AA Rankings for 1/17/09

[karl(east)]

A couple of things before I start.

First, I feel the need to put in another civility disclaimer. 97% of the comments I get I’m fine with, and as I’ve said countless times, I genuinely appreciate the input. But last week a few crossed the line. Attack my rankings all you want; that’s fine. But from now on I will not give posts that question my intelligence or the work put into this the honor of a response. I don’t have time to deal with that or get into petty arguments on an internet message board. (Nor should you.) Thank you.

Also, a new issue has arisen in the past week, with several suspensions seriously impacting the outcome of several games. These incidents raise the question over how to rank the involved teams. Do we throw out the results as an inaccurate reflection of what a team is capable of? Do we incorporate them, and penalize the said team for their players’ poor decisions? Dealing with full-season suspensions like we had last year was relatively straightforward, but 2-week suspensions are a bit more complicated. The good news is that these will not impact anything this week, but it will definitely come into play next week. Right now, my thought is to acknowledge the result of these games, but give them considerably less weight than a regular contest. Input is appreciated.

Now for the main feature. It was a difficult week, to say the least. In parenthesis are overall records followed by records against other top teams.

1. Minnetonka (15-0/8-0)
-Continue to cruise along, as they went on the road and throttled a decent team. Now they launch into the Classic Lake schedule, which provides 4 potential upsets interspersed with some easy wins. The first tough one comes this Saturday as they play host to the team that came closest to beating them, Edina.
This week: Tues vs. Blake, Thurs at Hopkins, Sat vs. #2 Edina

2. Edina (12-2-1/8-2-1)
-Collected yet another quality win by handling Benilde in their only game this past week. Now it gets really fun, as they face the only two teams that have beaten them in one week, both on the road. Time to see how this relatively inexperienced team handles its biggest tests.
This week: Thurs at #5 Wayzata, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

3. Eden Prairie (10-2/4-2)
-Their demolition of Eagan gives them a strong case for #2, but I’m keeping them here due to that loss at Braemar earlier this season. Right now they appear to be something of a one-line show, but they’re hitting their stride. A win over Jefferson would likely all but wrap up the Lake, and that game against Hermantown on Hockey Day has a chance to be interesting.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at Hermantown

4. Hill-Murray (13-1-1/3-1-1)
-Cleaned up on the CSC this past week, but they’ll get a real test this week in a non-conference matchup with Holy Angels. Reaping the benefits of a weak schedule as many teams around them go down.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Holy Angels, Sat vs. Henry Sibley

5. Wayzata (11-2-1/5-2-1)
-Cases have been made against this team in recent weeks, but the bottom line is that they have an impressive record against a tough schedule, and the Burnsville win did help restore some confidence. Interesting schedule from here on out, as they play teams they should beat…and 2 each with the top 2 teams in the state. Time to see how much that early-season win against Edina was really worth.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Edina, Sat at Armstrong

6. Blaine (9-3-3/5-3-3)
-A couple of ties this week are not very compelling, but they have avoided losing, which is something no other NWSC team can say when it comes to conference play. The record is strong, but they appear quite beatable, and a couple of suspensions over the coming weeks aren’t going to help either. The good news is that this is the easiest week left on their schedule, though Andover could get them if they don’t play well.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat at Coon Rapids

7. Osseo (10-2-1/1-2-1)
-I have my reservations about this, but someone has to go in at #7, and as Osseo continues to make it clear they belong towards the top of the NWSC, they’ve done just enough. They’ve managed to achieve some sense of consistency, which few teams can say. They have their work cut out for them to hang onto the spot, with 3 teams that could definitely beat them up this week.
This week: Tues at #11 Benilde, Thurs at Centennial, Sat vs. Andover

8. Duluth East (9-4-2/3-4-1)
-Survived a road trip up to Grand Rapids and picked up a key 7AA win. Their tour of the section continues this week, as they face their biggest competitor for the top seed before taking on the crosstown rivals. The game at Elk River will be quite the test for this young team on the road.
This week: Tues at #15 Elk River, Thurs at Duluth Denfeld

