End of Regular Season AA Rankings

[karl(east)]

Well, that’s it for the regular season. By this time next week, 52 of the 72 AA teams in Minnesota will be done for the year; several hundred seniors will have played their last game of organized hockey, and only a select few will be left preparing for the bright lights of March. It’s a sobering thought, but it reminds us what a spectacle we have to watch. Time to put the rankings on the line, throw out the records, and get into the playoffs.

With sections about to begin, I’m going to shake up the format a bit. First, I’m going to list the top 25; don’t freak out right away, as the explanations will come in the section-by-section breakdowns. In those breakdowns, the teams will be listed in order of seeding; this means that right now some of the matchup discussion is speculative, so check back, as I may see the need to edit things. Seedings will not impact the rankings, however--these are assessments of the strengths of each team, not their likelihood to get to state.

1. Minnetonka (22-1-2)
2. Wayzata (20-2-3)
3. Edina (18-6-1)
4. Burnsville (16-6-3)
5. Eden Prairie (20-4-1)
6. Blaine (18-4-3)
7. Hill-Murray (22-2-1)
8. Centennial (17-5-3)
9. Bloomington Jefferson (17-5-3)
10. Eagan (20-4-1)
11. Duluth East (16-5-4)
12. Holy Angels (17-7-1)
13. Elk River (16-7-2)
14. Moorhead (12-10-2)
15. Andover (16-7-2)
16. Lakeville South (16-9)
17. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7)
18. Osseo (14-8-3)
19. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-6-3)
20. Maple Grove (13-9-3)
21. Brainerd (22-3)
22. Forest Lake (17-6-2)
23. Roseau (19-5-1)
24. Woodbury (15-8-2)
25. Apple Valley (14-11)

Just missing: White Bear Lake, Grand Rapids, Hopkins, Tartan, Stillwater, Bemidji.

Okay, on to sections.

1AA
PI Tues 2/23 High Seed Home
QF Thurs 2/25 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 Rochester Rec Ctr.
F Thurs 3/5 Rochester Rec Ctr.

1. Lakeville South (16)
-It will take an upset of considerable size to keep LVS out of the state tournament. Not only that, they’ll be one of the better representatives of this section over the past decade; although the road to state is much easier, their regular season achievements aren’t any worse than any team in 8AA. I’m surprised this team isn’t getting any recognition in other rankings.
2. Rochester Century
3. Lakeville North
4. Winona
5. Owatonna
6. Farmington
7. Rochester John Marshall
8. Rochester Mayo
9. Dodge County

2AA
QF Thurs 2/25 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 BIG/Braemar
F Wed 3/3 Target Center

1. Edina (3)
-Rounded out the season with a couple of easy wins. It had its ups and downs, but they ended on a high note, and with a 4-0 record against the teams immediately below them, it’s hard to say this is too high a ranking.
2. Burnsville (4)
-Put an exclamation point on their late-season run with a strong win over Jefferson. I put them ahead of EP due to the recent head-to-head matchup. Some might say this is too high, but I’ve had them higher than most for several weeks now and they have yet to disappoint me. This team is a legitimate state title contender, though the road won’t be easy--a rematch with Jefferson sure would be worth catching.
3. Bloomington Jefferson (9)
-Backing into the playoffs after an ugly tie against Lakeville North and a loss to Burnsville. For all the top-end talent, they have yet to win the big game, and the goaltending is vulnerable, which is never a good sign heading into sections. They’re capable of going higher, but they haven’t really earned it, and I’m afraid I’m pessimistic about their odds from here.
4. Holy Angels (12)
-Got one last nice win this week by finishing off Benilde, though not in the convincing fashion I would have needed to move them higher. They head into 2AA as the dark horse, very capable of disrupting things and even winning, if enough things go right.
5. Chaska
6. Prior Lake
7. Shakopee
8. Bloomington Kennedy

3AA
PI Tues 2/23 High Seed Home
QF Thurs 2/25 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 St. Paul Coliseum
F Thurs 3/4 St. Paul Coliseum

