06 5:58 am

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Feb 08, 2006 6:09 pm

KRACH - Through Sections (but stats (W/L/T/GF/GA/AVG/Etc.) not updated): <a href="http://www.esportsdesk.com/leagues/news ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/R ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  I have posted the Regular Season Final KRACH here too... <a href="http://www.esportsdesk.com/leagues/news ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/R ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  I believe this site has pretty up-to-date results/record/GF/GA/etc. (not as much personal/boxscore stats) for the entire state for the season. If you notice an error, let me know! At the end of the regular season we'll try to post the overall state/class/conf./section leaders in GF, GA, Record, W/L/T, etc. as well. Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... ckeyfan</A> at: 2/12/06 3:19 pm

boblee · Post by **boblee** » Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:54 am

ghs---do you run esportsdesk too?

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Feb 09, 2006 12:06 pm

yes.

boblee · Post by **boblee** » Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:41 pm

I'll send you the updated GRG Lightning stuff as soon as I get a chance. (I'm talking regular season final stats)

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Feb 09, 2006 10:47 pm

great!

allthenet · Post by **allthenet** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 6:51 pm

So, SOS ranks Silver Bay 38th in "A" and 103rd overall. Doesn't this suggest Hibbing will beat them like, 20-0?? Guess we will see on monday. Sorry GHS, just supporting/defending SB and getting pumped up for the BIG game. Really appreciate all the work you do.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:22 pm

I think you make a good point. SOS looks at schedule strength. It isn't a ranking of a team, just their scheudle. It's very possible that a good team can have a bad SOS as a result. The KRACH ranks the teams based on their results. The SOS is just a rating of how strong their scheudle is. What I've found is that teams that win many games but have a weak SOS don't get ranked high by KRACH. This makes sense I think. Also, the opposite can be true. A team sthat plays an amazing SOS can win just a few games and still get a decent KRACH rating. I can point out specific examples of both theses cases.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Feb 10, 2006 10:27 pm

I should mention - Hibbing is a 214 Krach. Silver Bay is a 21. This means that Hibbing is a 214/21 - to - 1 favorite - or about a 10-to-1 favorite... My Simley squad sees similar odds tomorrow - Blake 181. Simley 10. => Blake is a 181/10 - to - 1 favorite - or about an 18-to-1 favorite...

allthenet · Post by **allthenet** » Sat Feb 11, 2006 12:03 pm

I hear ya GHS. Take care and good luck. Hope your team can keep it close.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:02 pm

Thanks - we'll need it!

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Sun Feb 12, 2006 3:19 pm

NOTE - this site keeps Playoff and Reg season Stats apart. You can view cumulative by looking at/clicking "Totals" in any stats page... Note - this is FINAL with all Section & State Stats... Rankings: <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/R ...  SOS: <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  Note - this is THROUGH SECTIONS heading into STATE, but stats (GP/W/L/T/GF/GA/AVG/Etc.) are only through end of season - will update final stats after state... Rankings: <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/R ...  SOS: <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  I have posted the Regular Season Final KRACH here too... <a href="http://www.esportsdesk.com/leagues/news ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/R ...  <a href="http://home.comcast.net/~simley/girls/S ...  I believe this site has pretty up-to-date results/record/GF/GA/etc. (not as much personal/boxscore stats) for the entire state for the season. If you notice an error, let me know! At the end of the regular season we'll try to post the overall state/class/conf./section leaders in GF, GA, Record, W/L/T, etc. as well. Edited by: <A HREF=http://p100.ezboard.com/bmnhs.showUserP ... ckeyfan</A> at: 2/26/06 12:39 am

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