Welcome to the 2011 AA section playoffs. This week’s rankings are designed to give us a preview of what’s to come in sections over the next few weeks. I’ll use the same format I did last year; I’ll list the top 25 first, and then give comments on them, and any other teams I feel inclined to comment on, as I go through each section.
1. Hill-Murray (21-3-1)
2. Eden Prairie (18-5-2)
3. Wayzata (18-5-2)
4. Maple Grove (20-3-2)
5. Edina (15-7-2)
6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (21-4)
7. Minnetonka (16-7-2)
8. Duluth East (19-5)
9. Grand Rapids (21-3-1)
10. Apple Valley (18-6-1)
11. Eagan (17-6-2)
12. Burnsville (17-4-4)
13. Bloomington Jefferson (14-8-3)
14. Bemidji (21-2-2)
15. Moorhead (15-7-2)
16. Blaine (17-4-4)
17. White Bear Lake (18-5-2)
18. Lakeville South (14-8-2)
19. Cretin-Derham Hall (13-8-4)
20. Elk River (11-13-1)
21. Centennial (12-11-2)
22. Cloquet (16-9)
23. Roseville (12-8-5)
24. Holy Angels (16-8-1)
25. Stillwater (16-7-2)
Also hovering: Osseo, Roseau, Brainerd, Hastings, St. Cloud Tech.
Here are the sections. The teams are listed in the order they are seeded.
1AA
P-I 2/22 High seed home
QF 2/24 High seed home
SF 2/26 Rochester Rec Center
F 3/4 Rochester Rec Center
1. Lakeville South (18)
-If it was an upset when South went down to North last year, what would it be this year? On paper they’re as sure a pick as Hill. The top line can play with anyone’s, and with a few exceptions they’ve given good teams pretty good games this season--this should easily be the best 1AA entrant at state since Rochester Century took 3rd in 2007. But do they have the depth to run with the elites if and when they get to the X?
2. Lakeville North
-All their hopes lie in an amazing performance by Lindgren
3. Rochester Mayo
4. Rochester John Marshall
5. Farmington
6. Rochester Century
7. Owatonna
8. Dodge County
9. Winona
2AA
QF 2/24 High seed home
SF 2/26 BIG/Braemar
F 3/2 Mariucci
1. Edina (5)
-Nothing came easy for the Hornets during the regular season; they had some questionable results, took a lot of penalties, and suffered some painful injuries. But in the end, they’re still capable of giving any team a great game any night, and if they stay out of the box they’re as good as anyone. The big question here is Everson’s health; after an ugly first period they adjusted to his absence in the EP game, but getting one of the finest d-men in the state back could make the difference as they aim for their 5th straight section title.
2. Burnsville (12)
-After coasting through the SSC for much of the year, the Blaze let up a little at the end, losing to Apple Valley and tying Jefferson. Suddenly they’re no sure thing to be the ones going after Edina in the finals. Need to pull it together, find the scoring touch they had earlier in the year, and get big performances out of Enghum in goal.
3. Bloomington Jefferson (13)
-A very tough team to rank; their hard charge to the finish suggests they could be the highest of the SSC teams. Their improvement over the course of the season is obvious; is it enough to give them a real crack at Edina? Sections have not been kind to the Jaguars in recent years, but this is a new core of stars--less experienced, but also unsaddled by the losses of the past few years. Time to see just how far momentum can carry a team.
4. Holy Angels (24)
-They have a few big wins, including one over Burnsville, and played Edina close. But their close to the season leaves us with more questions and answers, and they will need to find some defense and good special teams play to get through the 2AA minefield. Even the first round game could be a serious challenge.
5. Prior Lake
-Perhaps the most dangerous 5-seed in the state. They’ve probably shown the most improvement over the course of the season of any team. They may not win the section, but ignoring them would be a fatal error.
6. Chanhassen
7. Shakopee
8. Bloomington Kennedy
3AA
P-I 2/22 High seed home
QF 2/24 High seed home
SF 2/26 Coliseum
F 3/3 Coliseum
1. Eagan (11)
-Put up some of the gaudiest scores all year long, but the lumps they took in some of their most important games give me pause. They never could beat SSC rival Burnsville, they won the first meeting against AV but lost the second, and they lost twice to Bloomington Jefferson. They also went out early in sections last year. Can this group get over the hump and let their natural talent take over? We shall see.
