AA Preseason Rankings and Preview

[karl(east)]

Welcome to the third season of my rankings. I begin, as has become the norm, with a few statements.

-First and foremost, I do this to generate healthy debate. They are offered in the spirit of fun, and with the hope that it contributes something to our understanding of MN HS hockey. Always try to keep that perspective.
-On a related note, I’ve been made a moderator on here since my last set of rankings, which means I now have a little more discretion as to what violates this “healthy spirit.” Please do not let this stop you from asking questions or giving your own opinion on what I’ve done. Personal attacks will, of course, be frowned upon.
-I also understand that I am in a somewhat delicate position as I act simultaneously as an unabashed fan of one of the better teams in the state and a ranker who tries to be objective. I’m very aware of this dilemma, and I do try very hard to not let it affect the rankings. As evidence that I can do this reasonably well, I stand by my rankings of East the past two years.
-As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m not a huge believer in preseason rankings, but I do think they have value in teaching us what we over- and under-value heading into the year. Last year, for example, I underrated teams that had quality bantam crops coming in. So this year I’ve tried to adjust for that in a reasonable manner (but without over-compensating--these kids do have a lot to prove at the high school level). They are also a necessary starting basis for the first few weeks, when teams haven’t played many games. At the end of the year I’ll again look back at these and see where improvement can be made.
-An added note for the preseason rankings: they probably overvalue young teams that might struggle a bit at the beginning; I’m assuming these teams will put it together by March. We’ll see if that’s a smart strategy or not.

Weekly Sunday rankings will begin Sunday, December 5th. By then nearly all the teams will have played a few games; I don’t see much point in re-ranking before then. I may make some sort of revision if something unexpected happens (a last-minute defection to juniors, a major injury, etc.).

Now, here we go.

1. Edina
-The reigning state champions suffered no losses of serious magnitude and, with the incredible depth in the organization, simply do not have any weaknesses. The keys lie in keeping the machine running at a high level and making sure they utilize their depth, which has been an issue with Edina teams in the past. With no compelling reason to bump them from the top spot, they will stay here until someone gives me a reason to move them.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. Buffalo, Sat. 11/27 vs. #4 Wayzata or #9 Maple Grove
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat 12/4 vs. #11 Eagan

2. Hill-Murray
-My #2 is another program in green simply gushing with talent. There are a few holes to fill on defense, but defense tends not to be a concern on Lechner-coached teams. They may not have quite as many experienced top-end players as Edina, but in a head-to-head matchup with the Hornets I like their chances. Hill has beefed up its schedule some, and two of its first three games will be among the more important for ranking purposes.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. #10 Burnsville
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Duluth Marshall, Sat 12/4 at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

3. Eden Prairie
-With the Rau drama behind them, we can rest assured that we’ll get to see one of the most talented classes in recent memory make one last run at a title. The star power and the experience are there, but some pertinent questions remain--they need the players in the supporting cast to step up and share some of the load with the likes of Rau and Molenaar. If they can develop their lower lines enough to match the other top contenders, they’ll be the favorite for the state title. If they can’t, it’s doubtful they’ll even make it out of 6AA. They also move out of the old Lake and into the punishing new Lake, though they’ve kept most of the upper-level former Lake teams on their schedule, making for perhaps the toughest one I’ve ever seen. I’m usually a big advocate of strong schedules, but I do wonder if there’s a point at which a schedule becomes too difficult and demanding. We’ll see.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson

4. Wayzata
-One could easily argue that this team has the most raw talent of any in the state; we shouldn’t forget their incredible regular season last year, despite how it ended. However, that title hasn’t been worth much in recent years, which makes me suspect we tend to overrate sheer star power. Wayzata doesn’t exactly have a history of stepping up on the biggest stage, either. Playing in the state’s toughest conference and section will again be a serious test; the schedule over the first few weeks is very demanding, so we may learn what they’re made of very quickly.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #9 Maple Grove, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at Centennial, Sat 12/4 vs. #5 Duluth East

5. Duluth East
-Return a healthy portion of a team that improved markedly last season and enjoy the additions of numerous players from arguably the top bantam team in the state in 09-10. Their youth may be an issue, but it’s hard to argue with the depth and potential on hand. The schedule is a little weaker than usual, which gives the early game against Wayzata some added importance. Right now, I think they’re a little ways behind the top four.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Cambridge-Isanti, Sat 12/4 at #4 Wayzata

6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-Last year’s very young team was exposed at times, but now that they’ve paid their dues, they may be ready for a run. Their front line talent is as good as anyone’s, but depth may be an issue against other elite teams. The December schedule is considerably harder than the rest of the year; the second game (against Hill-Murray) may prove an important bellwether. If enough goes right they have a chance to be the most complete team in 6AA, which is saying something.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. St. Cloud Tech, Sat 12/4 vs. #2 Hill-Murray

