AA Rankings for 2/13/11

[karl(east)]

Here it is; one last set of in-season rankings. Next week’s will take the section preview format that I used last year.

The records after the team names are 1. Overall record; 2. Record vs. the top 15, STA, and Shattuck; 3. Record vs. the bubble and a few top A teams.

1. Hill-Murray (19-3-1/3-3-1/4-0)
-Beat a decent South St. Paul team this past week, and then proved themselves on slush in Moorhead. The continued wins and losses by the teams below them once again make the Pioneers the easy choice for the top spot. They’re not that far ahead of the competition, if at all, but at least they are consistent. To keep the top spot heading into sections (and claim the CSC outright), they’ll need to get one more important win this Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

2. Eden Prairie (16-5-2/9-4-2/4-1)
-It was another tough week of Lake play for the Eagles, but a win and a tie vs. their two 6AA rivals make them 2-0-2 against Tonka and Wayzata this year. That should be enough for the top seed in the section, and puts them in position to win the conference, if they can finally get over their Edina problems. They’ve survived the grueling schedule mostly intact, and one last big win would get one of their monkeys off their backs and set them up for a good run through sections.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #5 Edina

3. Maple Grove (18-3-2/3-3-1/3-0-1)
-Two more NWSC wins get them the conference crown and continue to raise their stock while the rest of the state takes its lumps. Their rapid rise may surprise some, but their results over the past two months don’t lie. They head into sections in as good a position as anyone not named Hill. One more possibly difficult game this week against rival Osseo.
This week: Tues vs. North Metro, Sat vs. Osseo

4. Wayzata (16-5-2/6-5-2/4-0)
-Lost a close game to Eden Prairie; they’re certainly capable of turning that result around in the postseason, but they’re not gathering much momentum as we head into the home stretch. The Roseau win was tight as well, though the ice conditions probably kept the score down. The game this week against Tonka might be huge for section seeding; they need to avenge that ugly loss the first time around.
This week: Thurs vs. #6 Minnetonka, Sat at Hopkins

5. Edina (14-6-2/7-5-2/2-1)
-Appear fully recovered from their January swoon, and seem to be gathering steam better than any of the other Lake teams as we head towards the playoffs. Of course, just as it looked like it was all coming together, they lost their Mr. Hockey finalist defenseman to injury. Everson’s ability to recover and contribute will be huge in such a compressed AA this year; at the moment, they only have one healthy defenseman who saw regular ice time last year. A third win over Eden Prairie would say a lot about them.
This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat vs. #2 Eden Prairie

6. Minnetonka (15-6-2/6-4-2/2-2)
-The Skippers had a tough week in losing to Jefferson and Edina, but a tie with Eden Prairie is a nice rebound and keeps them from sinking any further. (One 0-3 week could drop a team a long ways this year, even if the losses are to good teams.) Now they have one last important Lake game against Wayzata; they are the conference points leaders at the moment, though they do not control their own destiny.
This week: Thurs at #4 Wayzata, Sat vs. Buffalo

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (19-4/4-3/3-0)
-Of all the crazy results this season, none can quite match Benilde’s loss to Spring Lake Park. It’s baffling, and hard to judge. To their credit, they came back and gave Shattuck a good run two nights later. A second win over Totino will give them the NSC title (for whatever that’s worth to them), and their last playoff warmup comes against a decent Stillwater team.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at Stillwater

8. Grand Rapids (20-3-1/3-2/4-1)
-Put together a pair of impressive wins to wrap up the IRC schedule and became the first team in the state to 20 wins (Bemidji has since joined them.) Their recent steadiness keeps them a tiny bit ahead of East in the rankings; they get another common opponent in the last game of the season.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Central

9. Duluth East (17-5/4-5/6-0)
-The Hounds got two more wins against section opponents to wrap up an undefeated regular season vs. 7AA; however, the games couldn’t have been more different, as they destroyed Cloquet and had to claw their way past Elk River. Need to find some consistency and turn shots and territorial advantages into goals. Two warm-up games for sections to close out their regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Hastings, Sat at Tartan