1. Eagan (10)
-A few closer-than-expected wins down the stretch leave me wondering about this team a bit, but wins are wins, and they’ve certainly earned the top seed in their section. Time to see how a young and relatively inexperienced team handles the big stage against a couple of teams that have been down this road before
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (17)
-A strong win over Woodbury ends their season on a high note; some of those ugly earlier results aside, they put together a pretty strong season. Like last year, they seem to be coming together at the right time, and as the defending section champions, that has to put some worry into the competition. This team knows what it’s doing, and I would not be at all shocked to see them return to the X.
3. Woodbury (24)
-Inability to do much against Cretin leaves me doubting their ability in big games. They certainly could win the section, they just haven’t done much to suggest that over the course of the year.
4. Apple Valley (25)
-Close game against Eagan gives them hope come sections; they knocked off the #1 team in the section last year and could certainly do so again. Had a good season, but never could come up with that big win they needed to go higher.
5. Hastings
6. Park
7. Eastview
8. Henry Sibley
9. Rosemount

4AA
PI Wed 2/24 High Seed Home
QF Sat 2/27 Aldrich
SF Wed 3/3 St. Paul Coliseum
F Fri 3/5 St. Paul Coliseum

1. Hill-Murray (7)
-Embellished the gaudy record with a win over Moorhead, though it wasn’t enough to convince me they should be any higher--despite all the wins, they’ve only played two top-10 teams this year--a win over Burnsville before they became good, and a loss to Blaine. Now Lechner and co. get to contend with their upset-minded 4AA rivals and look to coast back to the X, where they’d likely get a top-4 seed (and probably a higher one than I’d be willing to give them).
2. White Bear Lake
-Didn’t inspire much confidence over the last two weeks of the season, but if they can get through the first two rounds, the rivalry gives them the best shot of anyone at Hill.
3. Stillwater
-Another team that’s lurking and could plausibly pull the upset; they came very close last year and will likely be out for blood again.
4. Tartan
-Played Duluth East well, which is a good sign heading into sections. Need to put last year’s first round debacle out of their minds.
5. Mounds View
6. North St. Paul
7. Roseville
8. St. Paul Como Park
9. St. Paul Saints

5AA
PI Wed 2/24 High Seed Home
QF Sat 2/27 Andover/Champlin Park
SF Tues 3/2 St. Paul Coliseum
F Fri 3/5 St. Paul Coliseum

1. Blaine (6)
-The Bengals did not take last week’s loss to Centennial kindly, as they came out and thrashed a pair of pretty good teams in preparation for the playoff run. Despite the recent loss they remain my pick to win the section. Not sure they deserve the top seed after going 0-1-1 against Cetennial while compiling a worse record in the section, but it's not the most egregious seeding error.
2. Centennial (8)
-Did what they needed to against two quality NWSC opponents, and head into sections on a 13-game unbeaten streak. Few teams are as hot as the Cougars, though they have some playoff demons to exorcise; until they can knock off Blaine, I’m going to have them as the #2-ranked team in the section.
3. Maple Grove (20)
-Ugly loss to Blaine, but the recent win over Osseo should be enough to get them the 3-seed. That’s not really much of a reward in this year’s 5AA, though. I’m not convinced that they’re a serious upset threat.
4. Osseo (18)
-Win over Elk River and close game against Centennial are good signs after a late-season swoon, reminding us they are very capable of an upset in the first round; have 2 1-goal losses to Blaine, and one to Centennial.
5. Champlin Park
6. Anoka
7. North Metro
8. Irondale
9. Coon Rapids

6AA
PI Tues 2/23 High Seed Home
QF Thurs 2/25 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 Braemar/BIG
F Wed 3/3 Target Center

1. Minnetonka (1)
-Doubts about their status as #1 have never been larger, but no team can match their body of work over the season. Have to deal with the huge target on their backs as they head into their loaded section; should be an interesting ride.
2. Wayzata (2)
-Impressive finish to the season, but tying a team isn’t quite enough justification to be moved ahead of them, and the last Hopkins win was probably closer than it should have been. At any rate, their ranking is a testament to how far they’ve come, and now a team that hasn’t gotten all that far recently will get its taste of the bright lights.
3. Eden Prairie (5)
-Closed out the season on an upswing, but did not match last year’s dominance and have to shake the stigma of being a one-trick team. Despite that, they’re plenty dangerous and it wouldn’t be a stretch to pick them to defend their title. We’ll see how much of an advantage their experience gives them, too.
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (19)
-Close loss to Holy Angels is actually a bit encouraging given the recent trends. Not in the same league as the teams above them, but more than capable of stealing one with Meyers and their talented top line.
5. Hopkins
-Very similar team to Benilde; gave some Classic Lake powers some good runs this year and should not be ignored.
6. Armstrong
7. Minneapolis East
8. Cooper
9. Minneapolis West

