WCHA...only two teams in NCAA's this year?!

[Mitch Hawker]

It may be early to be thinking about this, but...

Due to generally poor non-conference play by WCHA teams this year, it is a possibility that only two teams from the WCHA could make the NCAA Tournament this year.

The PWR has not been released yet by USCHO, but this site has a look at how it would appear today.

http://rpihockey.net/misc.rank1.shtml

Currently only Denver, Minnesota, and UMD are in the top 14 spots likely to get a bid. UMD at #14 would lose their spot if any team not in the top 14 PWR were to win one of the big four conference tournaments.

It is possible this year that Air Force (currently #12 PWR) may be in the top 16 and win their conference tournament which could enable a major conference team ranked as low as #15 in the PWR to sneak in the tournament.

I can't remember the WCHA ever having only two teams in since the tournament expanded from 8 to 12 teams (let alone the current 16).

Is the league that weak this year?

[Observer85]

Yea, the WCHA appears to be really down this year. But it is a cycle and they have been up for so long.

Basically the last 2 weeks have been the conclusion of out of conference/cross over games for most college teams. And the WCHA did not fair so well.

Denver lost to BU in their own tournament. In game 1 they tied Holy Cross and advanced to the Championship game by winning a shoot out.

Wisconsin had to go to a shoot out to beat Lake Superior State in their tourney (goes in books as a tie though) and then lost 2 games this weekend to last place CCHA's Northern Michigan (at home).

Minnesota State goes out east and loses to Yale and Princeton, 2 ECAC teams.

North Dakota loses to Michigan State (ranked 9th out of 12 teams in CCHA), loses to last place Michigan Tech, then struggles to beat Bemidji this past weekend.

Duluth beats a Hockey East school (Lowell) and then loses to CCHA's top team, Notre Dame.

Minnesota wins easily over Brown but has to go into overtime to defeat Hockey East's Northeastern University.

St Cloud goes to Florida and loses to ECAC Cornell and ties Hockey East's Maine who was the 2nd to the worst team in Hockey East last year.

Even Colorado College has struggled with out of conference play. They have 3 ties out of 8 games (the other 5 games they were 4-1).

So the power shift, at least this year, appears to have moved to Hockey East and the CCHA. But don't be too concerned, last year Hockey East only had 2 teams qualify (Boston College and New Hampshire) while 6 WCHA teams made the field. BC ended up winning it all.

[Gopher Blog]

Probably a case of the all the pro departures finally catching up with most of the teams in the league. The WCHA was definitely the hardest hit by that in the last few years. I think they'll rebound fast in the next year or two though given what it has to offer (facilities, etc) compared to the other conferences.

The Gophers are in the best shape at the moment for the NCAAs. DU probably will be in but losing Bozak is going to hurt their chances in the 2nd half. The jury is out on UW, UMD, and CC in my book. They have all been been pretty inconsistent. The two losses to lowly Northern Michigan will probably really hurt UW down the road. Very bad losses.

[Mitch Hawker]

After Saturday night's games, MN remains #8, DU drops to #9, UMD drops to #17.


So if the NCAA tournament field were filled today only two WCHA teams would be in based on their regular season...of course, if someone other than DU or MN won the WCHA Final 5 then the WCHA would still have 3 teams in the 16 team field.


That would still be a far cry from the recent (2007?) six WCHA teams that made the 16 team field.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

That would still be a far cry from the recent (2007?) six WCHA teams that made the 16 team field.

Ahem...

But don't be too concerned, last year Hockey East only had 2 teams qualify (Boston College and New Hampshire) while 6 WCHA teams made the field. BC ended up winning it all.

[Mitch Hawker]

Oops, caught me skimming.

That would still be a far cry from the recent (2007?) six WCHA teams that made the 16 team field.

Ahem...

But don't be too concerned, last year Hockey East only had 2 teams qualify (Boston College and New Hampshire) while 6 WCHA teams made the field. BC ended up winning it all.

As a fan of any WCHA team other than UMtc and DU, I would be a bit concerned about getting into the tournament.....however, there is a lot of hockey yet to be played and everyone still has a chance of winning the conference tournament and getting in that way.

[Mitch Hawker]

If today were NCAA selection Sunday (3/22)

IN:
7t Denver (DU)
9t Minnesota (Mn)

Outside Looking in:
17 Colorado College (CC)
18 North Dakota (ND)
19 St. Cloud State (SC)
20t Wisconsin (Wi)
23t Minnesota-Duluth (MD)

[no97]

If today were NCAA selection Sunday (3/22)

IN:

4t Minnesota
8 Denver
13 Minnesota-Duluth (amazing what beating BSU can do for you, eh?)

Bubble:

16t North Dakota

OUT:

18 Wisconsin
24 St. Cloud State

[MNHockey75]

As of 1/19:

IN:
1. Cornell
2. Boston University
3. Notre Dame
4. Minnesota
5. Northeastern
6. Vermont
7. Michigan
8. Denver
9. Princeton
10. Ohio State
11. New Hampshire
12. Miami
13. Minnesota-Duluth
14. Boston College
- Air Force
- Niagara

OUT:
15. North Dakota
17. Wisconsin
19. Colorado College
24. St. Cloud State

[Mitch Hawker]

as of 1/25
IN:
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3 Cornell
4t Northeastern
4t Minnesota
6t Vermont
6t Michigan
8t Denver
8t Princeton
8t Miami