7. Minnetonka
-Last year’s runners-up look to pull an Edina: with the vaunted stars of the Class of 2010 now gone, Tonka will have to rely on its depth and experience. The program returns a number of talented forwards should be deep enough to prevent any serious drop-off, though they will definitely take their lumps this year. If the defense solidifies by the end of the regular season, look out. They start with a couple of northern teams at home; the schedule gets harder as the year goes on.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Fri 12/3 vs. Hibbing, Sat 12/4 vs. #12 Roseau

8. Apple Valley
-AV has generated a lot of hype thanks to its spectacular 1-2 punch, but I’m not ready to lock this team into the elite quite yet. Recent state champions have shown that depth tends to win out over star power, and we also should remember that this team lost 13 games last season, some of them by ugly margins. All that said, this is not a 2-man show; there are some good supporting players, and they should certainly be the favorite in the newly created South Suburban. They start their season off with a pair of huge road games against the traditional powers of the former Lake conference.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 at #13 Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs 12/2 at #3 Eden Prairie

9. Maple Grove
-With a power vacuum in their section and conference, this is the year for Maple Grove to step up and establish themselves as a force in MN HS hockey. While they may not boast any widely recognized superstars yet, they have so many impressive individual resumes that they can’t be considered underdogs anymore. The Wayzata Turkey Trot will be a major early challenge before they slide into the NWSC schedule.
Week 1: Wayzata Turkey Trot--Fri 11/26 vs. #4 Wayzata, Sat 11/27 vs. #1 Edina or Buffalo
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Anoka, Sat 12/4 at Andover

10. Burnsville
-Played as well as any team down the stretch last year and return their star goalie Bodhi Enghum. There are no huge standouts in front of him, but there are definitely more than enough capable players. The early schedule is brutal--we’ll get a very good idea of what they’re made of in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 at #2 Hill-Murray
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 at #1 Edina

11. Eagan
-Burst onto the scene with a strong season last year, and most of the corps that led the charge is back. They’ve beefed up the non-conference schedule some with the addition of Edina and Minnetonka early in the year, which should help them overcome some of last year’s schedule concerns.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Thurs 12/2 vs. Prior Lake, Sat 12/4 at #1 Edina

12. Roseau
-A bit thin, but like most Roseau teams they have a couple of stars who should be able to carry the load and lead them through a relatively weak section. The important storyline here is the much-improved schedule; the Rams took some big steps in scheduling a bunch of major opponents. We’ll get a much better idea of where they truly stand than we normally do, and hopefully they’ll get more out of it than they would have beating up on, say, North Dakota teams.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Thief River Falls, Fri 12/3 at Blaine, Sat 12/4 at #7 Minnetonka

13. Bloomington Jefferson
-Lost the core of the group that carried them the past few years, but the pipeline remains relatively strong, so they could sneak up on some people with a good year. That said, if they couldn’t get by Edina last year, I don’t see how they could this year. Nothing comes easy in the early going; the opener against Apple Valley has huge SSC implications, and though they’re no longer in a conference with Eden Prairie, I doubt the intensity will be in any way diminished.
Week 1: Idle
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. #8 Apple Valley, Sat 12/4 vs. #3 Eden Prairie

14. White Bear Lake
-Like their primary opponents for the SEC crown, the Bears revolve around two top forwards. However, they’ll need a lot more than flashiness out of a pair of individuals to get past Hill in 4AA. Need to regroup and find some discipline; recent history both on and off the ice has been too tumultuous for a team trying to exorcise a lot of demons. No significant challenges in their first two games.
Week 1: Sat 11/27 vs. Rochester Century
Week 2: Tues 11/30 vs. Hastings

15. Lakeville South
-As with WBL at #14 this might be a bit of a stretch, but I think it’s very hard to distinguish the teams in spots 14 through 18 right now--a lot of pretty good teams with a couple of star players, all with chances at decent seasons but not deep enough to really be in the state title conversation. The loss of Osterberg keeps LVS from being a serious threat, but there’s enough talent left to make them the 1AA favorite and a tough South Suburban opponent on any given night. Don’t start until the 9th of December, and the opening schedule is very tough.
Weeks 1 and 2: Idle

