Duluth Schools Future (A vs AA)

[HSH1212]

I know this seems random, especially with the State Tournaments going on, but I was curious as to the enrollment situations at the Duluth High Schools, and what that entails in terms of A vs AA.

So... The enrollment for Central, Denfeld and East. The three numbers are (mshsl listed enrollment-September enrollment- March enrollment)
Central: 918-976-937
Denfeld: 931-1010-938
East: 1222-1299-1251

The Minnesota State High School League states that limits for A and AA are:
A: 1-1359
AA: 1360-3099

Right now, only East plays AA, and by their enrollment, they aern't required to be in AA. But the big question is what will happen when the schools combine. If we split Central's enrollment in half between the two schools (and using the the March 2009 Duluth Public Schools numbers), then the enrollments would be:

Denfeld:1406.6 (47.5 over cut off point)
East: 1719.5 (360.5 over cut off point)

This would require both teams to play AA. This is not of course accurate, because I don't know if it will be a perfect split between Central's students, they won't be required to go to one versus the other, and the fact is....the enrollment keeps dropping at the Duluth Schools.

Just some food for thought. But I wonder, with Denfeld (barring a drop below the cutoff point, which could happen) will lose kids to other schools, because they will be playing in tougher AA. Of course, I am sure the Denfeld staff will be hoping that they can manage to slip below the cut off point of 1359, which could happen.

PS. Sorry for the .5. It's funny to think of half students.


Sources:
Duluth Schools Enrollment in March (according to Duluth Public Schools): http://www.duluth.k12.mn.us/education/s ... h_2009.pdf
High Schools Enrollment by MSHSL: http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/enrollments07.asp?sort=2
Duluth Schools Enrollment in September (according to Duluth Public Schools): http://www.duluth.k12.mn.us/education/s ... r_2008.pdf

[east hockey]

As you say, Denfeld would be in AA if the students are split evenly between there and East. I have a fairly strong suspicion that this won't be the case, that the majority will want to go to East, so we'll end up where we're at now; East in AA, Denfeld in A.

Good research, by the way.

Lee

[hshckfan08]

Don't forget Marshall in the equation. They will most certainly gain students from this change. Honestly, the switch to 2 public schools will probably keep Marshall from going under.

[east hockey]

Don't forget Marshall in the equation. They will most certainly gain students from this change. Honestly, the switch to 2 public schools will probably keep Marshall from going under.

I wasn't aware Marshall was at risk of going under.

Lee

[HSH1212]

I have a fairly strong suspicion that this won't be the case, that the majority will want to go to East, so we'll end up where we're at now; East in AA, Denfeld in A.

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

Don't forget Marshall in the equation. They will most certainly gain students from this change. Honestly, the switch to 2 public schools will probably keep Marshall from going under.

You know, its funny you say that, because I was talking with someone who knows Marshall, and apparently they have raising the tuition by large amounts each year since they got the new principal. There has also apparently been some discontent with what the principal is doing. You would think in this economic environment, and the fact that the decadent public school district (with oversized classes, and not enough desks for students) will be combining, Marshall would try to appeal more to people. Now this might not stop people, specfically hockey players from transferring (especially since their will only be 2 high school teams now...20 players displaced). But I don't know.

[east hockey]

I have a fairly strong suspicion that this won't be the case, that the majority will want to go to East, so we'll end up where we're at now; East in AA, Denfeld in A.

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

[HSH1212]

I have a fairly strong suspicion that this won't be the case, that the majority will want to go to East, so we'll end up where we're at now; East in AA, Denfeld in A.

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

Let me ask you this: Would you rather see the Hunters A or AA?

[TF681001]

East is the size of a single A school but play in AA for the better competition. I think that if two schools are created that most of the more skilled players will go to East. I think Denfeld should prob stay in A to stay competitive

[Northhcky]

I have a fairly strong suspicion that this won't be the case, that the majority will want to go to East, so we'll end up where we're at now; East in AA, Denfeld in A.

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

Don't think Hermantown will get any unless they move there. 99.9% sure the is no open inrollment allowed anymore at Hermantown...at capacity now. There is talk about having to build a new middle school or some other configuration of making the HS a middle and new HS...many considerations. I know the lower HS grades as in 9th are over capacity now.

[east hockey]

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

Let me ask you this: Would you rather see the Hunters A or AA?

From a talent standpoint, they're a better fit for Class A, and I don't see siphoning some of the Central players helping that situation much. From the standpoint of having 7AA be a northern section, I'd like to see them in AA.