10. Burnsville (16-4-3/3-3-2/3-1-1)
-Took their first stumble in the SSC this Saturday to Apple Valley; considering the body of their work that’s not too serious a blow, but now is not the time to start losing important games. They have one last conference game of some importance, as they will spend the week visiting Bloomington.
This week: Thurs at Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

11. Eagan (16-5-2/2-3-2/2-1)
-Win over Eastview was a bit closer than expected, but they followed that up by taking Kennedy apart. Have settled into this spot pretty comfortably. One last easy conference win before closing it all out against a Jefferson team on the rise.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

12. Apple Valley (16-6-1/2-4-1/1-2)
-AV’s narrow win over Burnsville gives us three SSC teams in a row here. AV has a couple of losses on the schedule that are less than ideal, but they seem to be coming together at the right time, and AV has a great track record in sections in recent years. They’ll close out their season playing the Lakevilles; South beat them the first time around, and North gave them a 1-goal game, so they can’t take anything for granted.
This week: Tues vs. Lakeville South, Thurs at Lakeville North

13. Blaine (16-4-3/1-2-3/3-1)
-Marched to a pair of NWSC wins this past week; they’re not blowing anyone away, but they’re getting the job done. Centennial’s loss to Blaine may mean the rematch is meaningless for seeding purposes, but after the rough loss the first time around, Blaine could use a good bounce-back win to restore some confidence as they prepare for a potential round 3.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. Centennial

14. Bemidji (20-2-2/0-1-2/1-1)
-A second tie with Moorhead keeps them from moving very far from where the Spuds are ranked, but it does give them the top spot in the section and reinforce how dangerous they could be. Also got an OT win at home against Warroad to hit the 20-win plateau. Wrap things up on the road against Thief River Falls.
This week: Thurs at Thief River Falls

15. Moorhead (14-7-2/2-6-2/2-0)
-Failed to take control of the section, but still have themselves in decent position going forward. The closeness of the Hill game might be encouraging, or it might mean nothing, given the conditions.
This week: Fri at Alexandria

Bubble
Lakeville South (13-7-2/1-6/1-1-2)
-Whipped North for a second time this year, cementing their status as #1 in section 1 and giving them 6 wins in a row. They’re coming on strong towards the end of the season, and if they can beat Apple Valley for a second time, they will probably crack the top 15 for sections. Also play Eastview this week.

Bloomington Jefferson (13-8-2/3-5/1-2-2)
-An upset of Minnetonka adds to what has been a very respectable second half by the Jaguars. They could be a serious threat in 2AA at this rate, though they will first have to get by the Prior Lake team that beat them a few weeks ago. End the season with two very good challenges, taking on Burnsville and Eagan.

Cloquet (16-7/1-4/2-0)
-Had an odd week, as they got pounded by Duluth East, then bounced back with a convincing win over Stillwater. Not easy to read lately, but for the most part there’s been more good than bad. End the season with trips to a couple of SEC cities, taking on likely quarterfinal opponent Forest Lake and a good final test in White Bear Lake.

White Bear Lake (15-5-2/0-4/3-1-1)
-Not a dazzling week for the Bears, as they tie Cretin and scrape by Flake, but they are still in position to win the conference. They have a very busy final week, with SEC battles against Park and Roseville and an interesting little visit form Cloquet. Recent results have not been as good as earlier ones.

Osseo (15-7/0-5/3-0)
-Win over Centennial is a nice resume pad. As the record shows, they are very obviously in the top 15, but very obviously belong in the next tier. Have been running under the radar and could shake up 5AA some.

Stillwater (15-5-2/1-0/2-4)
-Fun fact: Stillwater is undefeated against the top 15! The rest of their schedule doesn’t stack up with that one upset of Tonka, though, and the loss to Cloquet was not a good sign. With a little help they can still win the SEC, and the season-closing home game against Benilde will put that undefeated record on the line and tell us a little more about this team.

