What probable #1 seed(AA) is the best bet for St. Paul?

[TheHockeyDJ]

Out of any section in Class AA.

Seems to me it's probably Duluth East in 7AA. The are rock solid with 2 D1 commits and they have a lot of upperclassmen on that squad.

[Lucia4President]

Out of any section in Class AA.

Seems to me it's probably Duluth East in 7AA. The are rock solid with 2 D1 commits and they have a lot of upperclassmen on that squad.

I'd say Jefferson, Edina, Blaine, Centennial, and Eden Prairie would all get seeded higher than East at State. Since the five teams I listed only come from three different sections, I'd be willing to bet that East gets the 4 seed at state, if they make it.

My current seeds at state:
1. Centennial (5AA)
2. Edina (2AA)
3. Eden Prairie (6AA)
4. Duluth East (7AA)

[karl(east)]

I think the question was which #1 seed in Sections is most likely to make it through, in which case I think most people would agree that East has the easiest apparent path. Not so easy that they can become complacent, though.

Should East go, they're pretty much guaranteed a seed, albeit a low one, unless they choke away a few games down the stretch. I see no scenario in which a team from Sections 1,4, or 8 get seeded. Woodbury would be next in line, but would probably need East to be upset to get there. I think Sections 2, 5, and 6 are pretty much guaranteed seeds, though which one they get depends on who wins them.

[Lucia4President]

I think the question was which #1 seed in Sections is most likely to make it through, in which case I think most people would agree that East has the easiest apparent path. Not so easy that they can become complacent, though.

Should East go, they're pretty much guaranteed a seed, albeit a low one, unless they choke away a few games down the stretch. I see no scenario in which a team from Sections 1,4, or 8 get seeded. Woodbury would be next in line, but would probably need East to be upset to get there. I think Sections 2, 5, and 6 are pretty much guaranteed seeds, though which one they get depends on who wins them.

Reason number 346 to pay full attention to something when reading it. Next time I'll zone my professor out completely.

[karl(east)]

I think the question was which #1 seed in Sections is most likely to make it through, in which case I think most people would agree that East has the easiest apparent path. Not so easy that they can become complacent, though.

Should East go, they're pretty much guaranteed a seed, albeit a low one, unless they choke away a few games down the stretch. I see no scenario in which a team from Sections 1,4, or 8 get seeded. Woodbury would be next in line, but would probably need East to be upset to get there. I think Sections 2, 5, and 6 are pretty much guaranteed seeds, though which one they get depends on who wins them.

Reason number 346 to pay full attention to something when reading it. Next time I'll zone my professor out completely.

Always a good plan...

[elliott70]

DEast is the best shot at a lock.

[grindiangrad-80]

DEast is the best shot at a lock.

Agreed.

[BodyShots]

Since we don't have any #1 seeds yet. I'm going to say all of them!

[King of the Pond]

Since we don't have any #1 seeds yet. I'm going to say all of them!

Does the word probable mean anything to you?? but i would have to say DE has the easiest. As for hardest id say 2 and 5 since they both have 2 teams in the top 5 teams in the state.

[BodyShots]

Since we don't have any #1 seeds yet. I'm going to say all of them!

Does the word probable mean anything to you?? but i would have to say DE has the easiest. As for hardest id say 2 and 5 since they both have 2 teams in the top 5 teams in the state.

Ask a stupid questions, get a stupid answer. Let's start a thread asking which #8 seed will keep the game from going running time.

Who cares!

[karl(east)]

In all fairness, it's virtually impossible for DE not to get the #1 seed in 7AA. They're undefeated within the section and have one game left (against a bad Cloquet team). Even if they lose that one, they'll still have beaten Elk River, the only one loss team in the section (well, St. Francis and Princeton only have one each too...but that point is moot).

[WBLHockeyfan04]

To make it easy. I'll put the probable 1&2 seeds from each section for AA.

1AA 1) Rochester Mayo 2) Lakeville North(Basing off of who's beaten who)
2AA 1) Bloomington Jefferson 2) Edina
3AA 1) Woodbury 2) Eagan
4AA 1) Hill Murray 2) WBL
5AA 1) Centennial 2) Blaine
6AA 1) Eden Prarie 2) BSM
7AA 1) Duluth East 2) Elk River
8AA 1) Moorhead 2) Roseau

I think Duluth East would have the easiest path to state, but Woodbury not to far behind. I don't pay much attention to the 1AA teams, but it seems like Moorhead is much better than Roseau this year in 8AA. So I'm going to pretty much consider Duluth East, Woodbury, and Moorhead as state teams. With Duluth East getting the nod over Woodbury as one of the top 4 seeds.

