Class A Rankings 1-16-11

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:38 am

1. [1] St Thomas Academy (8-3)
Played two great games this week and start the week with two away games then a game at home against the defending champs. The Cadets played a Delbarton team, who got crushed by Shattuck, pretty evenly. They will need all the help they can get to keep the game with Shattuck close.
This week: Tues @Shattuck St Mary’s, Thurs @ North St Paul, Sat vs Breck

2. [3] Blake (12-2-1)
The Bears play both Providence Academy and Breck twice more this season. We’ll find out a lot about all three teams starting this Tuesday.
This week: Tues @ Providence Academy, Sat @ St Paul Como Park

3. [4] Hermantown (13-0-1)
The next realistic opportunity for the Hawks to lose is next Saturday in Bemidji. Beating Grand Rapids showed a lot but the margin of victory over Cathedral shows some chance for an upset in sections.
This week: Tues vs Superior, Thurs vs Ashland, Sat @ Bemidji

4. [2] Breck (8-3)
Hopefully for the Mustangs beating Minnehaha 19-0 this week helped them somehow prepare for Delbarton. A couple weeks ago St Thomas beat WBL 2-1 and Breck played them well, but came up short. St Thomas beat Delbarton 2-1, will Breck’s result be different this time?
This week: Mon vs Delbarton, Tues vs St Paul Como Park, Sat @ St Thomas

5. [6] Totino-Grace (11-1)
The Eagles continue their dominance with their schedule just as it starts to get more difficult. We’ll see how they match up with the Red Knights the week before they play Breck and Edina.
This week: Wed vs Chisago Lakes, Sat vs Benilde St Margaret’s

6. [7] South St. Paul (9-4)
A big conference game to help bolster the Packers’ shot at the #2 seed in section 4A this week.
This week: Tues @ Prior Lake, Thurs vs Mahtomedi, Sat @ Simley

7. [11] Little Falls (12-1-2)
I don’t know that this is the right spot for them, but beating Brainerd while a team they beat to start the season loses to Cloquet seems to show that they can play.
This week: Tues vs Wilmar

8. [5] Hibbing/Chisholm (12-4-1)
Beating Virginia by a small margin at home is still a win, but it shows their lack of dominance. The Bluejackets will be tested twice this week, both away games.
This week: Tues @ Duluth Central, Fri @ Grand Rapids

9. [8] Duluth Marshall (9-7-1)
An odd off week late in the season for the Hilltoppers right after their loss to Totino-Grace. Hopefully they rest up well, they have 3 difficult road games next week.
This week: Idle

10. [15] Warroad (11-4)
The Warriors had a slow start but are on an 8 game winning streak this week. Beating TRF shouldn’t be a problem Tuesday but their winning streak will be tested on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs Thief River Falls, Sat @ Moorhead

11. [10] Virginia (12-5)
The next 4 games for the Blue Devils should be easy wins before 4 tough games to round out the season. The last two games of the season should decide where they are seeded for sections.
This week: Tues vs Two Harbors, Thurs vs International Falls

12. [14] Mahtomedi (5-9-1)
A quality section win helps their record for right now. Three away games this week, two that could definitely add to their loss total; the Zephyrs continue their hope for a .500 season.
This week: Tues @ Red Wing, Thurs @ South St Paul, Sat @ Tartan

13. [16] Thief River Falls (9-5-1)
The prowlers control their own destiny in section 8A; their one game this week is in Warroad.
This week: Thurs @ Warroad

14. [9] Rochester Lourdes (13-2)
Beating Mankato West by 1 at home is tough to understand. I haven’t been sold on them all season; we will see how they do playing in Delano this week. How far will a loss drop them?
This week: Sat @ Delano

15. [18] St. Cloud Cathedral (7-6)
The Crusaders open conference play this week coming off a 3 game losing streak in which they have lost to Hermantown, Breck and Warroad each by 2 goals.
This week: Tues vs Waconia, Sat @ Orono

16. [17] Chisago Lakes Area (11-2)
I suspect the Wildcats are a team similar to Lourdes where they have played a pretty easy schedule and won those games, although they did score as many on Hibbing as Virginia did recently. We’ll see how they play at Totino this week.
This week: Wed @ Totino-Grace

17. [19] Delano (10-3-1)
3-1 in conference play thus far; the Tigers look to make it 5-1 this week with a hopefully home win against a common opponent with Breck.
This week: Tues @ Litchfield, Thurs vs Hutchinson, Sat vs Rochester Lourdes