Holy Angels (15-8/2-5/2-1)
-The streak had to end sometime. But there were warning signs this year--a lot of their Missota wins have been a lot closer than usual. Even though this whacks their ranking and might arouse a few doubts, they have shown they can compete with anyone. Two last conference games this week; New Prague gave them a 1-goal game the first time around, so that one may be worth keeping an eye on.

Cretin-Derham Hall (12-8-4/1-1/4-4-2)
-Coming on strong as we head into sections, making them a potentially very dangerous semifinal opponent in 3AA. Showing real signs of improvement. Only one game left, against Forest Lake.

Elk River (9-13-1/0-9/3-2)
-Not an easy team to rank; yes, the record is awful, but most of their losses are to good teams, and some--though not all--have been pretty competitive. On top of that they have some strong wins against bubble teams (Jefferson, AHA, Centennial in the 1st meeting), and three not-so-pleasant results.

Centennial (10-10-2/1-6-1/1-4-1)
-Loss to Osseo stings. No real bad losses, but they simply haven’t gotten it done, that one big win over Blaine aside.

Hovering: Roseau, Roseville.

Sections:

1AA
(16) Lakeville South

-I have South alone here right now, since it doesn’t look like anyone is going to give them a serious challenge. (Though as I’ve been saying all year, that’s what we thought last year, too.) After that, we have a royal mess, which I won’t wade into until next week.

2AA
5 Edina
(22) Holy Angels
10 Burnsville
(17) Bloomington Jefferson
Prior Lake

-This section might intrigue me the most of all of them. Edina is coming together but has shown its weaknesses at times, Burnsville has been steady throughout, Jefferson is coming on now, and AHA has given the top teams great games, even if they’ve had some trouble against lesser opponents. I also felt compelled to throw Prior Lake in there, as they are picking it up and seem to be a real upset threat.

3AA
11 Eagan
12 Apple Valley
Woodbury
(23) Cretin-Derham Hall
Hastings
East Ridge

-Eagan has the top spot with a 1-0-1 record against AV. 3-6 is something of a mess; I looked at their records against one another and comes out pretty nicely as the order listed above, despite some confusing individual results in there. But I would understand it completely if CDH ends up with the 3 and Woodbury the 4, based on the directions their seasons are currently going.

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(19) White Bear Lake
(21) Stillwater
Roseville

-Once again, not too much stress in trying to rank this section. The 2 vs. 3 seed still isn’t really settled--I’d probably give the spot to the SEC winner, and WBL can help its cause with a better showing against Cloquet as well, as they are a recent common opponent.

5AA
3 Maple Grove
12 Blaine
(20) Osseo
25 Centennial

-Osseo’s second win over Centennial probably locks this seeding in; even if Centennial beats Blaine again, Blaine’s beaten Osseo twice who’s beaten Centennial twice, and the overall seasons line up in this order. Since Centennial tied MG recently, that may not be a good thing for the section leaders.

6AA
2 Eden Prairie
7 Benilde
6 Minnetonka
4 Wayzata

-EP winds up undefeated against section opponents, so the #1 seed is theirs. Benilde, with its loss to EP and win over Tonka, slides into the second spot easily enough. Right now Tonka has the edge for #3, but if Wayzata wins the rematch on Thursday, I’d give them the spot since they will then have two fewer losses.

7AA
9 Duluth East
8 Grand Rapids
(24) Elk River
(18) Cloquet

-ER’s strong showing vs. East compared to Cloquet’s weak one gives the Elks the 3-seed in my mind, which sets us up for our first East-Cloquet playoff game in a few years, assuming CEC can handle Forest Lake. Either way it’s a great final four, with two very strong teams at the top and two dangerous upset-minded teams lurking behind them.

8AA
14 Bemidji
15 Moorhead
Roseau
Brainerd
St. Cloud Tech

-Bemidji went 2-0 against Roseau, while Moorhead split those meetings, so the Jacks get the top seed. The team to watch here is Roseau; despite the trying season, they’ve been coming on ever since the ugly loss to Bemidji, with wins over Brainerd and Tech, plus a close game with Wayzata.