9. Eagan (11-2-1/2-2-1)
-The EP loss brings them back to earth a bit, but I’m not throwing the towel on them yet. They still have enough good wins on the schedule to stay relatively high, and though people will argue that the EP game proves the Jefferson win was a joke, I’m going to withhold judgment until Jefferson plays EP, too. A potentially difficult game against South this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville South, Sat vs. Chaska

10. Bloomington Jefferson (10-2-2/4-1-2)
-Another not-so-great result went on the board this past week, leaving me more certain that I had them in the right place last week. I know they’re talented; I’ve seen what they’re capable of. But they simply are not playing like a great team right now, and do not deserved to be ranked as such. That can change if they pick up a big win this week; though EP is good, I do think they’re beatable. Time for this team to step up and prove something.
This week: Tues at #3 Eden Prairie, Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

11. Benilde (10-3-1/2-2-1)
-Loss to Edina confirms they belong somewhere around here. Play arguably the biggest game left on their schedule Tuesday with a non-conference game against Osseo. As they’ve been rather inconsistent, a win would go quite a ways in proving their value.
This week: Tues vs. #7 Osseo, Sat vs. St. Francis

12. Holy Angels (7-5-1/2-4-1)
- Hard to judge the real value of their trip out east; the big win over Mt. St. Charles looks good, but they have beaten Boston Memorial in the past. The weak conference and numerous games against non-MSHSL teams puts a lot of value on their games against other top teams, and they’ve got a big one coming up this Thursday. Beyond that, they’ll spend the next couple of weeks beefing up that un-Holy-Angels-ish record.
This week: Tues at Northfield, Thurs at #4 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. Hutchinson

13. Roseau (12-2-1/0-2)
-The record is great, but I just don’t see much compelling evidence that they’re a top-10 team. Warroad is a good team, yes, but they’re not flawless; they’ve lost to East Grand Forks and Grand Rapids. They wouldn’t make the top 10 in the AA rankings, and since Warroad beat Roseau, there’s no great reason to stick the Rams any higher than this. They can restore a little of my confidence in them if they can take care over the next few weeks in games against their biggest section opponents and the Warroad rematch.
This week: Fri at Bemidji

14. Maple Grove (7-5-3/2-5-1)
-An odd week; they tied Blaine, then got whacked by Osseo, but hold on to #14 due to their win over Elk River In need of a convincing win somewhere along the line. Their record should look a little better pretty soon, as 4 of their next 5 come against the dregs of the NWSC.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat at Anoka

15. Elk River (7-5-2/1-5-1)
-Looking more impressive lately with a tie over Osseo and an utter dismantling of Coon Rapids. Have a chance to be a very dangerous team, but they need a big win to make a jump. Their opportunity comes this Tuesday in the battle for #1 in 7AA.
This week: Tues vs. #8 Duluth East, Thurs vs. Champlin Park, Sat at North Metro

Next in Line
Burnsville (6-6-3/1-4-2)
-I was very tempted to rank them; the Jefferson tie was just another in a string of very close contests against very good teams. One could reasonably call them one of the most dangerous teams in the state, as they came close to picking off Wayzata, too. Their problem is that, while playing teams close is good, ultimately they need a few wins.
Centennial (7-5-2/1-5-2)
-Had a big week by beating Andover and tying Blaine, but it’s hard to justify putting them any higher when they lost to both MG and ER last week. Taking down Osseo might get them back into the rankings, though.
Apple Valley (9-5/0-5)
-Played EP pretty close, but have yet to find that big win that they need. Easy week ahead of them.
Lakeville South (9-5/1-5)
-No, your eyes do not deceive you; a 1AA team has made the top 20. They’ve been playing very well of late and could cause some serious trouble down the stretch in the Lake. Big games this week against Century and Eagan.
Woodbury (9-6-1)
-It may not be pretty, but they are being opportunistic and winning the games they need to win. At this point, that makes them the class of the SEC. Schedule isn’t too bad from here on out either; they’ll probably be favored in all of their remaining games, and the re-matches with WBL and CDH don’t come until the very end of the season.
White Bear Lake (9-6)
-The suspensions obviously cost them a lot in the Woodbury game, but they did manage a win against Roseville, and they have a fighting chance in their 2 games this week too. We’ll just let them float here for now.
Andover (11-3-1)
-Got exposed a bit this week, giving up 8 to Centennial and just scraping by Anoka. Huge week in the NWSC ahead of them.