The Next Ten
Holy Angels
-Will certainly miss a number of the big players off last year’s team, but writing AHA off prematurely would be a mistake; there’s still a decent amount of talent flowing through the program, and they’ve got a couple of stars who should give them a chance at a few upsets. As usual, they do not start until late--their first game is December 16th.
Forest Lake
-A strong junior class has put them on the map and made them a force to be reckoned with in the SEC. Have a lot to prove against the real top-end teams, though, and the schedule does not offer many such opportunities. Very important 7AA game to start the year against Grand Rapids.
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Will rely on the same core that has carried them in past years, and in this year’s SEC that’s enough make them one of the co-favorites. Open the season with a string of good-but-not-great teams.
Blaine
-Lost just about everyone of consequence not named Brodzinski from last year’s team, which wasn’t all that deep to begin with. However, this is one of the stronger programs out there, and they’ve got enough to still be relevant in 5AA and the NWSC. Interesting first test as they invite Roseau down to the north metro.
Moorhead
-Lost a lot of the core that drove the 2009 title run, and now find themselves in a transition phase; there are a lot of bodies to replace, but there are also a few very talented players who should be ready to step up and carry the tradition forward. If they grow up quickly enough they can certainly take 8AA back. Schedule is pretty difficult, but they don’t play any metro teams before their holiday tournament.
Centennial
-Lost a lot to graduation, but like their rival Blaine, they are a deep program that should be able to remain near the top of the NWSC. Face a tough opening challenge against Wayzata. This feels a bit low, but I’ll go with it for now.
Grand Rapids
-Should start to make some noise on the state scene again after a 3-year hiatus. They have a strong goalie and an interesting mix of decent returning players and a rising Bantams, but it’s hard to tell at this point just how much of the gap they’ll be able to close. Might have the most important first week of anyone, with two road games with major 7AA seeding implications.
Elk River
-Return an excellent goalie, but very few skaters; will have to grow up in a hurry to maintain relevance in the NWSC and 7AA. Should be able to pile up a few season-opening wins.
Stillwater
-Look to remain competitive as usual in the SEC, but we’re still waiting for this program to take another step forward. Big first game at Cretin.
Brainerd
-Return the offensive stars of last year’s surprise run, but they’ll need to shore up the defense to have another shot at Moorhead and Roseau in 7AA. Should be able to rack up a gaudy record again thanks to a weak schedule.


And the section-by-section run-through, with possible contenders listed:
1AA
15 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-The weakest of the AA sections was sapped by a large number of defections this offseason. The Lakevilles have deep enough programs that they should be able to be decent teams in the South Suburban. The outlook for the teams further south remains grim, though.

2AA
1 Edina
10 Burnsville
13 Bloom. Jefferson
(16) Holy Angels
-The defending champs once again sit atop the section, and the road to State might actually be the easiest they’ve faced in recent memory. That hardly means it’s a pushover--Burnsville is still a very good team, and Jefferson and AHA could pull it off with some luck--but there is a clear number one.

3AA
8 Apple Valley
11 Eagan
(18) Cretin-Derham Hall
East Ridge
-AV established themselves as the frontrunners for this year and (assuming no defections) the foreseeable future with their section crown last year. Eagan is talented enough to give them a good run--the two went to OT in the section semis last year--and Cretin will probably be in the mix too, but this section is AV’s to lose. In general it’s a section on the rise, with quite a bit of young talent; we’ll also see how the Woodbury school split continues to shake out.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
14 White Bear Lake
(24) Stillwater
-No reason not to expect more of the same at this point. WBL has a decent senior class, but has a lot to prove if it wants to narrow the gulf between Hill and the rest of the section, and Stillwater also has some work to do before they move up to the next level.

5AA
9 Maple Grove
(19) Blaine
(21) Centennial
-After being one of the state’s better sections for a while, 5AA looks to be in for a drop-off as the traditional two powers regroup and a new one rises to center stage. On paper it’s Maple Grove’s to lose, though Blaine has some inertia on it side. And who knows, maybe the enigmatic Centennial, which always seems to be a contender but still has only 1 state tourney trip, will put things together now that the expectations have shifted.

6AA
3 Eden Prairie
4 Wayzata
6 Benilde
7 Minnetonka
-Once again the state’s most loaded section with four top-ten teams. Unlike a number of the other section races, this one looks pretty open and has plenty of intrigue. The three west metro publics will all play each other at least twice this year, and now that 3 of the 4 are in the St. Louis Park holiday tourney there’s a chance there will be a lot of games between them. Time will tell if this helps sort them out or only makes the section even more of a mess.

7AA
5 Duluth East
(17) Forest Lake
(22) Grand Rapids
(23) Elk River
Cloquet
-Another section with a large gap (on paper) between the top team and those chasing it. Elk River has a strong goalie but must replace nearly all of its scoring punch; Forest Lake has one talented class in need of some support, and though Grand Rapids and Cloquet will be on the rise again, they will still be very raw. There is an awful lot of young talent here; whichever team gets the most out of its sophomores will be in a very good position.

8AA
12 Roseau
(20) Moorhead
(25) Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech
-Roseau is the favorite, but Moorhead has some talented players and will be right there as usual should the Rams falter; the results in recent years tell us the regular season meetings between these two don’t really matter when the playoffs roll around. Brainerd returns some quality offensive parts but almost no defense from last year’s surprise run, and St. Cloud Tech is a decent sleeper pick.