This is it; next week the section preview edition of the rankings comes out!

[PuckU126]

OMG

I actually agree with all of your rankings this week.

Great job, Karl.

And kudos for beating Watcher this week posting your rankings earlier.

[Maple Grove Crimson#1]

Nice Karl. I really have no beefs with your rankings. One thing about section 5 if centennial beats Blaine and Osseo beats Maple grove, do u see any way it could be osseo #2, Centennial #3 and Blaine #4?

[PuckU126]

Nice Karl. I really have no beefs with your rankings. One thing about section 5 if centennial beats Blaine and Osseo beats Maple grove, do u see any way it could be osseo #2, Centennial #3 and Blaine #4?

I think I know why, MGC#1...

MG is ranked 3rd Is that why?

[HShockeywatcher]

-I'd have Benilde one spot higher, as they beat the team above them.

-I'd again continue to have Holy Angels at #10. Imo, Roseau's OT loss to Wayzata today and East's close home victory over Elk River legitimize their away losses to these teams in the first 3 games of their season.

I think it's odd to say the #1 team can be the #1 team while losing to the #7 and #10 teams in the first 3 games, but say a team can't be top 15 because of first 3 game losses, despite the wins and close losses they do have. Oh well, we can continue to agree to disagree

1. Hill-Murray (19-3-1/3-3-1/4-0)
-Beat a decent South St. Paul team this past week, and then proved themselves on slush in Moorhead. The continued wins and losses by the teams below them once again make the Pioneers the easy choice for the top spot. They’re not that far ahead of the competition, if at all, but at least they are consistent. To keep the top spot heading into sections (and claim the CSC outright), they’ll need to get one more important win this Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

Were they a team to be added to your rankings, (a) how would you ranked St Thomas and (b) how would a loss to them [in your eyes] affect Hill-Murray?

Based on their results a rank of anywhere 2-10 could be argued I'd say. If you argued for #2 right now, I could legitimize Hill staying where they are with an OT loss Saturday, whereas if you argued #10 right now, a multi-goal loss could theoretically drop them from the top 10.

Curious on your opinion.

[east hockey]

-I'd have Benilde one spot higher, as they beat the team above them.

-I'd again continue to have Holy Angels at #10. Imo, Roseau's OT loss to Wayzata today and East's close home victory over Elk River legitimize their away losses to these teams in the first 3 games of their season.

I think it's odd to say the #1 team can be the #1 team while losing to the #7 and #10 teams in the first 3 games, but say a team can't be top 15 because of first 3 game losses, despite the wins and close losses they do have. Oh well, we can continue to agree to disagree

1. Hill-Murray (19-3-1/3-3-1/4-0)
-Beat a decent South St. Paul team this past week, and then proved themselves on slush in Moorhead. The continued wins and losses by the teams below them once again make the Pioneers the easy choice for the top spot. They’re not that far ahead of the competition, if at all, but at least they are consistent. To keep the top spot heading into sections (and claim the CSC outright), they’ll need to get one more important win this Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Tartan, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

Were they a team to be added to your rankings, (a) how would you ranked St Thomas and (b) how would a loss to them [in your eyes] affect Hill-Murray?

Based on their results a rank of anywhere 2-10 could be argued I'd say. If you argued for #2 right now, I could legitimize Hill staying where they are with an OT loss Saturday, whereas if you argued #10 right now, a multi-goal loss could theoretically drop them from the top 10.

Curious on your opinion.

Why? So you can argue with it even after he makes his point more clear?

Lee

[Shovel Shot]

Karl thanks for another great year of rankings and insight into each teams records and the sections breakdowns as well.

[Teak]

Sections:

1AA
(16) Lakeville South

-I have South alone here right now, since it doesn’t look like anyone is going to give them a serious challenge. (Though as I’ve been saying all year, that’s what we thought last year, too.) After that, we have a royal mess, which I won’t wade into until next week.