18. [13] East Grand Forks (7-8 )
Was the Green Wave’s home win over Warroad a fluke? Only time will really tell. Their almost entirely 8A schedule is really tough to gauge.
This week: Tues vs Red Lakes Falls, Thurs vs Moorhead

19. [*21] Duluth Central (8-8 )
The Trojans have shown spurts of being able to play, but they have no quality wins this season aside from their win at Proctor. Winning Thursday at home would help a lot with that.
This week: Tues vs Hibbing

20. [-] Providence Academy (11-3)
I’m at a loss for where the Lions deserve to be. Losing to Breck by 2 in a game they controlled until the end followed by a one goal loss to Coon Rapids is hard to understand. A win this Tuesday wouldn’t be any easier to rank.
This week: Tues vs Blake, Sat vs St Paul Johnson

Teams to Watch

Rogers (7-5-1)
This week: Tues vs Maple Grove, Thurs @ Monticello

Sartell-St. Stephen (9-5)
This week: Tues @ Brainerd, Thurs @ Wilmar

Orono (8-6)
This week: Tues @ Holy Family Catholic, Sat vs St Cloud Cathedral

Holy Family Catholic (7-6)
This week: Tues vs Orono, Thurs @ Litchfield

Proctor (10-5-1)
This week: Tues @ Moose Lake Area

Detroit Lakes (9-5)
This week: Tues @ Crookston, Thurs @ Northern Lakes, Sat vs International Falls

New Ulm (11-1-2)
This week: Tues @ Fairmont, Thurs vs Minnehaha Academy, Sat @ Litchfield

Section Seedings

1A
Rochecter Lourdes (13-2)
Mankato West (11-4-1)
Albert Lea (10-6)
The Eagles are now showing themselves to be more and more beatable.

2A
Breck (8-3)
Blake (12-2-1)
Providence Academy (11-3)
Delano (10-3-1)
Blake and Providence Academy square off this week, as well as Delano and Lourdes, who Breck will play later this season. All 4 of these teams could end the season with any seed; the last month or so of the season will tell a lot.

3A
New Ulm (11-1-2)
Hutchinson (5-7)
Litchfield (8-3-1)
The competition in 3A is still down to these 3 teams and New Ulm will most likely only be tested once during the section tournament.

4A
St Thomas (8-3)
South St Paul (9-4)
Totino-Grace (11-1)
Mahtomedi (5-9-1)
Chisago Lakes Area (11-2)
I have South St Paul ahead of Totino now because of their close loss to St Thomas. The Packers and Zephyrs play this week; it will most likely have implications for where teams will be ranked between 2 and 5 come section seeding.

5A
Hermantown (13-0-1)
Rogers (7-5-1)
St Cloud Cathedral (7-6)
Proctor (10-5-1)
Beating Cathedral by 2 in St Cloud shows that anyone could come out on top in these games come sections.

6A
Little Falls (12-1-2)
Sartell-St Stephen (9-5)
Fergus Falls (6-3-3)
Little Falls is clearly the front runner in 6A right now. Little Falls plays at Sartell next week, which will help with seeding more.

7A
Hibbing (12-4-1)
Virginia (11-4)
Duluth Marshall (8-6-1)
Duluth Central (8-8 )
Hibbing just beat Virginia in their first of two meetings on the season. Hibbing and Central play this week. Marshall doesn’t play Central and Virginia until the first two weeks of February.

8A
East Grand Forks (7-8 )
Warroad (11-4)
Thief River Falls (9-5-1)
Crookston (6-9-1)
Lake of the Woods (8-5-2)
With the Green Wave’s shut out win over Warroad earlier this season, they are in control of their destiny for section seeding, but Warroad is definitely looking the best at the moment. This will be a very competitive section.

State Seeding if Section Top Seeds Won Their Section Today
#1 St Thomas
#2 Blake
#3 Hermantown
#4 Little Falls
[5] Hibbing
[6] East Grand Forks
[7] New Ulm
[8] Rochester Lourdes

puckster15 · Post by **puckster15** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:07 pm

Looking forward to the Breck / STA game next weekend. STA has struggled in scoring, should really help clarify top five standings.

Blake certainly had a good showing against Tonka. With STA losing twice to Tonka, seems Blake and STA as 1 and 2 makes sense.