2. Apple Valley (10)
-Nothing too flashy down the stretch, but they’ve been steadily getting the job done and look to be in a comfortable place as we head into sections. They didn’t get the top seed that many predicted, but that hasn’t mattered too much with AV teams in the past; they’ve upset the top seed in the section the past two years, and also knocked off #1 AHA back in 06. They know what they’re doing, and with enough contributions from everyone, they’ll be back at the X.
3. Cretin-Derham Hall (19)
-They had their rough patches over the course of the year but picked it up down the stretch, going on a 6-1-1 run starting with the win over Edina. They’ve got a flashy first line that could cause some problems and force an upset; do they have the depth to get two, though?
4. Hastings
5. Woodbury
6. East Ridge
7. Eastview
8. Park (CG)
9. Rosemount
10. Henry Sibley
4AA
QF 2/26 Aldrich
SF 3/2 Coliseum
F 3/4 Coliseum
1. Hill-Murray (1)
-I got halfway through my write-up on Hill, explaining why I’d dropped them to #2 in the face of everything EP has achieved this year, and then wrote “but they’re still my pick for the state title.” And then it hit me--there’s no point in doing subjective rankings if I ignore what I honestly believe. Hill is #1 until someone beats them. They may not be the #1 seed at state, but they are my top choice. Period. Defense, depth, and great coaching wins championships; Hill has all three.
2. White Bear Lake (17)
-Wrapped up the SEC title and put the finishing touches on a fine regular season in the last week; their steadiness is a worthy trait for a team to have as they head into the section playoffs. But to end Hill-Murray hegemony over the section, they’ll need more than steadiness. They’ll need exceptional performances, especially out of that top line, which Hill shut down in their regular season meeting. It’s now or never for the Bears.
3. Stillwater (25)
-The end to their season was not pretty, as they lost to Cloquet, North St. Paul, and Benilde by 4 goals each. But they did enough things right over the course of the year to not condemn themselves completely, and the late season win over WBL shows they could easily make their way to the section final.
4. North St. Paul
-Late season upset of Stillwater will get them a nice seed, but it’s hard to see them being favored in any game they’ll play from here on out.
5. Roseville (23)
-It’s all about defense and goaltending for Roseville. With a lockdown performance they may have a chance against Hill, but nothing will come easy. They won’t be able to tie anyone in sections, either…
6. Tartan
7. Mounds View
8. St. Paul Como Park
5AA
P-I 2/22 High seed home
QF 2/24 or 2/25 Champlin Ice Forum
SF 3/2 Coliseum
F 3/4 Coliseum
1. Maple Grove (4)
-A team built with the right formula; the Crimson rely on depth and defense and have shown themselves to be the class of the NWSC all year long. The favorite status is uncharted territory for them, and they have ties against both Blaine and Centennial on the record, so it won’t be as easy as the gap in the rankings makes it look. If they make it to the X, they’re in great position for a top-4 seed.
2. Blaine (16)
-The season had a few questionable moments, including the tie with Armstrong this past week, but the Bengals got the job done when they needed to, and proved they can have strong showings despite being heavily outshot. They’ve won this section 5 times in a row and know exactly what they’re doing, but they’ve never faced a tougher road to the top over that period.
3. Osseo
-Have done a fine job of beating the teams they’re supposed to, and the two wins over Centennial make it tough to drop them out of the rankings. But they simply have not stuck with the other top teams they’ve played, while the Cougars have. Centennial gets the ranking bump for now. They lost their two meetings to Blaine 4-1 and 4-0.
4. Centennial (22)
-Not a pretty year for a team that’s normally at the head of the pack in 5AA, but they did tie Maple Grove earlier this month, so they still have a pretty good shot at the section. They haven’t been able to break through and win this thing the past few years when they were favorites; maybe now that they’re the underdogs they can turn the tables. They’ll need more offense than what they had during the regular season to do so.
5. Champlin Park
6. Anoka
7. Coon Rapids
8. North Metro
9. Irondale
6AA
QF 2/24 High seed home
SF 2/26 Braemar/BIG
F 3/2 Mariucci
1. Eden Prairie (2)
-A season-ending win over Edina gets an important annoyance off their backs, and very nearly had me putting the Eagles in the top slot. Start to finish no one can match their resume, but there were enough scattered moments of doubt that we can’t do much assuming, particularly in 6AA. The Lake champions have rode Rau all year long, but it’ll take a complete team effort to take home any titles.