Other Storylines and Closing Comments
-It’s been a while since we’ve had anything we could call a “dynasty” at the statewide level. But with the last three state champions as the preseason top 3, we have a decent chance of seeing a team lay some sort of claim to that title at the end of the year.
-The new Lake Conference. The biggest trend in the past few years has been increasing domination by the giant west metro programs, and now four of the biggest are united in one conference. This means we’re probably going to see more losses out of the top teams than in the past, making for some ranking headaches and psychological questions about the toll of such a schedule.

There are a lot of great games over the first couple weeks--more than usual, I’d guess--so head out and enjoy some.

I will be traveling extensively over the next week and a half but will do my best to check in from time to time so I can respond to questions and comments.

[karl(east)]

Followthepuck has its rankings up now, too, with some lengthy descriptions...there's plenty I agree with, some things I respectfully disagree with, and then there's his choice for #8 in the state.

[MrBoDangles]

I see it being a two horse race between St. Cloud Tech and Brainerd for the 8AA title. Have to give the edge to Tech though.......
Moorhead lost almost everyone to graduation and Roseau is very thin after their first line.

[east hockey]

Followthepuck has its rankings up now, too, with some lengthy descriptions...there's plenty I agree with, some things I respectfully disagree with, and then there's his choice for #8 in the state.

He's picking them to win 8AA? Bold.

Lee

[HockeyMN1]

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

[karl(east)]

Followthepuck has its rankings up now, too, with some lengthy descriptions...there's plenty I agree with, some things I respectfully disagree with, and then there's his choice for #8 in the state.

He's picking them to win 8AA? Bold.

Lee

Very bold. I could see putting them in the upper teens, but they've got one strong line and return practically nothing on defense. That hardly distinguishes them in that section. St. Cloud Tech intrigues me, but they have a lot to prove.

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

I'll throw out some more stuff to defend the Hounds, then.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.
-On a similar note, they had 8 players make Advanced 17 or 16 section team, or the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.) Hill had 9, Edina also had 8, everyone else had less.
In relation to the teams below them:
-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.
-East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.
-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Followthepuck has its rankings up now, too, with some lengthy descriptions...there's plenty I agree with, some things I respectfully disagree with, and then there's his choice for #8 in the state.

He's picking them to win 8AA? Bold.

Lee

Very bold. I could see putting them in the upper teens, but they've got one strong line and return practically nothing on defense. That hardly distinguishes them in that section. St. Cloud Tech intrigues me, but they have a lot to prove.

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

I'll throw out some more stuff to defend the Hounds, then.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.
-On a similar note, they had 8 players make Advanced 17 or 16 section team, or the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.) Hill had 9, Edina also had 8, everyone else had less.
In relation to the teams below them:
-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.
-East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.
-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

I would have to disagree with you on East having more depth than EP and you will find that out as the season goes on. I'll leave it at that (but you'll see)

[HockeyMN1]

He's picking them to win 8AA? Bold.

Lee

Very bold. I could see putting them in the upper teens, but they've got one strong line and return practically nothing on defense. That hardly distinguishes them in that section. St. Cloud Tech intrigues me, but they have a lot to prove.

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

I'll throw out some more stuff to defend the Hounds, then.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.
-On a similar note, they had 8 players make Advanced 17 or 16 section team, or the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.) Hill had 9, Edina also had 8, everyone else had less.
In relation to the teams below them:
-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.
-East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.
-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

I would have to disagree with you on East having more depth than EP and you will find that out as the season goes on. I'll leave it at that (but you'll see)

Yea people say EP has no depth but that's not true at all. Last year Rogge and Erickson took up the second line production from the super class but that doesn't mean there aren't a ton of great players ready to take their place. Behind Rau off the top of my head we have Curt Rau, Molenaar, both Raths, Gerdes, McCartan, and Seeler and watch out for a sophomore named John Sullivan who was a huge scorer in bantams last year that could possibly work his way into the forward lines through this year and make a solid impact. So that's eight guys behind Kyle Rau that are extremely talented.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

Karl tickling the top 10 but not a 5 team (at least early), With a 50 point fwd and Welinski back i might go with the 5 pick.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.

2 of the 5 should have been replaced by Jared Thomas of Hermantown and Travis Underwood of Grand Rapids. Call it the Randolph effect of getting 5 players on Elite 1. To Mike's credit he lobbies hard for his kids, like him or hate him he does what coaches need to do and promotes his kids.

the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.)

The goalie that made it from East is not even close to as good as the Shepard kid out of Grand Rapids Bantam A team. Apples and oranges in comparison, again the Randolph effect.

-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.

Agree with you here to a point but not yet sold on Moore kid helping out to the extent you expect. I think the kid is a bit hyped but you can go a long way at east being a better than average player.

East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.

I agree that is taking the highly tauted metro team to the woodshed! This helps your cause for the 5 spot a lot.