High Flyer · Post by **High Flyer** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:01 pm

HHF-Sometimes if you are paient, the rankings just have a way of sorting themselves out with the head to head match ups. I think you have prematurly dropped Breck down in your rankings when results wise, they have not done nothing to merrit the move down. While Hermantown did have a big win vs. Grand Rapids, you really need other teams above them to falter before leap frogging them ahead. Same with Little Falls, Warroads move up

1-STA
2-Breck
3-Blake
4-Totino
5-Hermantown
6-South St. Paul
7-Duluth Marshall
8-Hibbing
9-Virgina
10-Rochester

Sat. 1/22 would have set up #1 vs. #2, with the loser dropping to #4. At this point I still would not move Hermantown up any higher than five and certainlly not ahead of Totino & Blake, until Totino/Blake lose/tie to a unranked team.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:48 pm

High Flyer wrote:HHF-Sometimes if you are paient, the rankings just have a way of sorting themselves out with the head to head match ups. I think you have prematurly dropped Breck down in your rankings when results wise, they have not done nothing to merrit the move down. While Hermantown did have a big win vs. Grand Rapids, you really need other teams above them to falter before leap frogging them ahead. Same with Little Falls, Warroads move up

1-STA
2-Breck
3-Blake
4-Totino
5-Hermantown
6-South St. Paul
7-Duluth Marshall
8-Hibbing
9-Virgina
10-Rochester

Sat. 1/22 would have set up #1 vs. #2, with the loser dropping to #4. At this point I still would not move Hermantown up any higher than five and certainlly not ahead of Totino & Blake, until Totino/Blake lose/tie to a unranked team.

Breck was completely dominated by Providence Academy and came back at the end of the game. They beat Cathedral by the same score at your #5. They also lost to Hill Murray 0-8, worse than Hill beat any other team they've played.

You are right that based on wins/losses, they haven't done anything to deserve being pushed down, but with a Tri-County schedule, common opponent games need to be used, imo. Warroad isn't in your top 10, while they shut out Cathedral 2-0 in St Cloud, but Breck is #2 when they beat them 6-4 in the cities.

Just how I view it.

scarlethockey33 · Post by **scarlethockey33** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 2:27 pm

Rankings are getting better as the season continues Lourdes at 14 seems reasonable.

Personally Lourdes didnt play their best game vs. Mankato West, but I can equally say that Mankato West did not play their best game either.

Mahtomedi seems like the most interesting team because of their record. Looks like a tough road for them to get a .500 record, but they may easily have the most deceiving record.

Holy Family will be a very good team in the future, young talented squad on that team. Only features four seniors, this year... I think?

defense · Post by **defense** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:32 pm

Section 6
1- Little Falls
2- Sartell
3- Fergus Falls
4- Alexandria
5- Willmar this team is on the verge of making a run
6- Detroit Lakes didn't beat Willmar, any loss is really hurting DL, nice game up north though

Willmar may well end up being a surprise here. A few more W's and I think they move into seriouse contention. Detroit Lakes shows it can play with good teams, probly the top dark horse at this point.

crosscheck20 · Post by **crosscheck20** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:03 pm

Breck is over rated and it shows how AA hockey is better than A hockey, there are a couple good A teams but breck is not top 5 worthy. Very over rated.

starmvp · Post by **starmvp** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:06 pm

crosscheck20 wrote:Breck is over rated and it shows how AA hockey is better than A hockey, there are a couple good A teams but breck is not top 5 worthy. Very over rated.

Looks like they're young. I also agree that they are overrated but I think they will return to power again next year.

dirtracing17 · Post by **dirtracing17** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:00 pm

i dont agree with little falls above hibbing, yes they beat hibbing but hibbing beat i falls a couple game later who little falls tied and just beat virginia who beat little falls

ryno44 · Post by **ryno44** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:08 pm

I'm not really a Hermantown fan, but yes being undefeated in something to be proud of, but that doesn't mean they should be #1. St. Thomas is a really good team and plays a tough schedule.

The record doesn't necessarly mean how good you are. Yes they beat Rapids but also had to go to OT with Central...

Record shouldn't mean everything when it comes to state seedings...

MHGr8ness · Post by **MHGr8ness** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:41 pm

ryno44 wrote:I'm not really a Hermantown fan, but yes being undefeated in something to be proud of, but that doesn't mean they should be #1. St. Thomas is a really good team and plays a tough schedule.

The record doesn't necessarly mean how good you are. Yes they beat Rapids but also had to go to OT with Central...

Record shouldn't mean everything when it comes to state seedings...

so you agree that they're 3? who said they were 1?

MHGr8ness · Post by **MHGr8ness** » Sun Jan 16, 2011 11:42 pm

dirtracing17 wrote:i dont agree with little falls above hibbing, yes they beat hibbing but hibbing beat i falls a couple game later who little falls tied and just beat virginia who beat little falls

a loss 6-1 at home and you still claim that you're better?