Wasn't Lakeville North favored last year, and then L. South upset them in the playoffs? Maybe that is what will happen this year. South will be favored and North will upset. Crazy season that it is.

[Zamman]

Karl, nice job with this years rankings. Tough the whole way through!!

[demongoed]

Karl, nice job on the rankings. However, I have to make a case for EP being ranked #1. In fact, when you look at where HM and EP get their wins, there's a significant part of their schedules where it's a bit like comparing apples and oranges.

Based on your rankings, EP has beat 9 of the top 15, including HM, and lost to 3 of the 15. HM on the other hand has only played 7 of the top 15, winning 3, losing 3, and tying Edina. Comparing losses, the only team HM beat that EP lost to is Holy Angels. On the other hand, in addition to HM, EP beat both BSM and Burnsville, 2 top 10 teams HM lost to.

When you look at your top 10, EPs record is 7-2, HM is 1-3.

My point I guess is that it's not surprising that HM racks up wins given their weaker schedule, and when you look at top 10 opponents, EP has a more wins and fewer losses, even though they've played many more of those teams.

[karl(east)]

-I'd have Benilde one spot higher, as they beat the team above them.

-I'd again continue to have Holy Angels at #10. Imo, Roseau's OT loss to Wayzata today and East's close home victory over Elk River legitimize their away losses to these teams in the first 3 games of their season.

AHA just lost to Chaska. Chaska is #104 in PS2. (Spring Lake Park is over 30 spots higher.) They have all of 5 wins this year. And based on AHA's narrow wins against many of the other teams in their conference this year, this is no huge fluke. There is a reason the computer rankings have had AHA down in the 20's for the past few weeks. This year, playing top teams close isn't worth much; certainly not as much as it is in A. Lots of bubble teams can do that.

If STA were AA, I'd put them at about #14. #10 at best, #18 at worst. They don't have any bad losses, but their best win was over WBL in OT.

As for Hill at #1--I've had them there for the past month, and I have never tried to pretend that I can justify that based on their record vs. other good teams. It's subjective, and it's my prerogative. They're peaking at the right time, and history tells us the weak schedule has never been a liability for them.

If they lose to STA and EP beats Edina, EP will be #1.

[blueblood]

HSHW:

I can see your point with STA being #1 in the JV division. But AHA is not a top 10 team, let alone a top 20 team, in the varsity division. You need to face the facts. The facts are:

They are very inconsistent team with average goaltending. Their Power Play is average at 19% with only 12 goals. Their Penalty Kill is an anemic 71%. Top 10 teams have PP% > 20 and PK > 85%.

They are 2-4 against class "AA" top 10. Roseau and ER are average teams. A sampling of some of AHA's games in the Missota:

Beat Chan 3-2 in OT in Dec
Beat Chan 3-2 in OT in Jan
Lost to Chaska 5-3 in Feb

They beat Burnsville and Eden Prairie, that's it. What else do they have that karl is missing.....

[hockeyfan893]

I thought we already settled this, Mankato East is clearly number one.

[starmvp]

I thought we already settled this, Mankato East is clearly number one.

They are Class A

[hockeyfan893]

I thought we already settled this, Mankato East is clearly number one.

They are Class A

True.

They're still the clear favorite to win it all though!

[goldy313]

I'd have Grand Rapids in front of BSM because I don't think you can excuse BSM's loss to Spring Lake Park and they struggled with Century who has been beaten by larger margins by Lakeville South, Minnetonka, and Mayo in the same time frame.

Teak, last year South was seeded #1 and North #3, South beat North twice during the season then South barely beat Dodge County in the quarterfinals and ended up getting beat by North 5-0 in the finals.

[BodyShots]

I'd have Grand Rapids in front of BSM because I don't think you can excuse BSM's loss to Spring Lake Park and they struggled with Century who has been beaten by larger margins by Lakeville South, Minnetonka, and Mayo in the same time frame.