And a run through the sections:

1AA
(19) Lakeville South
Rochester Century
Lakeville North
-With the upset of Jefferson, North has moved back into the conversation despite a weak record. South is on a roll right now, though, and might be one of the better 1AA teams in a while. The top seed will probably be decided this week when Century visits LVS.

2AA
2 Edina
10 Jefferson
12 Holy Angels
(16) Burnsville
-What a mess. With limited games amongst each other and several ties now on the board, the seeding here could get ugly. Edina has the inside track for #1, but I thought that last year too. The second meeting between Jefferson and Burnsville will be crucial.

3AA
9 Eagan
(18) Apple Valley
(20) Woodbury
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan’s loss leaves the door open a bit, and preseason favorite Woodbury finally appears to be on the rise. Despite the gap between 1 and 2, which has been confirmed somewhat by Eagan’s win over AV, this one still feels quite open to me. CDH needs to get it together soon if they want to have any chance of defending their title.

4AA
4 Hill-Murray
(21) White Bear Lake
-Tartan has more or less fallen off the radar since the last time I did this, leaving us with the two usual culprits. A team to watch might be Stillwater, who put up some big wins last week. But with WBL mired in difficulties right now, Hill is miles ahead of the pack.

5AA
6 Blaine
7 Osseo
14 Maple Grove
(17) Centennial
-This section has four teams that have proven they are very capable of winning, which will cause a dogfight down the stretch and create one of the best sets of semifinals out there. Seeding may not matter all that much here since they all play each other so close.

6AA
1 Minnetonka
3 Eden Prairie
5 Wayzata
11 Benilde
-The section of death keeps its title, with 3 in the top 5 and Benilde continuing to lurk as a dangerous semifinal opponent. If EP’s hot streak continues, the hype over the possible section final matchup with Tonka will be justified, and it might just be a 1-vs.-2. No team has more riding on the Classic Lake schedule than Wayzata; a big win or two will make this a great section flat-out ridiculous.

7AA
8 Duluth East
15 Elk River
(22) Andover
Grand Rapids
-Rapids moves back into the conversation, as they now have 1-goal losses to both DE and ER; I expect them to be a very dangerous semifinal opponent if they can make it there. Still waiting to know what to make of Andover. The top seed is on the line in ER this week.

8AA
13 Roseau
Moorhead
Brainerd?
Bemidji?
-Roseau is still the frontrunner, and Moorhead is still the #2, as has been the case for the past month. Brainerd is making some noise with a hot streak, and Bemidji is hovering there too, but they need to do something in a big game to really jump into the picture.

There you go; have fun.

[rudy]

fantastic work. this is the first place to go for bigtime hs hockey info in minnesota. you need to find a way to have a wider audience for this research.

[besthockeyfan]

Great job Karl. I think you're right on this week. I saw EP yesterday and they were Rrreeeeeally good. It's not hard to see how they won it all last year.
I think you're right on about Burnsville being a sleeper as well. They totally outplayed Wayzata as I think the shots were 39-20. I surely wouldn't want to play them in sections.
Anyway, keep up the good work. Your time spent on this is appreciated!

[ya-man]

This is excellent, everything you want to know about HS hockey.

[Factsmatter1]

Your usual stellar job again this week Karl. Something tells me the critics will be at bay as I suspect you will have a lot less disagreement this week...

Thanks for a fantastic job!

[ClassicHockey]

This is a great breakdown, is there one for class A this week?

[HShockeywatcher]

This is a great breakdown, is there one for class A this week?

Movie last night and church this morning made it take longer. Glad to see people enjoy it.

As always, good work Karl.

- I would personally have Wayzata lower as who their two losses were to, I'd switch them and Blaine.

- Agree that Osseo is hard to tell at the moment. This week should help.

[mngophs04]

Couldn't agree more this week. I was wondering where the "needs" category went, or was that just a one-time thing? I found it pretty interesting.

