Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Period studied - 1999 to 2007
Conclusion - I'm surprised how often top seeds advance to state.
45 times (out of 8 sections X 9 years = 72 outcomes) the #1 seed advanced to state.
18 of the remainder (27) it was the #2 seed in a section.
9 times it has been a lower seeded team representing the section at state. (Six times #3, twice #4, and just once the #5)
On average: 5 Number Ones, 2 Twos, and 1 other.
1 seeds: 5 avg. annually, +/- 2 (7! in 2004, just 3 in 2007) 2 seeds: 2 avg., +/- 2 (4 last year and zero in 2001) 3 seeds: <1, +/- 1 (2 in 2000) 4 seeds: just twice in last 9 years 5 seeds: just once Lower seeds: never (akin to a 16 beating a 1?)
Interesting years:
2004 - 7 Number Ones and a 2
2007 - 3-4-1 representation from seeds 1-2-3
Interesting sections:
Chalk: Sections 2, 4, and 8 were most likely to send the favorite with an average of 1.2 for the representative. Section 3 was just behind with 1.3.
Normal: Section 7's rep had an average seed of 1.8 and Sections 1 and 6 are at 1.8.
Most Wide Open: The representative from Section 4 averaged 2.2.
Based on this it is causing me to shorten the list of teams that could emerge from certain sections I considered wide open. We're deep enough into the season to accurately forecast seedings.
1 - Mayo and the Lakevilles
2 - Edina will be #1 seed, the 2/3/4 jumble of Jefferson, Burnsville and improving Holy Angels seems critical. (Only two 4 seeds have reached state in last 9 years.)
3 - Woodbury, Eastview, Rosemount
4 - Hill-Murray, Roseville, WBL
5 - Blaine and Centennial
6 - Minnetonka, Benilde, EP (sorry Hopkins)
7 - Duluth East, Grand Rapids, Anoka, Cloquet (see Section 2 for my opinion on importance of not being 4th see)
8 - Roseau with Moorhead having a snowball's chance to upset them in Final (interesting note - this section sent #1 seed for 7 years until the #2 upset #1 in Final past two seasons)
1) I'm gonna say Lakeville South
2) Edina
3) Wow, toughie - give me Woodbury
4) Hill-Murray
5) Centennial (yes, I know they lost to Blaine last night)
6) Benilde-St. Margaret's (I think Minnetonka loses a 3 games by Sections)
7) Anoka Roseau
Seedings for state -
1 - Roseau
2 - Edina
3 - Hill-Murray
4 - Benilde
Interesting observations. I would never have guessed section 1 had such a high rate of top seeds advancing. Prior to 1997 getting the top seed was the kiss of death, Owatonna had 3 in a row and never made it, Austin snuck through as a #6 seed once. After the Bloomington schools cried and were moved out of 1 in 1981 by my recolection only 4 times did the top seed advance; Burnsville three times - '84, '85, and '90 and John Marshall once in '88 or '89.
For those of you who think section 1 always has stunk there was atime from 1974 until about 1991 where it was one of if not the toughest in the state.
Big win for Jefferson today over Moorhead. And maybe Holy Angels hasn't turned the corner like I thought. (Or maybe Minnetonka is just unreal.)
Perhaps I'm asking too much to actually expect Moorhead to give the Rams a game in the Section 8 final.
Grand Rapids got smoked today by Anoka and, despite an earlier matchup, it looks like Cloquet isn't as good as Duluth East. Not much over .500, is it possible East wins 7 with ease?
Prior to 1997 getting the top seed was the kiss of death, Owatonna had 3 in a row and never made it, Austin snuck through as a #6 seed once
Goldy - When did Owatonna have the #1 seed three years in a row? I haven't been around as long as you, but I find that one hard to believe, as I have to think they never had the #1 when the Bloomington schools were in the section, Burnsville owned most of the 1980's, JM had it a few times, and Mayo had to have had it most of the 1990's since they won the Big Nine conference 9 straight years.
[quote="O-townClown"]Big win for Jefferson today over Moorhead. And maybe Holy Angels hasn't turned the corner like I thought. (Or maybe Minnetonka is just unreal.)
Perhaps I'm asking too much to actually expect Moorhead to give the Rams a game in the Section 8 final.
Grand Rapids got smoked today by Anoka and, despite an earlier matchup, it looks like Cloquet isn't as good as Duluth East. Not much over .500, is it possible East wins 7 with ease?[/quote]
Interesting question. East looked very good in a loss to Edina today and right now certainly looks a lot better than the others. But Anoka appears to have improved, Rapids always gives East a decent game, and no matter how much they seem to be free-falling, I'd NEVER take Cloquet for granted...such is the nature of the rivalry.
I certainly expect my Greyhounds to be visiting St. Paul in March, though.
In about 1992 the last of the metro teams were removed from section 1 for the time being and Mas Fukishima had some very very good teams in Owatonna. Also this was the start of the tier experiment. In 1993 Owatonna thought the jinx was off as both JM and Mayo were upset as the #2 and #3 seeds and took what really was a very good Austin team lightly and got beat in the finals. In '94 Mayo was 4 or 5 seed and upset Owatonna then JM. Fukishima left Owatonna soon after that and started the girls program. Ironically, Owatonna finally made it when they upset a very good Mayo team behing Adam Hannah in '98.
Owatonna had some very good teams in the late 80's and early 90's. Chad Kolander led their basketball team, their football teams were state finalists and their hockey teams weren't bad either.
Goldy - Thanks...I remember Fukishima....I just assumed Mayo was the #1 seed in 1992 (very nice team) and in 1995 - even better team, so I was curious about the three #1 seeds in a row. Maybe I am wrong about the 92 Mayo team.
1998 - Hanna was unreal in sections against Mayo AND JM. Too bad the Jaguars were not fooled in the 8-0 drubbing at state.