Bubble: Remember that only 10 PWR spots are guaranteed to get into the
tournament, up to six (likely no more than 4) of the following could get in depending on how many conference tournament winners are not in the top 16 (and whether any teams from the CHA or Atlantic Hockey are in the top 16)

11 Ohio State
12 New Hampshire
13 Minnesota-Duluth
14t Boston College
14t North Dakota


OUT:
16 Yale
17 Wisconsin
18 Air Force
19 St. Cloud State
20 Colorado College
21 Dartmouth
22 Alaska
23 St. Lawrence
24 Nebraska-Omaha
25 Maine

[Mitch Hawker]

Feb 3rd Update

IN:
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3t Vermont
3t Cornell
5t Miami
5t Michigan
7t Denver
7t Minnesota
7t Northeastern
10 Princeton

Favorites for CHA and Atlantic Hockey bids:
23 Air Force
NA Bemidji State

Bubble:
11 New Hampshire
12 Yale
13 Minnesota-Duluth
14 North Dakota

OUT:
15 Ohio State
16 Boston College
17 Wisconsin
18t St. Lawrence
18t St. Cloud State
20 Colorado College
21t Dartmouth
21t Alaska
24 Minnesota State
25 Nebraska-Omaha

[Mitch Hawker]

Feb 8 update

IN:
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3t Vermont
3t Michigan
5 Northeastern
6t Cornell
6t Princeton
8t Miami
8t Denver
10 Yale

Favorites for CHA and Atlantic Hockey bids:
18 Air Force
NA Bemidji State

Bubble:
11 Minnesota-Duluth
12 New Hampshire
13 Minnesota
14 Wisconsin

OUT:
15t Boston College
15t North Dakota
17 Ohio State
19 Colorado College
20 St. Lawrence
21 St. Cloud State
22 Alaska
23 Dartmouth
24 Minnesota State
25 Mass.-Lowell

[MNHockey75]

IN
1. Boston University
2. Michigan
3. Northeastern
4. Vermont
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Yale
8. Denver
9. Princeton
10. Cornell

BUBBLE
11. New Hampshire
12. North Dakota
13. Minnesota
14. Minnesota-Duluth

Auto-bid's (Best winning % in AHA & CHA)
--- RIT
--- Niagara

OUT (WCHA teams)
15. Wisconsin
19. St. Cloud State
21. Colorado College
--- Minnesota State
--- Alaska-Anchorage
--- Michigan Tech

[MNHockey75]

2/23

IN
1 Boston University
2t Notre Dame
2t Michigan
4t Denver
4t Vermont
6 Princeton
7 Northeastern
8t Cornell
8t New Hampshire
8t Miami

BUBBLE
11 North Dakota
12 Yale
13 Minnesota-Duluth
14 St. Lawrence

Auto-bid's (Best winning % in AHA & CHA)
--- Air Force
--- Bemidji State

OUT (WCHA teams)
16 Colorado College
17t Wisconsin
19 Minnesota
20 St. Cloud State
--- Minnesota State
--- Alaska-Anchorage
--- Michigan Tech

[MariottiMan]

* Nevermind *

[Mitch Hawker]

Only 5 WCHA games left and 5 WCHA teams are left with a shot at making the NCAA field.

DU and NoDak are in.

UW, MN, and UMD have work to do. WCHA will have at least two teams in and at most four.

At least one Minnesota team is in....Bemidji State wins the CHA autobid.

IN
1 Boston University
2 Notre Dame
3 Denver
4 Michigan
5 North Dakota
6 Northeastern
7 Yale
8t Vermont
8t New Hampshire
10 Miami
11 Cornell
12t Ohio State
CHA-Bemidji State
AHA-TBD

Bubble:
12t Princeton
12t Minnesota

OUT
15 Minnesota-Duluth
16 St. Lawrence
17t Boston College
17t Wisconsin
19t Mass.-Lowell
19t Air Force
19t Colorado College
22 St. Cloud State
23t Alaska
23t Northern Michigan
25 Minnesota State

The UMD v. UMTC game on Thursday night will likely eliminate one of them from the NCAA Tournament as well as from the Final 5. The winner of that game will still likely need to win one of their two games on Friday and Saturday in order to earn an NCAA bid..

The Badgers must win at least one game and get help, they may even need to win the Final 5 to get into the tournament.

[Mitch Hawker]

Someone on USCHO did a probability analysis (I assume based on the KRACH rankings) of each team winning the Final 5, getting into NCAA as an at large team, and of getting each seed (1-4) in the regional..


e.g. UMD is given a 13.5% chance of winning the Final 5, but a 47.8% chance of getting in as an at-large team for an overall 61.3% chance of making the NCAA tournament.

I would downgrade the Bulldogs and Gophers chances of winning the Final 5 a bit more as these probabilities do not take into account the cumulative effects of playing 3 games in three nights and I don't think anyone from the 4/5 game has ever won the Final 5.

Interesting to see that the Badgers still have a possibility (1/10,000 chance) of being a 2 Seed

CHAMPS ATLRGE NCAA SEED 1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Denver 0.3139 0.6861 1.0000 0.7693 0.2307 0.0000 0.0000
North Dakota 0.2458 0.7542 1.0000 0.0903 0.8064 0.1033 0.0000
Minnesota-Duluth 0.1345 0.4782 0.6127 0.0000 0.0690 0.2893 0.2544
Wisconsin 0.2274 0.2503 0.4777 0.0000 0.0001 0.2078 0.2698
Minnesota 0.0784 0.1912 0.2696 0.0000 0.0229 0.1354 0.1113