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:54 am

ryno44 wrote:I'm not really a Hermantown fan, but yes being undefeated in something to be proud of, but that doesn't mean they should be #1. St. Thomas is a really good team and plays a tough schedule.

The record doesn't necessarly mean how good you are. Yes they beat Rapids but also had to go to OT with Central...

Record shouldn't mean everything when it comes to state seedings...

This brings up something that I always struggle with; the point of the game is to not lose. Period. We all know that teams mix things up with different opponents so it is really hard to say that winning by 2 is less impressive than by 5.

Also, we use their schedule to judge so much. Well, switch the schedule's of H-town and STA, what would be different? H-town would be #1 because they "play a tough schedule" and St Thomas would probably be #2 or #3 and undefeated, but they play an "easier schedule" so undefeated doesn't mean much.
It's a tough battle when you're not judging the team as much as you are the schedule.

dirtracing17 wrote:i dont agree with little falls above hibbing, yes they beat hibbing but hibbing beat i falls a couple game later who little falls tied and just beat virginia who beat little falls

This one is tough, I agree. Generally by this point in the season early game are close to thrown out, but at the end of the day Little Falls went to Hibbing and won. So, I could see an argument for Hibbing to be higher in the overall ranking, but Little Falls higher in the state ranking, but that's about it.

TheSiouxSuck · Post by **TheSiouxSuck** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:09 pm

Out of curiousity, I've noticed New Ulm has dropped each successive week since winning the Rochester tournament, but still has only lost one game all year.

Wouldnt their continous drop in rankings need to be a result of losing? After checking out their schedule, it is nothing to get excited about, but that cant really be held against them since they keep winning, can it?

dirtracing17 · Post by **dirtracing17** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:20 pm

MHGr8ness wrote:
dirtracing17 wrote:i dont agree with little falls above hibbing, yes they beat hibbing but hibbing beat i falls a couple game later who little falls tied and just beat virginia who beat little falls
a loss 6-1 at home and you still claim that you're better?

yes, hibbings only loss in class A is to little falls which was the very first game of the year. and like i said, they beat virginia and i falls who little falls didnt win against.

MNhockeyfan12101 · Post by **MNhockeyfan12101** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:35 pm

Mahtomedi beat Virginia 5-1 or 5-2? And I believe mahtomedi's schedule is a lot more difficult than virginia's. Wouldn't this place them higher than Virginia?

MHGr8ness · Post by **MHGr8ness** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:10 pm

TheSiouxSuck wrote:Out of curiousity, I've noticed New Ulm has dropped each successive week since winning the Rochester tournament, but still has only lost one game all year.

Wouldnt their continous drop in rankings need to be a result of losing? After checking out their schedule, it is nothing to get excited about, but that cant really be held against them since they keep winning, can it?

you can drop with or not really gain even while running the table (Hermantown), but I agree that I'm not sure if they should have been dropped that far

HockeyMN1 · Post by **HockeyMN1** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:42 pm

No mention of Mankato West? The Fin is on fire. It would be fun to see them get past Lourdes and see this kid in state.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:46 pm

TheSiouxSuck wrote:Out of curiousity, I've noticed New Ulm has dropped each successive week since winning the Rochester tournament, but still has only lost one game all year.

Wouldnt their continous drop in rankings need to be a result of losing? After checking out their schedule, it is nothing to get excited about, but that cant really be held against them since they keep winning, can it?

New Ulm is in a tough situation. See my comments about htown/sta's schedules. They went up ONLY because of a common opponent win with a team Lourdes lost to. New Ulm has an 2-8 loss to my #17 team, who Lourdes plays this week.

If you took Eden Prairie's roster, gave them Sleepy Eye's schedule, they shut everyone out and won in double digits every game, where would they be ranked in AA? Would they be ranked? This is obviously a drastic example, but it's the same thing we deal with for a couple teams in the state who have awesome records.

I don't have the answer, nor am I perfect, but those things are hard to weigh.

HockeyMN1 wrote:No mention of Mankato West? The Fin is on fire. It would be fun to see them get past Lourdes and see this kid in state.