-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

I agree with you on this note but this team can be exposed by a better puck controlling team. I will give you this though few control it better than east does.

Karl I do agree with you on EP Fred needs to go look at last years stats to know that EP was a 1 line team when it comes to scoring. Granted that line was amazing but 2 of the 3 graduated. Which leads to who picks up the slack to help out Rau? Will soon find out.
Job well done with the picks though Karl they are a very solid review and far better than FTP. Keep up the great work.

[dlhhockey]

[The goalie that made it from East is not even close to as good as the Shepard kid out of Grand Rapids Bantam A team. Apples and oranges in comparison, again the Randolph effect.
[quote]

Team was decided last night. That goalie is on JV. The varsity goaltending should do just fine - two seniors and a junior.

[observer]

a ton of great players

There are no great players coming into EP to plug any holes. When the current senior class graduates they're facing a couple year drought.

[SoftMitts]

I will defend Karl and say that DE had the best BA team in the state last year. That will help the hounds out a lot. I have no problem with putting DE where they are in the preseason rankings.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Hate to argue with you Karl but your beloved Hounds at 5 is a little bit of a stretch.

Karl tickling the top 10 but not a 5 team (at least early), With a 50 point fwd and Welinski back i might go with the 5 pick.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.

2 of the 5 should have been replaced by Jared Thomas of Hermantown and Travis Underwood of Grand Rapids. Call it the Randolph effect of getting 5 players on Elite 1. To Mike's credit he lobbies hard for his kids, like him or hate him he does what coaches need to do and promotes his kids.

the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.)

The goalie that made it from East is not even close to as good as the Shepard kid out of Grand Rapids Bantam A team. Apples and oranges in comparison, again the Randolph effect.

-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.

Agree with you here to a point but not yet sold on Moore kid helping out to the extent you expect. I think the kid is a bit hyped but you can go a long way at east being a better than average player.

East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.

I agree that is taking the highly tauted metro team to the woodshed! This helps your cause for the 5 spot a lot.

-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

I agree with you on this note but this team can be exposed by a better puck controlling team. I will give you this though few control it better than east does.

Karl I do agree with you on EP Fred needs to go look at last years stats to know that EP was a 1 line team when it comes to scoring. Granted that line was amazing but 2 of the 3 graduated. Which leads to who picks up the slack to help out Rau? Will soon find out.
Job well done with the picks though Karl they are a very solid review and far better than FTP. Keep up the great work.

Mr. Northwoods. EP loses only two of its forwards from last year. Everyone else is back. Throw in the fact that EP will gain one back from last year that was out all year from a season ending injury after game one. Net loss 1 forward. Do you think EP can get one or two forwards to step up............EP also has juniors and sophmores.........maybe one or two can step up.......I would think the answer to that would be yes.

[gerryodrowski]

I believe that those predicting that EP will rely solely on Kyle Rau for offense will eat their words. This includes Doug from FTP who claims that Rau will need to carry the team on his back to get them to St. Paul this March. Doug, please stop whining about how busy, tired and broke you are and get a clue.

[gerryodrowski]

Quote:

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.


More depth than EP.....seriously?

[formerplayer37]

Very bold. I could see putting them in the upper teens, but they've got one strong line and return practically nothing on defense. That hardly distinguishes them in that section. St. Cloud Tech intrigues me, but they have a lot to prove.
I'll throw out some more stuff to defend the Hounds, then.

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.
-On a similar note, they had 8 players make Advanced 17 or 16 section team, or the Adv. 15 national team. (I used only the national team since 15s, who are mostly sophomores, will not make as much of an impact, and the districts aren't that even talent-wise.) Hill had 9, Edina also had 8, everyone else had less.
In relation to the teams below them:
-East is clearly deeper, and a bit more settled on defense, than Benilde.
-Minnetonka has a lot of holes to fill, and some of their big players have to prove they weren't just riding on the coattails of those 4 D1 players.
-East beat Apple Valley 7-1 relatively late in the season last year. That was probably something of a fluke, but it's worth taking into account. As I mentioned in their comment, I'm not completely sold on AV.
-Again, these are geared towards the end of the season--since East is young they will probably not start like a #5 team, but I do think they can end up there. I think this group is better than last year's, which finished 6th in the end-of-season rankings.

I would have to disagree with you on East having more depth than EP and you will find that out as the season goes on. I'll leave it at that (but you'll see)

Yea people say EP has no depth but that's not true at all. Last year Rogge and Erickson took up the second line production from the super class but that doesn't mean there aren't a ton of great players ready to take their place. Behind Rau off the top of my head we have Curt Rau, Molenaar, both Raths, Gerdes, McCartan, and Seeler and watch out for a sophomore named John Sullivan who was a huge scorer in bantams last year that could possibly work his way into the forward lines through this year and make a solid impact. So that's eight guys behind Kyle Rau that are extremely talented.