[Sykes]

A couple of things before I start.

3AA
9 Eagan
(18) Apple Valley
(20) Woodbury
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan’s loss leaves the door open a bit, and preseason favorite Woodbury finally appears to be on the rise. Despite the gap between 1 and 2, which has been confirmed somewhat by Eagan’s win over AV, this one still feels quite open to me. CDH needs to get it together soon if they want to have any chance of defending their title.
.

Being the #1 seed in this and it's predecessor section has not been a blessing

2009 Woodbury Cretin section champ
2008 Rosemount Woodbury section champ
2007 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA
2006 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA

You may not want the #1 target on your back. Also on a side note, at the Bantam "A" level, these were the group of Eagan and Woodbury kid's that went 8 OTs in District play to advance to the regionals. Woodbury outshot Eagan 83 to 47 but Eagan won 4-3.

[karl(east)]

Couldn't agree more this week. I was wondering where the "needs" category went, or was that just a one-time thing? I found it pretty interesting.

I don't think that each team's needs have changed drastically over just one week, so I didn't repeat it. But since it got a lot of positive comments, I hope to bring it back once or twice before the end of the season. You might see it again in another week or two.

Nothing but positive comments so far? That's a bit unnerving.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Solid ranking this week Karl and the game schedule helped that shake out a bit. This week will do the same so far as the key match ups. Great work!

[Goldfishdude]

Couldn't agree more this week. I was wondering where the "needs" category went, or was that just a one-time thing? I found it pretty interesting.

I don't think that each team's needs have changed drastically over just one week, so I didn't repeat it. But since it got a lot of positive comments, I hope to bring it back once or twice before the end of the season. You might see it again in another week or two.

Nothing but positive comments so far? That's a bit unnerving.

Ummmmm..... Karl???? Aaaahhhhh.... does this have anything to do with your ability to reach out to the CIA, Secret Service??

For those of you that were ripping Karl last week, there weren't any ACME Laundry vans outside your residences were there?

[wbmd]

A couple of things before I start.

3AA
9 Eagan
(18) Apple Valley
(20) Woodbury
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan’s loss leaves the door open a bit, and preseason favorite Woodbury finally appears to be on the rise. Despite the gap between 1 and 2, which has been confirmed somewhat by Eagan’s win over AV, this one still feels quite open to me. CDH needs to get it together soon if they want to have any chance of defending their title.
.

Being the #1 seed in this and it's predecessor section has not been a blessing

2009 Woodbury Cretin section champ
2008 Rosemount Woodbury section champ
2007 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA
2006 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA

You may not want the #1 target on your back. Also on a side note, at the Bantam "A" level, these were the group of Eagan and Woodbury kid's that went 8 OTs in District play to advance to the regionals. Woodbury outshot Eagan 83 to 47 but Eagan won 4-3.

Woodbury has only been to the State Tournament twice (2007 & 2008). In 2006, Cretin was the top seed in 2AA. They won the section title along with the state title.

[Sykes]

A couple of things before I start.

3AA
9 Eagan
(18) Apple Valley
(20) Woodbury
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan’s loss leaves the door open a bit, and preseason favorite Woodbury finally appears to be on the rise. Despite the gap between 1 and 2, which has been confirmed somewhat by Eagan’s win over AV, this one still feels quite open to me. CDH needs to get it together soon if they want to have any chance of defending their title.
.

Being the #1 seed in this and it's predecessor section has not been a blessing

2009 Woodbury Cretin section champ
2008 Rosemount Woodbury section champ
2007 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA
2006 Cretin Woodbury section champ before realignment 3AA

You may not want the #1 target on your back. Also on a side note, at the Bantam "A" level, these were the group of Eagan and Woodbury kid's that went 8 OTs in District play to advance to the regionals. Woodbury outshot Eagan 83 to 47 but Eagan won 4-3.

Woodbury has only been to the State Tournament twice (2007 & 2008). In 2006, Cretin was the top seed in 2AA. They won the section title along with the state title.

Your right. Cretin beat Woodbury in the section final, I believe by a goal. Good catch.