2. Wayzata (3)
-Mildly surprised they got the 2-sed over Benilde, but that's of little importance. As with all the Lake teams, the season had its highs and lows, but the Trojans ended things on the right note with a win over Minnetonka. They will have to manage their stars carefully to get the most out of them, while also exploiting the advantages their quality second-tier players offer them. They’re a complete team, but Wayzata doesn’t have a dazzling history in sections.
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6)
-Recovered from the previous week’s stumble by knocking off a couple of decent teams, Totino-Grace and Stillwater. Their schedule makes them harder to judge against the other top teams, but there’s no doubt they can put up plenty of points. Their likely semifinal matchup will make for a great clash of many star players, but does BSM have the depth or the stamina to slip by Wayzata? Their loss to EP was not pretty; can they render that a fluke? There are a lot of questions going forward, but if a couple of the stars put this team on their back and force the other top teams into shootouts, they could have the ingredients for a state title.
4. Minnetonka (7)
-The Skippers faded some down the stretch, going 0-3-1 in their last four meetings against ranked teams. But that tie was against Eden Prairie, proving this section is still theirs for the taking if they can keep up the full team effort they need to bring down two very talented opponents and repeat in 6AA. They rolled 3 good lines for most of the year, but I’d look for the Baskin line to be called upon to carry the load.
5. Hopkins
6. Robbinsdale Armstrong
7. Robbinsdale Cooper
8. Minneapolis
7AA
QF 2/22 High seed home
SF 2/26 Amsoil
F 3/3 Amsoil
1. Duluth East (8)
-Rounded out the regular season with a couple of strong wins. The two-time defending section champs have one of the state’s finest first lines and an above average supporting cast. They face bigger challenges this year than in the past two, but the edge in talent is still on their side. I’m going with my gut and picking the Hounds here. (Shocker, I know.)
2. Grand Rapids (9)
-It’s hard to find too much to critique with the Thunderhawks, who put together a gaudy record and got quality contributions from all classes at all positions. Yet they couldn’t get by DE in the regular season meeting, despite being given every opportunity to do so late in the game. The past few section tournaments have been disappointments for GR; how will they respond to the section tourney tempo?
3. Cloquet (22)
-All over the place towards the end of the season, with some strong wins over Stillwater and Hermantown, and ugly losses to Duluth East and White Bear Lake. The first line has great firepower, but depth and health appear to be concerns. Still, no team is better at the section tourney upset than the Jacks, and they gave likely semifinal opponent GR a tight game in their second meeting. They never can be taken lightly.
4. Elk River (20)
-The record is not pretty, but they gave the top two seeds some pretty good runs, and they have the goalie and team defensive style to steal one here. They can’t let their games turn into shootouts, though.
5. Forest Lake
-A capable five-seed; they have a few very good players, and if enough things go right they could get by Elk River.
6. Andover
7. St. Francis
8. Cambridge
8AA
P-I was 2/19;
QF 2/22 High seed home
SF 2/26 High seed home
F 3/2 Thief River Falls or SCSU or Fargo or Bemidji
1. Bemidji (14)
-No team has been in a better position to break the Moorhead/Roseau duopoly over this section in the recent past. The Jacks’ depth and steadiness allowed them to amass one of the finest records in the state this season. But now that the bright lights of the playoffs are shining down on them and they find themselves in the unlikely role of a favorite, how will they respond? They’re looking for their first trip to the dance since 1986.
2. Moorhead (15)
-The Spuds had a steady season punctuated by two wins over Wayzata and usually respectable showings against many of the state’s top teams. But their inability to beat Bemidji means they’ll like have to face their 8AA nemesis in the semifinals. When Bitzer is on they can beat anyone, but offensive production has been an issue at times.
3. Roseau
-It was a rocky season for the Rams, and big losses to the two teams ahead of them in the past month make for an uphill battle. But they played well down the stretch with wins over Tech and Brainerd, and if they get good goaltending and a little D, they may still be a force to be reckoned with. It would be a mistake to count them out at this point.
4. Brainerd
-Lost all their games to the teams ahead of them, but they were all competitive. If they can turn their section games into shootouts--the sort of game neither Bemidji nor Moorhead is well-equipped for--they have a very real chance of coming out of this section. They do have to get by a decent Tech team first, though.