Sounds like someone is "tooting their own horn"

Unless you're from EP you have no idea who some of these guys are. Where were they during sections last year? Im gonna give the hounds the edge in this one until I see otherwise.

[dlhhockey]

Quote:

-They had 5 players in the Elite League--only Edina, Hill, EP, and Benilde can match that. Sure, none of them are superstars, but I don't think you'll find anyone who questions East's depth--it is certainly better than BSM or EP's.


More depth than EP.....seriously?

Good discussion, but way to early to be digging your heels in the sand. Some good scrimmages coming up on Saturday in Duluth with EP, Centennial, Blaine and Jefferson coming to town to play one hour each against DE and each other.

[Guru20]

People don't get so worked up about Karl's opinions on the rankings. Disagree, make comments, make your points, but keep in mind he is not attacking. Right or wrong people are gonna have different opinions.

A few of my thoughts after seeing the rankings and reading the responses:

Very nice job Karl, obviously a lot of time and thought put into it. Keep up the good work!

Duluth East will be one of the deeper teams in the state, yes I believe deeper then Eden Prairie. They did have one of the top 3 Bantam A teams that I saw last year, a few that can step in on the top 3 lines if need be. Also, a few JV players/4th line guys from last year that I believe can flourish in an expanded role.

I think it is a very legitimate question to wonder who is going to score besides Rau at Eden Prairie. I believe they are one of the top teams in the state regardless. I know how good defensively they are with Moleenar, Seeler, and Rau, and Moleenar is a huge threat offensively. They lost Rogge, Erickson, Gerdes, and Loken. I did not see any Bantams from last year that I believe can play on the top 2 lines this year. What 2 forwards are going to play with Rau? McCartan? Rath? Who does that leave for their 2nd line?

I believe that Benilde is rated too high. Steinhauser, Horn, Besse, Horton, and Daly is an unreal 1st line if they all played together. Last year they played only 4 defensemen, and even put Patterson back on D for the penalty kill when Horton or someone else was in the box. Who is going to be their 3rd, 4th, and 5th Defensemen? The biggest question may be Jecha's play, he may end up being very good, but they were questionable defensively last year with one of the best goalies in the state.

I think that Minnetonka is going to struggle more then people think. Still a very good team. There forwards overall may even be better then last year, even with losing Gardiner. They lost 3 division I defensemen! It is amazing how much a good defensemen can change a HS game, and then to lose 3 of them. It will be interesting to see if they can replace Gardiner, Prochno, Holl, Hesketh, Lundquist, Thornberg, and Rossman.

Apple Valley was a good team last year, just over .500, no big wins during the regular season. Are they more like the team during the regular season? Or are they more like the team that got hot at the right time last year? Fasching, Michaelson, Pedrie, Smith, all very good. Not a knock on them for playing great down the stretch, but will they be a lot better being a year older, and without Robson, Fischer, and Sikich.

Eagan beat Apple Valley twice last year, and were the better team throughout the regular season. I don't think they are in the top 10 this year. Still could beat any team on a given night, and talented enough to win the section with Zajac, Merchant, Kuchera, Boedker, etc How will they adjust without Fodor, Broders, Much, Lutz, A Merchant, Haun, and Lacher?

Jefferson is a huge question mark to me. My opinion is they are not a top 15 team. I don't think that Siiro, Nielsen, Roisum, and Freshchi can match what Herbert, Pauluk, Faust, Dietzler, and Knight brought to them last year.

[bloody bar down]

Wow.. A few of those guys he listed have graduated for Brainerd. All that is left is:

Archibald, Pohlkamp, McLain and Fussy that played last year. They added Aaron Rich, Motchenbacher played some at D and Stearns play in 6 games at Goalie. I thought that Karl was being generous, but ranked 8th...Wow

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

People don't get so worked up about Karl's opinions on the rankings. Disagree, make comments, make your points, but keep in mind he is not attacking. Right or wrong people are gonna have different opinions.

A few of my thoughts after seeing the rankings and reading the responses:

Very nice job Karl, obviously a lot of time and thought put into it. Keep up the good work!

Duluth East will be one of the deeper teams in the state, yes I believe deeper then Eden Prairie. They did have one of the top 3 Bantam A teams that I saw last year, a few that can step in on the top 3 lines if need be. Also, a few JV players/4th line guys from last year that I believe can flourish in an expanded role.

I think it is a very legitimate question to wonder who is going to score besides Rau at Eden Prairie. I believe they are one of the top teams in the state regardless. I know how good defensively they are with Moleenar, Seeler, and Rau, and Moleenar is a huge threat offensively. They lost Rogge, Erickson, Gerdes, and Loken. I did not see any Bantams from last year that I believe can play on the top 2 lines this year. What 2 forwards are going to play with Rau? McCartan? Rath? Who does that leave for their 2nd line?