[karl(east)]

Couldn't agree more this week. I was wondering where the "needs" category went, or was that just a one-time thing? I found it pretty interesting.

I don't think that each team's needs have changed drastically over just one week, so I didn't repeat it. But since it got a lot of positive comments, I hope to bring it back once or twice before the end of the season. You might see it again in another week or two.

Nothing but positive comments so far? That's a bit unnerving.

Ummmmm..... Karl???? Aaaahhhhh.... does this have anything to do with your ability to reach out to the CIA, Secret Service??

For those of you that were ripping Karl last week, there weren't any ACME Laundry vans outside your residences were there?

I will say only that I had a very nice first week back here in DC, and that I enjoyed getting back to work with several of my good friends out here. If you know what I mean.

[Goldfishdude]

I don't think that each team's needs have changed drastically over just one week, so I didn't repeat it. But since it got a lot of positive comments, I hope to bring it back once or twice before the end of the season. You might see it again in another week or two.

Nothing but positive comments so far? That's a bit unnerving.

Ummmmm..... Karl???? Aaaahhhhh.... does this have anything to do with your ability to reach out to the CIA, Secret Service??

For those of you that were ripping Karl last week, there weren't any ACME Laundry vans outside your residences were there?

I will say only that I had a very nice first week back here in DC, and that I enjoyed getting back to work with several of my good friends out here. If you know what I mean.

I think I understand.

[dulutheastfan]

Look's good

[schwang17]

A couple of things before I start.

First, I feel the need to put in another civility disclaimer. 97% of the comments I get I’m fine with, and as I’ve said countless times, I genuinely appreciate the input. But last week a few crossed the line. Attack my rankings all you want; that’s fine. But from now on I will not give posts that question my intelligence or the work put into this the honor of a response. I don’t have time to deal with that or get into petty arguments on an internet message board. (Nor should you.) Thank you.

Too many people kissing Karl's behind this week so I'll be the bad guy again.

Same story as last week - Duluth East, Osseo, Wayzata and Blaine are all too high and Jefferson is still too low.

Hope that's not "crossing the line", there Karl.

[25 sheet power]

Why keep Roso out of top 10 because they lost to Warroad but not Osseo?

[Papa Bergundy]

A couple of things before I start.

First, I feel the need to put in another civility disclaimer. 97% of the comments I get I’m fine with, and as I’ve said countless times, I genuinely appreciate the input. But last week a few crossed the line. Attack my rankings all you want; that’s fine. But from now on I will not give posts that question my intelligence or the work put into this the honor of a response. I don’t have time to deal with that or get into petty arguments on an internet message board. (Nor should you.) Thank you.

Too many people kissing Karl's behind this week so I'll be the bad guy again.

Same story as last week - Duluth East, Osseo, Wayzata and Blaine are all too high and Jefferson is still too low.

Hope that's not "crossing the line", there Karl.

Who do you suggest moves ahead of those four then? I don't really see the teams behind them deserving of the better ranking. Maybe Roseau? Although they haven't really won against many quality teams (as usual).

[toptitty96]

A couple of things before I start.

First, I feel the need to put in another civility disclaimer. 97% of the comments I get I’m fine with, and as I’ve said countless times, I genuinely appreciate the input. But last week a few crossed the line. Attack my rankings all you want; that’s fine. But from now on I will not give posts that question my intelligence or the work put into this the honor of a response. I don’t have time to deal with that or get into petty arguments on an internet message board. (Nor should you.) Thank you.

Too many people kissing Karl's behind this week so I'll be the bad guy again.

Same story as last week - Duluth East, Osseo, Wayzata and Blaine are all too high and Jefferson is still too low.

Hope that's not "crossing the line", there Karl.

Who do you suggest moves ahead of those four then? I don't really see the teams behind them deserving of the better ranking. Maybe Roseau? Although they haven't really won against many quality teams (as usual).