7AA
PI Sat 2/20 (Cloquet def. Princeton 8-2)
QF Tues 2/23 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 DECC
F Thurs 3/4 DECC

1. Elk River (13)
-Not a great final week, with a loss to Osseo and a near-escape against Champlin Park. But they’ve still got the top seed in the section with them most parity in the state, which has to count for something, and they’ve got the goalie to get them to the X. Scoring seems to be a concern of late.
2. Duluth East (11)
-Like Elk River, the goals aren’t exactly coming in bunches, but they’re the deepest team in the section and are the defending champs. If they can keep up the pressure throughout their playoff run I like their chances.
3. Andover (15)
-A disaster against Blaine in the season finale is not a good sign, but that shouldn’t write off a senior-laden team heading into the section tournament. Their biggest issue is their depth.
4. Forest Lake (22)
-Captured their first-ever share of the SEC title, which is a big step in the right direction for an improved team that could definitely cause some problems in sections. They will have to win 3 tough games, though.
5. Grand Rapids
-The most likely 5-seed to go far this year; gave Flake, DE, and ER 1-goal games. As an East fan I’m glad they’re not on the Hounds’ side of the bracket.
6. St. Francis
7. Cambridge
8. Cloquet
9. Princeton (X)

8AA
PI Sat 2/20 (River Lakes def. Becker/Big Lake 8-0)
QF Tues 2/23 High Seed Home
SF Sat 2/27 High Seed Home
F Wed 3/3 TRF/Fargo/SCSU

1. Moorhead (14)
-Close loss to Hill shows they can compete with some of the best in spite of that record. Can’t take the rest of their section lightly, though, despite their favored status.
2. Roseau (23)
-Got a nice win over Grand Rapids to steady the ship after an iffy last few weeks. Have enough explosive talent to make a run, but also could flame out, as the recent losses to Brainerd and Tech prove.
3. Brainerd (21)
-A mild re-evaluation; with all of their close games against decidedly mediocre teams, I’ve slid them down a bit. Yes, I do think they got shafted in the seeding. But at the same time, I’m not going to accept the road game as an excuse from Brainerd fans--the Warriors have beaten the Rams once this year, and the seeding should give them all the inspiration they need. Their fate is in their own hands now.
4. Bemidji
-A good dark horse pick in a section that’s down.
5. St. Cloud Tech
6. Buffalo
7. Monticello
8. River Lakes
9. Becker/Big Lake (X)


Well, there you go. Once more I must thank you (yes, you). I will never profess to be a hockey expert; I’m merely a student of this wonderful sport, and I learn something from everyone who comments and shares his or her thoughts on high school hockey, however big or small. This project is a group effort, and I have to thank you all for continuing to convince me that what I do here is worthwhile. If this ever stops being fun, I’ll stop doing it, but right now there’s no threat of that at all.

Unlike last year, I don’t really plan on issuing rankings throughout sections; I found it a bit purposeless last year, so I’ll stick by these ones for now and offer my thoughts elsewhere, unless I see cause to do otherwise. So go out and enjoy some great hockey over the next two and a half weeks, and I’ll see everyone at the X during that second weekend in March.

[shakey]

Enjoyed reading your rankings each week karl......but Burnsville at #4? Arghhh!!!!!

[Goldfishdude]

Karl, it's been a wonderfully entertaining season, to say the least. Between our PMs, our rants and discussions on the forum, and for all the threads I have had shut down , it's been a fun ride !!!!

However, none more exciting than to read your rankings weekly, and to see the feedback you get, whether from HShockeywatcherie, or HappyHockeyFanzie defending Eagan all season long - until we decided to believe him, and seeing some programs like Burnsville re-emerge, despite FSN's Kevin Gorg's affiliation with the program!

Good luck to all teams this time of the year - yes.... even White Bear.