I believe that Benilde is rated too high. Steinhauser, Horn, Besse, Horton, and Daly is an unreal 1st line if they all played together. Last year they played only 4 defensemen, and even put Patterson back on D for the penalty kill when Horton or someone else was in the box. Who is going to be their 3rd, 4th, and 5th Defensemen? The biggest question may be Jecha's play, he may end up being very good, but they were questionable defensively last year with one of the best goalies in the state.

I think that Minnetonka is going to struggle more then people think. Still a very good team. There forwards overall may even be better then last year, even with losing Gardiner. They lost 3 division I defensemen! It is amazing how much a good defensemen can change a HS game, and then to lose 3 of them. It will be interesting to see if they can replace Gardiner, Prochno, Holl, Hesketh, Lundquist, Thornberg, and Rossman.

Apple Valley was a good team last year, just over .500, no big wins during the regular season. Are they more like the team during the regular season? Or are they more like the team that got hot at the right time last year? Fasching, Michaelson, Pedrie, Smith, all very good. Not a knock on them for playing great down the stretch, but will they be a lot better being a year older, and without Robson, Fischer, and Sikich.

Eagan beat Apple Valley twice last year, and were the better team throughout the regular season. I don't think they are in the top 10 this year. Still could beat any team on a given night, and talented enough to win the section with Zajac, Merchant, Kuchera, Boedker, etc How will they adjust without Fodor, Broders, Much, Lutz, A Merchant, Haun, and Lacher?

Jefferson is a huge question mark to me. My opinion is they are not a top 15 team. I don't think that Siiro, Nielsen, Roisum, and Freshchi can match what Herbert, Pauluk, Faust, Dietzler, and Knight brought to them last year.

Your right. EP is very thin and will suck. Where did Gerdes go?

[TTpuckster]

by the way, Let's Play Hockey just came out with their preseason rankings:

High School Boys AA

1 EDINA
2 Wayzata
3 Eden Prairie
4 Hill-Murray
5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6 Duluth East
7 Apple Valley
8 Minnetonka
9 Eagan
10 Maple Grove
11 Burnsville
12 Roseau
13 Jefferson
14 Blaine
15 Holy Angels
16 Moorhead
17 White Bear Lake
18 Centennial
19 Elk River
20 Cretin-Derham Hall

Just to stimulate some more discussion

[karl(east)]

Great discussion; thanks, everyone.

I actually have very few beefs with the LPH rankings...not sure if that's a good or bad thing. Or maybe all their voters just based their rankings off of me...

On EP's depth: Their 2nd and 3rd lines definitely aren't bad. In fact, their strength is what separates them from other teams with a handful of elite players (like, say, Apple Valley or Benilde). They match other teams' good lines and do many positive things for their team while on the ice. But the fact remains that, though those players do plenty of good things, they haven't proven they can score. If you look at all the recent state champions, they've all had several lines that can score. That's why Edina and Hill are ahead of EP.

I think East can easily roll 3 strong lines this year, perhaps 4 if they want to. Guru makes some good points there, and he also backs up some of my leeriness about Benilde and Tonka. East may not be the flashiest team on earth, but in recent years those deep teams that can roll 3-4 good lines have generally been the ones that have done well, while thin teams riding superstars have flopped.

The discussion of EP reminds me some of the '07-08 East team that had an excellent first line (Tardy, Flaherty, Johnson) and decent 2nd and 3rd lines that held their own but couldn't score much. That team flopped in the 7AA semis. I'm not saying that will happen to EP--I do think 10-11 EP is better--but it shows some of the danger of riding one line.

Re: Northwoods Oldtimer
-Yes, I too was surprised by some of the elite league selections from East. But if we look at what they did...two made the Bauer NIT team and clearly belonged; one was their leading scorer last year; another made Elite League last year so got a free berth this year. That leaves one surprise, but based on the stats he appears to have held his own. And "Randolph Effect" or not, they did participate, which can only help their development. And even if we assume a couple of those Advanced players are stretches, they still have an awful lot of them.

I agree East can be exposed by a better puck controlling team, but right now, who's on that list? Edina and Hill-Murray for sure. Perhaps Wayzata, though East did outshoot them heavily in their meeting last year (a game Wayzata won in OT). But anyone else?

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Great discussion; thanks, everyone.

I actually have very few beefs with the LPH rankings...not sure if that's a good or bad thing. Or maybe all their voters just based their rankings off of me...

On EP's depth: Their 2nd and 3rd lines definitely aren't bad. In fact, their strength is what separates them from other teams with a handful of elite players (like, say, Apple Valley or Benilde). They match other teams' good lines and do many positive things for their team while on the ice. But the fact remains that, though those players do plenty of good things, they haven't proven they can score. If you look at all the recent state champions, they've all had several lines that can score. That's why Edina and Hill are ahead of EP.