My idea would be to switch Blaine and Wayzata. Then I think I just have a tie from 7-9 with East, Eagan, and Jefferson, and then I'd place Osseo just below because they haven't really proven too much. The year is too up and down and when you start to compare common opponent matchups it becomes completely unclear where to place teams. Wayzata lost to Jefferson but Jefferson lost to Eagan. Does that make Eagan better than both of those teams? Probably not. The year seems to be one in which any team in about the top 12-13 can beat any other, with the exception of Minnetonka maybe. I'm still waiting for certain teams to live up to their talent (Benilde, Jefferson, AHA). Should be really interesting come sections.

[karl(east)]

A couple of things before I start.

First, I feel the need to put in another civility disclaimer. 97% of the comments I get I’m fine with, and as I’ve said countless times, I genuinely appreciate the input. But last week a few crossed the line. Attack my rankings all you want; that’s fine. But from now on I will not give posts that question my intelligence or the work put into this the honor of a response. I don’t have time to deal with that or get into petty arguments on an internet message board. (Nor should you.) Thank you.

Too many people kissing Karl's behind this week so I'll be the bad guy again.

Same story as last week - Duluth East, Osseo, Wayzata and Blaine are all too high and Jefferson is still too low.

Hope that's not "crossing the line", there Karl.

Thanks; it's nowhere close to crossing it.

I didn't have much of any trouble with #s 1-6 (though I do see why people would flip Blaine and Wayzata), or #14-up. The rest was quite difficult. I had the rankings nearly finished Saturday night, but slept on #s 7-10 because it was so complicated.

As I've said before, Jefferson's very capable of being higher, they just have to earn it. They do have one big win against Wayzata, but that's washed out somewhat by the LVN loss. Beyond that we have a loss to Eagan and a tie to Burnsville, and though those aren't bad results, they're not the same as a loss to Edina or Minnetonka.

They are in a good position to prove they can be higher, though, with two cracks at EP, a second shot at Eagan, and more games against the other good Lake teams.

Osseo is higher than Roseau because of the schedule difference, though their ranking is the only one up there that bothers me right now.

Toptitty has some good points; I'd agree that some teams are interchangeable. But I don't do ties in the rankings; I just don't see what the fun in that is.

[schwang17]

Too many people kissing Karl's behind this week so I'll be the bad guy again.

Same story as last week - Duluth East, Osseo, Wayzata and Blaine are all too high and Jefferson is still too low.

Hope that's not "crossing the line", there Karl.

Thanks; it's nowhere close to crossing it.

I didn't have much of any trouble with #s 1-6 (though I do see why people would flip Blaine and Wayzata), or #14-up. The rest was quite difficult. I had the rankings nearly finished Saturday night, but slept on #s 7-10 because it was so complicated.

As I've said before, Jefferson's very capable of being higher, they just have to earn it. They do have one big win against Wayzata, but that's washed out somewhat by the LVN loss. Beyond that we have a loss to Eagan and a tie to Burnsville, and though those aren't bad results, they're not the same as a loss to Edina or Minnetonka.

They are in a good position to prove they can be higher, though, with two cracks at EP, a second shot at Eagan, and more games against the other good Lake teams.

Osseo is higher than Roseau because of the schedule difference, though their ranking is the only one up there that bothers me right now.

Toptitty has some good points; I'd agree that some teams are interchangeable. But I don't do ties in the rankings; I just don't see what the fun in that is.

Jefferson is gonna have to play their best game of the year to beat EP @ EP. Their defense/goaltending has me a bit uneasy going into this game. The Jags really need a big road win after donking off 2 games at home already.

[CB00]

Duluth East at 8? This is the only ranking on the web that has them even in the top 10. The next highest I see the Hounds is 12 at LPH. Every other site even lower. How can you justify a eight spot? Com' on Karl, if you want to be legit, don't be a homer.

If the Hounds lose to ER keep them at 8, good loss

[karl(east)]

Duluth East at 8? This is the only ranking on the web that has them even in the top 10. The next highest I see the Hounds is 12 at LPH. Every other site even lower. How can you justify a eight spot? Com' on Karl, if you want to be legit, don't be a homer.

If the Hounds lose to ER keep them at 8, good loss

I talked about East at length last week, and the same arguments apply. I have nothing to gain from ranking East higher than where the record says they belong.

Of course they will go tumbling if they lose to ER.