[HShockeywatcher]

As it stands now East is probably the #1 seed in 7AA. That being said, they have nothing left to prove and only everything to lose. They are a great team, but if they stumble at all or give up too many goals in any other their games, things could be questioned. Additionally, the current #2 in the section, Elk River, only lost to East in Duluth by 2 goals. After just tying Maple Grove, Elk River has both Centennial and Blaine on their schedule. If they can manage to tie both, do well against one and beat the other, or some similar scenario, it is conceivable Elk River could get the #1 seed.
I don't think Elf River will do that or earn the #1, I just don't think East has the "lock" on it everyone says.

One of the two teams I think is for sure a definite lock on the #1 seed (and probably the only "guaranteed" team to make it to state) from any section right now is Moorhead.

1AA: Too close to call right now. After seeing Century play East tough (and win) and seeing how close they have played many of the teams in their section they are my current pick to be seeded high and go to state. They are currently 5th in the section (in w-l) and only 2 games behind the top team; anything can happen in the next month.
2AA: I would like to see it (1)Edina, (2) Holy Angels, (3)Jefferson, but it will probably end up (1)Jefferson, (2) Edina, (3) Holy Angels. Only thing that could make what I would like happen is Jefferson losing a game or two, unless that happens, it's basically set now. Winner of this section should get #1 seed at state
3AA: With wins over CDH and Eagan, Woodbury is a lock for the #1 seed. Either Eagan or CDH could get hot and make it to the dance but it'll probably be Woodbury.
4AA: Hill will probably be the top seed with a win over WBL and a good season. Tartan tied Hill earlier and could do well if they get hot in sections, although their non-conference game choices may give them a semifinal match up with Hill.
5AA: This section is really won't be decided until February 19th. Blaine lost to Edina, who Centennial beat, but beat East, who East was only able to tie and head to head, they tied. Maple Grove lost to Centennial by 1 and Blaine by 6. The final meetings between these three will decide a lot.
My prediction:(1)Centennial, (2)Blaine, (3)Maple Grove. #2 seed to Centennial or Blaine, #4 to Maple Grove.
6AA: This section is a jumble of 5 teams who could all make it; EP, BSM, Tonka, Wayzata and Hopkins. My nod goes to EP and Tonka to make the finals and the winner get a #2, #3, or #4 seed at state depending who makes it from their section and others.
7AA: Duluth East should win the final against Elk River and get the #4 seed, unless Tonka makes it giving them the #3 seed, in my opinion. If Maple Grove upsets their way in, I would give East the #2 seed if Tonka makes it also. Unlikely to fall that way, but it's possible.
8AA: Moorhead should dominate their way to an unseeded state berth.

Just my two cents.

[karl(east)]

As it stands now East is probably the #1 seed in 7AA. That being said, they have nothing left to prove and only everything to lose. They are a great team, but if they stumble at all or give up too many goals in any other their games, things could be questioned. Additionally, the current #2 in the section, Elk River, only lost to East in Duluth by 2 goals. After just tying Maple Grove, Elk River has both Centennial and Blaine on their schedule. If they can manage to tie both, do well against one and beat the other, or some similar scenario, it is conceivable Elk River could get the #1 seed.
I don't think Elf River will do that or earn the #1, I just don't think East has the "lock" on it everyone says.

My understanding of the seeding process is that section record is far and away the most important factor, along with head-to-head games. Section seedings are not really supposed to reflect the strengths and weaknesses of teams and rank them in the way do for fun on here. They're more of a direct measure of performance in a set of games. Like it or not, that's the way they run things. A good example would be Blaine last year. Everyone knew they were better than Champlin Park, but CP got the 2 seed anyways in 5AA.

And because I've seen this popping up in other places that "East only beat ER by 2"...one of ER's goals came late, and the final shots in that game were 49-13 East. Also, 3 of East's top players sat out the 1st period for minor team rule violations. In the 2nd and 3rd periods, ER amassed a whopping 4 shots on goal.

Also, ER isn't guaranteed the 2 seed yet. If they lose to Andover on Thursday, it's very possible that Andover could slip in and snag it. And to be honest, Andover's played East better than any other team in 7AA. I don't think this will happen (ER won their first meeting 3-0), but it could.

Further on ER...I think their general style of play is also very good at keeping them in games. Anyone who's seen ER hockey knows how aesthetically awful it is, but Sarsland's been running this style there forever, and it keeps them more or less in games you'd otherwise think they have no chance in. That's my theory with them, anyways.

Also, I wouldn't punch Moorhead's ticket to the X just yet. They needed OT to beat Roseau the second time around (shots were dead even), and the Rams are about to get Nick Oliver back. The Spuds are still the favorite, but I see it being very competitive.

[HShockeywatcher]

Karl, ideally you would be right, but, since it doesn't work that way for every section, I think you should use everything as a whole. Just my two cents.