I think East can easily roll 3 strong lines this year, perhaps 4 if they want to. Guru makes some good points there, and he also backs up some of my leeriness about Benilde and Tonka. East may not be the flashiest team on earth, but in recent years those deep teams that can roll 3-4 good lines have generally been the ones that have done well, while thin teams riding superstars have flopped.

The discussion of EP reminds me some of the '07-08 East team that had an excellent first line (Tardy, Flaherty, Johnson) and decent 2nd and 3rd lines that held their own but couldn't score much. That team flopped in the 7AA semis. I'm not saying that will happen to EP--I do think 10-11 EP is better--but it shows some of the danger of riding one line.

Re: Northwoods Oldtimer
-Yes, I too was surprised by some of the elite league selections from East. But if we look at what they did...two made the Bauer NIT team and clearly belonged; one was their leading scorer last year; another made Elite League last year so got a free berth this year. That leaves one surprise, but based on the stats he appears to have held his own. And "Randolph Effect" or not, they did participate, which can only help their development. And even if we assume a couple of those Advanced players are stretches, they still have an awful lot of them.

I agree East can be exposed by a better puck controlling team, but right now, who's on that list? Edina and Hill-Murray for sure. Perhaps Wayzata, though East did outshoot them heavily in their meeting last year (a game Wayzata won in OT). But anyone else?

Just remember..............I told you so. Have a good season fellas!

[HockeyMN1]

People don't get so worked up about Karl's opinions on the rankings. Disagree, make comments, make your points, but keep in mind he is not attacking. Right or wrong people are gonna have different opinions.

A few of my thoughts after seeing the rankings and reading the responses:

Very nice job Karl, obviously a lot of time and thought put into it. Keep up the good work!

Duluth East will be one of the deeper teams in the state, yes I believe deeper then Eden Prairie. They did have one of the top 3 Bantam A teams that I saw last year, a few that can step in on the top 3 lines if need be. Also, a few JV players/4th line guys from last year that I believe can flourish in an expanded role.

I think it is a very legitimate question to wonder who is going to score besides Rau at Eden Prairie. I believe they are one of the top teams in the state regardless. I know how good defensively they are with Moleenar, Seeler, and Rau, and Moleenar is a huge threat offensively. They lost Rogge, Erickson, Gerdes, and Loken. I did not see any Bantams from last year that I believe can play on the top 2 lines this year. What 2 forwards are going to play with Rau? McCartan? Rath? Who does that leave for their 2nd line?

Gerdes is a senior this year. With Rau you're probably looking at either both Raths who they kept together most of last year or McCartan and Gerdes. Whichever one it isn't will probably be second line and then third line will be mostly juniors. So two very strong lines offensively which will probably see a lot of ice time and two of the top d lines in the state.

[karl(east)]

People don't get so worked up about Karl's opinions on the rankings. Disagree, make comments, make your points, but keep in mind he is not attacking. Right or wrong people are gonna have different opinions.

A few of my thoughts after seeing the rankings and reading the responses:

Very nice job Karl, obviously a lot of time and thought put into it. Keep up the good work!

Duluth East will be one of the deeper teams in the state, yes I believe deeper then Eden Prairie. They did have one of the top 3 Bantam A teams that I saw last year, a few that can step in on the top 3 lines if need be. Also, a few JV players/4th line guys from last year that I believe can flourish in an expanded role.

I think it is a very legitimate question to wonder who is going to score besides Rau at Eden Prairie. I believe they are one of the top teams in the state regardless. I know how good defensively they are with Moleenar, Seeler, and Rau, and Moleenar is a huge threat offensively. They lost Rogge, Erickson, Gerdes, and Loken. I did not see any Bantams from last year that I believe can play on the top 2 lines this year. What 2 forwards are going to play with Rau? McCartan? Rath? Who does that leave for their 2nd line?

Gerdes is a senior this year. With Rau you're probably looking at either both Raths who they kept together most of last year or McCartan and Gerdes. Whichever one it isn't will probably be second line and then third line will be mostly juniors. So two very strong lines offensively which will probably see a lot of ice time and two of the top d lines in the state.

Yes, they can definitely have 2 good lines if they develop the 2nd one properly. I never denied that. The point all along was that East was deeper, in that they can roll 3-4 lines that will be counted on to do some scoring. This was reflected to some degree in their meeting last year; as I recall, East matched its 3rd line up with EP's 1st. Rogge scored both of EP's goals in the 2-2 tie; East got 1 from the 4th line and 1 from the 2nd. I see no reason to think that dynamic has changed much this year.

That doesn't mean East is better than EP. EP clearly has more star power, both on offense and on defense. I have them ahead of East in the rankings for a reason. East is just a bit deeper.