[seek & destroy]

1. Minnetonka (22-1-2)
2. Wayzata (20-2-3)
3. Edina (18-6-1)
4. Burnsville (16-6-3)
5. Eden Prairie (20-4-1)
6. Blaine (18-4-3)
7. Hill-Murray (22-2-1)
8. Centennial (17-5-3)
9. Bloomington Jefferson (17-5-3)
10. Eagan (20-4-1)
11. Duluth East (16-5-4)
12. Holy Angels (17-7-1)
13. Elk River (16-7-2)
14. Moorhead (12-10-2)
15. Andover (16-7-2)
16. Lakeville South (16-9)
17. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7)
18. Osseo (14-8-3)
19. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-6-3)
20. Maple Grove (13-9-3)
21. Brainerd (22-3)
22. Forest Lake (17-6-2)
23. Roseau (19-5-1)
24. Woodbury (15-8-2)
25. Apple Valley (14-11)

Karl,
Great job as always. To much to copy and post so all I'll say is that your analysis most of the season has been right on. As we head into the 'do or die' part of the year, it is exciting for all of us fans to watch. There is no question that a great team from this season will likely not go to State...upsets have become the norm as it seems that all of the programs have been improving and pulling off victories that, on paper, don't seem likely.

To all the senior parents, enjoy these last games whether a win or a loss. Playing hockey in the State of Minnesota is one of the greatest things there is and only 8 teams from each level can go to State. The memories you have from mites to H.S. will last a lifetime!

[WBLHockeyfan04]

Rankings are solid as always. I would like to point out that you have the dates of the section games written down correctly, but you have them listed one day too soon for a number of games.

4AA semis and Final are Wednesday and Friday
5AA semis and Final are Tuesday and Friday

2AA and 6AA Finals are on Thursday

Just pointing put a few.

[youngblood08]

Thanks karl. Your OPINION is valued.

[karl(east)]

Latest edit: the day of the week issue has been fixed, and complete 6AA seedings have been added. I'll put in all of every other section as they come in.

[Zamman]

Rankings are solid as always. I would like to point out that you have the dates of the section games written down correctly, but you have them listed one day too soon for a number of games.

4AA semis and Final are Wednesday and Friday
5AA semis and Final are Tuesday and Friday

2AA and 6AA Finals are on Thursday

Just pointing put a few.

2AA and 6AA finals are Wed March 3, at Target Center.

Thanks Karl excellent job. My team has a tough road, but I am hoping they can pull off some upsets.

Thanks to all the players, coaches parents and cheerleaders (if you have them) we do and they are the best. This season was fun and hope everyone enjoys the playoffs.

[starmvp]

Great rankings, Burnsville is the only questions. We'll have to see how they do in playoffs.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

I would have to also agree that Burnsville at #4 is not correct.

[ubugme]

I would have to also agree that Burnsville at #4 is not correct.

I've gotta agree Fred, but if you move Burnsville down, EP's gotta go with them. We all know Hill is too high too, for only beating pantywaists and a down Merehead by one...

It doesn't bug me though, It'll all sort out.

I'm looking forward to every sectional. I think the fewest one seeds will advance than ever.

From here on out, the hot goalie wins...

Gentlemen, start your engines.....

The only team "out of it" is Duluth East....

[karl(east)]

I would have to also agree that Burnsville at #4 is not correct.

I'll admit it's a mild gamble. But they beat EP who's right behind them, and they coasted by both Eagan and Jefferson, who are also in the top 10. They also heavily outshot Wayzata in a narrow loss (their only loss since December). Over their last 15 games, only 2 AA teams have better records (Brainerd and Hill), and they both play easier schedules. Much easier, in Brainerd's case.

I've been on the Blaze bandwagon for a while now, and they have yet to give me a reason to get off.

[HappyHockeyFan]

I would have to also agree that Burnsville at #4 is not correct.

I'll admit it's a mild gamble. But they beat EP who's right behind them, and they coasted by both Eagan and Jefferson, who are also in the top 10. They also heavily outshot Wayzata in a narrow loss (their only loss since December). Over their last 15 games, only 2 AA teams have better records (Brainerd and Hill), and they both play easier schedules. Much easier, in Brainerd's case.

I've been on the Blaze bandwagon for a while now, and they have yet to give me a reason to get off.

I think your dead on with Burnsville Karl, they have played some very solid hockey second half and deserve the #4 ranking.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Oh ya Karl, just noticed this, I think Eagan might be ranked a little high too.

[ubugme]

Oh ya Karl, just noticed this, I think Eagan might be ranked a little high too.