Teak, last year South was seeded #1 and North #3, South beat North twice during the season then South barely beat Dodge County in the quarterfinals and ended up getting beat by North 5-0 in the finals.

Do you people remember a goalie by the name of Reggie Miracle? A hot goalie can beat any team in Minnesota, at any time. The really, really good ones can get you a section championship. Don't write off a team just because a hot goalie beat them in one game. You need to look at the entire season and determine if that one loss was an aberration or not.

[HShockeywatcher]

They beat Burnsville and Eden Prairie, that's it. What else do they have that karl is missing.....

That's it?
Everyone else who's beaten Burnsville is ranked top 12, everyone who's beaten/tied Eden Prairie is top 11.
Moorhead lost by the same score to Roseau on their 3rd game and is at 15, Jefferson lost to Elk River worse later in the season.

I don't believe teams outside the top 20 could beat the #2 team, or lose by 1 or 2 goals to 3 top 7 teams.

But my apologies for giving my opinion to start discussion on a board designed for discussion.

[DEHS Dan Green]

It kills me that GR is one spot above DE......

[BringBackTheBraves11]

They beat Burnsville and Eden Prairie, that's it. What else do they have that karl is missing.....

That's it?
Everyone else who's beaten Burnsville is ranked top 12, everyone who's beaten/tied Eden Prairie is top 11.
Moorhead lost by the same score to Roseau on their 3rd game and is at 15, Jefferson lost to Elk River worse later in the season.

I don't believe teams outside the top 20 could beat the #2 team, or lose by 1 or 2 goals to 3 top 7 teams.

But my apologies for giving my opinion to start discussion on a board designed for discussion.

AHA's SOS is what's really killing them. Seriously, beating teams in the Missota proves nothing. LOSING to a team in the Missota makes it worse. Out of conference, they're 4-7. Two of those wins are Blake (A solid team, but still Class A) and CDH (Only good win is Edina). I'm not saying AHA isn't good, but they haven't legitimately proven anything. Their record is inflated by their conference (Much like Hill, but Hill did work OOC).

I have no problem with AHA getting the 2 seed in 2AA based on their win over Burnsville, but right now, 22 is about right. You CAN'T lose to Chaska and say you're a top 20 team.

[blueblood]

BBTB11:

I agree with your analysis regarding AHA and top 20 rankings.

As for the #2 seed in 2AA, I think that's not as clear cut as most make it out to be. With AHA's recent loss to Chaska and Burnsville's conference championship that covers 18 games, AHA's win over Burnsville in late December has lost some luster.

Now, try to convince HSHW, who has yet to respond to my New Prague and section 1A assessment, of your thinking...

[DEHS Dan Green]

What I don't agree with is how high Grand Rapids is ranked. More of half of their games have been played against A teams. And with losses to Duluth East, Eden Prairie, and Hermantown, I just don't understand how they can be in the top 10.

[HockeyMN1]

Karl- please look at the second of your three records listed for each team. If I told you that vs. the top 25, your top 7 teams had records of 9-4-2, 7-5-2, 6-4-2, 6-5-2, 4-3, 3-3-1, and 3-3-1, who would you pick as the number one team? After all, top 15 teams are who you play come tournament time.
Eden Prairie has beaten top 15 teams nine times. That's right Ferris, NINE TIMES. For me, it's tough to argue with that.

[HShockeywatcher]

They beat Burnsville and Eden Prairie, that's it. What else do they have that karl is missing.....

That's it?
Everyone else who's beaten Burnsville is ranked top 12, everyone who's beaten/tied Eden Prairie is top 11.
Moorhead lost by the same score to Roseau on their 3rd game and is at 15, Jefferson lost to Elk River worse later in the season.

I don't believe teams outside the top 20 could beat the #2 team, or lose by 1 or 2 goals to 3 top 7 teams.

But my apologies for giving my opinion to start discussion on a board designed for discussion.