I'm not sure who "The Fin" is, as I don't rank players, just teams, but their schedule is another that would be hard to rank. I could see a team with their schedule going undefeated, making it to state and not being ranked. That being said, they have 4 losses, all by a 1 and 2 in OT. I will take note of them.

scarlethockey33 · Post by **scarlethockey33** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 2:02 pm

No mention of Mankato West? The Fin is on fire. It would be fun to see them get past Lourdes and see this kid in state.

not to mention they did beat albert lea, who you at least had as a team to watch until this week

goldy313 · Post by **goldy313** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:44 pm

New Ulm isn't rated because they're in 3A, bottom line.

#5 Totino Grace SOS is 102
#7 Little Falls SOS is 97
#15 Cathedral SOS is 94
#16 Chisago Lakes SOS is 120

New Ulm's SOS is 112, not much difference between those 5.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:31 pm

scarlethockey33 wrote:
No mention of Mankato West? The Fin is on fire. It would be fun to see them get past Lourdes and see this kid in state.
not to mention they did beat albert lea, who you at least had as a team to watch until this week

A team on the outside looking in beats another team on the outside looking in and they should be ranked? Both will be considered, but with very few good teams on their schedule, it's tough.

goldy313 wrote:New Ulm isn't rated because they're in 3A, bottom line.

#5 Totino Grace SOS is 102
#7 Little Falls SOS is 97
#15 Cathedral SOS is 94
#16 Chisago Lakes SOS is 120

New Ulm's SOS is 112, not much difference between those 5.

Team A plays and beats teams 20, 21, and 22 and has a SOS average of 21. Team B plays and beats teams 8, 12, and 70 and has a SOS average of 30. Who do you rank higher? For me, it would be team B, which is why SOS can be deceiving.

New Ulm has PLAYED all of zero teams worth noting in MN, in addition has played some of the teams on their schedule quite tightly. Little Falls beat my #8 and played others, Totino beat my #12 and lost to #2, Cathedral just lost to #'s 3, 4, and 10, and Chisago lakes lost to #8, and top 5 in AA.

So, from a math perspective, what that says is that New Ulm has played all average teams, the other teams have played some really bad teams and some good teams. Chisago is odd as well, but has common games to compare.

As I said when I commented on Little Falls earlier in the season, if they were demolishing their opponents and shutting many out, while scoring many, the story would be different. Fact is, they are playing close games with mediocre teams (tied 3-win Prior Lake), and lost by 6 goals to Delano. As I just asked:

If you took Eden Prairie's roster, gave them Sleepy Eye's schedule, they shut everyone out and won in double digits every game, where would they be ranked in AA? Would they be ranked?

Not saying you're wrong, or that I'm right, just giving you my perspective. Would love more opinions to consider.

HockeyMN1 · Post by **HockeyMN1** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:53 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
HockeyMN1 wrote:No mention of Mankato West? The Fin is on fire. It would be fun to see them get past Lourdes and see this kid in state.
I'm not sure who "The Fin" is, as I don't rank players, just teams, but their schedule is another that would be hard to rank. I could see a team with their schedule going undefeated, making it to state and not being ranked. That being said, they have 4 losses, all by a 1 and 2 in OT. I will take note of them.

The Fin is Ville Rantanen, state's points leader. He's an exchange student from Finland, and he's lighting it up.

dangler99.1 · Post by **dangler99.1** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:03 pm

Breck hasn't beat anyone good this year.
They are a little on the young side.
They are a 5 thru 10 team, but not a top 4.
If everyone sticks around, they should be very, very good next year.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:31 pm

dangler99.1 wrote:Breck hasn't beat anyone good this year.
They are a little on the young side.
They are a 5 thru 10 team, but not a top 4.
If everyone sticks around, they should be very, very good next year.

Probably won't post on here for a few days, so thought I'd respond to this now.

The difference in my opinion is two things:

1. Breck is back-to-back state champs. If you were to compare this year's schedule to other schools with similar Class A winning percentages, you would see wins against Mahtomedi and Cathedral. If you don't like those, which I do, you would then see they have done this and won the past two state titles.

Two years ago, they same comments that are being made about New Ulm, Lourdes, etc, were made against Breck; soft schedule, margin of victory, etc. The difference; they went to state two years in a row and went 3-0 both years. Without knowing specifics about the roster, it's tough to put them down, imo.

2. Their schedule isn't like those other teams. How do you get in the Gold Division? You win the Silver. Why do teams like Mahtomedi, Cathedral, St Thomas, Lourdes, etc schedule you? You're good.

But you are right. It's not terribly impressive. The issues is balancing what they have done, not what is hard to compare.

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Class A Rankings 1-16-11

If Hermantown ends the season with 1 loss or less and makes state, what seed should they get?

Class A Rankings 1-16-11