Lee

[east hockey]

I agree. We won't know what part of town most Central kids live in, so the split won't be 100% even. And even if it was even, East, being highly regarded as the best (education, athletics, everything for that matter) of the three public high schools will take more than the 50/50 share. So, Denfeld may be A in a few years. Of course, even if they aern't at the beginning, the falling enrollment will bring them down eventually. I mean, looking at my data (according to the Duluth Public Schools), Central has lost 37 students since the beginning of the year, Denfeld has lost 72 students since the beginning of the year, and East has lost 48 students since the beginning of the year. They might be dropouts, but the enrollment is dropping nonetheless.

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

Don't think Hermantown will get any unless they move there. 99.9% sure the is no open inrollment allowed anymore at Hermantown...at capacity now. There is talk about having to build a new middle school or some other configuration of making the HS a middle and new HS...many considerations. I know the lower HS grades as in 9th are over capacity now.

I didn't know that. Thanks for clearing that up. Besides, I don't know if they would carry through on their threats to move their students out of the district, or if they're just frustrated with the Red Plan.

Lee

[Northhcky]

There is also the threat that some parents would pull their children out of ISD 709 altogether and send them to Proctor or Hermantown, if the Red Plan continues to move forward. Who knows? Maybe then Hermantown will have to move up to Class AA after being bloated with all those Duluth student "refugees".

Lee

Don't think Hermantown will get any unless they move there. 99.9% sure the is no open inrollment allowed anymore at Hermantown...at capacity now. There is talk about having to build a new middle school or some other configuration of making the HS a middle and new HS...many considerations. I know the lower HS grades as in 9th are over capacity now.

I didn't know that. Thanks for clearing that up. Besides, I don't know if they would carry through on their threats to move their students out of the district, or if they're just frustrated with the Red Plan.

Lee

I don't know either it's a mess for sure. Duluth has had to do something for sure but you can't get ppl to agree. Never will. Kind of like on here eh lee?

[HSH1212]

Yeah, Hermantown is getting pretty big. 638 students for this year. That must be where a lot of people are taking their kids. They have a good school.

[hshckfan08]

Don't forget Marshall in the equation. They will most certainly gain students from this change. Honestly, the switch to 2 public schools will probably keep Marshall from going under.

I wasn't aware Marshall was at risk of going under.

Lee

Enrollment has declined steadily in the past 5 years. Some of it has to do with the reduction of students in the duluth area, but the reductions can not be attributed purely to that. I'm not going to go into detail, but the school is definitely struggling with enrollment, and being a private school is ultimately struggling financially. They will certainly gain students from the split, which will revive their numbers and the school.

[EHSHack]

Marshall won't be gaining any kids. Majority of Denfeld and Central, and East kids for that matter can't afford 12,000 dollars a year...

[karl(east)]

Don't forget Marshall in the equation. They will most certainly gain students from this change. Honestly, the switch to 2 public schools will probably keep Marshall from going under.

I wasn't aware Marshall was at risk of going under.

Lee

Enrollment has declined steadily in the past 5 years. Some of it has to do with the reduction of students in the duluth area, but the reductions can not be attributed purely to that. I'm not going to go into detail, but the school is definitely struggling with enrollment, and being a private school is ultimately struggling financially. They will certainly gain students from the split, which will revive their numbers and the school.

I have heard similar things about Marshall. They're in a rough situation; we'll see if the Red Plan will end up helping it or if it's all just talk.

As for whether the new Denfeld will be A or AA, I'd just assumed until recently that they'd split the Central students evenly. But someone had a very good demographic recently that showed how much of the school-age population in Duluth lives on the east side, so I guess I wouldn't be too surprised to see Denfeld stay in A at this point. I'd rather see them in AA, but there's not much we can do about such things.

[bluelineenvy]

I hope East would stay AA, we need quality AA schools up from up north to cheer for at the tourny!
It stinks for the duluth area kids though, 20 less varisty hockey spots available. We would all like to see the #'s of mn kids playing varsity hockey increase, I hope with the way the economy is the Duluth situation will not be happening all over. Last year the big talk was sports in Brainerd going away when their referendom failed.

[MajinHockey]

This is a version of the plan from last August anyway, http://duluth.mn.schoolwebpages.com/edu ... _mode=view

You would have to suspect either an amount of gerrymandering to accommodate the current high schools maximum capacities, or allow for enough time to expand at whatever schools (i've been told Ordean would actually become the new East high School as it has more room to expand, updatable, etc) will actually be used.

This is second hand tho, a friend of mine lives in the Eastern district, although if it were up to me I'd make sure they move back to Cloquet when his son gets to be school aged, so as to not grow up tainted is all.