Ok, this bugs me. I agree with Fred AGAIN....

[karl(east)]

Final edit: all of the section seedings are now in, along with one or two added comments where the seeding did not go as expected (5AA).

[shakey]

Oh ya Karl, just noticed this, I think Eagan might be ranked a little high too.

Ok, this bugs me. I agree with Fred AGAIN....

Now that you mention it, Eagan at #10 is lofty.

[LASERBLUE135]

[quote="karl(east)"]
Big favorites...
1. Minnetonka (22-1-2)
2. Wayzata (20-2-3)
A definite threat...
3. Edina (18-6-1)
4. Burnsville (16-6-3)
5. Eden Prairie (20-4-1)
6. Blaine (18-4-3)
7. Hill-Murray (22-2-1)
Could be trouble...
8. Centennial (17-5-3)
9. Bloomington Jefferson (17-5-3)
10. Eagan (20-4-1)
11. Duluth East (16-5-4)
12. Holy Angels (17-7-1)
13. Elk River (16-7-2)
The rest, lets face it, they can't compete with above.
14. Moorhead (12-10-2)
15. Andover (16-7-2)
16. Lakeville South (16-9)
17. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-7)
18. Osseo (14-8-3)
19. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-6-3)
20. Maple Grove (13-9-3)
21. Brainerd (22-3)
22. Forest Lake (17-6-2)
23. Roseau (19-5-1)
24. Woodbury (15-8-2)
25. Apple Valley (14-11)

[karl(east)]

Nice breakdown, laserblue, I can't say I disagree with it at all. The lower teams might be worth an upset or two--Moorhead was #13 at this point last year, only one spot above where they are now--but I definitely see a gap between Elk river and above/Moorhead and below.

Re: Eagan. They've only lost 3 games to MSHSL competition, and they also beat or tied every one of those 3 teams at some point this year as well. The schedule is very easy, yes, but they did what they needed to, and they do have a huge win over a decent Hopkins team. I'm not convinced they'll win the section; they're young and may still be a year away. But they do deserve a pretty high ranking.

[ubugme]

It bugs me giving Edina the 3 slot...

7-5-2 since the first of the year? OT win at home against 'Tonka is nice, but the home loss to Cretin and tie against Hopkins kinda offset that win...

[karl(east)]

It bugs me giving Edina the 3 slot...

7-5-2 since the first of the year? OT win at home against 'Tonka is nice, but the home loss to Cretin and tie against Hopkins kinda offset that win...

Perhaps...but 5 of the 6 losses are to the teams ahead of them, 4 of those by 1 goal. They beat EP and they beat Blaine twice, so it's hard to argue those two should be in front of them. Maybe one could argue Burnsville should go higher since they played before Burnsville was good, but even I think Burnsville at #3 is pushing it.

It's easy to pick out single teams that seem to high, but we then have to think about who would replace them at that spot, and if they are really more deserving or not.

[playerplayer1]

Enjoyed reading your rankings each week karl......but Burnsville at #4? Arghhh!!!!!

14-1-1 in there last 16 in a conference with 4 top ten teams, and allowing a mere 16 goals in the last 16 games. I tend to think karl is right on with that one. Ask EP, Eagan and Jefferson faithful.

[shakey]

Enjoyed reading your rankings each week karl......but Burnsville at #4? Arghhh!!!!!

14-1-1 in there last 16 in a conference with 4 top ten teams, and allowing a mere 16 goals in those 16 games. I tend to think karl is right on with that one. Ask EP, Eagan and Jefferson faithful.

I am the EP faithful!

[ubugme]

It bugs me giving Edina the 3 slot...

7-5-2 since the first of the year? OT win at home against 'Tonka is nice, but the home loss to Cretin and tie against Hopkins kinda offset that win...

Perhaps...but 5 of the 6 losses are to the teams ahead of them, 4 of those by 1 goal. They beat EP and they beat Blaine twice, so it's hard to argue those two should be in front of them. Maybe one could argue Burnsville should go higher since they played before Burnsville was good, but even I think Burnsville at #3 is pushing it.

I thought we already decided Burnsville and EP were to high?

And I've been meaning to mention Blaine... They kind of bug me at 6...

[MNHockeyFan]

Rankings are fun, but if you're a player or a coach, it's time to focus on your next game and forget about where you're ranked.