AHA's SOS is what's really killing them. Seriously, beating teams in the Missota proves nothing. LOSING to a team in the Missota makes it worse. Out of conference, they're 4-7. Two of those wins are Blake (A solid team, but still Class A) and CDH (Only good win is Edina). I'm not saying AHA isn't good, but they haven't legitimately proven anything. Their record is inflated by their conference (Much like Hill, but Hill did work OOC).

I have no problem with AHA getting the 2 seed in 2AA based on their win over Burnsville, but right now, 22 is about right. You CAN'T lose to Chaska and say you're a top 20 team.

When teams do well in conference play they are called for running up the score, then when they play close games, the team is in question. I would guess that when Holy Angels, or Hill, plays a close conference game they are mixing up lines, playing back up goalie, etc. Yes, they had a bad loss recently, but so did a (top) team they played recently.

My opinion is that they started slow, had a couple things to sort out, got them sorted out, showed they can play by beating a top 3 team and playing others close. Oh well.

BBTB11:

I agree with your analysis regarding AHA and top 20 rankings.

As for the #2 seed in 2AA, I think that's not as clear cut as most make it out to be. With AHA's recent loss to Chaska and Burnsville's conference championship that covers 18 games, AHA's win over Burnsville in late December has lost some luster.

Now, try to convince HSHW, who has yet to respond to my New Prague and section 1A assessment, of your thinking...

If Holy Angels loss to Burnsville has lost luster, then so would the losses that make them not a top 15 team. Take away that game and all those before it and they are probably a top 10 team, if not better.

You are right about New Prague.

[karl(east)]

Karl- please look at the second of your three records listed for each team. If I told you that vs. the top 25, your top 7 teams had records of 9-4-2, 7-5-2, 6-4-2, 6-5-2, 4-3, 3-3-1, and 3-3-1, who would you pick as the number one team? After all, top 15 teams are who you play come tournament time.
Eden Prairie has beaten top 15 teams nine times. That's right Ferris, NINE TIMES. For me, it's tough to argue with that.

As I have said several trillion times over the past few weeks, the Hill ranking is subjective. I realize their record against the top however many teams isn't phenomenal. If I wanted to rank things based on pure who-beats-who logic I would go make a computer program like Lee and Mitch do. I don't. I want to watch the teams, see what they have, how they are coached, etc. And based on that, I think Hill is best-positioned of anyone to win a state title right now. It's just one person's opinion, and I'd never claim I'm remotely close to knowing everything about hockey. But I do know a few things, and this is going to be my opinion...for now. If EP can finally beat Edina, I might make a switch heading into sections. We'll see how those last two big games play out.

What I don't agree with is how high Grand Rapids is ranked. More of half of their games have been played against A teams. And with losses to Duluth East, Eden Prairie, and Hermantown, I just don't understand how they can be in the top 10.

I'd have Grand Rapids in front of BSM because I don't think you can excuse BSM's loss to Spring Lake Park and they struggled with Century who has been beaten by larger margins by Lakeville South, Minnetonka, and Mayo in the same time frame.

Here we have some differing opinions on Grand Rapids, and I think it illustrates the difficulty of ranking a team with a bad schedule. Dan Green says they're playing mostly A teams, which is true, but we can't condemn them just because of their schedule. Yes, East beat them, but the game was a tight one. Since that game, GR hasn't lost, and they have played a few good teams (Moorhead, Bemidji, Cloquet, perhaps Hibbing). They also changed their lines and prioritized depth. They appear to be gathering momentum as they head into the playoffs.

Since then, East has lost three games, two to teams currently ranked behind them, and a third to a team that was behind them at the time. They are not bad losses, but they raise a few doubts. Nor do last-minute wins against sub-.500 teams help the Hounds' cause much. (Had they beaten up Elk River, I would have put them at least one spot higher.) They need to prove their steadiness, and get more consistent production out of people not on the top line. 1-line teams do not win competititve sections. They've shown flashes (such as the Cloquet game), but it hasn't always been there.

I still think East is the team to beat on paper in 7AA. But GR is inspiring a little more confidence at the moment.

I sure hope I'm proven wrong on that one.