5. St. Cloud Tech
-The clear 5-seed, but they did beat Roseau and hang with several top teams over the course of the season. Three upsets would be a lot to ask for, but they are capable of at least disrupting the section playoffs.
6. Monticello
7. Buffalo
8. River Lakes
-4 to 3 winers over Becker-Big Lake in the play-in
9. Becker-Big Lake
-Eliminated
A note on state seeding:
1-2: Will be the 6AA champ and Hill, if the Pioneers win their section. The order depends on the 6AA winner: if it’s EP or BSM, they get #1; Tonka would get #2. If it’s Wayzata I’m torn, but I’d lean towards Hill.
3. Edina (tougher road through sections)
4. Maple Grove
Next in line if the above go down:
-The 7AA winner (assuming it’s one of the top two seeds)
-Burnsville, if they get by Edina
-The 3AA champ (again, assuming it’s one of the top two)
-Jefferson, if they win 2AA
I will put out a quick run-through of the teams left standing next week to help along the state seeding debate, but the next set of proper rankings will be the postseason edition. Thanks to everyone for your kind words and constructive comments throughout the season. Go out and enjoy the drama and tension of the section tournaments, and I expect to see many of you in passing at the Xcel Center during the second weekend in March. This is the time of year when the hockey dreams of some are realized, and the dreams of most are broken. Drink it all in.
AA End of Regular Season Rankings and Section Preview, 2011
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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karl(east)
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AA End of Regular Season Rankings and Section Preview, 2011
Last edited by karl(east) on Sun Feb 20, 2011 6:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Probably the reason why we haven't seen his rankings yet. Class A is more of a mess this week than AA (a first this year).starmvp wrote:Seems like I haven't heard from HSHW for a while. I am excited to see how he handles the Class A mayhem.PuckU126 wrote:Hey,
Just noticed you beat HSHW again this week, Karl.
The Puck
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HSHockeyPurist
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Wow, I am a whole lot smarter after reading these rankings and thoughts. Really well done. I think this year's sections holds more promise than any year in recent memory. And this is one of those rare years where I hope the higher seeds win out and there aren't many upsets. A lot of respect for the teams in the 1-2 and sometimes 3 seeds for each section.
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MNHockey75
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Re: AA End of Regular Season Rankings and Section Preview, 2
#2 did beat them. Btw Karl do you think the #1 seed in the tournament goes to the 6AA winner or Hill? Or would it depend on who gets out of 6AA?karl(east) wrote:Hill is #1 until someone beats them.
Last edited by HockeyMN1 on Sun Feb 20, 2011 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
EP two out of three.
2AA caught me off guard with AHA, Jefferson. But Jefferson has been pulling off big wins as of late.starmvp wrote:So very curious here as well... What do you guys think of the section seedings so far?PuckU126 wrote:Karl-
Explain your ER rank. Just curious.
3AA is what I expected and rightfully so.
I am eager to see 4AA's 3-5 seeds. It should be 3. Stilly 4. NSP 5. Rose
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karl(east)
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I've edited in the real seedings for sections 2, 3, and 6, and got the 8AA play-in recorded. No surprises of any magnitude in the section seedings that have come out so far.
ER is high mostly because they have a lot of narrow losses to a lot of very good teams. They also beat a pretty good Osseo team in the last week of the season, and just about everyone else who was in the 20-25 range last week lost or had some sort of bad result. They're steady and capable of an upset if they play well.starmvp wrote:So very curious here as well... What do you guys think of the section seedings so far?PuckU126 wrote:Karl-
Explain your ER rank. Just curious.
I can see that. I guess I am just more baffled by AHA rank. Although they have some bad losses; they do have several quality wins.karl(east) wrote:I've edited in the real seedings for sections 2, 3, and 6, and got the 8AA play-in recorded. No surprises of any magnitude in the section seedings that have come out so far.
ER is high mostly because they have a lot of narrow losses to a lot of very good teams. They also beat a pretty good Osseo team in the last week of the season, and just about everyone else who was in the 20-25 range last week lost or had some sort of bad result. They're steady and capable of an upset if they play well.starmvp wrote:So very curious here as well... What do you guys think of the section seedings so far?PuckU126 wrote:Karl-
Explain your ER rank. Just curious.
The Puck
LGW
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